/Peter Zeihan General/

He's hopeful about the US and pessimistic about the rest of the world. He fails to observe the social trends within the US that seem to be pushing us towards domestic low-intensity conflict along cultural and ethnic lines. If he's wrong about the US and we start to break apart, the one stable country in Zeihan's future will instead be an anchor dragging the rest of the world further down with it.

Attached: the_ride_never_ends.jpg (456x546, 40K)

He's stating many obvious things.

That's actually some pretty good analysis.

Attached: zeihan tweet.png (623x520, 275K)

He's been correct so far on the broad strokes, which is what he openly says is all he's going for. The one thing he's most iffy about is timing, because so many different things can accelerate or decelerate an obvious trend.

USA is also NOT white

the Zeihan meme does not take into account THE GRAPH

Attached: clubofrome-limitsofgrowth.jpg (631x517, 103K)

He actually does. In one of the videos already posted, he said the Earth will never have 10 Billion people.

and this is what will happen because zeihan sees populations as interchangeable economic units.

>malthusian bullshit
k bud. Not like that's been decisively proven wrong at least six or seven times in the past century.

Most population statisticians figure it's closer to 11 billion. Projected birth and death rates like to trend to around that range.

>no shale revolution
If oil is declining then why its price has being confined between 50 - 70 dollars a barrel instead of skyrocketing to 100 dollars from where it fell back in 2014?

The major threat to the economy is politics, not any of those things you mention.

That's all the elite sees us as, and most of our people agree with them. If civil war comes to America, even if the right does come out on top, unless they reject the idea that people are interchangeable "blank slates" then we will inevitably descend into war again a few decades later. The battle for the minds of the Western people must be won before any lasting change can occur.

>He talks about Harry Dexter White unironically, without mentioning that he was a literal soviet agent
He has some interesting thoughts and predictions, many of which are quite reasonable. However, the worldview of a race-denier is inevitably going to have massive blindspots. I made it near the end of his most recent book and he starts going full cringe when he talks about illegal immigrants -- how there's no way we could actually stop illegal immigration unless we deployed the military, etc. He briefly hinted at all the positive things that immigrants bring, too. Such bluepilled trash.
I think he's a true believer. Pretty sure he's a fag, which makes it even more likely.
Agreed.

The "Guns, Germs, and Steel"-esque focus on geography and egalitarian views on race (demographics) doom his analysis. Even with those things, it's impossible to deny that race and ideology are extremely important. Even if you think race isn't real, what does he think is going to happen if Europe becomes filled with niggers at the exact time everything falls apart? He seems to assume that this will all be channeled outward (i.e., European countries fighting each other or other nations), but I would argue that it's more likely to result in massive civil conflict.

And in the U.S., it's awfully naive to assume that we're just going to stop being the enforcers of the neoliberal order just because it's against our interests. Trump is literally the only politician who expressed that sentiment, and look how much resistance he's getting.

>And in the U.S., it's awfully naive to assume that we're just going to stop being the enforcers of the neoliberal order just because it's against our interests. Trump is literally the only politician who expressed that sentiment, and look how much resistance he's getting.
He believes Trump is the start of a new trend in US politics where the US alternately operates under parties that enthusiastically embrace or begrudgingly acquiesce to a less directly interventionalistic and more self-serving foreign policy. The chaos we're seeing in the GOP and Democratic establishments right now is another sign that the shift to a new status quo is ongoing.

Which of his books are worth reading first, the Absent or Accidental superpower? Also anything on modern China and its thread? There is one about China and Australia but I dont know how good it is.

except for the part where he argues that shale, which is currently petering out (unless more is found) will allow the US to maintain a fully functioning economy into the next several decades... which means he is assuming the gravy train will continue

>predictions on time have been wrong, therefore the prediction itself will never happen
>we havent run out of resources yet, therefore we will never run out resources

what is it like to be this low IQ?

>>Russia's die off is already begun, and it's military is preparing to take resources and land by force in western Europe.

Zeihan is always wrong.

Before 2014 he claimed that Russia was powerless to help Assad and that Russia was going to cease to exist by 2018, then after 2016 he started claiming that Russia will start invading other nations and that they will do anything to survive.

Zeihan is an opportunist.

A nation that receives 2 MILLION immigrants per year will never disappear.

Attached: chart111771.jpg (1360x1172, 166K)

Malthusianism assumes a steady-state, that we will never find alternatives to existing methods of accessing something we need to either maintain or grow our population. For example, Malthus thought that eventually we would hit a barrier on how much food we could produce, and then there would be vicious wars, conflict, and famine. Unfortunately for his prediction, the Haber process (artificial nitrogen fixing) was discovered and the old paradigm for farming was completely upended.
This has repeated itself numerous times in numerous fields critical to human civilization. Where there's a will, there's a way (especially if the laws of physics don't preclude an alternative).

