Does technical analysis really work?

This, there's also whales that read the same charts and mess with you and everyone who sees the same thing and makes similar bets. like barts and inverted barts.

No. Only if enough people believe in it then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. So it can be useful on popular coins.

I am playing with Renko right now, not fully in a system, just to give me another layer of confidence. There is no time component which comes with its own pros and cons. I don't like holding forever when things are going sideways. EMAs and MACD systems are out there for renko and it is tempting to make some charts on tradingview and set alerts (especially for normie stocks). If something has a good elliot wave on candlesticks renko will help play that pretty easily.

Wycoff's idea of the "Composite trader" helps a lot. Just imagine people testing if something will get some legs and go up. Just testing with price spkes here and there, dumps here and there while looking at the longs. I find the idea of trading with the "composite trader" in the back of my head a lot easier to deal with than "whales."

And ETH will bart a whole lot less than BTC so you can get a long way on seeing through the barts if you look at ETH. And if you chart the barts you will usually see they fit in a higher structure. Triangles, wedges, flags, barts make these structures as well.

Do you think brainlets started existing 10 years ago? what about flat earthers?

I think so but its a game that constantly evolves and its like trying to game a casino, what happened is brokerages figured out people were using RSI and MACD to find out what they were doing and then profiting.

The new shit is now in Wycoff and Fibonacci levels and those who can do Elliott Waves are getting stupid fucking rich, because they are literally peering into the long term plans of the insiders with these. Right now there is no defense for them but they are fine for now because few can even do them and fewer know about them.

I have a graph made a month ago using Elliott Waves on SPX/SPY and its been scary. I didn't believe it AND spent all my money on college tuition so didn't get rich but dammit.

Consider the following:
>If TA really worked, everyone would be doing it.
>If everyone was doing TA, it would really work.

IMO and experience, part of it works and part of it is mental masturbation where the user will see whatever they want to see. Actually, if you're not careful, your bias can influence even the useful information TA is showing.

Things that are useful are volume, trend lines (and their breakouts/breakdowns), channels, support/resistance levels, candlestick formations and certain chart patterns. But TA is no crystal ball, a bullish chart pattern like ascending triangles don't tell you the price WILL go up, but instead it has a higher chance to go up, and this probability is around 65-70%, so it won't always work, but it'll work most of the time. You also have to take in mind the rest of the ecosystem, especially in crypto, since most coins depend on what happens to BTC.

If you are reading the charts correctly, and always bet on the outcome with higher probability, and use proper risk management, then you'll be profitable. You won't get rich fast.

Some of the things in technical analysis that I think are bullshit (although, not everyone will agree with me) are: Elliot Wave theory, many indicators are just redundant information and often completely useless, harmonic patterns, and Fibonacci levels/ratios.

Hope that helps, user
Cheers!

This one works.

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Brokerages run analytics on their clients. If you are wrong all the time the brokerage just takes the opposite of your position. If you are right they copy your decision. If you look like you are going to be right they will stop hunt you. Thrown in the bid ask spread and fees and they make money off of 90% of their traders. They don't even have to go into the market for thier losers, they just sandbox their trades.

If TA worked that would mean the game could be won and lost with confidence that the decision yielded the results. This would mean a PC could in theory destroy any human at this and instantly make insane profits - like in online poker, a 51:49 win loss ratio iterated to infinite. Problem with the market is A. if discovered it would no longer be profitable and B. its a zero sum game as t goes to zero. If you would really put your money on beating a computer at pattern rec and data then go for it but I'm a fide chess master and I wouldnt bet 2$ on beating a decent computer at chess despite having played for two decades.

