So i just won .42 btc on fortunejack dice

So i just won .42 btc on fortunejack dice

So I go to withdraw .84 btc and they tell me I have to bet atleast twice of what I deposited, but I dont want to do another coinflip.

So I have to bet another .42 btc in small amounts to get my money out.

The odds of winning in dice is 49.50%

If I want to reduce my variance as much as possible wouldnt it be best to bet as low as I can to guarantee I only lose .50%?

The lowest I can bet is 10 satoshi.

If i were to bet 10 satoshi until .42 btc i would have to sit here clicking 4.2 million times.

Is this the safest way?

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also how long would that take me

4.2million clicks

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let me rephrase the question this way

at what satoshi amount should i bet to where it doesnt matter anymore and it should be roughly .50% loss

surely a couple thousands of runs

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sorry op, those sites are scams...iv'e seen a post similar to this recently where someone 'won' .8btc but had to deposit .1 to withdraw. How many confirmations does the deposit address have?

hmm lets see
lets say its 10s per roll
42m secs.... yes... a bit of math.....
about a year and a half of non stop clicking according to my calculations

see whats a good number i should be betting to where it doesnt matter anymore

like if i bet 50,000 satoshi i only have to roll it 800 times

but is there a chance i lose a fuck load

over only 800 times

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its a mathematical question
im not good at math

whats a good number to where i wont lose barely anything statistically

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Are you really this dumb user? You have just as much chance of losing that .42 betting it in any small increments as you do betting it all at once. You can't guarantee you only lose .50%, in fact there's a 50.5% chance you lose .42 btc no matter how you play it.

i can bet any amount what number would you pick

to guarantee you lose as little as possible

50,000 satoshi?

20,000 satoshi?

20,000 satoshi is 2000 spins

are you serious dude?

surely i would only lose .50% over a million times right?

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is this guy serious?????????

surely over a million times 49.50% comes out to 49.50%

if not then math is fundamentally flawed

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If you have 1 million dollars and you had to bet to cash it, would you do it in one coin flip or 1000? One coin flip and you either gain a million or lose on, smaller portions and 1000 coin flip pretty much guarantees 500k

Guess which one smart guy would pick?

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nah you can only withdraw less than what you deposited

I mean 1 million instead of 500k, if you double your winnings if you guess right.

send me .1 btc and i will write u a bot to do the clicks for you

Just get a macro program

i probably will use an autoclicker

my problem is how many am i doing

1 million spins?

500 k spins?

i can pick any number up to 4.2 million
but that will probably take way too long

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The math is the same no matter how you do it you fucking brainlet.

if i could get away with like 5000 spins that would be the best because i can do it myself

i just need to know what the math is

how quickly 49.50% vs 50.50% will balance out

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lmao just say good bye to you money, you're never getting it back. 100% a scam.

you are literally fucking retarded
did you drop out of elementary school or what

You're right, I am the retard, been a long day. I guess it just depends on how many you want to do. Or are the odds adjustable up to 99.5%, couldn't you just bet the full .42 at that?

uve got scammed breh

i have to bet 49.50% every time

lets say you coinflipped 10,000 times

would 20,000 more times guarantee you get closer to being 49.50% exactly

because we all know that if you only roll it 10 times you can easily lose 9 out of 10 of those

so what number would you pick to stay safe i need a math man

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Is this shit even provably fair?

waiting for a math major or programmer to join the thread

how many flips before a coinflip becomes essentially 50,50

how much closer to 50,50 would 1 million coinflips be than say 10,000

is it worth it

and what number would YOU pick in order to keep most of your money

you want to come as close to 50, 50 as possible

at what point does it stop mattering

after 2 million do you get more accurate to where its worth my time

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>Be OP
>click a mouse 4.2 million times
>after 2 years it’s finally done!
>realize it was a scam and he’s out of everything he wagered
Topkek

Do it in crements of reverse Fibonacci

I’m pursuing a PhD. Took graduate level stats classes. 50-100 flips should definitely be more than enough to lose ~50% of them.

stop trolling me dude

you can easily lose 80 of those 100 if youre really unlucky

seriously gaslighter gtfo

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ive got aids on my balls an,d pussy

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Here you go you fucking moron. IRL your best shot is to bet it all in one go.

The variance goes down like 1/sqrt(N) where N is the amount of coin flips.

Standard deviation is sqrt(p(1-p)) where p=49.5%. So for N coin flips your standard deviation will be sqrt(p(1-p))/sqrt(N).

