We try to figure out what will cause the next recession.
10y to 2y spread us bonds is at 0.3. if it goes below 0, which will happen fast, it will take on average 12 months before the next recession starts.
My top tipp are pension funds. I read an article about the biggest one in the world, apparently located in CA, is pretty much broke.
Your tips?
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There will not be a recession
The things you mention are deeply known about
Markets set to rally after the yield curve inversion for years
>over 9 years into bull market
>there will be no recession and market will go up for years
not sure what planet you live on, but it's certainly not earth lol
>what will cause the next recession
Trump's trade war. it's already fucking over the agriculture industry. but nobody's talking about it
tell me more!
what I've read this is the highest risk people think about right now.
There was a good graphic at upfina com I might find it
theconversation.com
Honestly since ive been alive a recession seems to happen every decade or so. We are due a financial collapse right avout now.
I know that you have never looked at the sp500 chart before the year 2000, but you should really study the history if you want your opinion to have merit :)
hopefully its caused by something bad ass like WW3 or alien invasion
recency bias
also
>past performance isn't indicative of future gains.
The whole financial world is expecting a recession, thus it won't happen. Wait till everything is upbeat, better than it's ever been.
BOOM...(or should I say bust)
the pension crisis could be triggered by a recession, not the other way around.
but it could end a few ways:
1. pensions are renegotiated or cut which is better for the greater good. old people are irrelevant since they dont spend money or raise families and are too decrepit to riot, and no young person cares about the ridiculous pensions they promised themselves. the anti-boomer propaganda is working and we are being set up for this.
2. govt robs productive citizens to keep the olds fat and happy
realistically, the best option for the govt is 1. keeping the productive citizenship happy is more important than promises to old people. also, it is better for the holy shareholder, because like i said, young people spend more money and make more babies for the capitalist ponzi funnel.
2 could be in progress as we speak. these pension funds are doing ok now because of the ridiculous valuations of everything
people have predicted it a million times and it's never happened, but i would say china. maybe i've read too much anti-china propaganda, but if they have a lot of debt and bankruptcy issues, it could trigger a selloff of US assets. from my perspective, i see it as an opportunity rather than a crisis, but it would have some downstream effects which could cause a recession.
are you retarded
recency bias would say I'm not predicting a recession, market has been up for 9 years you fucktard, man
also no one is expecting a recession, take a look at the stock lol
As long as the wealth gap keeps increasing a recession won't happen. Millennials rent overpriced apartments from boomers, who then put that money into the market promoting this huge growth.
Recession will not happen until the boomers begin to die off. Soon enough their money will start going towards medical bills.
thought about the cause effect relationship as well. Good points!
the next recession will probably be caused by some combination of the US federal reserve continuing to raise interest rates to keep inflation steady (which is their prerogative and absolutely the correct thing to do, in any case), deregulation and greed leading to malfeasance by the financial sector (over-leveraging and liberal or outright fraudulent lending policies), the trade war (basically the most obvious unforced error in history), along with a total lack of government willpower or ability to combat falling spending and employment with stimulus due to debt.
i think i'm one of the only people here who liked obama and thought he was a steady hand on economics, and was hoping whoever the fuck the next president was would leverage the continuing economic recovery to further reduce the deficit and maybe even get us back to a surplus. that is now a complete lost cause. i have no idea why anyone thinks the time to cut taxes is with 4.5% and falling unemployment and inflationary pressure lurking. adding the trade war on top of that is likely to cause a lot of problems. we will see. i'm not selling my stock but all my new money is going into bonds to hedge. might get crushed there if yields spike. don't see safety anywhere really.
Old people reliably vote though. Keeping productive people happy doesn't matter much if they won't put you in office.
Shut up faggot no one likes taxes
If you think Trump is gonna pay back debts to a bunch of faggots that tried to kill America you got another thing coming.
k well enjoy the collapse of the US dollar
you're all-in on cuckcoin or whatever the fuck you'll be fine
>UK->US auto imports @ 2.5%
>US->UK auto imports @ 10%
I’ll bear a recession to see this shit come to an end.
