Buy when it is under the blue line

>buy when it is under the blue line
>sell when it is over the blue line

is this the cheat code biz?

Attached: 1553129131217.png (1142x1171, 189K)

Other urls found in this thread:

reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/88earr/research_paper_on_bitcoin_bubbles_the_bitcoin/
arxiv.org/pdf/1804.06261.pdf
youtu.be/OIamCXZ6CZI
bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2827989.680
delphidigital.io/utxo
reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ai68c1/daily_discussion_monday_january_21_2019/eelp2hw/?context=3
imgur.com/a/7koaG
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

Power-Law user here, ready to drop some mind fucks:

This study an user linked me last night created the pic related log-log plot. The red dashed line is Metacalfe's equation (with y = x ^2) whereas the red solid line is the research team's fit (y = x ^ 1.69).

The linear line allows us to easily determine the equation relating Market Cap and Active Users in power-law form.

Since we know the # of active users on any given day, we can take that data (# of active users Versus time), and use that equation to determine the implied market cap based on the model. See next post.

Attached: metachad.jpg (728x595, 62K)

Black Line - Real Bitcoin Market Cap (USD)
Red Line - Bitcoin Market Cap (USD) based on the model

Metacalfe argued that a network becomes more and more valuable once it becomes more and more adopted (if only 2 ppl had telephones vs the world, 2 ppl had facebook vs the world, 2 ppl had bitcoin vs the world).

Point here is, I am starting to think bitcoin market price is a function of adoption (# of users, transactions, ect). Adoption, is a function of time (s-curve, think facebook tencent). That is why bitcoin price charts for Btc Price Vs Time and Btc Price Vs Adoption looks so strikingly similar. Further, since supply is a function of time, it also explains why Btc Price Vs Current Supply looks so similar to the other two.

See next post for Tencent + Facebook examples.

Attached: metachad2.jpg (1052x775, 140K)

Facebook + Tencent revenue charts Versus MAUs (Monthly Active Users).

This is metacalfe's law. Black dots are real revenue points whereas blue curve is metacalfe's law.

Keep in mind both scales are linear, if you log the y-axis, you will get this shape ().

Attached: fb_ten_revenue.jpg (503x841, 80K)

nice post with numbers and shitty axis.

i'm a brainlet.
just one question:
is $4000 under value or over value?

pls in english doc

Attached: 45988727.jpg (240x232, 7K)

you are doing gods work user

>an user linked me last night
Glad you like it. Found it from here:
>reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/88earr/research_paper_on_bitcoin_bubbles_the_bitcoin/
I’m busy right now but will read your posts later.

Facebook + Tencent growth (MAUs Vs Time)

Following a clear s-curve adoption. Fb is starting to flatten out as it has penetrated a majority of the world.
---------------------
Key Take-Aways:
BTC price is a function of adoption (# of users), whereas adoption (# of users) is a function of time. BTC price vs current supply chart also looks the same as these (), which is why Log BTC Price Vs Current supply looks like this chart ().

I would like to say metacalfe is what gives BTC value, but it seems the scarcity / supply side (halvings) seem to also have an effect here.

Attached: fb_ten_growth.jpg (478x847, 76K)

and btc adoption is still sub 0.1%

well, shit if this hold true, we should be down to maybe 2k. And the number of users oc is not infinite ... what's the market cap according to that predicition for like 10.000.000 users?

So where we at now?

>research study (x^1.68)
Bitcoin should be valued at 5.4 billion total ($307 each)
Ethereum 1.8 billion total ($15 each)

>metacalfe (x^2)
Bitcoin 386 billion marketcap ($22000 each)
Ethereum 90 billion marketcap ($857 each)

All signs point to lots of room left for bitcoin to grow. Bitcoin is a currency with set in stone programmable features that cannot be overridden. Therefore I assume we see a cyclical nature due to it's simplicity.

