Alts have no hope of outperforming BTC until well into the next bull run. Certainly not until Bitcoin breaks its ATH, at a bare minimum.
Possible exceptions might be the new coinbase coins (if a coinbase listing still has any effect on price, which is doubtful), and MAYBE chainlink if it really turns out to be the key to the fourth industrial revolution. But every other alt is just an overvalued piece of shit solution looking for a problem. Yes, doesn't matter if they're all down 95%, most are still overvalued by a factor of at least 10x and they're going to keep bleeding out for the indeterminate future.
I know the cycle of abuse, you married your alts during the bull run, they gave you green dildos, you thought they completed you and were going to lift you out of your wageslave misery. Then the last 6 months happened, wave after wave of red and abuse, now you're like a battered housewife who still believes she can turn her husband back around if she just sticks with him a little longer. You're an emotional hostage. You don't want to sell your alts because it locks you into the sat value you're at right now, which is probably 50-75% worse off than your value in sats in January, and you refuse to accept being 'stuck there' forever.
Please anons, just take a step back, understand how market cycles work, and appreciate how holding alts right now (even good alts, whatever those are) is a lose/lose proposition until daddy shitcoin wakes up again. At a bare minimum we have until the VanEyck ETF gets approved (or denied!). Until then, holding alts is financial suicide. Keep a 1k LINK stack for insurance, stay 10% in alts maximum if you really can't sever your emotional ties with them completely. But that should be IT.
I'm not a doomsdayer, probably every shitcoin in the market that can stay afloat until the next bull will probably see new ATHs eventually. But 'eventually' is not tomorrow, next month, or even necessarily next year. So act accordingly.
You dumb kike, alts are where the interesting shit is happening.
Nolan Allen
so youre saying I should sell my alts for bitcoin at a satoshi loss, then wait for btc to rise, then wait for alts to rise, and then buy the alts when theyre going up at a higher price?
>interesting shit Yeah, and nobody's interested in interesting shit right now. They're interested in stability and sure bets. BTC jumping to at least 50k when the ETF gets inevitably approved is the surest bet in the space right now. It's boring, it's a dinosaur coin, it sucks, but it's the truth. And if the ETF gets denied, you better bet your sad bagholding ass you're not in any shitcoins when it happens because the dump on altcoins will be absolute, meriless and instantaneous, with no fucking survivors. That would signal a new true crypto winter and BTC dominance will probably pop back to 80% overnight (even as BTC halves in value overnight... you do the math what that means for alts)
Josiah Roberts
If they aren't in btc and link yet that's all wasted text they will never change
Anthony Garcia
No, look at the image. Alts lag behind BTC during bull runs. It's hard to remember but it was actually vastly more profitable just sitting tight with Bitcoin vs the average altcoin during the last bull run, up until late November. Alt season really only lasted a couple of months, then we got a few echoes of it during February and May, but those echoes are gone now.
The sane thing to do would be to park 100% in BTC until it's gone past its all-time high. Then as it hits 30k, 40, 50k, etc, move larger and larger percentages back into alts at every benchmark.
I know you love your alts, I know I sure fucking loved mine, but you need to learn what the market is doing and act appropriately.
Samuel Young
this.
now is the time to dca into alts you retards.
protip: DCA I said.
Jeremiah Young
With 90% of alts going to 0, your risk is fairly high.
Luis Rivera
you permabears are just as worse than normies fomoing into btc at 19k last december.
kys you faggots. now is the time of max financial opportunity.
Oliver Martin
just as bad* i think it is kek
fuck this retarded burger language
Joshua Harris
Yes, definitely, during a bear market with no clear end in sight where speculative money is leaking out of the market more and more daily. Definitely the time to buy into 5-man projects with no working product that nobody is lining up to adopt anyways, that would be lucky to get $100k in venture funding normally but are currently valued at $10M or $100M dollars (that's AFTER a 90% drop).