'When they win it was their skill, when they lose it was bad luck'

-unknown

It works, but it doesn't work like you are implying, it works the same way casinos make money on the roulette, even when gamblers have almost 50% chance to win by betting red or black. Casinos will win because gablers don't have 50% chance of winning, due to those two green numbers, the 0 and the 00. That 1-2% gives the casino an edge long term. TA just puts the odds in your favor, it doesn't predict the outcome, it just tells you which is the most likely outcome. It won't always be correct, but if you continue betting on the most likely outcome, and use proper risk management, then you'll turn a profit in the end. TA works, but it's not a crystal ball.

How do you cope with the people that trade in the zone for decades? The top 10, 5 or 1 percent of human traders? Luck sums to zero in the real world.

only if you backtest it, it's a probablity game

No. Econometric literature on this question has existed for a really long time and it's fairly definitive. The only real drivers of future price movement of some asset is the current price itself. It's called the Markov property and it's appearance in pricing trends is actually a direct result of the efficient-market hypothesis

Believe what you like but I promise you that the real professionals (in any form of trading) are not using technical analysis. Only hobbyists and day-traders with no formal background

>Markov property
Fully retarded. Markov properties apply to stochastic properties (random variables) and the a lot of the drivers of stock price are not random. Adoption of an underlying technology drives industry valuations (see metcalfe's law). Industries also have life cycles that include consolidation and decline.

You start digging into the fundamentals, earnings reports, 10q and 10qs you start to understand that the business and industries don't fit the requirements of stochastic properties.

You need to slap whoever mislead you. Maybe give back all the money you paid to be so retarded.

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Long-term trends are way different than what we're talking. Obviously prices today are different than prices ten or twenty years ago because the landscape of the market and its technology changes evolves slowly over time

I'm specifically talking about what technical analysis aims to do. It's supposed to be a strategy to guide people through buying dips and predicting hyper short-term fluctuations in price. This is a stochastic process and there isn't a valid scientific methodology behind doing it well

So why the common use of elliott waves and fibonacci ratios if things are "Stochastic." Why are there highly successful ichimoku cloud traders, which actually forecast support and resistance if things are stochastic?

TA is like armchair quarterbacking.

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no not really, TA just gives you an idea of the past and current state of the market, it doesn't have the 'future-telling' properties that some people attribute it with, especially not in cryptocurrency where there's unusually high volatility and not enough historical data to really analyze given how hype-driven and unpredictable the market is, TA is more valuable when there's a lot of historical data like with forex currency trading for example.

I personally use MACD, RSI, and fib retracements to judge the market but I won't pretend it reveals the future.

many successful traders have said that it's "gut instinct" and admit to being lucky. Ya they use the top technical methods available and they try to be methodical and academic with everything they do, but ultimately sometimes you just have to know when to zig and when to zag and that comes to instinct and intuitive pattern recognition. Some men are just born winners.

Who is she and does she take bbc?

TA is a meme btw

Elsa Jean and yes.

>So why the common use
Why do anti-vaxxers or climate-change deniers exist? Some people care about things they are not subject-matter experts in, so sometimes bullshit appears. True for anything that's ever existed

Serious, "highly successful" traders using these methods do not exist. Bitcoin millionaires who rode long-term trends and successful index fund investors who bet on the growth of the market exist. For all intents and purposes, nothing important happens in the short-term

>Ya they use the top technical methods available and they try to be methodical and academic with everything they do, but ultimately sometimes you just have to know when to zig and when to zag and that comes to instinct and intuitive pattern recognition. Some men are just born winners.
Instincts in trading are just patterns you haven't become fully conscious of seeing yet. You even mentioned intuitive pattern recognition. You cannot do that if you have no other patterns in your head. Look at hidden divergence. Traders a hundred years ago probably made a lot of "lucky trades" until they realized the pattern they were seeing at a lower level of consciousness.

Enough practice will turn those instinctions and intuition into a system. I would know, it happened to me as I developed my own system.

TA doesnt work u aboslute retard scammer kike thread, if it worked everyone would know how it worked and gain money

People caliming their "TA" works are bsically inside traiding information leading to swings its not "TA" its compeltely random u can not even follow long time clear patterns cause they can change this one time for no reason

consider this. the bbc is better.

