This is a subjective interpretation of the volume on log scale from 2013 till now based on the 3D chart. I highlighted the buy/sell volume, height and width indicate the consistency of the spree and aswell the peaks of a single bar in such a serie. >White = neutral, no clear consitency in buying/selling, lots of mixed bars. >Green= Lots of buying, relatively few red volume bars >Red= Lots of selling, relatively few green volume bars
What I notice from this is accumulation, you see huge buying sprees, followed up by few selling sprees and a few massive red candles presumably profit taking. >buying spree in 2013-2014 >buying spree in Q4 2015 till ~2017 >Huge spike of selling in 2014 after which there hasn't been such selling volume ever since. >No clear selling sprees as opposed to multi-year buying/accumulation sprees
>My subjective interpretation (possibly biased): Whats also notable is that there hasn't been any sell volume like 2014 yet. Analyzing volume like this to me appears as accumulation and first sell-off. Because of the illiquidity in the market the size of the price shift is immense. A highly illiquid retail market, retailers are often inexperienced and emotional, which suggests that if institutional money doesn't come in in 2018 this market will eventually bubble again anyway because of the retailers trading fear/greed. It seems natural that this market will experience a rush of liquidty provided by more interest from different parties to trade these assets.
Thanks for making this OP, very informative. So you're saying that you expect another multi-year buying spree? If the pattern continues we'd be due for a selling spree like 2014 at some point, no?
Matthew Morales
did you add tethers? i bet you didnt
Zachary Bell
So 2014 was a black swan, 2017-2018 is a correction after 20xing
Jason Bailey
yeah basically, though this analysis doesn't account for OTC buying/selling which has been huge the past months. If this was the peak, you'd expect to see volume dwarfing 2014 as smart money exits (which also control most of the coins). Instead you see massive accumulation over multiple years with profit taking in between. As the accumulation phase ends and the market stays illiquid the price fluctations become larger.
Though I'm not experienced with bubbles and I haven't been able to anaylze volume of other bubbles. This seems more or less like a logical explenation. usually bear markets in stocks last 1.5-3 years where an absolute bottom is found. And bull markets last for 8-10 years where an absolute peak is found. This chart shows 5 years of data, 2013-2018. With the start of 2014 into Q4 2015 being bear and Q42015-Q42017 being bull (from what we can see).
So that is about 1.75 years of bear and 2 years of bull. I find these proportions a little odd, so I'd expect atleast another 1-2 years of bull (possibly even more if it adheres the same cycles of stocks). The rise is always slower than the fall.
If BTC does do 8years of bull and 2 years of bear, then the market cycles would be comparitive of that of the stock market, which suggests that volatility does not imply cycles. So what people say about crypto being highly volatile and cycles closing up sooner doesn't work. It's the liquidity of the market that should in that case explain the quick rises and falls. Which makes sense.
In other words, we can only speculate for now but it's highly probable may I say so myself that this isn't the end, and that we'd see a turn of trend rather soon than late.
Eli Wright
About liquidity, cycles and volatility, what I mean to say by that its been a bull market the whole time, it never became bearish its just that the volatility gives the appearance of a bear market, whilst its just a correction in a larger bull market cycle.
Aiden Bell
Is the tether thing going to start the bull run now?
Ian Jones
volume is like fuckin non existent the ladt 4months, I remember days the last years of 500,000BTC tarded across all exchanges within 12 hours.
even as prices where >10.000 we saw volume up to 200,000 per Day.
as long as this volume didnt ramp up by a 100 fold, no trend change in sight.
Noah Roberts
Well it's always been liquidity, hasn't it? The crypto market as a whole is highly illiquid which causes the manipulation and volatility seen constantly.
This, my only concern is that volume has dried up as of late. The major selloff may have already occurred but it's increasingly apparent that the only people trading bitcoin are bots. For some reason there is significantly less interest. It seems like more than just an average selloff
Ian Rodriguez
Well even if wash trading makes up a big part of this volume chart, there's still no explenation then for why there hasn't been more selling volume compared to 2014. 2014 was a panic year basically, but if this is the year the bubble pops you'd expect smart money to be aware of this, whom also presumably have been accumulating pre-2018 (else they wouldn't be called smart money). Instead you see a relatively small sell-off with a huge price fluctuation. Which is easily explained by the illiquidity of this market.
Other than euphoria, which is naturally dominent in this market because of the volatility. ICOs for example have raised more this year than the whole of 2017. In a stock market bubble you'd expect during a bear market for IPOs to be scarce and often not meeting their funding goals.