You don't want to face reality. LOOK at the charts. Alts lag after bitcoin. Period. You don't want them to, you don't think it's fair that they do, but they do. There is no reason to get into alts until Bitcoin makes moves. Period. You're holding onto a deluded notion that bitcoin will become obsolete within the next 6 months and your shitcoins will take primacy in a glorious coup de gras, but you've been wrong for up to 8 years about that and are likely to continue to be wrong about that.
Nathaniel Moore
name calling = emotional bagholder, just proving op's point. if you had faith in your financial decisions you could argue them with a level head without snapping at people
also he didn't say he was a permabear, he said most alts will see new highs eventually. all he said was that it would be obvious when it was time to get back into altcoins because they trail after btc like ducklings after mama duck.
Christopher Murphy
Your theory is bullshit. If you want proof, look at Binance (BNB) token.
Thomas Campbell
>I know the cycle of abuse, you married your alts during the bull run, they gave you green dildos, you thought they completed you and were going to lift you out of your wageslave misery. Then the last 6 months happened, wave after wave of red and abuse, now you're like a battered housewife who still believes she can turn her husband back around if she just sticks with him a little longer. You're an emotional hostage. You don't want to sell your alts because it locks you into the sat value you're at right now, which is probably 50-75% worse off than your value in sats in January, and you refuse to accept being 'stuck there' forever.
That's a decent example, I will concede it is an exception to the rule since as an exchange token it thrives on volume regardless whether the market is bear or bull. But even among exchange tokens it's a bit of a unicorn, it's not like COSS or KuckCoin have made sick gains in the past 6 months.
Of course random shit moons in a bear market, random shit even sometimes goes up and stays there in a bear market. That doesn't invalidate anything I said. The question to be asked is if the average alt (ie, all the alts you IN PROBABILITY are holding, because you IN PROBABILITY don't have any special ability to pick winners instead of losers) makes sense to hold at the present time.
Sebastian Miller
I started with a portfolio worth 0.5 btc, only bought alts, and currently have a portfolio worth 11 btc.
I can’t time the market because I’m dumb, I don’t know when Bitcoin will rally or when alts will. But what I do know is that in the long term alts always outperform Bitcoin.
Jose Anderson
>trying to time the market at -94% instead of starting to dca thats pic related user.
yes somebody who held alts during the last 7 months is retarded BUT now is the time user.
What has been the precipitating event that caused alts to rise, in every last major alt run? It was BTC going up and sucking speculative money into the space. Every time.
BTC is speculative, and alts moreso. Nobody buys JesusCoin right now. People were buying JesusCoin during the December run. Why? Because the market had hit a level of optimism that made buying JesusCoin sound like a reasonable financial decision instead of sounding like throwing your money into a black hole. The market can't reach a level of optimism that makes buying alts palatable to outside money unless it's first reached a level of optimism that makes buying BTC palatable to outside money.
Adam Brown
>>trying to time the market at -88% instead of starting to dca Were you saying that a month ago? How does it feel to be down 50% right now because you thought you'd TIMED the bottom back then? How will it feel a month from now when we're down -96%?
The evidence for when alts will start rising is clear as day every time. You're just afraid to go back, read the charts, and admit to yourself that you're a bear market bagholder. It's not 'timing' anything to wait for the clearest and most consistent cue in cryptospace - namely, BTC breaking an ath - before flowing into alts.
It's not a sure bet, but it's surer than your altcoins rising 800% before BTC does if the news comes out, and definitely surer than your altcoins outperforming BTC if the ETF gets denied.
Thomas Bailey
Dont listen to the other morons in this thread. This is good info user thanks
Jordan Gray
I think alts will come up with bitcoin at first, then we'll have an opportunity to move to btc as it breaks away by it's self, then at btc top, go back into alts as you said
Caleb Harris
If you look at the image, you would see that it was true last year as well.
Look you faggy op, let me make this simple for you. I want to get rich . Not just “make a little profit”. I’m not interested in a base hit. I want a home run. The only way to possibly do that is alts. Sure, it’s a gamble. But btc is not going to x100 or make you rich at this point. Certain alts could tho.