See image, each moon rally is normalized on it's log height and log time, signifying each rally follows the same universal exponential growth once normalized (price cannot sustain once you reach a certain point of the exponential)

Attached: lastmindfk.jpg (1166x860, 197K)

what faggot document user said but in english:

Attached: 879878234.png (881x266, 198K)

>implying we aren't going to bottom out at $2k soon

This pretty much shows that if you didn't buy in 2012, you will NOT make it unless you already have an expendable (side money) 100,000usd to throw around bigcaps. If you are a zoomer with 500 bucks in BAT, you will not make it; if you dabble with your wagecuck money, 1000 bucks every few months, you will not make it. Get back to the job hunt, stop waiting around thinking you will have magic money in your pockets one day. The events that took place in 2017 will never occur again in this market, BAKKT will only regulate whales to safely dump on you, and when the U.S. economy tanks catalyzing the next world financial crisis, billionaires will NOT seek refuge in your crypto pumping your bags.

Predicting numbers with these models is not very practical in my opinion. Better to understand it like:
Bitcoin hasn't been broken, and there is reason to say it won't anytime soon. Network is getting stronger and stronger, supply inflation is going to get smaller and smaller, so based on all this data, I am willing to wager all of my current full-time jobs salary on BTC this year.

If $2k comes, I welcome it.

Basically implies if you want to make it off BTC alone, you gotta have double digits at the bare minimum right now in 2019

probably one of the best posts we've seen on Jow Forums in a long time. Thanks user.

thanks user

Attached: mfw.jpg (189x181, 8K)

i see a substantial chance for btc to hit $1million within 7 years

Thx buddy was a good read overall, I am generally not a fan of anal model fitting, but they had some gems in there

I believe it overall, curious to see how price reacts to the halving this time, still so much to learn and understand about BTC

Attached: satoshi.png (1097x458, 49K)

I don't believe there's ever been any traded asset in human history that we have a record of that's ever appreciated as much as BTC. Let alone "crashed" multiple times only to retake it's prior high and then some. I don't know what the fuck it is but that fact alone is what makes me so long-term bullish

And then you look at things like the Lindy effect and realize that every day Bitcoin continues to exist is another day you can expect it to exist in the future. And each day the blockchain only grows stronger, puts any kind of 51% attack further out of reach. It's the best example I've ever come up with for Taleb's theory of antifragility, it's literally fucking magic

the market cap needed for that value could exist in the entirety of crypto at some point, but i dont see how it would only be in BTC. 1 million dollar BTC requires about 20 trillion dollars in cap

yes, most shitcoins will go to zero but there will always be a small portion of other coins with relevant enough use cases to take some of BTC's dominance away

fuck you you will never get my heavy bags NEVER. cryptos has smaller marketcap than a fucking apple company does and you can get hundreds of different good projects with a price of used toyota camry. only a retard woudlnt try this out. im buying everything i can, as much as i can.

Well said

Curious myself how dominance will change

Attached: 17702A0E-6A29-43B1-BBA8-6B69287824EE.jpg (2048x1154, 231K)

>Point here is, I am starting to think bitcoin market price is a function of adoption
No shit, sherlock.

Attached: Give this man a cookie.gif (500x281, 472K)

Bitcoin is absolutely going to be worth 500k within a few years. Nothing in this clown world timeline is fictional EXCEPT for bitcoin. And that alone makes 500k a conservative estimate.

Tulips still exist and they went through a bubble.
>it's literally fucking magic
Which is why no investor worth their salt wants it and no normie will touch this thing. Sure they will exploit it while they can, but nobody is seriously investing in internet magic coins.

The tulip bubble wasn't shit compared to bitcoin and they pretty much immediately collapsed forever after. Bitcoin's done that 4 times except it always finds support and breaks to new highs. If it wasn't killed when it was just some mickey mouse network more vulnerable to attacks what the fuck makes you think it will ever be killed now?

>adoption
That’s the keyword huh. I think it’s almost like a religion. You need to convert people’s opinions, get them to accept and practice the concept of modern Yap stones. Think of BTC’s price as a measure of the number and intensity of converts worldwide. If you’re bullish, you’re basically predicting that a stranger on the street accepts BTC as a store of value and is willing to trade with you. Idk, personally I think people’s opinions are too rigid to change. I’ve known BTC for 4 years now, and I still think deep down it’s a volatile pump and dump.

Attached: 4966C253-EFC2-4DC1-9BEC-C0EEAAFA6294.jpg (800x599, 201K)

Because it literally cant be used for anything. Dollars already can buy everything I ever need at every store that exists. Tell me when I can buy groceries (will never happen) and then it wont be joke money.