Non-risk-adjusted? More or less.
Risk-adjusted? Probs not. Few studies care to actually control for that since it's pretty hard to do (can't remember the reason specifically) and I believe there are benchmarking issues as well (for both risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted), so we don't really know.

OP it doesn't matter whether or not TA is a meme the bottom line is you do whatever makes you money in this market and nothing else matters

if TA works how come there hasn't been a single billionare bitcoin trader that's all over the news/instagram?

you just need to make around 30-50 right calls to become one

>have millions at stake
>publicly announce your position to the world
>people begin counter trading you and breaking all of your set-ups
hmm

>What is opsec?
People that advertise crypto wealth get hacked you mongoloid.

ok, why isn't there a single TA trader who earned around 1m - 5m on BTC, cashed out last December because his indicators told him to, and then made a video proof of his historical trades?

Yes, but not in a market where literally every asset is weighted to one giant master asset

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>I'm a social media attention whore so everyone must be.
>Must fit my exact criteria of 1-5m with CV, proof of address, and full trading history posted for international audit.

Hilarity aside, philakone's a pretty good example of a wealthy trader. He's also a good example of what happens to a trader when they publicly post about their wealth and trading positions (been hacked and had bank accounts raped multiple times, had to change address, gets stream-sniped when he posts live trades).
But yeah
>hurr durr why doesn't everyone tell me how rich they are

There is. His name is Peter Brandt.

Can you beat windows chess at level 10?

I am on tradingview. I post about 80% of my system when I am trading and I let the community know when I get stopped out or taken for a ride, and I let them know where my wins are. But I don't tell everyone everything. That would be fully retarded.

Also, letting people know you have trading gains is one of the worse things you can do because it fucks with their heads. They don't know what goes into trading so they think it is stress free easy come gains. My brother is a financial advisor and he deals with people that lost friends over financial sucess. People can be to insecure to see you driving a new car or how nice your new house is, or where you can afford to eat or our go on vacation.

That is why so many rich people are in politics or volunteer clubs. They need to be around people that won't hate them for their money, like the rest of the muggles.

>supports
>resistances
>Volume
>fib levels.
>RSI

Literally all that is worth looking at. sometimes a hammer candle stick can be useful, of a hangman.

>ITT: brainlets that don't know their subject matter making armchair assumptions

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This guy is the definition of the "I win again" smuggie, holy shit.

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pretty much this.
Also IMO if a pattern/method/tool appears to work - people will start frontrunning it and then it would stop working.
Perhaps the only thing you could implement as TA is just find some low/support point on an asset (crypto) which you feel would be super undervalued at and put a buy order there.

Use 90% fundamentals in your decision making. Also, crypto is mostly bulshit gambling.

I call tops and bottoms pretty well with RSI/MACD bearish and bullish divergence and candlestick patterns. With crypto I am getting 10-20R when I am right and a few buggered entries were and there are well paid for at the end of the completed trade.

Understanding the types and styles of traders involved in the market is extremely important as well. It is advantageous to understand each perspective. You'll be much less prone to kneejerk reacting to sudden movements when you know, roughly, what large scale traders are attempting to do, assess whether they will be successful, and adjust your position accordingly (or recognize it as a fake out and do nothing).

Wow astrology must be really accurate then

I wish I understood the mentality held by people duped by TA, multi-level-marketing, etc

Why do you feel obligated to defend systems that screw you over? Is it just a pride thing, or do you genuinely believe you can 'turn it around' at some future point in time? Why keep LARPing when it costs you so much?

Algo trading, conventional bots and arbitrage bots all exist, user. Each has its own strengths and weaknesses.

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90% of the TA people do is totally misguided and wrong. On biz that percentage is 99%.

It's more of a 'fooled by randomness" type of thing. Like it or not, some people are making a shit ton of money with it and you're not invited to the party.

