What will happen to the value of housing in the very long run (e.g. 30 years)?
It seems reasonable to assume that within 30 years we will have advanced far enough in terms of automation that we will be able to produce houses much faster and using much less labor. Surely this will have a severely negative impact on housing values?
30 years is not a super long time in terms of housing. Most mortgages in the US now run for 30 years. If something this important to the economy is massively disrupted over a 30-year timescale, what is the impact on the economy as a whole? It doesn't look good to me.
The cost of the actual building itself is nothing compared to the value of the lands. Most people want to live in cities for the amenity and economic opportunity. The value of housing in major cities is not going to go down unless the population starts falling or people change their mind about living in cities.
Blake Wood
When you say 'economic opportunity' you are referring to jobs - what happens in a few decades when the structural rate of unemployment is dramatically higher as a result of said automation?
Kayden Turner
yes i am referring to jobs, specifically high paying service jobs. these are unlikely to be replaced by automation in the time period you are talking about.
David Lopez
Cities are in a bubble, when the debt bubble bursts there will be resource shortages and cities will see an exodus. I'd like to see a chart of housing, are we doing a double top? We are around the same levels as 2007. Of course this affects high population areas while rural areas are much less effected.
Joshua Jackson
The cost of housing has gone up while the quality has gone down. Don't fool yourself, would you rather live in a house that was built 100 years ago, and still stands? or a house that already started falling apart at 20 years just because it was made out of cheap siding and OSB?
Blake Moore
In the long term you can't really lose by having real estate. In the short term housing prices are going to crash, though.
Angel Cooper
>when the debt bubble bursts there will be resource shortages and cities will see an exodus
why? at worst the value of property may go down, but there's no reason people will leave and no reason there would be shortages
the rural people are going to take whatever price the city can pay them at the end of the day. better to sell their crops at a lower price than thrown them away
