So one of the main things I was hyped about this coin was that so much Link was going to be locked up in staking, thus driving the price up.
But I don't think that's so anymore. Institutions do not want to be holding huge amounts of a volatile asset, and they will be hedging against Link. They will long and short it and try to keep the price as stable as possible and Link will never be able to reach that high of a price.
I remember back to ASSBLASTER threads and he said Chainlink has the potential to reach $20, and if there is a huge bull market and wide scale adoption and a bubble, maybe $60 by 2025. Have we all been fooled by the 1k EOY meme. I honestly no longer think it's happening. I think Link might go to $2-3 on Mainnet and maybe $5 within a year. But just like the futures market keeps gold down, institutions who hold large amounts of Link for running smart contract nodes will be hedging against Link and keeping the price as stable as possible, thus keeping the price down.
I was going to FOMO in because of this recent pump, but I don't feel like doing it anymore. I am beginning to think that 50 cents is actually really high. If I buy now it might only be a 2x or 3x in a years time. But it will surely dip before then.
This, it's literally dumping right now. Target: 2900 sats
Christopher Ross
OP is probably in the top 1% of Link holders
Juan Gutierrez
I'm not. I've only got a modest stack. If Link turns out to be a meme and I lose it, oh well it was just a few grand. It can be replaced. If I held a seriously large stack of Link I'd be very worried about my investment right now.
The price of Link will literally be suppressed. Anything over $20 is going to be seriously hard to achieve.
Connor Flores
Sigh. Same answer its always been
Live network, adoption, volume, staked link = rewards
High value contracts on the network will mean high token price due to amount of LINK as collateral locked in contracts
Christian Howard
I looked into chainlink and I'm not long-term bullish. I have traded it a little, ridden some pumps, my current position is zero. The chainlink token does not have a good value proposition. Utility tokens are a fairly transparent attempt to escape SEC regulation, and almost all rely on economic fairytales. Chanlink assumes people or companies will want to buy and hold large amounts of a volatile token, but it totally fails to incentivise this. When a smart contract can buy and use a currency in the same transaction, the money velocity goes to infinity and the transactional use case does not hold water. The "staking" use case assumes that huge amounts of real world value will be used to secure oracle requests, which are perhaps the worst example of a transaction to prop up a staking currency since they are many and low value. Only the tiny cost of each individual request need be covered. Since holding a volatile token has a large implied cost, those who offset their stakes with short positions or other hedging can offer larger stakes and lower fees, outcompeting those who do not. The pool of staked link will therefore be almost entirely matched by hedging positions. This all assumes that chainlink does become the dominant oracle provider, which is by no means a sure thing, with competitors and other options (most likely data providers signing data directly) real threats to their model. Oh, and the team holds most of the supply, there's a billion tokens, and an offputting cultish atmosphere. $1000 started as a joke and is now apparently being taken seriously by a fervent cadre of link acolytes. It's a great window into the sunk cost fallacy and economic illiteracy.
Lucas Martin
Stinky linky will be 10 buckies eoy
Elijah Morris
>DELUDED srsly nigga? this shitcoin is worth 50 cents right now lmao
They'll want to hold that "volatile asset" because the more of it they have, the more API requests go through their node and the more money they make. They're not going to be speculating with it.
Matthew Ross
No this is wrong. The collateral wont be the value of the contract. It will only be enough to cover the cost of the call.
We were wrong when we assumed that Link price will be based on it being collateral for high value contracts. Turns out it was just hype.
Gavin Wilson
They still don't want it to be volatile though, they will be hedging against it to make sure it stays as stable as possible. So basically they will start suppressing the price at around $5 and we will be stuck there for possible years.
Just wait until a futures market is opened up for Link, with Link Futures, Link shorting and longing. We are fucked.
Adam Morgan
I have 100k so 20$ would put me to be a multimillionaire. I dont know whats your point. Even 20$ would do 100x return to whos bought at 0,2 so gtfo fuder, try to make such profit in stocks
Noah Gutierrez
lol bro 100K and $10 puts you at a millionaire. What you smoking.
Josiah Powell
NVM can't read, long day.
