i will legitimately send 0.5 bitcoin to whoever can explain to me why almost all stocks and traded assets repeat pic related pattern on a long enough time frame.
>inb4 le boom and bust meme.
explain to me how exactly people are buying, why they buy and then why they sell and why does the collective buying and selling of hundreds of thousands of people always end up in pic related.
post address with answer.
Other urls found in this thread:
Boom and bust
P. Sherman, 42 Wallaby Way, Sydney
Its all about psychological cycles of greed and fear and the very own cycles of the economy, anything else is fringe bullshit
Hyperinflation showing itself.
buy Resistance and BTC to escape.
Sacred math, chaos theory. You can express everything through math. Check out Williams fractal. If you zoom out or zoom into a river and view it at different angles, you will get the same relation numbers. Stocks is just a mathematical expression of human emotions. Humans are part of the nature. Nature is math. Also inflation. The weakening purchasing power of unlimited asset - money. They keep trying to save stock market and prevent doom with quantitative easing. I know you won't deliver but this is my address.
1NDPLkeiYQxn5XD3McjFiaihS4YYvam4rh
16cM8zndw2ZyGoVQfmdxLU7Hgj4zSLzRCZ
Once a thing is made the creator tells a friend. The friend tells friends, and the exponential growth is observed as the first curve. Max amount of people that can know about the thing is reached, and then the greatest fool buys at max value.
>he's the guy that gets the fanciest car for the biggest loan after it's already not cool anymore
then people start to sell, stop using the thing, or forget about the thing. The 1st downward curve starts
The size of this curve is dependent on how many people there are and how useful the thing is.
once it hits a minimum, you get the bearbones holders who understand what the thing is and still use it. This holds its real value. They start telling friends and the meme spreads again until maximum, and another boomer comes along and buys it for an inflated price even though he doesn't want it, just because it is what people are supposed to do right now.
loop de loop.
"sell high buy low" when most things repeat that it's people making money selling large quantities and people looking at the week graph saying "oh it's cheap lol let me buy some" some things impact it heavier than others (depression>media>whales>losers shilling shit to everyone they can>you and fuck Bitcoin im all in ETH and no one is gonna ever tell me anything IDC if it goes to zero I'll still rock that ETH
The general rule is that the market will always move towards a direction that will screw the most people over with the maximal amount of money possible. As such, when we’re on a boom cycle, people have simply put in too much money and the market is forced to move down and start a just cycle. The same applies vice versa. The market always has to move and it will simply move in the direction with the least amount of resistance.
Unironically, this simple rule is what helped me trade so well. Pic related.
Address:
1LAy3ibyzZ8sR1HT4LwMDb8sfAxVSyCzFp
pic related user
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do" - J.P Morgan
The way our mind works is just fit for things to happen and then not happen and then happen. Like a hearbeat, desu. Even other things like pic related. There is probably some extremely complicated math behind it but there is no way to know for sure, could be anything even stuff like the weather.
14zZufYPcaHfvRUM5HPnq2yXVE3HuTPPG1
Bust cycle*
When the price goes up, people think it will go up more, so they buy, which drives the price higher. Eventually everyone who was interested in buying has bought, so the price stagnates. When this happens people get worried that the price has gotten too high, and that it will crash. So they sell, which crashes the price. Then when everyone had sold the price flattens out and the asset appears cheap, so some will begin to buy again and the process begins again.
1C4fjSvvrdpxUAJTb2Pq8zXbHhdU3oNjx5
Most traders and bots trade based on TA and market trends. When you have a large amount of traders and bots following the same indicators, this is what you get.
TIA user. Here's my BTC address
1DgLwF5LogvQASrFoympS8jABaFkmopFtp
Much like any other animal humans leave distinct patterns behind that resemble structure. That pattern happens to manifest itself using a 3D plane in the fashion of crashing waves. If you take to the 4D plane you’ll find that the pattern actually reflects vibrational tones. Physical manifestations of higher vibrations in perfect harmony. Check out cymatics
Hm. This sounds about right for the first part but the second bit i dont think makes sense.
>Max amount of people that can know about the thing is reached
in theory, can't EVERYONE know about it though? what causes the threshold of "max amount of people".
Interest rates
Watch this:
youtube.com
If you legitamitely seek an answer. Drop a throwaway mail and I'll contact you.
is that Nikola Tesla? sounds a lot like Soros' theory.