If most traders just understood RSI and had a bit more patience they wouldn't buy the top and sell the bottom. I made my worst trades when thought the RSI was too simple and "moved on" to other indicators. But I ended up with a reminder between the difference in simple versus fundamental.

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I have posted some top shelf TA and been called a retarded nigger faggot for it. Sometimes I hate this place.

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yeah. this place is pretty shitty and needs a reformation / purge.

the /ent/ thread going we've got is pretty fucking good, quality content breeds quality content. next is generals for FA, TA, and beginner QA.

Then we establish generals for coins so that telegrams / discord groups will stop spamming 30 fucking threads for a coin of the week.

And Jow Forums has to go.

what do we do about the Jow Forumsish question?

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>the /ent/ thread going we've got is pretty fucking good, quality content breeds quality content.
>And Jow Forums has to go.
I don't think so, you fucking degenerate.

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*blocks your path*

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I have a finance degree. Not that I used it. But all of the teachers say that it is about keeping up with current news in the market, paying attention to the leadership of the company, and actually believing in it.

All of the ratios you can do with financial data cant tell you much except for will the company be able to pay their bills and what are their future investment options. You need to actually believe the direction of the company. That's it.

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I believe Chinese netflix is going to have exponential adoption, especially since China still has a long way to go with broadband penetration.

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elevate higher discussion on this board and keep it on-topic. this is cryptocurrency board with loose connections to business and finance. it isn't an issue of forcing people people to leave because of their political beliefs, but more encouraging intelligent converation so every fucking time you post a smallcap there's more discussion than "SHOO SHOO PAJEET." Discussion of technology is probably a good antidote to that, if we have actual developers talking about using products and white papers it becomes easier for everyone to identify wheat from chaff.

Calling people pajeets isn't inherently degrading to board content, because it's actually a good way to deter outsiders from spamming this board with actual harmful scams.

But holy fucking hell do people here misuse it simply because they just. don't. know. how. to actually evaluate projects and trade independently. I don't even think it's necessarily people "fudding," I think they genuinely just don't how to evaluate project's until it hits a 1 billion mkcap.

Any recommended reading material?

Read up on bearish and bullish divergence and hidden divergence. Best way to learn is to stumble your way through your own research. Once you know what bearish and bullish divergence look like go to tradingview or youtube and look at peoples example on the charts.

Get spun up on candlestick patterns and basic charts. Once again, look at tradingview and youtube for examples of people doing a good job. Re-read your top resources.

Keep a trade journal to plot out your trades. Posting my charts and explaining the strengths and weakness makes me a better trader because usually the trades I didn't want to write down were shit trades I never should have taken.

Write your after actions for your bad trades and what went wrong. Were you focusing too much on the hourly charts and missed the daily RSI being high? Did you miss hidden divergence? Did you get impatient and put a long in when the RSI was running across the top? Were you so over-confident you neglected to put stops in? Are your stops always too tight? Plan on how to fix these problems.

Shit pays off. And for God sakes, babystep yourself with leverage.

Can't spite daddy by hooking up with a doctor.

>Any recommended reading material?

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>field professionals, 100 years of academic literature, high sample size studies of payoffs using TA methods
"This is basically pseudoscience garbage, none of these methodologies have any meaningful backing and these techniques do not yield any profits at all, given enough trades are made"

>that dude from college with $300 in a robinhood account/some rando on biz/your boomer dad
"Top Three Indicators That Will Make You Filthy Rich In Just Two Weeks! Quit Your Day Job And Pay Off All That Credit Card debt Instantly! Warining: Only Use These Methods If You Want to Be Super Wealthy!"

Really hard to know who to trust here

but dude don't you know anyone who dislikes TA is from Jow Forums
you don't want to be like hitler do you
open that bitmex account now

???

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>June 6th
>July 6th

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does anyone else have failed TA?

