Which is going to be more disruptive to the international order in the 21st century: biotech (including genetic engineering and embryo selection) or AI?
International futurism thread
Jace Morgan
Ethan Carter
islam
Jace Fisher
Which ever is less regulated. So AI.
Logan Hill
AI would be far easier to spread out, no?
Cooper Jenkins
>Which ever is less regulated.
interestingly, there are apparently no regulations against using educational attainment PRS (or something like it) for embryo selection in the US yet:
genomicprediction.com
However, the company claims they only use it to report risk of low IQ / learning disability.
Angel Johnson
neither are regulated in China
Thomas Taylor
>biotech (including genetic engineering and embryo selection)
not happening
>AI
will be disruptive, especially when driverless trucks show up
Christopher Lopez
Depends on the circumstances. See, that's the thing about nucleic acids: within a particular system, they're good at making lots of copies of themselves. What happens if a gene drive experiment escapes the lab and has unforeseen deleterious consequences? But I digress.
Joseph Nelson
>driverless trucks
>disruptive
How would autonomous trucks be the most disruptive thing of all? I would think surveillance, fake news generation, or mass broadcasting that affects people's decision making would be the serious thing.
Unless you yourself are a truck driver in which case lol
Oliver Watson
>not happening
It's already happening
statnews.com
not very powerful yet, but there's reason to believe it will be soon
Jordan Diaz
this
AI is going to turn our economy on its head
Hunter Ortiz
truck drivers make up a huge chunk of the workforce, especially in rural areas. Most these guys are high school educated boomers, who will be untrainable for skilled jobs.
>It's already happening
its not its just hypothetical nonsense at this. The chinese guy who created CRISPR babies was sent prison. And none of the western researchers will touch this with a 10 ft pole
Logan Barnes
and truck drivers are only a slice of the jobs that AI will take over. cashiers, retail workers, administrative and secretarial jobs will all eventually be taken over as well
Daniel Gray
>its just hypothetical nonsense
No, you don't understand. Genomic Prediction offers these services today. They just aren't willing (yet) to facilitate selection for the embryo with the *highest* potential: they'll only help you avoid the ones predicted to have low ability. However, Stephen Hsu's ultimate goal is undoubtedly enhancement.
Jason Parker
According to the internets, truck drivers are just 5% of the population in the US
I'm not saying that old people on unskilled jobs are going to have an easy time, it just seemed bizarre to me to pick such an specific job like truck driver and not leaving it at a more vague "unskilled jobs performed by untrainable/old people"
Brandon Ortiz
using genomic prediction for intelligence is not the same as boosting milk production in cows. Genes involved in intelligence are much more complex, with various unknowns. If the selected baby turns out be a 160 IQ savant with turbo autism, the scientists will be looking at massive liability suits.
its varies by state, rural regions will be hollowed out. Also 5% of workforce being unemployed at once will have massive cumulative effects.
Wyatt Harris
And on a side note, we've had 3 industrial revolutions already, and every time the quality and cost of living have improved at least on the long term, even with society getting shaken up a little each time.
Half the articles I read about "what automation is going to do to your job" is clickbait shit written by a journalist (a job threatened by AI, and an industry in which modern companies encourage their writers to be subjective and appeal to emotions), never written by either sociologists, or historians, or industrial engineers, or macro economists that have studied what previous automation periods actually have done for humanity
Parker Kelly
>Genes involved in intelligence are much more complex
Polygenicity isn't an issue. We can explain ~10% of the variance already with the best available PRS. Using chink magic to reliably produce stem-cell derived gametes, you can iterate the selection process and generate a population of genius embryos in a dish.
Elijah Flores
What would a human with an iq over 1000 even act like?
Jaxson Reed
there's no doubt that there will massive improvement in productivity but. The people most affected will be high school educated men, who are already dropping out of the workforce. Most of the new jobs created will be 'pink collar' service sector jobs.
This will lead to skyrocketing rates of neets and incels.
nytimes.com
Samuel Anderson
Obviously a combination of both, AI was like made for analyzing + making sense of genome data within seconds
Julian Young
Immersive 3D deepfake pornography with all your favourite actresses
Brody Wood
Andrew Yang 2020
Ayden Sanchez
The average IQ will always be at 100 and considering that the Standard Deviation is 15, you would have to restrict all the access of this technology to yourself to get an IQ over 1000.As a matter of fact, less than a century ago, Europeans had the same IQ as the sub-saharans of today.
Clearly that has changed thanks to better technology, wealth, and a variety of different factors but you get the point.
Owen Evans
>a variety of different factors
micronutrient deficiency is a big one
>you would have to restrict all the access of this technology to yourself to get an IQ over 1000
my view is that this tech is inevitable but must be democratized ie made available to all (so as to avoid a 'The Time Machine' type scenario)
Matthew Wilson
>AI
(power gap)
>anything else
Nicholas Ross
Jayden Bell
>a similar approach could be applied to human intelligence
This is literally how you get severe forms of autism though
Eli Carter
AI, imagine a day where all infantries and other humans in military are replaced with AI-driven drones
Jose Allen
only one way to find out