Dylan Reyes
Yep thats true, but thats with any market. Bots are dominant in any market really, this is all retail and bots. Retailers (speculators) leaving the market is a convincing sign of a bottom if you're anywhere near familar with the theory of cycles/bubble formations and volume.
The speculators basically think its over and leave the market, allowing smart money time to accumulate before taking off again. If most volume does consist of retailers, and volume is at an ATL, then retail traders/speculators is also at an ATL, which is rather bullish.
Nathaniel Edwards
Look if that seems confusing, look at it in this way: These speculators largely operate on fear/greed and other emotions. If a large majority of the market thinks its over, you're likely just getting started. These speculators will come back mind you when they notice this market is making new highs.
Christopher Price
compared to the last test of the 6000 range volume is okay, it just starts to spread over more and more exchanges.
Question; Do you think there's more speculation in the stock market or crypto atm? Not asking which market is speculative, but where do you see more speculation happening?
Easton Nguyen
i have no idea
Easton Young
This is a hard question to answer. Its easy to say crypto, but then I see stocks like TSLA. TSLA should not be worth $54B (bigger than the MC of ETH) by any stretch of the imagination, they have never turned a profit and it appears like they never will.
Robert Bailey
seems to me there's not much speculation in this market right now.
Luke Allen
Crypto doesn`t have a killer app besides bitcoin`s store of value function. Everybody is betting in projects that don`t have any real comparisons in the real market.
What we need right now is an efficient ethereum platform. It seems that ETH scalability is the biggest bottleneck to the growth of a lot of platforms that created tokens.
Joshua Stewart
brainlet here how do you read volume on a log chart. how do the relative scales work down there
Brayden Green
it doesn't matter, the volume is the same, the log chart is purely for the purpose of being able to see the macro picture of the price. Turn your chart of log and on while checking volume, it makes no difference.
Most projects in crypto are very early and retailers already gave up because they don't have patience. I personally think a killer app is still waiting to be found. Large majority of projects have been get rich quick schemes and scams. Ethereum is probably already a killer app with smart contracts, it just hasn't gained traction in adoption because its early and financial institutions are still in the process of starting to understand blockchain technology. These things take time. About scalability, same was said about the internet in the 90's and early 2000's. Solutions will be found though, I don't think scaling is the biggest issue blockchain faces as this is easily solved as we understand the technology better and learn what doesn't work, its a matter of trial and error.
Nolan Robinson
Stocks are just as much about speculation as crypto. With the exception being dividend paying stocks, of course.
Elijah Murphy
I've personally been looking at ways to get a fundamental picture of a projects value if you consider the revenue goes trough the tokens/coins etc. I do find certain industries are a lot more likely to gain traction than others in that sense aswell. But actually these tokens/coins can definitely have value from just customers. Its not even that far-fetched, I bet those instutitions once they figure it out will fucking dig it.
Brody Russell
I think ETH, STK and SUB are killer apps. STK will bridge crypto and card payments, making it cheaper than ever to buy stuff when abroad. SUB will take over the VPN market allowing everyone to serve as a VPN server for money or just to be able to use VPNs for free with a single click.
These two tokens should have a product ready before EOY, and that's when they'll gain traction and attention with the media.
Hudson Evans
and if you have access to data showing how much is spent per user on said product, and you have data showing user growth, you can make a value picture of what a token would cost and how much you can expect it to rise/decline. Its no different really from stocks. The only issue is that most projects won't get the mass traction to make a token worth it.
And likely at some point these tokens will ''max out'' (like how everyone owns a smartphone now) and marketshare will start becoming the dominant factor, so competition driving innovation. Meaning the crypto's will also get less volatile as there's more fundamental data to support certain price growth and decline.
Adrian Hill
I'm betting more in artificial inteligence / automation dApps. I don`t think the financial ones like OMG, TenX and Cashaa will pass the regulatory hurdles to take a piece of the banks.
And you? What are you betting on?
Hudson Long
I'm betting on BaaS. But yes I think AI and Blockchain will sync pretty well. Other than that I'm still betting on the gaming industry to lead adoption in the near future.
Gabriel Rogers
I think currencies will do pretty well too but imo they should focus their resources on getting into 2nd/3rd world countries, though I imagine security is a big obstacle. Right now there's not a lot of incentive for 1st world countries to adopt these currencies only very niche reasons. Whilst currency failure in 2nd and 3rd world countries is an every day ordeal and there's certainly a big demand for digital currencies that can lead to mass adoption. Also when these communities pre-dominantly start doing trade with digital currencies, companies who want to get into these markets are also likely to start dealing with these currencies because it just makes the effort of getting into that market a lot less complicated.
And thats where you get a domino effect of adoption.