You liked Obama because his policies didn't affect you negatively.
What if I told you that the point of cutting corporate taxes was in order to start the trade war? If every country keeps raising tariffs, it's now more logical for companies to focus on business in the US.
$5/Gallon gas
Blue board dumb ass
wow can actual intelligent post guess what you are not posting in the right place everyone here is holo-investing retards.
also tech. twitter and fb were not anomalies. it was similar to the tether scandal, a sign of fucked up shit to come that people havent truly felt yet.
alex jones being banned by everyone simultaneously and the sarah jeong fiasco are more evidence. be ready to sell ur shit at a moments notice.
Protip: a crisis starts after a bubble period where everyone is beyond euphoric, no one seems any risk
Then a crash happens, idiots buy the falling knife
Keeps going down, entire world economy goes down with the US
Want to know when the next crisis will happen? Wait for the bubble, and realize when it bursts (both easily done with momentum indicators)
us dollar is evolving not collapsing
go look at what russia did after meeting with trump
Might be what says: a tech crash.
>bonds
lmao
the crash will hurt, and btcfags will sit at the top of the pyramid
boomerconomics are over
>if only we followed "X" policies, we could have avoided the USD collapse!!
imagine
Here are some markets that I would like to see crash:
>studen loan debt
>boomer pensions
>housing market
>tech companies
>EU debt
Its like a cogwheel under too much tension and low interest rates is the lubrication. Once the cheap money is gone small pieces in the system will break off.
Things are different then they were 10 years ago though. Markets are more connected and thinking in terms of domestic economy and international is wrong since they turned into one big shoe.
My craziest guess is that most of EU will turn into what used to be "third world" or developing world, US will remain somewhat stable because of their currency backed by aircraft carriers. China will be a new powerhouse and Africa will turn into what was China 20 years ago.
Or we just have a big correction, write off debt and crypto and gold fags will be the new kings and queenz.
Inflation
On October 31st of this year, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to sell off over 20 billion in UST and almost 10 billion in MBS. Looking at the correlation between the fed’s financial engineering and the markets, this could be a killer, especially in prelude to the mid term elections happening in November. This could be a plot to oust Trump who has taken full credit for the market’s rise
That, or China sells off all its UST to cause a yield spike which kills our market in revenge for their own Shanghai Composite being in a recession. The yield spike is a market killer since corporate debt levels are at a record now (or almost) and this would trigger a massive sell off to finance said debt
>deregulation and greed
>i think i'm one of the only people here who liked obama
Got those historical blinkers on I see, very good goy.
> will probably be caused by some combination of the US federal reserve continuing to raise interest rates to keep inflation steady
Either that or the Australians are correct and the use of inflation to reach full employment and manipulate the signals that prices constitute has lead to a misallocations of capital and resources, so the projects that were unsustainable will be found to be so far down the line and corresponding reaction to late into the business cycle will create another bust after an artificial boom.
Either way somethings going to cause it. I just hope we get to see another "Peter Schiff was right" video and get to see the reaction from smug obongo kitters like you.
The market is so conservative that P/Es are quickly approaching highs leading to the last crisis? Based on the numbers, it looks to me like Wall Street is expecting the next ten years to be a pure fucking golden era
It's think. You've got another think coming. You sound like a damn fool when you say it wrong.
>US has a debt problem
>hurr better put all my money into bonds
Are you retarded? That's like buying a house if you think there's a housing bubble.
>actually browsing Jow Forums at work
Fuck shouldn't I be?
Isn't it funny how a strip of butt floss and pasties the size of quarters are enough to to distinguish between worksafe and NSFW?
Yes, you're right user.
'another think coming'.
Doesn't roll off the tongue as well though.
I've seen some UFOs (probably man made, but flew with impossible speed)
I'm pretty sure ayy lmaos are lmao'ing at our way of life and are waiting for ww3 so they can move in after we are dead
yeah it will cause a recession in export based economies. Yuan is already devalued 9% this year to the USD by trumps big cock