>2014 Bitcoin rose to heights of $1,200 due to years of heightened interest from China. Chinese companies and individuals rabidly bought up BTC and established mining operations in hopes of guarding themselves from their own government/currency. Eventually, the demand from China slowed, sending BTC back to $200.
>2017 Several high fidelity cryptocurrency exchanges arose and gave way to a flood of new retail investors. Retail investors were responsible for driving BTC up to heights of $20,000. Eventually, the supply of new retail investors dwindled, sending BTC back below $4,000.
BTC does not rise and fall due to patterns, and it doesn't rise and fall due to halving schedules. It has historically risen and fallen for explicit and observable reasons. So unless you have a specific catalyst in mind for what will drive interest back into BTC to make it reach heights of $100k+, you may as well just exit the market.
ok you're kind of retarded for thinking that was the catalyst for 2017. What actually happened is ICO money was raised, ETH soared, normies saw the ICO returns, read into "cryptocurrencies", and bought the main and easiest to understand currency, Bitcoin.
Blake Lee
this prolly
Luke Ross
>It has historically risen and fallen for explicit and observable reasons. well done, you only corroborated OP's point. you may have identified a different explicit, observable reason, but nevertheless that's what you did. But you didn't address the point OP was making.
>unless you have a specific catalyst in mind for what will drive interest back into BTC so, putting aside past trends, what do you think will be the next catalyst?
Aiden Price
More like normies didn't trust tether so they had to buy bitcoin to access their shitcoins.
Parker Miller
future catalysts to look out for (non-exhaustive): - staking tokens for dividends - currency crisis in major countries
IMO, the real returns to be had will always be because of Ethereum. You can't have bubbles without a reflexive process, such as the ICO boom. Next reflexive process is probably the demand for staking returns, which will probably cause BTC to rise as well just because more normies will be learning for the first time about "cryptocurrencies".
ETH > BTC in terms of driving the market is the real redpill
Austin Stewart
>well done, you only corroborated OP's point see the post i was typing as you replied
Wyatt Cruz
I got it, thanks for your input.
Easton Moore
Interesting stuff. But staking ETH wont come out for 2 years
Ayden Cruz
to put it clearly: >POS released >m-muh dividends >people buy ETH for dividends, increasing ETH's overall price >dividends are denominated in ETH, therefore dividends also start to increase >more people attracted to this, especially boomers >they buy more boom. bubble. plus also the backdrop of the upcoming financial crises is very very great for crypto desu
Adam Fisher
The catalysts you cited are all just variations of adoption. The question is what will be the next major breakthrough in adoption?
I'd guess the incorporation of blockchain into standard industrial/financial systems. This would likely begin happening in earnest heading into 2021.
That's not mutually exclusive with what I said, retard. Retail investors wouldn't have gotten in nearly as hard if exchanges hadn't been raised and marketed in that timeframe.
Angel Murphy
'Catalysts' are only the best hindsight explanations we can find that represent the macrocosmic oscillations which govern mass human behavior and price. Btc will continue to pump on its macrocosmic hype schedule regardless of what you think the 'catalysts' have to be, and then a year or two later after it crashes again you'll argue with bizraelis about how there will never be any more catalysts like the ones that you have ad hoc'd into a rationalization for the pump and bitcoin will surely stay crashed in spite of halvenings etc. Get over yourself dude, also, halvenings are extremely important for this process as they line up well with significant advances in technology and adoption due to moore's law. Get over yourself and lurk more friend.
Andrew Green
ok who fucking cares if my point doesn't alter yours, let's talk about the next catalyst you dirty whore. we're here to make money
John Parker
I agree. Didn't notice you amended your post by contributing to the topic.
My theory: after a few years of flat movement and a growing perception that BTC has finally been "tamed" and can now function as a form of currency, central banks around the world begin purchasing top cryptocurrencies to hold in their reserves, just as they would hold currencies of other nations. The news of this alone would drive retail demand, while also constricting supply as banks and whales compete to gobble up currencies.