Jonathan Carter
OP is an omegafaggot
Mason Smith
if $2 to $5 in a YEAR is fud to you it means you are a poorfag pajeet of low intelligence with a tiny little link stack and penis thus your opinion should be immediately discarded. fuck off dumb nigger
Gavin Harris
DISCORD I S C O R D
Joshua White
This. 650 000 000 of this shitcoin can be dumped at any given moment and the value of link will be $0,1 or less. That's when the new blood buy them and start operating nodes with the new cheap ass link for shitty gains but still gains. While you and your $0,5 Link bags will rot forever.
Lmao you just took this FUD from that last retard arguing over semantics...I've never been so sure I'm going to make it. Idk how long its going to take but I'm not selling. I love this board
Brayden Evans
>Chainlink makes a decentralized oracle network Chainlink holds LINK themselves >Thinks they will dump 650k tokens blindly into the market dumping the token
You must be a genius user.
Nicholas Edwards
Of course the collateral won't be equal to the value of the contract. That isn't how insurance works. I told myself I wouldn't invest more in LINK after my 15K and responsibly diversify. I legit should have went all in
Joshua Cook
>Of course the collateral won't be equal to the value of the contract. That isn't how insurance works
this isnt insurance. There isn't a team of actuaries deciding what collateral and risk there is to writing the contract. it's a free market in which contract writers can choose how much "collateral" is required for node operators to accept a job. Each node has a tiny fraction of the total staked link, and if the market will bear the entire value of the contract being staked then that's exactly what will happen. It might not end up being the case, but comparing it to traditional insurance is dumb.
Camden Murphy
If you honestly believe 1000$ is possible you're fucking shit at math.
In this market: 15$ is about the maximum. Not even talking about the 650.000.000 million coins that still need to come in circulation.
Basically every link holder is a newfag who doesn't understand
Wyatt Morris
>inb4 typo error 650 million
Kevin Turner
How much link does sergey hold again?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but even the most conservative of shill estimates would put him above bezos
This thought has thank god kept me from fomoing in last week.
Wrong, AB said singularity it hits $50, then drops and as adoption sets in goes to $150 to $200. Expect some Link to be released soon to further expand the node network, this will keep price down so it isn't expensive to buy in. Once that happens it is vital the price increases significantly. Sergey recently stated he wants Node operators to make lots of money. Link also needs a simplified way to be made available as more tokens are released into circulation, the question is how does this happen?
Joshua Ortiz
Do any other linkies literally draw energy from the hysterical panic of discord swing traders? Every fud shitpost is like a breath of pure oxygen.
Eli Cook
$0.30 EOY and $0.12 by 2020
Angel Flores
$1000 eoy is a meme you retards. I won’t be coming here after Christmas and during January because it will be totally unbearable. Retards seem to actually think $1000 is anything more than a funny joke. But let me tell you what actually will happen: Aeternity is the only oracle ahead of Link on cmc. Aeternity is a shitty mobile dapp oracle and the only they’re ahead of Link is because they have mainnet out. When LINK mainnet drops you can expect it to overtake Aeternity, which will make every link token worth around $1.75. Once the mainnet is mature, after 2-5 years, Link would be worthy of a mcap parellelling XRP. That would make each token worth $50. On top of this, the entire crypto mcap should reach 10% of world GDP within a decade, this is according to official sources. So everything will be inflated. This could push link up to $100.
Then we have to consider that the amount of LINK locked up in nodes needs to have a USD value that is sufficient to protect smart contract creators from malicious nodes. Sergey has talked at length about why financial markets require the most highly secure smart contracts. It’s because they’re dealing with huge sums of money. If your smart contract goes wrong and you lose a million dollars you’re fucked. To eliminate risk on the smart contract creators side, they can shift 100% of that risk onto the node operators by requiring collateral equal to 100% the value of their smart contract. That way, the node operators are incentivised to perform perfectly. Those who require less security can simply request a smaller %. In any case, where the total amount of collateral required exceeds the USD value available in LINK tokens, the token price will rise to meet it. I’m sure you’ve seen the $820 worked example which is based on 10% of the bonds insurance market iirc. This would happen when smart contracts are in widespread use, true adoption. But this won’t be until say 2025 and moonboys will sell by then.
Henry Evans
Exactly... > Buy link today at .50 > link 40x to $20 > OP, “I was scammed”
It will equal the value of the contract in those cases where the contract creators want ZERO risk, i.e. contracts that are very high value where a small mistake would be very serious.