You plug in the numbers, Im about to go to sleep. This

This means that you'd have 95% of chance of your outcome to lie within +/- the standard deviation. Your choice to pick a convenient N

i will seriously never go to 162 again youre like a demonic frog spirit dude

ive never seen such a nasty and toxic person than you

go away i hope you get banned dude you make me physically sick like im going to puke like youre the exorcist

see thats something i needed
so that says over 1000 times you get close to even

thats very doable if i only need 1000 times

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well i made the thread because i want someone to help me out whats a good number of spins to where i can get my money out safely only losing .50% or close to it

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looks more like anything over 300 to me is a waste of time

I don't think increasing the amount of rolls will improve your chances here. As you approach an infinite amount of rolls, you basically guarantee that you will lose to the casino. That's why they're literally forcing you to roll more. I would just bet the .42 BTC at once.

seems a little sketchy only doing it 300 times dont you think

surely i can lose 200 of those 300 if i run really unlucky no?

would you trust a mere 300 with being 50 - 50

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damn this guy is a retard, it is simple math.
just do 1k rolls and you are good, doing more rolls. makes the result more certain, lets say you have 1million and you do 1 million rolls then your balance should be very close to 499500 with 1k rolls it would be around 490000 and 500000

did you accept their "bonus"?

NEVER accept any bonuses from online casinos, its just a trap to ensure that you are never able to cash out due to "rollover requirements"

these websites are all scams

just put the .42 on a 50% roll

dot it pussy

Give me a second I'll write it down

so youre saying 1k

ok so far we have 1k spins a good number

does anyone think i should do more

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If you lose two times in a row with small bets you should go all in. The odds that you lose 3 times in a row are very small.

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do more lil bitch

HAHAHHHAH YOU GOT SCAMMED DUDE

THEY'LL NEVER LET YOU CASH OUT. .42 BTC IS PROBABLY MORE PROFIT THAN THEY'VE MADE TOTAL

YOU'RE A RETARD.

YOU SENT YOUR BTC AND YOU WILL NEVER GET IT BACK.

THIS IS HOW CASINOS OPERATE, NOT JUST BITCOIN ONES.

ALL IS GOOD UNTIL YOU TRY TO CASH OUT LOL

EVEN IF YOU DID ANOTHER ROLL AND WENT OVER THE REQUIREMENT, THEY'D FIND SOMETHNG ELSE LIKE SAYING YOUR IP IS BLACKLISTED ETC

surely you could lose 2000 out of 3000 if you're really unlucky too, still not very much a difference. If I were I'd just have some balls and do another single flip, worst case you break even right?

All these betting sites are scams. You should've known better

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no fucking way dude dont try to convince me of that

i already did all i needed to do

>surely you could lose 2000 out of 3000 if you're really unlucky too,

ya but its less likely if its 3000 spins dont you think vs 300

thats what im trying to do right now

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they are going to ghost him

Why are so many people suggesting a shit ton of rolls? is this board retarded?
Lots of rolls = guaranteed loss due to odds being in the casino's favor
1 roll = you might at least get lucky

So the thing is if you could do it in an infinite number of rolls you would get away with exactly the mean, which is :

A*2p

Where A is your BTC stash and p is the probability of winning the roll.

Now, if you give me a confidence interval, as well as a probability, I can tell you how many rolls you will need to be inside the confidence interval with this probability.

Example, if you tell me confidence intervak 0.01 BTC and probability 99.9% I can compute how many roll it would need so that the BTC you leave with with be within 0.01BTC of the expected value, with probability 99.9%

ya but their odds are only .50% over me

so i will only lose .50% and im ok with that

rather than betting everything and losing everything

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Note that the mean value is losing A*(2*0.495) = A*.99

So you would loose 1% of your stash, not 0.5%

ya sure within .01 bitcoin sounds good

hit me with a number

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Start out betting with 10 satoshis then if you lose a roll double the bet next time and so on. It's the system casinos don't want you to know about.

What probability of falling within 0.01BTC do you want ? 99% is good ?

ya or 98 is fine or within .02 bitcoin

whatever it needs to be it doesnt need to be perfect i just want to know what a good number is to get me somewhat close to even

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Alright gimme a sec

the site actually has auto-roll i just found out so im good
i dont need to click a bunch

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>THEY'LL NEVER LET YOU CASH OUT. .42 BTC IS PROBABLY MORE PROFIT THAN THEY'VE MADE TOTAL

you're a fucking retard. Fortunejack is one of the biggest BTC casinos. If they didn't pay withdrawals, word would spread like wildfire and they would cease to exist.