Camden Cooper
Might be the most retarded post on this board. Well done.
Jeremiah Howard
Oracles, niche industry adoption due to cost savings from smart contracts, general usability improvements, legitimate competitors to existing business models (cloud computing/storage, advertising, gig economy jobs etc), increased accceptance of a 'deflationary' paradigm, reduced trust in governments, international conflict. There are too many things happening too slowly to pinpoint obvious 'if this then that' catalysts. It's a lot of working parts. Read Life After Google if you want a glimpse of how insanely massive this all is.
Brody Ward
>says an argument is retarded >offers no argument to support his conclusion What did he mean by this?
Grayson Ross
Specific dapps gain popularity. Mainly gaming and social media. People getting sick of censorship begin a shock and awe style content creation campaign over OOF and crypt based social media. The goal is to make the absolutely most offensive content humanly possible. This will cause a massive schism between old guard social media and crypt right now.
Jow Forums is actually the best place to stage the offensive that sparks such a movement.
Jordan Johnson
Off was supposed to be ipfs lol
Jack Watson
You have the numbers
Easton Ramirez
yeah i have a tendency to split up my posts
I think it's more likely that we'll see central banks make a case for setting up mining operations. To buy up BTC would send their own currencies tumbling desu (since it would imply they think BTC is a valid currency, and BTC's entire existence is anti-central banking and whatnot)
Jaxon Evans
>2014 OP, just want to add, the bull run you are talking about started in March '13. When Cyprus closed the banks & confiscated funds over 100k...Coinmarketcap starts at the end of April... Not saying you are wrong about China.
Nathan Taylor
>give me other reasons to buy because there is no interest in hedging against infinite fiat maddof scheme with the unique decentralized unconfiscatable limited in amount asset at any rate
>(since it would imply they think BTC is a valid currency, and BTC's entire existence is anti-central banking and whatnot)
That would likely be one of the public explanations for wanting hold BTC reserves. Central banks would comment that they could lend oversight and guidance to the market to help keep it stabilized and functioning as a currency. Obviously this is totally counter intuitive to BTC's original function, but it's in line with how corporations will purchase their competition.
I think ETH POS dividends driving up demand is a pretty convincing catalyst. There's also ETFs, which would facilitate demand from retail investors the same way exchanges did in 2017. ETH dividends combined with an ETH ETF would be a very nasty combination.
Josiah Carter
2014 was mt gox pumping the price before exit scam 2017 was tether doing the same thing
Elijah Morales
>Expecting anyone to bother arguing with a retard who unironically believes things go up because things go up XD
Isaiah Thompson
The price went up because the price went up. Price is literally everything. All you have to do is pump bitcoin back to new ATH and we'll get another flood of new people in, mostly those that stayed in the sidelines in 2017.
Joseph Cruz
>ETH dividends combined with an ETH ETF would be a very nasty combination. i'm fucking excited for something like that. it's inevitable, really.
>That would likely be one of the public explanations for wanting hold BTC reserves I can't for the life of me think of how any central bank could efficiently buy BTC in the bulk that they require
Adrian Garcia
We wait for the market to bottom out. Then we fill our bags. The we begin a meme campaign that pushes the censorship resistant aspect of crypto by making content that literally would have got you banned on competing platforms.
That is plenty to get people's attention focused on dapps. We all get fuck rich as fuck.
Owen Sullivan
>I can't for the life of me think of how any central bank could efficiently buy BTC in the bulk that they require OTC of course. Likely directly from large miners or major exchanges. And the true winners would be the company who can convince government institution that they can safeguard their holdings in cold storage.
Jace Gray
this ETH was an absolutely brilliant con, I wish I had known about it before the pump
Juan Lee
they've been buying otc for years
they will go long with the ETF + bakkt pumps now that they crashed the price with (((futures))
Easton Bell
oh true OTC. Completely forgot. Man we're in for a ride either way
Kayden Allen
Isn't it interesting. There are many different possibilities for the rise in price. The only thing which coincided with both suoer-bulls was the halvening. 2021 new ath, sure bet
Wyatt Ortiz
I want to believe you
Dylan Rodriguez
Is Jow Forums getting good again?