Isaiah Campbell
Do you even know how to read you fucking retard? He is not saying alts won't make you rich, he is saying that alts only pop after BTC made a run, because all that new BTC money then gambles on alts.
So, alts will continue to bleed until BTC goes on a run, then the money flows into the alts. If BTC is not going for a run, then you might as well stay on the sidelines because those alts will bleed as the money slowly moves into BTC to wait for the next BTC run.
Levi Mitchell
That is correct. I'll be DCAing into alts when BTC hits 20k, 30k, 40k, etc. But there is no reason to hold them until we hit, at bare minimum, that ATH milestone for bitcoin. There will not be the level of market enthusiasm necessary to pump altcoins dramatically until bitcoin is well on its way to 100k.
Gavin Hall
>I know you love your alts, I know I sure fucking loved mine, but you need to learn what the market is doing and act appropriately. another burned link swing trader
Caleb Gutierrez
Actually I held from 90 cents to 40 cents and sold off all but my 5k suicide stack at that point. I've not done any trades on LINK since. I fully admit that holding any LINK is probably a mistake until bitcone makes moves again, but I've been on Jow Forums for a whole year now and the memes have absolutely distorted my ability to look at LINK rationally. It's essentially my crypto comfort blanket at this point, an emotional indulgence. Not smart, but it helps me sleep at night.
Xavier Powell
If BTC/ETH has less dominance in the on-ramp department during the next bullrun, this theory becomes invalid. Interesting though.
Luke Gutierrez
>this happens every january >this happens every rally Nice Btc maximalist cope. Sorry bud but the market is changing. Nobody wants your myspace shitcoin anymore for investment. Btc holds its value only because most alts has it as pair. That is changing. Your old unscalable piece of shit will die. Tik tok user, tik tok.
Zachary Diaz
Not necessarily. It's true if we get Fiat onramp on Binance, or FairX or etc, money doesn't necessarily have to pump up BTC first before trickling into alts. But from a market psychology standpoint, it still requires a much greater degree of confidence in crypto to entice people to invest in, idk, COSS or REQ or SGR or ELIX or etc or etc or etc, than it does to entice people to invest in BTC.
Hell, I would suppose most of us think that BTC hitting $100k sooner or later is basically an inevitability by now, barring another black swan like Gox or quantum hacking. The same can't be said for altcoins broadly. Many of them are liable to crash and burn, exit scam, etc. So there's your answer right there as to which asset class new money is going to dip its toes into first when the market turns around.
Ryan Powell
>2018 >still buying whitepaper shitcoins It's like your eyes can't see cubes
>BTC jumping to at least 50k when the ETF gets inevitably approved is the surest bet in the space right now Unsurest bet more like. Better chance of Linkies making it than ETF going through.
Easton Bailey
Yes, I'm sure TPTB that are all lining up and have been lining up for the past 6 months to get into, specifically, BTC via ETFs, new bitcoin-settled futures, new custody solutions, funds and even 401k participation, are all deluded and buying into something with no demand and no future. Massive institutional money is eyeballing BTC as the next store of wealth paradigm. All it needs to do is keep its value over time and it will provide more utility than 99% of altcoins ever will.
And I am not a maximalist, but you have to have your head up your ass not to see that the next months are all going to be about greater institutional adoption of BTC as a store of value. All eyes are on BTC to see whether ETF, ICE futures, Bakkt, etc etc all come to fruition or not. No major money is going to throw in with alts until that business is settled. And it will be obvious when that business is settled because BTC will be soaring past 20k.
Why not just leverage trade bitcoin instead of gambling on alts?