>why they buy
>why they sell
>why does it end up collectively like pic related
Realistically it's probably just human nature. Something we all have in common makes us react to stuff in a roundabout similar way when you zoom out far enough so to speak which just so happens to make what we do relatively similar enough for the chart to resemble waves (for whatever reason). If fish had a stock market it would look like rocks
simple. the asset HAS AN ACTUAL VALUE. this value will manifest itself periodically, in spite of counter-moves by speculators, who are aggregated through the law of large numbers into moving as a herd.
pay up.
16N6KCHTHQ7cGYTYvXp4mmNi5svSN6Bh7n
Communication borders and limits of understanding,
I think they do have it figured out already, I mean just think about the goverment having 100 genius doing think tanks figuring out the stock market since 80 years ago.
But there are too many variables
Me spilling coffee on my shirt could make me not buy stock this morning
Because its manipulated by stock brokers. Its illegal but its done all the time. The graph isnt a reliable source of information.
you wanna whats really creepy is that sometimes events happen at key technical points to trigger a down turn or bullish breakaway.
honestly you wont be satisfied with the answer but its the mathematics of the universe,everything has a cycle the moon the stars, everything is inherently based on the golden ratio
3QncviYxdfESNERtWWWLnBoErVMNTgiChy
This will be done on my phone so grammar and run on sentencing might be an issue so plz don't pajeet. I am in no way a financial expert just closely monitor human behavior.
First of all the Virgin spike will be caused by an innovation, need, desire and when these first come about money is not a consideration so early investors take pleasure in their success and the usefulness of their product while people who tag alone for the ride up also have no interest in the money but just to be apart of it. The plunges usually occur to a rival product, mismanagement or social economic factors that create the herd mentality we all see and make money off. The reason the second spike occur is because we root for resilience (hardships rebrand rehire ect) and if the price is low enough, or security of product is established it will again rise. This being said a lot of it is also insider trading we will never understand through employee share packages. Say a company drops 90% but they hire more employees and offer them share plans instead of wage increases. This over time and employee size will take up market shares and outside investors will see confidence. Why don't employees sell off? They see this as nostalgia, being apart of something and retirement. See previous sentence about social economic factors. I.e age, country, econmoic issues.
Hope you're not a faggot.
The price of Bitcoin will eventually flatten out after literally everything is done on chain and everyone is in.
This is a pretty well thought out answer OP
another factor not discussed is the paradox effect. is the pattern controlling people or are people influencing the pattern.
example
you see a stock go up to resistance then it falls to support a few times, then you begin assume it wont go above the resistance so you sell, the sell pressure drops the price and then as it goes to the support you buy again, TA is basically a self fulfilling prophecy that hacks human psychology in pattern recognition.
Also With the introduction of AI and automated systems the problem has become worse or magnified as the programmers have fed the AI their biases on how the market should operate.
so what you have are AIs trading with each other creating a feed back loop of sorts based upon the assume trading patterns of their programmers WHICH is how you get flash crashes.
ex if say a major holder sells a stock in a way that destroys the support, AI programs will initiate cascading sell orders further killing the price,until some pre establish support pattern has been recognized and establish by either the trade desk or the AIs
not true, look at currency markets, even small fluctuations that exist between GBP/USD there are patterns
people behave similarly in similar situations throughout time
Yeah he sounds like a commie sometimes, but hes ironically based.
send
I should have clarified. By comparison to current price movements it'll be flat. After full adoption I'd expect it to be even more stable than gold's price. Considering it fills the function of gold, contracts, data storage and immutability (huge for business), etc
It's easy:
> price starts rising, people buy in
> Price rises quick towards the top, early investors start to cash out, leading to price drop
> new investors fear they will lose money and also sell, many at a loss
> sell pressure goes away, a new bottom forms
>price starts rising again and FOMO hits
>price reaches previous top and people begin to sell thinking history repeats itself, leading to history repeating itself
>repeat infinite times until bottom or top is broken, leading to massive sell off or buying pressure
that's about it.
1Fndu9VkULzTDhwrc1uzxp442fyWp6Fe6Y
Hey OP can you give us a summary of what user sent?
Ding ding ding! Give him his BTC.
Because there are two dimensions?