Jace Torres
>they will go long
when?
Samuel Cooper
One can only hope
Parker Rogers
When you leave faggot
Daniel Lee
>So unless you have a specific catalyst in mind for what will drive interest back into BTC to make it reach heights of $100k+, you may as well just exit the market. how new are you to crypto bro?
Logan Brown
no
Benjamin Hernandez
>he can't intuit the momentum of technological and social change Sorry for your myopia
Nathan Gutierrez
Normies don't understand Tether and think it is real USD. They merely bought all these shitcoins from the ICO frenzy along with Bitfinex artificially raising prices with Tether.
Nathan Turner
That's me, not pretending to be someone else. posting on the phone.
No, they are all blind and stupid talking about institutional money and hoping for big bank and gobermint gibs. The only true catalyst for crypto in the next bull will be dapps. This is a sour spot for many people because it means POW coins and
And dapps will have to be sold to people by showing that you cant be banned or censored from the social media while still being able to monetize. Start generating content that causes huge amounts of drama. Realize that nobody can censor it. Content continues to come out pushing the bar further and further causing a shit storm of epic proportions.
Attention wont be able to leave crypto as it just decimates the media with endless waves of highly offensive content nobody can do shit about. It sells the product to people as they realize how effective it is at maintaining freedom of speech and it also spawns endless waves of new memes.
The reason I think this obvious angle is not being pushed is because people are desperately looking to dump their BTC bags rather than actually figure out where the technology is going.
Juan Bell
Can someone tell me more about ETH dividends? It means basically mining will stop, and just from holding ETH you can make passive income? When will this happen? Will it certainly happen? How much money could you make? Will it require you to hold a lot of ETH, like is it pointless for poorfags to try to accumulate ETH for this?
Cameron King
>This is a sour spot for many people because it means POW coins and coins that cant run dapps are kinda fucked. They would prefer to keep selling btc like it still matters.
Daniel Brooks
Yes. ETA 2 years. Yes. Probably 5% or less a year (in ETH). 32 ETH seems to be the number floating around but there will probably be pools for those with lower amounts.
Sebastian Brown
>Realize that nobody can censor it. Your gov could declare it illegal, any ISPs that detect activity of this type will report it, you'll then be monitored and get fucked bc it is illegal. Torrents aren't censored but it doesn't mean people never get fucked from them.
>ITT: Eth eternal bag holders have taken over this thread
Henry Jackson
lol, the halving was driving the price while it was determined on the supply side but now it is the demand side determining the price (more like the lack thereof)
It is also the reason why mining price and selling price decoupled not long ago. Sorry but, unless something occurs to actually modify the supply, price movements will be mainly determined by the demand from now on. In other words, either you can think of a reason why more people would want to buy BTC or you might as well sell right now instead of praying that the halvening does anything because it won't.
William Brown
suuuuure mate, the billions tether printed had fuck all to do with, right?
Easton Morgan
>Your gov could declare it illegal, any ISPs that detect activity of this type will report it, you'll then be monitored and get fucked bc it is illegal.
Yeah, that wont happen unless you do actually illegal shit though. I am not talking about that. I am just talking about controversial stuff. If all you do is endlessly trigger the masses with them having no real way to fight back and they have no hope at all to find an attack vector then its plenty.
Jaxson Torres
This...sorry OP youre trying too hard to sound smart
Jacob Campbell
Normies are retail investor actually. Your point certainly is more accurate but the massive greed from normies did pop up the price.