I think this type of view is incredibly shortsighted. I don't know what in particular the future will hold but I know people tend to overestimate technological impact in the short run but underestimate it in the long term. I'm making the long term bet

>it can't be full global money right now therefore it isn't worth anything
you're jumping to the end of the new paradigm when we are just getting started. see pic related very possible to see within my lifetime a majority of middleclass households running a bitcoin node as matter of daily life.

I wouldn’t call it shortsighted. This is a good real time example of adoption in progress. Remember, the more people converted, the higher the price. The best argument is probably the 1% diversification one.

The best argument is that I would much rather place my trust in sound, provable, visible mathematics versus systems run by deceptive, emotional, self-interested people

What do you think BTC is gonna be EOY and whats your prediction for BTC next bull run? I hear some saying 100k and some saying 200k by EOY 2022-2023

My argument is there are enough greater fools on the sideline as well as oldfags coming back for one more pump.

>I'm part of the 1% in the world and I don't need it, therefore it'll forever be useless.
Tell that to Venezuela where they're literally using it to buy food

propaganda

The best argument is that wallets cannot be frozen like bank accounts therefore enabling money laundering

What part of what I said was false?

Red herring

boomer detected

>sound, provable, visible mathematics

Post purchase rationalization. The math on this thread is horrendous, if you understood economics you'd know. BTC isn't even close to be regulated into mainstream, it's not even a store of value according to central banking laws. It's not about counter-culture or the one percent, it's upholding principles of transparency and rule of law (legal tender) instead of gaming the system or because everyone else does it

red herring how exactly? he said it's useless and it's provably not

>according to central banking laws


You got me there Nouriel

>math on this thread is horrendous
You should let the papers’ authors know that

Venezuela is a straw man argument, the situation isn't the best example of a use case scenario... imagine having a BTC wallet and not being mistaken for some merc

>you can't use anything as money unless 'authorities' say you can
lad, wew

Oh shit they published another paper recently
>arxiv.org/pdf/1804.06261.pdf
I’m

Just devil's advocate to counter balance because of the gullible shilling, in this day and age spider web crawlers scoop the web for big data and the herd of yes men agreeing with each other on this thread are being led by propaganda. Tactics in that area have upped the ante recently

Nvm Didier Sornette is the only author from last paper.
>In summary, we conclude from the bubble analysis that Bitcoin price, although highly volatile and fre- quently dropping sharply, has had the potential to recover from drawdowns in no time, enabling the price to grow to ever higher levels again and again during the past years. This leaves open the question whether the most recent change of regime has introduced a new era to Bitcoin’s market behavior or whether the digital currency will continue its accelerating growth to new heights in the future. Technically, this academic study has gone one step closer to building a set of analytical tools and testing environment towards the real-time build-up of a early warning system of bubbles.

btc will take over golds financial role completely as a way less costly more convenient and predictable supply altrrnative. for start...

youtu.be/OIamCXZ6CZI
bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2827989.680

>imagine having a BTC wallet and not being mistaken for some merc
Strawman

Quality thread anons, thank you all, this is why I still visit Jow Forums despite the constant shilling and scamming

your to stupid to crypto fuck off

Haha fair point that is obvious, finally have a law and data to go with that obvious notion I guess was my point.

Tulips and bitcoin are very very different beasts, with the only resemblance being the pump and dump feature.

Facebook agreed with metacalfes analysis of their valuation based on the change in monthly users. As networked systems become more connected, the network becomes more valued. The pump and dump nature is built into the protocol itself (hard programmed parameters), once the supply diminishes to near nothing is when I expect the intense volatility to die down a bit.

As others anons have said, this isn’t very true

Most people would rather a stable investment. Others like myself are extrapolating based on the data, to understand bitcoin you gotta devote a lot of time before it all makes sense, otherwise it would seem no more secure than even air miles (had a finance guy say that to me)

I personally believe you are thinking a little short sighted. I actually have authored in a few engineering publications myself, and I just want to say most of the math, statistics, tools, and methods employed by the research I summarize here is standard for research. I wouldn’t use any of the models to literally predict, but I can use the overall trends and laws to better my understanding of bitcoins value

I came to biz to get feedback on my thoughts. I thank you for your and everyone’s opinion here, it’s helpful

