This model assumes Biden is the nominee. I understand that's not a complete certainty, but as of now he's leading the pack by quite a bit and is the favorite.
Left is the best the Biden can do Right is the best Trump can do Center is what I strongly think would happen if the election were held today
First things first. Anyone that tells you this is shaping up to be a blowout, for either side, should not be given much credibility. Electorally this will be a relatively close election. Democrats will almost certainly hold the house since this is another referrendum election on Trump and he remains unpopular with most Americans, including independents. Republicans will probably hold the Senate and maybe even increase their lead by a seat or two again. Biden will probably win the popular vote although possibly fall short of an absolute majority (this will be a problem if Trump wins because the electoral collage would officially be squarely on the top of the Dems shit list, but that's a conversation for another thread)
Let's look at some states Trump carried in 2016 >Pennsylvania Biden is from PA. That state is gone. >Michigan This was one of the closest states and Biden has better support with the working class than Hillary. It likely returns blue I am willing to hear arguments from anyone saying that these two will stay Red. But the midterms were a slaughter there for the GOP.
The only state I'm not sure about is Virginia. The Democratic leadership has had a bad image there lately but I think the state was pretty solidly blue before that, so I'd say it's a toss up. I'm willing to hear from anyone in the state, but I still think the Arlington area might have too much control to overcome.
even with the scandals, the flip necessary to turn VA red would be pretty unprecidented. I said in 2016 that whoever won the election would cause more long term damage to their party and I'm sticking with that. Trump and Hillary were always destined to be 1-term presidents at best. The only silver linings here for Republicans are that 1. if it is Biden, he will only do one turn, so they will get another chance in 2024 and 2. Republicans will likely hold onto the Senate even if Collins loses in Maine (which I don't think she will) so that will keep Biden from nominating far left Judges.
Mason Diaz
A left wing candidate can't win Arizona Besides that you have good predictions though.
Jayden Price
Trump wins case closed
Michael Wilson
>Australia sure thing
Landon Sanders
I love how dems say the EC gives them a disadvantage when that's not even close to the truth
James Fisher
PA might resent him
Ian Clark
If the Republicans have a modicum of political acumen, those rustbelt numbers will decline drastically for Biden once the general begins. He hasn't even debated yet and already he's said we need to "tear down white man's culture". Put that it an attack ad (along with the rest of the alienating and lunatic shit he'll do over the course of this primary) and beam it onto Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. We'll see how the white working class likes Uncle Joe then.
Aaron Long
that would be a huge plus for Trump but I guess it really depends on how far the left pushes Biden in the primaries
Robert Walker
Texas will go blue nobody believes it but demographics are destiny and there are no "based mexicans" the only based spics that vote for the right are cubans and there's no massive influx of cubans to texas. Probably not in 2020 even though Ted Cruz almost lost to fake beaner just because of bean votes but by 2024 of 2028 texas will be blue and that's it GG. You have that long to pepper your angus.
Luis Diaz
Also what would it take for trump or the gop to win the New England states
Hunter Gray
>Texas will go blue Worst case scenario is the GOP has to start actually fundraising there. Trump is more popular then Cruz.
Gavin Stewart
Clinton only won Virginia by 5.3 points. Given the implosion of the democrats there and the Trump's incumbency I'd say that's pretty surmountable, especially if there's no Virginian on the Democrat ticket like in 2016.
Benjamin Garcia
>Massachusetts Impossible >Rhode Island Impossible >Vermont Impossible >New Hampshire Unlikely. He came close last time but New Hampshire has a reputation for being extremely anti-status quo and like it or not that's Trump now. >Conneticutt Unlikely. He could pour a shit ton or resources there and maybe put it in play but it'a not worth taking resources from elsewhere. >Maine Possible, and he will get the second district again (Maine splits up his votes) but he would have to work in tandem with Collins to a T to get the majority of the state and they don't even agree on most things.
Nathaniel Carter
VA will probably be closer but 5.3 is a big swing
Leo Campbell
now do it again for Warren as she will be the nominee, Biden is just the fall guy
Ryder Ramirez
Obama won Michigan by 9.3 points in 2012 and Trump won it in 2016. The state Virginia Democrats' scandals, Trump's incumbency, the lack of a Virginian on the ticket and in all probability a deeply damaged Democratic candidate *could* be enough to take it.
Josiah Miller
I guess
Caleb Hughes
Warren would lose but she won't be the nominee for that reason
Hudson Powell
This is a pretty reasonable prediction.
I think things will get very different after the nomination though. Trump has a way socially diminishing his opponents and Biden will not leave unscathed.