That's not the way online casinos scam people. They do it by offering "bonuses" that idiots like OP accept. They only tell you in the fine print that there are "wagering requirements" when you accept the bonus. It basically ensures that you will never be able to cash out, as you will lose everything trying to meet the requirements

i didnt accept any bonus
this is a universal rule on the site apparantly in their terms and services

you have to bet atleast 2x your deposit

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The higher the # of clicks, the closer to absolute odds payouts you're almost guaranteed to be. I would think a few thousand or even a few hundred would suffice.

i dont need to click i found out they have autoroll and it goes fucking fast

i can easily see doing millions in a day

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congrats. You should end up with exactly the same, or a 0.5% loss at most, statistically.

so it does 11+ clicks/second?

here ill set a timer and ill tell you how many it did in 30 seconds

then we can calculate how long itll take

im doing 10 satoshi a spin

for 4.2 million spins

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it did 107 spins in 30 seconds

how long is this shit gonna take for 4.2 million

i can always cut in half and do 20 satoshi maybe

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about 2 weeks
but maybe you should lower it to 5 satoshi just to be sure

The probability of 50 wins in 100 tries is pic related.
I'll try to make an approximation. Wait a sec.

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The odds are as follows :

For 500 rolls :
82.15% to be within 0.03 BTC
63.02% to be within 0.02 BTC
34.62% to be within 0.01 BTC

For 800 rolls :
91.05% to be within 0.03 BTC
74.23% to be within 0.02 BTC
42.86% to be within 0.01 BTC

For 1000 rolls :
94.24% to be within 0.03 BTC
79.44% to be within 0.02 BTC
47.32% to be within 0.01 BTC

I am this user btw, got banned because of a Q ref link kek

what about for 4.2 million rolls
thats what we are talking about now
he can easily fail 400/500 clicks

Smakl precision, when I say " to be within ..." I mean within the interval around the expected value, i.e. 99% of your stash.

If you can do it in 1000 rolls your pretty safe, 2000 if you want to be extra safe

lel, reminds me of the casino customer support person who posted the other day about how their job was to figure out how not to pay people

ya it is about 2 weeks i just did it too

10 satoshi is minimum bet

im probably going to raise it to like 200 satoshi a spin though just so i can get it over with by tonight

no im not waiting 2 weeks im probably just doing 200 satoshi or some shit be done by the night

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First of all, are you retarded ? I've written the probability of failure its pretty fucking low (not counting that if you fail there is a 1/2 chance that you actually get more BTC than expected)

But if you want to know, for 4.2 million rolls the probability of falling within 0.001 BTC is higher than 99.99%, but 4 million rolls is totally overkilll...

thanks for your help but with autoroll im pretty much just going to be doing hundreds of thousands of spins

.42 btc / .00000300 satoshi = 141,000 spins

141,000 spins / 107 spins per 30 seconds = 1317

1317 * 30 = 39,532 seconds

39,532 seconds = 10 hours

sounds good?

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Even 200 sats is being overly paranoid desu.

2000 sats is 200k rolls, just look at the numbers

ok forget about 4 million rolls
we are now at 4.2/20=210000 rolls
what are the odds for that

Actually 20k rolls, but even then.
Yeah if you want to wait you are easily golden with that number

2000 sats is 21,000 rolls

.42 / .00002000 = 21000

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I closed my computer but I can easily tell you that you will have certainly a >99.9% of being within 0.01BTC with that number

Yeah I corrected myself, was computing with 4.2BTC stash. Alk my other numbers are correct though, and with 20k rolls it is virtually impossible for you to loose more than 0.02btc

that doesnt sound right....
200k means a lot of spins he can fail...

alright im about to get this show on the road

400 satoshi 8 hours about the amount of time ill be awake

fuck it
i could do less but hopefully this is enough

watch me lose a shit ton lmao

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about exactly 100k spins is what it comes out to

lets go boys

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Last thing before I go to sleep, bear in mind that the probabilities I gave you are for falling WITHIN the interval.

Example if I say there is 95% of falling within 0.01, there is actually a 5% chance of falling out, but this could be either 2.5% chance of losing 0.01BTC more, either 2.5% of WINNING 0.01BTC more.

Keep that in mind, but again, with more than 1k rolls you will very likely not loose more than 0.03BTC at the very worst

If you feel generous send some crumbs my way : 189uFcX5gCipwSq8Q2X4E6CV35jqMAXWtq

Im a poor physicist

Thanks sir, much appreciated sirs

You are retarded, I can do nothing about that. That's not how probabilities work