>once the supply diminishes to near nothing is when I expect the intense volatility to die down a bit.
actually if you do a secondary regression on on top of the metcalfe line, you will notice that the volatility is continuously decreasing (albeit on the log scale, i.e. in terms of %), matching up nicely with the diminishing supply.

another interesting aspect is based solely on the 3 big bull runs, the period seems to be increasing (frequency matches up with the supply curve). so it will be interesting to see whether the next halving actually does trigger another run, or the increase in users hampers the run and the increasing periodic trend of bull runs continues (which would put our next bull run at around 2025)

Interesting, will give it a read tonight

That is what is still confusing me, the confluence of different parameters being related to BTC market cap.

We deduced the following power-law relations (sure there is much more):
1) BTC price with supply
2) BTC price with # of active users
3) BTC price with hash rate / difficulty
4) BTC price with time

Realistically, I think it all boils down to 1), 2) and 3) being functions of time. In terms of where the halving comes into play, it could be a physiological effect causing the market to reverse as smart money buys up the free supply in the market. Once price rises, miners (new and old) ramp up to take advantage of the profitability, and in turn causes the demand / adoption to rise as well.

It is all likely related, but hard to visually observe. Anyhow, let's see how this 3rd halving plays out. IF cycles are indeed getting longer, than at some point the bottom of a cycle will pass it's halving, not sure what this means or if it even is accurate to say.

are you supert?? excellent work if you are.

ive been mulling over the same thing but i am thinking something slightly different. BTC functions purely as supply and demand at the base with the psyc effect on top of that i.e. without the psyc effect (so ideal world) we would see the price only follow metcalfes line exactly at N^2.
so In terms of your 1)~4), I see them as a function of one another, rather than that of an absolute variable like time.
The havling and your 1) falls into supply.
2) would be the demand, or at least an approximation of it.
3) would be a function of both supply and demand. Miners are the primary sellers, but diminishing supply causes them to hodl whereas the cost to cover the bills has the opposite effect
4) would be the psyc effect, the waves that come and go in a reflexivity fashion

regardless, it will be quite interesting to see what happens after the next halving

>smart money
check out UTXO (pic related)
>delphidigital.io/utxo
I think the 3-6m curve works as a proxy for dumb money, 6-12m as average and 1yr+ as the smart money.

Attached: UTXO.png (887x425, 87K)

Not sure who Supert is. Agreed, it seems there are several factors at play here, with all being slightly related.

Interesting you show the UXTOs from Delphi, I took a look at this recently. Image related is BTC price vs Time. I calculated production costs to mine a single BTC by transforming the total hash rate into a wattage value, then multiplying by electricity cost (assumed a dynamic GH/s to W conversion based on literature)(for ref., I took all equations from literature - Hates (2016)). For comparison, I added Delphi's 1-year+ UXTO to try and further understand how the supply and demand operates with respect to miner's.

The UXTO% greater than 1-yr increasing implies more and more people are storing BTC in cold storage for longer periods of time. Since BTC has a value, these people must be aware of this, and the fact that they are storing this value in BTC for extended periods definitely shows the accumulation going on (despite the risks). Either that or people have abandoned the blockchain, but as I said since it has a value I don't think people would just leave this value sitting if they didnt intend to.

Attached: pcost_uxto.png (1370x672, 129K)

Great stuff guys. Everything points to buying as much as you can right now doesn't it?

Attached: scenario.jpg (1917x1055, 799K)

>I think the 3-6m curve works as a proxy for dumb money
Depends on the starting point. 3-6m starting from the bottom of the bubble is the smartest of monies.

Agreed you will need minimum 10 cones to "make it".

Oops forgot to type something...folllowing the 200 and 600 day MA...right now is looking rather good. If we break this lower white line though....it's not pretty....apart from buying when we actually find a double bottom...I hope we see one more push to 3.2k and then see if volume comes in a BIG way....not even sure we will get down there to be honest

That's what I believe

Bitifinex is misleading in the early years, look at this image (), the data I had to make this image defines the early years much better than how Bittifinex shows it. It looks to be linear in your plot but realistically on a log y-axis and linear x-axis, I believe the price is suppose to look like a square-root function instead. The push to $3.2k will come, just unsure if it will be broken. I like to think so, see image related, (DCA'ing regardless)