Here is a poll from around this time in the last election cycle. Notice how everyone thought Hillary was way ahead? Same applies to this election, if not moreso.
i predict your mother is fat and fucks someone other than ur dad for sport, faggot
Jose Bennett
If Bernie became the nominee most big money donors would leave the Democrat party, Howard Shultz would probably set up a third party run, and the full force of the banks, media and military would combine against him. He'd also probably be accused of pedophilia or assassinated. They don't want Bernie to become President. He threatens the real rulers of the US far more than Trump ever did.
Asher Wood
My mother died last year user. You're wrong. See you on the killing field.
Luis Ortiz
burger votecucking is not Jow Forums, it is politically correct. Both parties are the same. Both ziodem and neocohen candidates are controlled. Take it to please. You will be happy there and Jow Forums will be happier without you here
Deciding on which burger politician to votecuck for is not politically incorrect, it is semitically correct. Take it to please. You will be happy there and Jow Forums will be happier without you here.
Amerishat politics are semitically correct, not politically incorrect. Take this shit to please You will be happy there, Jow Forums will be happier without you here.
How do you think Hitler came to power you mental midget
Jeremiah Myers
Well done OP bump for a well formulated Jow Forums thread, I mean good job faggot.
Henry Bailey
Trump is going to win the popular vote (just barely) and flip the previously blue "popular vote initiative" states red leading to an electoral blowout and the most epic chimpout you've ever seen. It will be glorious.
Evan Carter
>implying Bernie would have the power and integrity to make good on his outlandish promises
Sanders is still a jew at the end of the day and he would immediately betray his voters after day 1 of his presidency. And even if he wants to do shit, he would face more party opposition and judge opposition than even Trump ever did, Bernie could not accomplish jack shit
Blake Wright
The system is rigged. Trump told you that in 2016.
Caleb Martin
>Trump is going to win the popular vote (just barely) and flip the previously blue "popular vote initiative" states red leading to an electoral blowout and the most epic chimpout you've ever seen. It will be glorious. Why does nobody on this board understand how this provision works? It only kicks in if they have enough states signed on to equal 270 or more votes. It doesn't matter right now
Luis Walker
sorry about your Mom
Jayden Campbell
Her death only fueled my murderous rage.
Eli Jackson
>How
He came to power in a society primed by war, famine and sanctions. Furthermore, it was a country that was good at the core/bottom, ripe for becoming united and national. Weimar was mostly only corrupt at the jewish top. It was just a matter of removing the parasite, and the folk would flourish. More importantly though, Hitler came to power with the support of millions and millions of competent out-of-work soldiers ready to sacrifice what little they had left (nothing) for the hope of a future, any future.
Burgerland is the complete opposite in almost every way >Burgerland is a society pacified and pussified by materialism, hedonism, excess and cuckstianity. There is no need for anyone to act. >Burgerland has no unity, it is not founded upon one ethnicity of Europeans. Barely even half of them are even European >Burgerland is not occupied by semites, it is semitic through and through. The people love the degeneracy. They love materialism. They love porn. They love stuffing their faces with food. They love doing nothing in front of the TV. And they love welfare. Voting is all they are capable, doing anything politically more than a few hours every 4th year is much to much to ask of them both mentally, physically and spiritually - and even if it was not - why should they bother? They have all they need, and the belief they are the best country in the world which pacifies the burgers even further. >And lastly, burgerland does not have millions and millions of competent out-of-work soldiers. Few of them are competent to begin with, being the dregs of the negro and spic slums, and the rest guided to suicide or inaction by now expert teams of propagandists/psychologists after they are done killing for occupied palestine
There is no hope in the democratic system, least of all for a country that is semitic through and through. You don't have a "Zionist Occupied Government", you have Semite Occupied Souls. Waste no hope on the ballot box, it contains none
Since it's inevitable after last night's debate that someone totally unelectable that panders to the illegals and completely ignores the moderate swing state voters is going up against Trump...
forgive him user, hes been playing too much degrees of lewdity
Nolan Wright
sorry user but VA is fucking lost
Blake Walker
Is the US the only Country where race pandering exists? I was laughing my ass off when I started seeing democrats in the debates speaking Spanish, literally what the flying fuck has the US turned into
Jace Martin
the entire point of America is it's not a country with a natural ethnicity, but rather one where anyone can get what they're worth if they work hard enough
Chase Young
>work hard enough
Nigger, are you being serious right now? You'd rather take in spics and niggers with no merit than any European with merit.
I probably line up with you on a lot of the issues, particularly economically and morally, but I don't have the xenophobic tendencies that a lot of Jow Forumstards do. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe non-whites really will end us. If they do, I'll admit I was wrong, but right now I'm not willing to go down that path.
Aaron Lee
>people searching to learn more about a candidate >New Jersey searched to learn about Cory Booker isn't he from there? what?
Thomas Jackson
also not bad OP. I'm going to repost this map a later with maybe less text.
Jose Gomez
yeah that makes sense also here are the searches before the debate