Early 2017-mid 2017 was ICO money + Bitcoin money flowing into Ethereum because of the winklevoss rejection. News of the returns hit the mainstream and normies (since they're slow) looked into it later on in the year, and that was the massive pump. But there would be no pump without the ICO feedback look. I agree though, normies make things more violent
>It means basically mining will stop, and just from holding ETH you can make passive income? Mining == validation. POS will still have validation. instead of investing in super-hardward, you just put the money into a security deposit >holding ETH you can make passive income? you need to stake ETH, meaning you won't have access to the funds for the staking period. But essentially yeah, you get passive income if you do this. >When will this happen? Will it certainly happen? Next 2-3 years, which isn't that long. Yes it will certainly be attempted. It's looking like it will actually work since researchers like Vlad Zamfir have written actual proofs of this which IMO are valid >Will it require you to hold a lot of ETH, like is it pointless for poorfags to try to accumulate ETH for this? The number is 32 ETH, and It's not going to change. Even if you can't accumulate 32 ETH, you can stake with a staking pool. NBD. You won't get as high a return but it won't be terrible and you don't have to be the one to tend to the node all day everyday. Accumulating ETH is unironically the best guaranteed play in crypto. Next would be BTC itself.
did you even read what I said?
-------------------------------------
all in all, boys it's been a pleasure discussing and memeing crypto with you. I will for sure remember this shit for the rest of my life.
Promise me this: if Jow Forums gets shutdown, and Jow Forums get's rich off of LINK and others, we should hire developers to build a Jow Forums-like DApp with something like Storj/Filecoin/Siacoin/IPFS.
Jow Forums literally runs shit. There is power in the NEETs!
We look for reasons after the price movement. Technicals are almost all that matter, technicals "and" (they are the same thing) human mass psychology.
James Turner
Yes because normies in advanced countries will collectively pour 500 billions in a digital currency. You're a moron.
Kevin Lee
Doesn't chainlink also have staking? I know link is meme'd hard but the usecase is a very important one and it has staking.
Benjamin Miller
Crypto is an extremely volatile asset...why would a financial crisis be a good thing for crypto? If anything, during a financial crisis, something as volatile as crypto will probably be the first to tank even harder than it is now.
Aaron Cooper
2020 italy going bankrupt like greece only it's gonna be worse.
Julian Cruz
Isn't the next halving in 2020? Why 2021?
Adam Cruz
Your opinion on a portfolio consisting of btc, eth, link? Should I drop btc and just focus on eth and link?
Dominic Robinson
You say this like it's a bad thing...2 more years of accumulation.
Nathan Ortiz
this.
Dylan Watson
Stablecoins. Buy ETH & DGX, stake in MakerDAO, issue DAI, lend to whales on Compound, use profit to increase CDP position, repeat cycle. Nearly 2% of Eth is now in MakerDAO CDPs doing just this, and once multicollateral drops (meaning we can finally use DGX - the Gold pegged stablecoin) it'll explode further. MakerDAO are also intending to try and find a way to allow Eth staking inside a CDP. Secure store of value, profits etc during a global recession? You tell me user, think that's valuable to anyone?
Jayden Thomas
10 billion worth of fiat can pump the market cap past 1 T
Logan Richardson
i think it was in this order in 2017
1. Bitconnect got normies into the game with 1% daily compound passive income. Bitcoin begins to rise in early 2017 because of this.
2. Normies start seeing insane returns on shitcoins like TRX and XVG in late 2017. They started buying more and more shitcoins via Bitcoin.
3. Normies start seeing insane returns on ICOs in late 2017, and start buying ETH to throw at ICOs. ETH begins to rise in late 2017 because of this.
4. 2018 Bitcoin crash, ETH crash, ICOs crash and normies lose all their money
Caleb Kelly
i agree. normies love passive income. getting money for doing nothing. luv luv luv
ETH staking will start the new bull market once normies find out how much they can make with staking.
