2020 thread

2020 thread

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It's gonna be a massacre.

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>CA, NY, MA light blue
>Trump gaining electoral votes
It'll be close either way, but the democrats have a clear advantage

Here's Senate

All we need is a muddrop on Biden.
It will be Biden who will run against Trump.
Assuming the DNC plays by the rules and nominates Sanders and we may find SJWs within our ranks. I don't know how he did it, but that guy is even less popular than Trump with the SJWs
And there will be a drop on Biden. They already have difficulties hiding his shady past with girls. It's an open secret at this point. All there needs to be done is that one straw that breaks the camel's back at the right time.

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None of that will matter, massive boomer dieoffs in important swing states + censorship + nigger floods ensure Democrat victory

Here's House

Have faith.
Trust in meme magic

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>democrats have a clear advantage
didn't realize the democrats were also running an incumbent in a good economy

And finally Governors.

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Anybody who puts states that are Pacific, New England, New York, Minnesota, or Illinois are retarded.
These states almost ALWAYS vote left.

*Ahem*

DONDE SITA LA MAMASITA?

* massive applause*

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Except they don't.
The party is still in a schism between the establishment dems and the socialists.
There's low enthusiasm for the establishment among younger dems, Trump still holds a spotlight in the media that gives him unlimited publicity.

MN, NH, and Maine were all less than 4 points last time

Minnesota was very close to going Trump last time. It'd be impressive to see it flip.

MN literally just elected a Muslim representative.
You think that they're going red?

thread/

That was in Minneapolis, which could get outweighed by the countryside if turnout is high enough. She was NOT elected statewide

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Maybe, but the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metro has a little over half of the state's population.
Then there are probably a few major democrat cities with 50k+ people.
I just doubt that this will be the election that flips Minnesota, especially considering that one of the Democrat nominies is from that Eskimo shit hole.

>this won't be the actual 2020 outcome
look at these rubes

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If the Minnesota woman isn't on the ballot, Trump wins Minnesota

retard nigger, you actually have the dems winning? What a retard nigger.

Nice goalpost shifting, migapede

Small margins and that was with record low dem voter turn out.

I don't need a map to tell you were fucked
Check'em

I think Michigan will be red with Iowa and Wisconsin, but Florida and Pennsylvania will be blue

And Pennsylvania very often goes blue in Presidential elections. What happened in 2016?

This model assumes Biden is the nominee.

Left is the best the Biden can do
Right is the best Trump can do
Center is what I strongly think would happen if the election were held today

First things first. Anyone that tells you this is shaping up to be a blowout, for either side, should not be given much credibility. Electorally this will be a relatively close election. Democrats will almost certainly hold the house since this is another referrendum election on Trump and he remains unpopular with most Americans, including independents. Republicans will probably hold the Senate and maybe even increase their lead by a seat or two again. Biden will probably win the popular vote although possibly fall short of an absolute majority (this will be a problem if Trump wins because the electoral collage would officially be squarely on the top of the Dems shit list, but that's a conversation for another thread)

Let's look at some states Trump carried in 2016
>Pennsylvania
Biden is from PA. That state is gone.
>Michigan
This was one of the closest states and Biden has better support with the working class than Hillary. It likely returns blue
I am willing to hear arguments from anyone saying that these two will stay Red. But the midterms were a slaughter there for the GOP.

The only state I'm not sure about is Virginia. The Democratic leadership has had a bad image there lately but I think the state was pretty solidly blue before that, so I'd say it's a toss up. I'm willing to hear from anyone in the state, but I still think the Arlington area might have too much control to overcome.

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That's it. Don't even worry about voting Dems, it's all wrapped up.

checked and the one wild card in this entire thing are the blue states who have given over their electoral college votes to popular vote winner. Obviously that swings in Trumps favor but also obviously they'll also fight it once they lose what a bunch of fucking retards

No one is buying it, satan.
Nobody believes msm polls anymore

No we won’t. Florida will be red. Tight and close, but red

So if I don't outright admit Trump has the advantage (he doesn't) then I'm a shill?
Trump won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote by almost 3 million votes because he ran against an almost equally unlikable candidate who ran a historically terrible campaign. Biden is, while not the most adored person ever by any means, considerably more popular than Hillary was. He is also from the section of the country that gave Trump the election by an extremely narrow margin and you can be sure the dems know to actively campaign there now (Hillary didn't even visit Wisconsin once)

How is he more popular though? He literally couldn't crack the top five in the Democrat primary. He doesn't appeal to any particular group in the democrat base that Trump hasn't already locked down.
Idk I still see Kamala winning the Dnc and getting her ass kicked in the general. Could be wrong obviously and btw I never called you a shill, funny that you assume I did.

>good economy

It's no different than Obama's economy. Lots of low wage retail jobs.

>How is he more popular though? He literally couldn't crack the top five in the Democrat primary.
He is by far the favorite among Democrats right now.
>He doesn't appeal to any particular group in the democrat base that Trump hasn't already locked down.
The problem for Trump is his locked down supporters are a solid 40ish percent of the country. That's more than the MSM says (they say it's as low as 20%) but it's still far from enough to win an election on their own. Outside of Ohio and Indiana (which is more due to Pence than Trump) the rust belt is not locked down. Trump won PA, WI, and MI by extremely slim margins. Biden is from PA, so that's gone. Hillary didn't ever go to WI, so that's not a safe bet because Biden won't make that mistake. And Michigan was the closest of those 3. All 3 of those states went heavily heavily blue in the midterms.
>Idk I still see Kamala winning the Dnc and getting her ass kicked in the general. Could be wrong obviously and btw I never called you a shill, funny that you assume I did.
Ok well I'll absolutely agree with you that if Harris somehow gets the nomination, Trump has the edge. I just don't see that happening. The democratic party is overall less left-wing than a lot of people here think it is, it's just that's the loudest and most enthusiastic part of it currently. We saw this in the midterms where middle-of-the-road dems won in large numbers, even in traditionally red states (Kristen Sinema in Arizona is a good example. She's the first ever openly bisexual female senator but she still votes with Trump's agenda roughly 60% of the time) but the further left candidates actually lost in states LIKE Florida. I think Americans like centrist candidates. We will have to see. Harris isn't a centrist. She's far left. Someone like Gabbard though I think would kill Trump. Harris is on the debate stage tonight.