But what defines the boarders of top and bottom?
>"pls sir must buy new toilet papyrus"
That just shows that people think about nationalism during the winter and don’t during the summer.
This thread is already long enough that you likely won't read this OP, but for those still wondering this question, it can be summed up in a simple sentence:
>Normies are only interested in price
I, and probably many here, experienced this whenever we first heard about Bitcoin,
When I first heard about Bitcoin it was 2013, I recall watching the price run up to crazy highs of 1100 dollars and then slowly watching it bleed out for months until I forgot about it after it reached 400
I remember I simply lost track of the price, lost interest, not that I thought it might be a bad investment, or that it was "dead", but I forgot about it. Full stop.
Then I was lucky enough to get excited again about ethereum right in the beginning of 2017 and rode the bull run of that year with a little more insight this time around.
Ironically normies buy high and sell low by this very same means
They get excited that the price is going up, fomo in, activate every single fallacy their brains can drum up, and then they drop their bags at the first sign of a bear
>whoever can explain to me why almost all stocks and traded assets repeat pic related pattern on a long enough time frame.
What commodity doesnt follow this? Are you really asking why it goes up and down? Can you even draw something different?
You'll buy near the bottom because you think it will go up again once it reaches the bottom, you won't sell near the bottom because you think you'll miss out on the gains by selling the bottom, boom, the bottom is formed at previous low, unless the stock or crypto is absolute dogshit leading to a crash below the last bottom. It's all about ROI on stocks, and mostly hype in crypto. Once it reaches the top, guess what, people start selling fearing a crash, leading to a crash, unless it was a slow and steady rise to the previous top, like we see in the bitcoin bullruns.
fomo and panic
as simple as that
pls check reply
the simpler version is that people follow trends and get tired of trends that have gone on for long enough. this is basically "fashion".
the more complicated answer involves central banks and other big money players that direct the markets to extract wealth out of it.
do the needful sir
I believe its tied with information propagation on makro level.
What humanity is doing is trying to improve transsmision of an information from point a to point b and it is the same for every known system. Money and evertyhing what is believed to act as a money in my opinion is just an information/data determining how good/efficient given algorithm is in solving "life/world-who-we-are-where-we-go-problem" (lets say human work). Than if u connect it with greed and limited rescources in a given time frame (lets say that world we known - earth - is going to end in next 100 mln years, so the only way to survive is to escape the planet, and what do you think people will do? "work together to secure bright future for our mankind like in hollywood movies"? no they will run to closest fire exit. so they will scam u out of money and fly to mars.
From my personal perspetive the most valuable and important thing is time. I believe that we have a given amount of time in which we must do something. this something might be delivering information (what type? dunno) to some place (remember that there was a big bang and from what i understand there is a place where world is still not existing? BB -------(light/world expanding)-----(earth)------>||||||| SOMETHING. i believe that to understand what we are is to see what has been before BB, so we have to reach point where BB has happend OR we have to get to the point where world still "didnt happend", and this is a moment where we start dealing with novelty/adventure/expansion/explorning part of a human nature. I always wondered why after reaching a 5k peak (i did Kazbeg mountian in winter this year over 5k meters and it was fuckin thought) i start to wonder what will i see around corner of the next mountain. ive travelled world around for two years looking for the answers, i want to go to mars with my crypto gains in 2035-2045.
So now we can get back to the market
3A1vFvc7Wth1STsXyggjwYzT2PwFaDFEJp
i am reading everything. What causes the bottom? Why do markets trade sideways at the bottom and not the top?
Why is the initial phase of the crash usually far more violent than any part of the run up? Why does the run up go parabolic while the run "down" dampens in volatility the lower you go?
I understand the FOMO and Fear aspect but it does not explain the intricacies of the questions above.