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>Fags who study volume at time not volume at price...
He should have taken that to the next level with renko.

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What's that bargraph on the right?
Volume by price? What's it called?

thats a shitty volume profile with not enough bins. obviously being used by an idiot

Yes

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TA is basically a pyramid ponzi meme.
Greater fool theory at its best.. works because other suckers think it will work.

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After you can analyze fundamentals (cash flow, balance sheets, market cap/assets, etc.), and after you have an understanding of the underlying business (catalysts, industry trends, etc.), and after you have input from SME's or industry insiders--then yes, there is a place for trend analysis. It mostly just tells you what the TA sheep are thinking.

The reason many people think that it doesn't work, is because there seem to be no reason for the price of a stock (or coin or whatever) to go up/down just because it's near a line or after a certain pattern has formed. Our brain evolved to recognize patterns and we do it even in a system of random points, so we could very well be doing it in financial markets charts. But if you pay attention to the charts, you will see that there is too much order in something that's supposed to be unpredictable. To be clear, there's unpredictability in the market, and at any moment you could have a completely unexpected price driven by fundamentals or things like whales wanting to influence the price, but most of the time there seems to be something else, some sort of order. It could be related to chaos theory or perhaps crowd intelligence, I don't know, no one really knows, and because no one knows, there's a lot of skepticism regarding TA from a lot of people.

But take for example this weird phenomenon that happens with crowds and averages. To me, this seems even weirder than TA, and perhaps, it may be related. This may be why TA works better in stocks/coins with big mcaps and volume.

youtu.be/iOucwX7Z1HU

TA is not necessary to become a good trader, so I think each person should find their own system, whatever works for them. I know there are many elements of TA that work for me.

No

Quantitative analysis does.

I completed a full technical analysis of your moms anus, worked perfectly well. bullish!

eh. that's questionable too. The only thing that's guaranteed to work is shorting the shit out of options with your fat stash of cash until the market collapses and you get filthy rich while wallstreet cucks start jumping off buildings.

If there was some actual pattern why wouldn't you just use machine learning to learn the pattern?

>eh. that's questionable too.

It's as close as you're going to get atm

late as fuck to ask this so I doubt you're still here but what do you mean by understanding RSI? is there something more that you see in it rather than overbought/oversold conditions? I'll have to pay more attention to divergences for the future as well

the only guy i know personally who does ta (stocks) made a ton of money.
he also believes in fengshui and bazi (chinese astrology)

I wouldn't know how to do that. But someone who is proficient in AI and/or programming could probably do it. Why it hasn't been done? I don't know, but a few reasons I could think is that, first, while TA could be used on its own, it works much better when applied knowing the conditions in the market. For example, during the last BTC bull run, chart patterns like rising wedges, which are bearish, started to break out upwards, again and again when BTC went above 8K. What this was telling me was that at that point BTC was unstoppable, and in fact, it went much higher than anyone would have expected. During a normal market, I think a machine could recognize these patterns, but they are so easy for humans to recognize, that an AI wouldn't be enhancing our ability to see them, so I'm not sure what would be the benefit. Another possible reason is that a computer or AI could process an incredible amount of data, beyond human capabilities, and use this data much more effectively than any chart pattern. Chart patterns are useful to us humans, they will give you an accuracy level of 60% to 70%, which seems low, but it's a huge edge, when you are talking about probabilities. But even then, if you are a bad trader and do something stupid like go all in on something just because you see a chart pattern, you could en up losing money. If you don't have a good strategy, it doesn't matter how good at TA you are, you'll lose it all. TA is just a tool that could give you an edge, your strategy is much more important.

Look at the job description of any modern trading positions. They all optimize trading bots. So yes they would.

It has been done. Wallstreet has been doing it for years.

Sounds like a pretty good ELI5 of TA, frankly.

It's not surprising, it shouldn't be too hard to do, but it's probably not the most important piece of information a computer algorithm uses to determine what to do.