EVEN IF the amount of collateral is only 1% or 10% the value of the smart contract, in cases where the smart contract creator is prepared to take on SOME risk, that’s still an ENORMOUS amount of money, 1% of a trillion or 0.1% of a quadrillion still gives token valuations in the triple figures.
The idea that the collateral required will be a flat rate is a total misunderstanding of the game theory the network is based on. If it were a flat rate (based on say lawyers fees to reverse the faulty transaction - which is retarded because smart contracts are irreversible, but whatever) then node operators could Would have the SAME amount of incentive to behave well for small rewards as large rewards. The node operators need to be incentivised more strongly to behave well for large value smart contracts.
Blake Sanders
Well it’s gotta be at least enough to make an operator want to do a good job. How much would that be? If a node operator is filling multiple requests a day, the income needs to be enough that it’s profitable to run a computer with all costs involved...
Anyways, I think you’re right that if I have a contract for $1,000,000 and I’m asking for 10 nodes’ input, then it doesn’t make sense to ask each node to put up $1,000,000 in value (seems more like 1/10th of the collateral should be put up). Which sorta seems to imply a lesser price for some reason that I can’t right now think of.
1K EOY may very well be a meme but I don’t think LINK will max out at $5 or something low like that. I mean we all know that oracles are a necessary component to these systems, and investors would buy up LINK if they knew the dividend was good and reliable. That itself would drive up the price too.
I’m still thinking a solid return is in our future, and many of us will have many millions.
Aiden Perez
What's the answer to Astrea? It's basically an oracle powered by a bunch of mechanical turk type pajeets that sidesteps a lot of development related to apis since it relies on workers going and looking up the data themselves and inputting it, putting small amounts at stake.
Chainlink has a powerful network effect via the tokens, i.e., people are committed to contributing because they want to see their tokens go up in value, and the chainlink team has a huge war chest, something the academic team at astrea does not. Sergey has almost unprecedented industry connections in traditional finance too. Finally, Astrea doesn't seem to have a well developed adaptor system that allows the oracle pajeets to access APIs that requires authentication or manipulation, limiting it to publicly available information, as well as no good system for writing to other blockchains, like chainlinks core adapters. It also doesn't really seem good for anyone requiring privacy, which SGX and towncrier does since the voters will know exactly what type of data is being queried.
Honestly if Astrea had come out before chainlink and already had a user base, it would be concerning, but as it is, basically an unfunded white paper, it really seems like chainlink will have the upper hand, if it works like it's supposed to.
Sebastian Morgan
>Honestly if Astrea had come out before chainlink and already had a user base, it would be concerning, but as it is, basically an unfunded white paper, it really seems like chainlink will have the upper hand, if it works like it's supposed to.
and to add, you're already seeing so many important ethereum projects coming out and committing to chainlink, not astrea. If Astrea were a real solution to the oracle problem that has a chance of being released and working in the near term, zeppelin would have gone with them. Open Law and Accord and Web3 are all the same way, fuck even Vitalik calling chainlink the toyota of oracles. Astrea if it's built will surely have a place, but so far it seems everyon in the ethereum committing is placing their bets on chainlin, though t it doesn't even really seem like they think it's a bet. It's about as sure of a thing as there is (at least with regards to it being released and ubiquitous, and not necessarily that the tokens will go up astronomically)
Brandon James
What was the point of this post?
Blake Thomas
>Sergey recently stated he wants Node operators to make lots of money.
Where?
Jose Anderson
>Well it’s gotta be at least enough to make an operator want to do a good job. How much would that be? If a node operator is filling multiple requests a day, the income needs to be enough that it’s profitable to run a computer with all costs involved...
I think you’re mixing up collateral and staking rewards. The collateral will be the lump sum required to take on the project, the amount to be forfeited if something goes wrong. This is the stick. The income will be the reward for completing the job. This is the carrot. Both the carrot and the stick will have a positive effect on token price. The stick part means linkies are locked up and out of circulation, plus the amount of collateral available in USD value needs to be sufficient for large value smart contracts, which may require token price increase. The carrot part will increase buying pressure as more people see you can make money from running a chainlink node. Win win for token price.