>Why does the run up go parabolic while the run "down" dampens in volatility
Short liquidations the higher you go, you don't open long positions on a falling knife.
so asfter the theoretical introduction we can get back to the market:
There is a given amount of people taking part in market cycles (yes they r right but they only predict small time frames yet dont explain why we do it, only how). If there is a lag on counterstrike servers why shouldnt there be a lag in a "human-greed-market-server"?. there is. niggers have the worst internet connection (there is a reason why africa is fucked up beyond imagination) and that is why they are sell signal. so those people who are maniuplating the market (goverments: china/usa, mafia, whales, binance/bitfinex etc) are the best at information transsmision, they r finnest of all of us. and there are lowers levels of heriarchy, people who act basing on moves of the people on the upper levels, and lower u go in the pyramid higher lag u get. its like word again:
BB--------(planet A - everything has happend)-------------(earth it will happend but later)----------(niggers in africa)------------|||||DARK LAND
and there comes the cycles that every1 is mentioning: they are just simply a lag in information trsanssmison. at it will be happening till the day we find the answer.
period.
Don't listen to the retarded walls of text desperate for money.
The peaks occur because of the fed raising interest rates when the market pumps too much, causing sudden decline.
Honestly, its human nature and human anticipation.
Imagine it like a self fulfilling prophecy.
In the stock and crypto market, people expect the stock or crypto to do pic related. They expect there to be a peak and a bottom, they expect there to be rising and falling wedges.
So they trade based on that. When new ATH are reached, people anticipate that the "peak" has been reached and sell, and this snowball effect of selling pushes the price down. Then, some more traders see the pattern and the initial mass sell off die down and buy the "bottom" and the initial mass buys where off and etc.
This is also programmed into bots who trade based on these principals, that there will be highs and lows and nothing can 1000x overnight.
For a real honest answer, its people and the self fulfilling prophecy we make about trading stocks and crypto.
BTC - 1E6gP1VjXrDhA5ughUnjQPX7UU7sEH4w31
The real problem is this board is getting infiltrated by institutional spies who are trying to launch themselves as crypto go to guy in these brokerages using your information and experience as leverage for themselves. If hes such a smartass and thinks everything follows his trading lines why does he need explanation. Use your brains there is a lot of shit on this board but gems too - why give it away for free to these guys?
Seriously, time it with historical interest rate cutting. You'll see I'm right.
Basicly because everything works in cycles thus repeating.
Life itself is a cycle and this shows is any aspect of the world if you just zoom in/out enough.
wow interesting, it looks like a heartbeat
humans are stupid and predictable
crazy how 4channel would be the only place you could get these two answers, how many hours would it take reddit to answer with thy?
better start shitposting then so you can get rid of all the useful posts before they see it.
People sell at a price point they determine to be "meaningful", such as "10" or something they can draw a magic line across.
At some point the sellers dissipate and it rallies back toward the magic price point. Rinse and repeat.
These are cycles.
Cycles are prevalent in all aspects of life; they range from the very short-term, like the life cycle of a June bug, which lives only a few days, to the life cycle of a planet, which takes billions of years.
No matter what market you are referring to, all go through the same phases and are cyclical. They rise, peak, dip and then bottom out. When one market cycle is finished, the next one begins.
The problem is that most investors and traders either fail to recognize that markets are cyclical or forget to expect the end of the current market phase. Another significant challenge is that even when you accept the existence of cycles, it is nearly impossible to pick the top or bottom of one. But an understanding of cycles is essential if you want to maximize investment or trading returns. Here are the four major components of a market cycle and how you can recognize them.
3GHfWEZHPPy5KM6UqrkLKvq8iHPQzuSHQi
You forgot the image
At the top, a lot of people want their money, same as it was on the steep way up there. There are enough people at this point, the top, who want to sell, that the market trends slightly downward. All the normies who were already thinking of selling see a slight downward trend and immediately their worry sets in and they just sell "to be safe." And so does everyone else.
At the bottom, most of the normies have sold off at this point. What remains is a split between the laggard normies/boomers who are either selling or hanging in there hoping it'll return up, and the non-normies, who themselves are split between the post-media hype "investors" and the old bagholders from months/years before the spike. The non-normies buy, so that's what makes the line have its upticks. The normies sell, that's what makes it go slightly down. This battle between the opportunist buyers and the pic-related sellers cause the crab line.
1BHMbNPRkD8682w4EnYZnvvb9BQyiofFQu
>There are enough people at this point, the top, who want to sell
*who do sell
My mistake.
Almost as if nationalism is a group survival strategy or something and gets activated in response to environmental stress.
Unthinkable!
Yep. ffs
Humans are not actually conscious in the way we like to think we are. This is all a variation on the theme of
>me like food
>other monkey eat food
>food must be good/safe
>me get food
Then inverted once the selling/divestment starts. Collectively we might as well be a transport protein in some alien god.