>he aggressively glosses over the impact of social trends that accompany the huge demographic shifts he's forecasting

This. Zeihan has good foresight on a lot of things but he refuses to acknowledge that races aren't just blank slatest you can program with culture. When it comes to demographics he looks almost exclusively at total population and their age.

Case in point, in one of his articles he calls the border wall with Mexico a mistake and suggests it would be more beneficial to instead give Latin America aid money. How many trillions of dollars need to be wasted on third world shitholes until the message is heard? No amount of money will make up for shit genes.

the price of oil is contingent on a multitude of variables, only one of them is supply. 50% of oil production is controlled by OPEC which is a literal cartel that manipulates the price outside of the market. Other major non-OPEC countries also deliberately manipulate prices in congruence with their state objectives, not market mechanisms. You market fags operate in a fantasy land

You say that like if those countries had tons of people. They're underpopulated and aging as well

>many conflicting interests end up in perpetual favor of oil producers
Conspiracy "thinking"

Yes but only for the US.
It will be interesting the difference in oil prices between the US and the rest of the world.

Your brain is poisoned with the propaganda of progress. I don't assume steady-state, I also don't assume that every time a resource is depleted, another will fall out of the sky. Unless a suitable substitute is found (of which there is nothing even close yet) we will run out and everything you see around you wil slowly decay back into nothingness. W/o oil there is no modernity.

A couple of chapters in on the absent super power, on Jow Forumss recommendation. Bretty gud so far, all about oil crash, which I was working in at the time

In order, though you do not need to.
Accidental then Absent.
Absent is a great shale oil book, very interesting.
He is a faggot but he has a very good handle on where the world is heading.
You can tell he is no Trump fan but he agrees with where Trump wants to take the country.

>W/o oil there is no modernity.
With our current infrastructure, that is true. However, the technologies needed to have a similarly sized economy of similar cost already exists.
Nuclear reactors for power, polymer synthesis from high-temperature carbon monoxide and water using CO2 and water as a feedstock, and fuel synthesis for high-energy modes of transport (aircraft, military vehicles, rockets). That all together would be enough to keep the world humming without any sort of bullshit magical green tech.

I was on board with peter zeihan for a long time. I do not see his war predictions coming totally true, especially the twilight war, but he had some great current analysis.

Recently he completely botched his understanding of the Korean Japan relationship. Like he straight up had his facts wrong and preached it as truth, very partisan way.

This really put him into question for me, because it’s something I understand well. Made me realize he can be quite fallible and not understand a situation despite claiming he does.

Still interested in his thoughts on energy.

>except for the part where he argues that shale, which is currently petering out (unless more is found)
This is the stupidest comment in the thread. There is a shitload of shale and it is the reason the US is the biggest oil exporter. Also with advancements in drilling techniques we keep on finding more.

>A nation that receives 2 MILLION immigrants per year will never disappear.
As the current Russian goverment is concerned it will.

>Recently he completely botched his understanding of the Korean Japan relationship. Like he straight up had his facts wrong and preached it as truth, very partisan way.
Elaborate? I'm curious about what he said.

>USA has the only population that can both consume global imports and capitol
Not after it becomes minority White in the next decade

Blue-pilled liberal who is blind to the aspect of race.

He totally misrepresented the origins of the issue, obfuscated the responsibilities of Korea, and took Korea’s side in a partisan way. He lies by omission, barely or not at all mentioning japans grievances.

I think it was in his newsletter recently.

It was a very blatant mischaracterization.

Can you tell a brainlet (me) where Zeihan was wrong?

The black death couldn't kill us then (in fact, it made us better) and neither will this one.

>I think he's a true believer
He is. Just go look at his twitter. The guy posts normie-tier bullshit all the time. He's a fucking retard, and when anyone posts him on Jow Forums it's a dead giveaway that they came from Jow Forumsthe_donald and don't know what they're talking about

Only my personal opinion on other matters:

I can see part of his twilight war (Russia invading all the way to Germany and Sweden) coming true.

I.e. maybe Russia will make a play for Ukraine and absorb Belarus. I do not see a full scale war breaking out with Western Europe. Like he predicts in the baltics and Scandinavia.

I do believe his Mid East war will come true. Iran and sa are going to war at some point.

Both he predicts no us involvement. I do not think this is right. Us will be involved I believe, if at least in a lesser capacity.

I hope I am wrong though.