Jordan Murphy
i meant to post to another thread
Jose Young
Kek these threads bring out all the retards who think they know how collateral will work and that node operators will happily put up 100% of the notional contract value as collateral. I've already got my smartcontracts ready to go to take advantage of these idiots once mainnet is live. Going to be asking for 100 neet nodes to each put up 100% collateral, and then just rake in all the LINK once their nodes don't deliver the data because they haven't set them up properly or they're offline.
Isaiah Hughes
Do you actually believe that?
Jacob Morris
Not looking it up for you but pretty sure he stated that at Web3.
Brandon White
Great arguments here.
But data providers signing their own data isn't a threat, as an oracle is still required. Given that an oracle is required, opting for a pre-existing open-source solution is the logical choice.
Levi Stewart
OK, but if you look at it from a ROI perspective for the node operator why would they spend billions on link to get paid even a few hundred dollars per day for a few API calls relating to a derivative contract. Surely if they had that much capital to put into link it would be better employed elsewhere to get a better return.
I do actually have 10k link. I'm just trying to be realistic and not get carried away with the $1000 EOY/1% of total derivatives market theories.
They won't pay billions, they will pay reasonable amounts, as in $1 to $2 or less. Link starts prematurely pumping additional uncirculated tokens are going to be released. In fact, anticipate the timing of it to happen in conjunction with good news so current investors with bags of Link don't go apeshit. Those tokens need to be available at a nice buy in amount in order to build the network. IMO, this move is coming soon.
Julian Davis
>why would they spend billions on link to get paid even a few hundred dollars per day for a few API calls relating to a derivative contract Sergey will give the big players LINK tokens to “incentivise the network”. So they will have no overheads to set up. I’m sure that is what they meant when they reserved all those tokens to “incentivise the network”.
Bentley Evans
This is stupid. Sergey isn’t going to dump tokens on the market. He’s going to give them to banks etc. So they can run a node and provide their APIs for smart contracts (PSD2!) without having to buy meme tokens or spend any money.
Carson Perry
>might go to $2-3 on Mainnet and maybe $5 within a year. Anyone who can’t make it with these estimates hasn’t been accumulating for the past 2 years at sub 50 cents.
James Smith
They will setup a link faucet so developers and clients can get free link to incentivise the network. I could imagine that they allow everyone to request up to 500 link per day for free.
Samuel Davis
You can expect $25,000 one day. That’s a good return on investment even if you bought the top. Congrats.
Jackson Cox
Banks are going to be nodes?
Joshua Clark
Depends on what making it is to you.. not every can afford to throw 50k or 80k into some obscure project. Most on /biz don’t have 100k+.
LINK probably won’t be worth as much as i thought, but i’ll hold until 2020 or so.
Nathaniel Hughes
Yes, they will have their own nodes on their private Hyperledger network. That's why they can simply fork the link token. They don't need decentralisation, just the tech. That's why they also don't need reputation.
Michael Collins
this fud is literally false but I wont explain it to you because you obviously havent researched enough
Joseph Stewart
TOPKEK
Christopher Bell
Lmao
Caleb Miller
Linktards are the most deluded bagholders in this sub by far.
Chainlink has no adoption and the project is lead by an obese philosophy major who doesn't know how to code. No serious organization will adopt that garbage.
What about when the value of the token fluctuates and the underlying collateral is compromised?
Like, if the contract requires $10k usd as collateral, and link is worth $10k at time of contract creation. Then link tanks to $1k during the course of the contract, so collateral is effectively cut to 1/10th it’s intended value. What do?
Dominic Jones
listen i like shitting on streets as much as the next pajeet but come on. >come >on i mean really. >really?
Isaiah Hall
Read the whitepaper. The token value is fixed to $1 when the mainnet goes live.
Aaron Perez
>I think Link might go to $2-3 on Mainnet and maybe $5 within a year You are right on silly newfag. $1,000 is and always was a meme. Poorfags latched onto it as truth trying to convince themselves they can actually make it with their lunch money investment. I've probably been in LINK longer than 99.9% of this board and I would be absolutely shocked if this hit even $10 in the next few years.
Jackson Gonzalez
Checkmate
Jacob Cruz
This is unironically true. I joined the link discord this week. Delusion everywhere. "I have 1700 LINK, I will buy 27639 BTC when Link moons EOY" The thing is they aren't joking.
Gavin Morales
Those are also the same faggots that sperg out all over Twitter and other social channels making the project look like a joke