The nature of duality. Everything oscillates like a waveform..including human collective emotions. And emotions drive humanity.
It would be a wall of text about feelings if you asked on Reddit
Forgot my address. Even .005 bitcoin ia fine. Just want to bitmex yolo for the first time. bc1qg2ddcxktz70hu92q6rkvjwm2kvmyfzvqrlhq4q
If there was a way to incentivize quality threads on Jow Forums without turning it into reddit that would be p. cool desu senpai
Give him his btc
This guy deserves BTC
If anyone told you the answer you wouldn't believe them.
Triple top because money printing and institutional buy backs. When credit dries up due to higher federal funds rate, we're in for something scary.
1EV6SYzpNoRLscL5yW6NuytSGy5eqky6z5
If you look from an investor point of view you try to achieve max. return. Thus you have to constantly value your assets today, compared to how they will perform in future x. "The market" when it performs well and is in its final stage, prices in a value under exponential growth. exponential growth is not compatible with reality. Even as the wealthiest person you still have costs running (intrinsic human needs) that destroy the continuation of an exponential growth. Therefore it has to collapse at some point and the investor that relies on value x, quickly reallocates their investment or goes bankrupt. The market is oversaturated and doesnt reflect real economic growth. Humans have needs and need to secure them under any circumstances.
Nah dude it's probably students doing homework or something
sent you an email user
1JEX2G9sj5W6AexTUXjFZnXcu5Fe6gjpGV
initial answer
product life cycles, adoption curves and corresponding cause-effect relationship to earnings, which impacts “fundamentals” for stocks
look up
wyckoffian logic and reflexivity too
then i reread and understood the question better
1. how people are buying, why the y buy and why they sell
i think you need to breakdown the market participants into two players,
institutional players and retail
People buy or sell based on different criteria, be it “fundamentals”, “technicals/memelines”, or sentiment.
But ultimately, they buy simply because they think they can get out at a higher price and sell or short when they think they can rebuy lower.
I initially thought same can be said for the collective , it’s all just an aggregate of all the small players, but then if you think about it long and hard enough, you realise that a person with 1k won’t impact the market with the same magnitude with a person/institution that has 1M and that the latter can effectively control the price by rigging the orderbook (like a marketmaker)
Institutions supposedly control the market and create
accumulation
markups
markdowns
and distribution at will
there’s a lot more to the topic desu
stop hunts, “engineering liquidity” etc.
feel free to send me a dm after sending .5btc
i can send related links
George #0770
people are patterns. they follow the same patterns over time. makes sense i guess? could be external forces. idk bruh
tldr: free money isn't free. op won't ever send $4000 to somebody for answering some question hahaha. if you believe that, they you prove that people are barely conscious and so thats why patterns are destined to repeat. because people just do what they are told and what other people do.
also
take note
price at T1 (today, or this week) is a function of interest which is in some sense, a function of price at T0 (e.g yesterday, or last week) among other things
people buy btc
Because the crowd does not act together, and can not greatly influence the market. If you do not repeat the main pattern, the participant will lose money.
Smart money move the market.
There are also distribution accumulation schemes.
Accordingly, there is a main driving force - smart huge money.
For which this template is very profitable, and it manages it easily.
Everyone else is trying to follow the trend and support it.
1FyoKMNiRad6i96uJAywDE7JmpgghHPcwT
seriously OP,
just read my answer
anyways
I’m out for now, gtg sleep and wake up in 5 hours for an 8hr drive
feel free to shoot me a dm and I’ll get back to you asap
Fractional reserve lending in the banking system directly causes the business cycle. Basically banks expand credit faster than capital is naturally created via the capital formation process on the free market (people create value then delay consumption. savings results which can be deployed as investment...). This "false" capital fools entrepreneurs into thinking that there is more capital available so they take more risk and create too many new businesses. When they inevitably fail a chain reaction occurs because they can't pay their suppliers and they have to lay off people, etc. This is the bust part of the cycle. Additionally people are naturally driven by fear and greed so these emotions exacerbate the business cycle in the capital markets. Does that answer your question?
15XPdXoHCrvdbW45De3965joMB5iCokZ5h
based
wyckoff and soros were influential to my understanding of financial markets too