>Recently he completely botched his understanding of the Korean Japan relationship. Like he straight up had his facts wrong and preached it as truth, very partisan way.

Are you talking about the recent Korean butthurt over comfort women and Japan ignoring it because Korea and Japan officially squashed that beef decades ago and there was no reason to revisit the matter? Then Koreans boycotted Jap goods then Japan removed Korea from some trading partners list?

Yea this is another weakness of his. He only considers the observable facts. That makes sense though.

Yes, it’s on his newsletter. It was blatantly misinformed. I actually almost wrote him about it.

I disagree with his perspectives on Iran however the majority of his proposals and deductions are grounded in real research and years of thought. I am a real fan.

There are too many things that are hidden or obfuscated. Too many clandestine organizations pulling strings. How can we be sure what's going to happen when when don't even know whats happening right now?

Attached: tenor.gif (498x212, 2.35M)

Zeihan works/worked for stratfor and is just aping the neocon line they push there, of perpetual American dominance for the rest of time. The patriotards and neocons from /ptg/ like him because he tells them what they want to hear.

>twilight war
I think he's off basis on that too. Ironically, it may be a re-militarized Germany that sets a conflict like that off. There are a lot of things that need to happen between here and there for that to be a reality though.

>Trump is the start of a new trend in US politics

Attached: 1554242419117.png (883x667, 558K)

A new trend. Singular.
>Besides, the truth of the matter there is we give Israel shitloads of military goodies so they can figure out how to optimize them for us. They sort out the issues and figure out best-use, and we don't get our hands dirty.

There is no new trend. Trump is doing all of the same things that America has been doing for decades.

He discusses this. Germany is a cycle of strong and weak. Germany gets too weak, neighbors try to invade. So Germany gets strong. Germany is good at it so they get too strong. No Germany starts to invade neighbors. Repeated throughout history.

>we give Israel shitloads of military goodies so they can figure out how to optimize them for us
Indeed, that money is way better off in the hands of Israel. You wouldn't want filthy goys deciding how to spend it. Truly a change in direction.

FUCK OFF KIKE

The peterpill. Kek. I too have taken the peterpill

Germany needs to unite with Russia it is the one thing that the Uk and the US has always worked to prevent. Their union would produce a power that is able to topple the atlantacist block
Did I spell that right, I hope so, but you know what I mean the Ocean power that was the UK and now the US

There is enough oil on the wolfcamp shale alone to provide 600 years worth of US dimestic oil needs. That's one shale within a field of shales that are over 1000 square miles wide and a mile thick.

>Trump is doing all of the same things that America has been doing for decades.
Except for the whole thing where we're now saying "pay us or we leave you to the winds." Between 1946 and 2016, we just subsidized the whole defensive arrangement.
I'll rephrase that: we give disposable planes and disposable bombs and missiles to a disposable partner with disposable pilots and disposable soldiers in a disposable region to very cheaply (relatively speaking) figure out how to keep our pilots, soldiers, and planes undisposed.

Yes, that's literally what he says. My take is more that Russia has already decayed too far to seriously attempt a twilight war scenario. However, the twist is that the EU is not in great shape, and a collapse of the Euro (currency) would be a trigger to kick Germany into a 'get strong' political cycle due to severe economic hardship. Zeihan has already noted the likely targets of such a reinvigorated Germany, and they're in Russian territory.

To keep it a hot commodity... if they raise prices back to $100 a barrel or higher then demand will plummet as hydrogen based solutions are implemented. Electric cars on a massive scale are a pipe dream and the resources needed to mass produce them not to mention the strain on the power grid are a impossible goals. Hydrogen cells on the other hand are the future though its forcibly hidden now because its an instant death blow to the oil industry.

I just hope that when Russia Balkanizes, Japan isn’t too cucked to retake karafuto-ken

One thing I'm surprised he hasn't brought up is Japan is kind of doing a competing (but non-predatory) version of China's foreign investment program in Southeast Asia. Japan is doing this in part to block China's predatory foreign investment program, but also to leverage its own automation expertise and to create new markets for Japanese industry.

>Except for the whole thing where we're now saying "pay us or we leave you to the winds."
>saying
Trump says a lot of things. He has given no indication of rolling back American empire (at least not intentionally).

>Between 1946 and 2016, we just subsidized the whole defensive arrangement.
This is the opposite of the truth. America has been forcing other nations to fund its military for decades, by bribing, threatening, or blackmailing them into buying US Treasury bonds.

>forcing other nations
No, they very happily signed up for the arrangement. Their grumbling is mostly for domestic consumption.
>en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_Conference

>No, they very happily signed up for the arrangement.
False. Their politicians were bought off or forced out if they were not compliant.