Technically those investors are the "innovators", but it's all semantics at this point

Attached: bot.jpg (924x1600, 371K)

thats excellent work user. you should definitely try plotting out 3-6m and 6-12m uxto as well as the 1, 2, 3 etc yr uxtos in detail. youll notice a trend that the 3-6m (dumb money proxy) tends to buy on the way down where as the smarter money tends to sell on the way up to the peak, and its a gradient based on how long they hodl which gives a good indication on how various groups of traders, from short term to long term, accumulate and unload.

supert is a plebbit user whos been looking into tx rate, unique addresses, hash rate and price, and building a model off of it. so i assumed it mightve been you
>reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ai68c1/daily_discussion_monday_january_21_2019/eelp2hw/?context=3
>imgur.com/a/7koaG

Regarding the halving effect on price, I see 4 potential scenarios:
1) bullruns happen inbetween halvings on a regular basis (which puts the next peak between 2020 and 2024)
2) the peak frequency decreases along the diminishing supply curve (which puts the next peak at around 2024). pic related, ive tried mapping the next peak one based on the supply curve params and the other on a pseudo-log X scale to have same peak to peak ranges.
3) the time it takes for the halving to take actual effect as well as the hype for it come in to play and there off beats start happening (like the one in 2013, perhaps around the end of this year then a peak a year or two later)

Attached: nextpeak.png (1090x1155, 277K)

TLDR: This is all cool shit, but basically if you ELI5 this faggotry then accumulate and focus on other shit. Crypto is not ded, but looking at these findings its clear that the bull cycle will happen minimum after 2020 and latest at 2024. Thats about 5 years away so the smart play is to work on your own projects and fund some portions into creeeeepto on a monthly basis to DCA and hope (i hate this word) that a bullish cycle happens again.

Attached: 155D0C4F-B489-471D-BD59-A5C04639369E.jpg (657x682, 44K)

Yeah, all you need now is a time machine since that shit ain't gonna work like that in the future lol.

>buy when it is under the blue line
>sell when it is over the blue line
not that simple faggot

Pretty sure people have had this same conversation years ago. Someone in the past said the same thing you just did.

nah. when you already make enough to live a comfortable life, figuring out the underlying mechanism that drives the price is where the fun is at

what do you think happens at pic related?
mining costs more than wheat they mine -> miners shut down -> decrease in sellers -> increase in price?

Attached: 1553256004673 (1).png (1370x672, 142K)

The conversion of GJ/s to wattage is painting a potentially erroneous picture. Initially, during the CPU era, this conversion factor was around 300-500. Currently, the newer ASICS are in the era of 0.22.

I took his data from Hayes (2016), but I personally believe they messed with these values to make it perfectly fit the curve. Their analysis ended in 2016, and I continued it, hence why we may see a discrepancy in the trend.

I think for this plot, since it is effectively impossible to average every miners efficiency, it is better to just look at the overall trend and general magnitude of the production cost.

If we take the data to be 100% accurate, we can suggest it might be because miners don’t care anymore about production costs and just want as much btc as possible, I don’t think this is the case.

The hash rate bubble in this cycle and the previous cycle continued going up even after the price bubble popped, so my theory that the researchers used that conversion factor to shape the model to the price curve could be accurate.

Conclusion: production cost is rising, and will minimum double with each halving, going exponential / parabolic wth hash rate bubbles.

GH/s not GJ/s**

Zing!

Is this saying that the BTC price has never been below either production cost and therefore we're in uncharted territory?
And from that, how do you draw any conclusion?

So how long is it going to take for the price to exceed the cost of production? How long can they keep going at a loss?

I was under the impression that the ones who couldn't afford to had already dropped out, and that was when we saw the miners being sold by the kilo.

The model is predicting a production cost based on the average efficiency of all miner's. Some miner's are more efficient than others, I think the actual data points shouldn't be taken too seriously, but the trend should

What it is saying is that the production cost is almost like a physiological floor for the price. We know BTC moves from periods of overvaluation to undervaluation. It is near impossible to determine the floor because it changes for everyone (Electricity costs also vary in addition to the efficiency difference between miner's), point here is that the production cost increases with time (due to diminishing supply, and crazy hash rate bubbles).

We know overnight May 2020 the production cost will double.