Sebastian Morris
What happend
Alexander Adams
OTC
Christian Kelly
Well arent you a bunch of retards, if anyone from central banks is thinking of buying btc, theyre doing it now and will continue as it falls to 1k
Tyler Hill
no that's not exactly what happened
1 btc clearly bottomed in 2015
2 2016 peoples saw eth as btc 2.0+ and bought it with btc rising price for both eth and btc
3 2017 real start of the bull run fuel by the wanacry malware giving media attention to btc
4 in December after btc pumped people started realising all these shitcoin were still super cheap and rising like crazy and bought them
5 btc is super slow and whale need a way out from binance / bitrex to coinbase / bitfinex so the buy eth and eth reach ath ( that was confirmed by the volume of eth transferd from binance to coinbase )
6 not enough buyer to absorb the massive flow of ico/eth/bitcoin whales dumping and everything start dumping > snowball effect as normie quickly start to be in the red and sell
the rest of the moves was dictated by bitmex fucking both long and shorts
Colton Cook
Jow Forums was never good
Gavin Martin
Or just buy a tangible asset of some kind as opposed to the gibberish you just vomited
Jonathan Stewart
protip for you retards when everyone is onto something in trading the contrarian event always happens. Now that everyone and their mothers is following this log memechart all that tells me is that this shit is going DOOOOOOOOWN
>it's another fortune teller makes wild predictions thread
I'll only offer this as a rebuttal: Decentralized exchanges, Dapps, and smart contracts are what's going to bring hype back into the market. That's just conjecture though because I'm aware of the fact that I can't tell the future
Christopher Ramirez
More simply, your just an ETH bag holder
Cameron Barnes
For bitcoin to reach $100k, it has to solve its scaling problem. Every time bitcoin gets more users and the price skyrockets, the fees blow up and nobody uses it, and consequently, everybody starts withdrawing and bitcoin's price is back to square one.
What kind of shitty software LOSES economy of scale?
Parker Morris
Eth lost 95% of its value, cryptoshills are truly delusional.
Andrew Foster
I wish i had an ETH bag I might actually have money then
Henry Moore
Lightning network, BAKKT
Andrew Bailey
Wrapped BTC is the solution.
Tyler Morgan
>unironically using muh china as an argument >calling others morons
>Crypto is an extremely volatile asset...why would a financial crisis be a good thing for crypto? If anything, during a financial crisis, something as volatile as crypto will probably be the first to tank even harder than it is now.
Stable coins are kinda fucking this up in a way though. ETH right now may be one of the greatest stores of value in the world as it has native stablecoin tokens you can swap to on a dex. It feels kind of too good to be true and I wonder if many people have been thinking about this. Its basically the Trezor locked in value meme became fucking true.
Imagine if Gold and Silver had a button built in where nobody can stop you from pushing it at any time to switch between USD vs Gold.
> Ah fuck it I feel like the value is good right here. 25 cent transaction later and...
Crypto is becoming kind of a broken gameplay mechanic.
Zachary Collins
>For bitcoin to reach $100k, it has to solve its scaling problem. Every time bitcoin gets more users and the price skyrockets, the fees blow up and nobody uses it, and consequently, everybody starts withdrawing and bitcoin's price is back to square one.
There is another scaling problem that I think people need to begin paying attention to. When the value of XRP reached 3 dollars the CEO of Ripple become one of the top 5 richest men on earth. Right?
So if Bitcoin goes up to 20k again this jackwad is going to be top 5 richest person on earth again right? Ok, so XRP reaches 5 dollars and now hes what, rich compared to the top 5 richest men to ever live? 10 dollars and this fucker is basically tower over the richest men on earth to a point WHERE THEY ARE NOW FUCKING POOR COMPARED TO HIM.
How Rich does this guy actually need to be? Does it actually seem right to you that this fucking guy will make Bill Gates look like a fucking bum on the side of the street corner? The Brad effect shows that maybe shits not going to really go that much further unless we think its cool to make this one dude that fucking wealthy.
Brad scaling... This is an indication that Bitcoin may not be following the same pattern anymore due to basic realistic expectations. Either that or Brad here is basically going to have enough wealth at his disposal to do god knows what with...