And yet the only country to ever give part of it up [temporarily] was France.

Because, again, they were bribed, threatned, or blackmailed.

The Japanese have their own program, but they'd much rather stay part of the informal Five Eyes arrangement until China dissolves into the next round of Warlordism, famine, and whoring around, which will of needs be come to pass. It's China.

Japan's cohesion is what gives it such great strength. It's why the American political class values Japan as an ally in a way that is matched only by the UK and Israel.

For his part, Zeihan is emphasizing the geographic strengths of the U.S., which are unmatched in the world. It is our leadership classes who are holding this country back.

And now we're _extorting_ them, threatening them, and blackmailing them, at best. That is a pretty critical change in the character of the agreement.

If you accept Spengler, the US which is basically the west at its furthest point out, will enter its final imperial mode. Caesar is alive at this very moment and should be installed within the next 100 years if I remember the timeline.
Glory days will come again until the empire rips itself apart and Caesars battle for control.
Culturally we are already there, everything is a rehash of a rehash and modernity and rationalism have been put to its limit. The time of the second religion is here.
In some respects Peters analysis agrees with this although I don't think he knows or understands the greater metaphysical forces at work.

No it isn't. The basic point is that trump is not challenging American empire and hegemony at all, and he is certainly not starting any new trends. Saying otherwise is retarded, but is what I would expect from low IQ analysts like Zeihan.

> I don't think he knows or understands the greater metaphysical forces at work
This. He has to see the parallels between an aging US empire and Caesar eventually crossing the rubicon.

Why would we challenge a hegemony we might not have to pay for?

America is not a part of the west. That has always been a misunderstanding. America is the enemy of the west.

>America is the enemy of the west.
How so?

America is a product of the west its final chapter, the fruit of all her thought. It is not pretty but Europe should not deny what she created. All other European countries will eventually become just like America shortly before their death.
Germany and the UK for example. This was always to be the end but endings can be beautiful.

We were talking about trends and the claim that Trump is starting new ones (which is false), not what "we" should do.

If we get free hegemony over Europe because they're freaked out about Russia, that fits in the trend.

>Malthusian Bullshit

Malthus and his followers simply underestimated the amount of resources, and at times technological advancement that allowed access to additional resources, or improved resource production/consumption efficiency.

You have to be incredibly retarded to think the economy and human population can grow infinitely on Earth.

>You have to be incredibly retarded to think the economy and human population can grow infinitely on Earth.
Vanishingly few people believe that. Most people figure we're going to settle in to a comfortable 10-11 billion.

How do you explain North and South Korea then retard.

>muh genes determine everything.

Attached: NONONONO.jpg (768x538, 49K)

>America is a product of the west its final chapter, the fruit of all her thought.
No. There is nothing western about America. It is different.

Which means the claim of trump starting new trends is false. Thank you for affirming what I have been arguing

How? The enlightenment is western the east india company was western. The US is just that type of thinking pushed to its logical conclusion.
She is not the enemy of the west but simply the final destination before the dustbin of history.

>Russia collapses due to demographic decline and migration from Central Asia
>Everything is ok in the usa. Migration is beneficial!

Attached: 1489700439327.gif (320x240, 1.58M)

North Korea is a nuclear power.
South Korea makes phones.

The second religion = liberalism and they are trying to take full control.

didn't he claim argentina is going to be a future power?
he really attaches too much value to arable land

This is outrageously wrong and absolutely no legitimate sources claim this.
The USA currently has 11 years worth of proven oil reserves at current production and consumption rates.

USA shale production is peaking.
Shale wells have a 80% decline in output in the first 3 years. This requires constant new expansion, expensive well construction and exploration.

The vast majority of shale companies are in massive debt and going bankrupt.
Shale oil has been unable to pay for itself. The financial support has been cut off and the companies are going to fold.
They’ll be bought out by the super majors who will operate shale at a loss while making profits on their conventional, but either way, shale isn’t a solution to the demand for ever increasing energy.

Based graph poster.
Imagine thinking “technology will fix it”
Lmao it’s like saying “ a wizard or something”

Argentina is about to default for the 9th time!

>USA shale production is peaking.
because oil is $50/barrel and they aren't going to open wells that will lose money
their currency is 1/6th of what it was 5 years ago against most currencies

a guy like this would predict the shah leading iran today if you asked him in 1975, he has no ability to predict outliers

I'm not dismissing his work in its totality.
He did predict a tanker war.
Russia has 3 more months to conquer Ukraine, rep. of Moldova, parts of Poland parts of Romania, lol.

>which is currently petering out
No its not.