I think blockchain will definitely create entire new businesses not seen before and will definitely create real world value trough tangible products/goods.
Luis Green
In the AI segment I'm betting on AGI (SingularityNet) and NTK (Neuromation). What are the Baas you are investing investing?
Jonathan Moore
Start doing your research guys, everyone knows another bullrun is coming sooner or later. You're going to get eaten raw and alive if you don't stay on top of your game. This is a once in a life-time opportunity, if you work your hardest for a few years, you could possibly never have to do it again if you choose so.
Kayden Hall
That`s where the bottleneck of scalling comes in. I really doubt that ETH and other projects related projects are ready to process tens of millions of transactions. And ETH is very geeky. Most people don`t have any idea how the gas system works.
Charles Phillips
Historical analysis of volume is meaningless 100 BTC when it was 100 bucks a pop is 10k, while half a bitcoin was 10k not too long ago.
Volume should be measured in USD to have a real feel for liquidity
Lincoln Nelson
Universa, I make value bets based on the team. So far they haven't let me down except for the exchange listing. But I assume as time goes and they land more deals and it moves onto another exchange the price follows.
Also got a few ICO bets and buying Cardano and a small position in IOTA although I'm not a fan of the team but I think IoT is underestimated by a lot of people.
Jaxon Cruz
Nah it definitely isn't.
Justin Robinson
What think yee aboot Project Chicago?
Gavin Russell
that's because we're right on the verge of the massive selling volume. the market is in denial rn and still waiting for whales to save them.
Blake Ramirez
I am absolutely convinced that you are a complete retard.
Austin Wilson
I think its a positive venture that will be in demand when institutions start trading and issuing crypto's. You see for example a couple of months back that Kevin O Leary is going to issue a crypto for a hotel chain. Ofcourse most people already forgot about this because it was just another hype spike adding fuel to the fire of the massive runup.
But these are entrepreneurs that want to think outside the box and see what they can do with this, and this will attract others aswell, however slow it may happen. Look at in this way: We're walking towards a cliff of mass adoption, each person is a new step, eventually you'll get to the edge and fall, or in other words hit a tilting point, a critical mass in the network effect.
This stuff is new and offers a wide range of new possibilities that would be impossible without. the herd is always slow, there are still people that need to be taught how to use a computer/internet but that hasn't stopped from the internet becoming one of the biggest economic forces.
Elijah Morris
Good good I appreciate your insights. What do you think about UBER creating a daap/token? The likelihood of them being replaced by a daap in the near future? Any other business models that are threatened by this sort of scenario?
Christopher Cruz
yes sure, I think everything that is basically a middleman especially UBER can get replaced by this. There's definitely incentive for UBER drivers to leave the company since their pay is heavily undermined by them. I think Facebook won't necessarily get replaced that quickly but I think a new model of showing ads and the monetisation of it will kill FBook to bankruptcy (being very optimistic on that one) and thus leaving the users without a home, which will likely then slowly migrate. or Fbook gets bought up by a blockchain that has figured what Fbook has not.
Evan Lopez
When you say "stock market" do you mean people who take positions with actual shares or derivatives?
Derivatives dwarf all.
Brody Kelly
aslong as they're speculating on the underlying asset. But sure for the sake of the argument without.
Asher Johnson
Shill me on Universa please
Jaxon Williams
No you'll have to DYOR, you'll get eaten raw and alive if you aren't past the learning stage by now.
Jace Hughes
Research shows the team has been missing benchmarks recently
Jordan Thomas
source?
Xavier Young
>no MAN not gonna make it user
Brayden Fisher
I guess this thread is a good example of how great information can be found among mountains of shitposting and memes.
Elijah Myers
Public-facing dapps on ETH won't make their users interact with the first layer at all. It'll be sidechains type solutions (free subsecond txs) with the dapp calling home every now and then
Look up what Loom Network is doing with their UI integration (I am NOT telling you to buy the coin, this is not a shill post. Just talking about the strategy and tech here). Like OP says, the initial catalyst is likely to be gaming - and they're going to weave blockchain into existing apps seamlessly. At first it'll be a novelty tool to handle interoperable items, then they'll add security, then more and more game logic will move to the blockchain; any semi-permanent game state that needs transparency and security can benefit from that. then the novel use cases come. imagine not having to worry about rampant smurfs in free2play games because you ask users to make an ether deposit in order to play, said deposit being withdrawable at will but revoking your right to play, essentially an authentification token with collateral, with blockchain security guaranteeing your money isn't going away
By 2020, the gaming dapp gold rush will start
Daniel Cook
i wouldnt expect adoption comming from 3rd and 2nd world countries, people are not very innovative and certainly not new tech friendly