Noah Lopez
dude it was fashionable to say this shit during january peak euphoria, now you just look like a clueless nard. yeah this asset which has existed longer than any other cryptoasset, which has never been directly hacked unlike most other cryptoassets, which is being sized up by the nwo as this millenium's answer to gold, which decreased in value 65% is a piece of shit investment that doesn't hold a candle to these other assets which are buggy, have no product or or a product that doesn't work, have mostly existed for less than a year and which all dropped 95% in the past 6 months.
you're not an underdog, you're just an idiot
Jace Peterson
Newfags living of past trends. Btc reach 20k without all that supossedly "lined up money". The new ETFs denials till february 2019 will be the nails in the coffin for btc, bringing all the market underwater for quite some time. And thats when your shitcoins will come alive again without btc leading the market.
No wonder how you all get dumped on.
Blake James
Here's why I think you're wrong OP: everyone is expecting this.
Sooner or later there will be a decoupling, as people realize there are solid alternatives to BTC and that crypto is much more than just a completely transparent, non-fungible blockchain.
I would rather hold alts and waiting for a decoupling ( due to some grey swan event, eg widespread Fiat pairs, actually successful altcoins, china relegalizes and announces it wants to develop on NEO, etc) than hold btc and wait for my boomer-tier returns.
Even if btc does moon alts will follow harder as they always do, unless the fed pulls all the easy money our of the system and we get the crash (which is why Im holding silver). So why be a sperg sweat out the markets and try to time it? Crypto market cap is still insignificant compared to where it should be
Joshua Morgan
geee , look whats happening right this second. btc is fuckng freefalling, and my alts are actualy going up in SAT value. dumbass op. hope you feel humiliated now.
Robert Murphy
If you buy anything when Bitcoin is at the peak you are going to get justed. You could play bounces on the way down, but why would you buy the top? Are you implying that Bitcoin can go down in price without dragging alts with it?
Ethan Nelson
This is the redpill I wish I knew in January. Would have unloaded all my alts right then.
Sebastian Martin
Remember: OP is saying this right as ETH is decoupling from BTC. Look at the charts, ETH is no longer hinged to BTC, it is actually finding its own support. These are the first steps of the flippening... OP is trying to fuck you guys over big time
Because you can be liquidated leverage trading btc and be left with exactly shit. Alts are like using leverage, but if your timing is off and you have the stomach for it you can ride out even the roughest waters until your position recovers.
Matthew Ramirez
Holding alts is financial suicide. If you ever get stuck holding any alt you've fucked up
Hudson Brooks
ETH will flip bitcoin soon enough. OP will be BTFO as always
Robert Gomez
Good work OP
James Gomez
Can someone please drop a PDF of the full report ?
Except he said it lags. So alts will crash in few days. As has been the case all year hence your alts aren't worth more.
Jackson Phillips
are you actually retarded?
Zachary Evans
>(deeper into risk) Holy fuck that part totally New Paradigmed my shit. Think about it, taking investment as a descending ladder into risk with every profitable milestone resulting in a step down and an increase in risk of the general public, and every crash being step up. It seems as something obvious when worded like that but for some reason no one actually sees it that way and everyone pulls some autistic model that totally misses the point and collapses on its own complexity, while this is simple and elegant.
Take crypto as that picture says - there you have it, profitability of alts and why alts exist in the first place fully explained. Then move onto the stock market - boom, the reason why literal shit like Netflix is illogically getting such results while Amazon starts from an inflated price and keeps inflating to retarded levels - it was all merely a step down that ladder of risk and investors seeking riskier investments due to the prolonged boom.
So following that model you don't even need TA or anything at that, all you need is to realize when the market is about to step up the risk ladder and pull your money, and when it starts descending into risk again simply put your money in the riskiest investments possible, in the exact same way the economy reached peak profitability those last few years and suddenly the most risky and idiotic investment, cryptos, became insanely profitable and sought by everyone, and with every news of a third world war becoming a possibility, crypto crashed. The usual theory is that global conflicts would drive the price of crypto up because "muh new gold", total fucking bullshit, they will drive it down because people will seek concrete safety, not some meme code that costs a few thousands. It all makes sense now - GET YOUR MONEY OUT OF CRYPTO RIGHT FUCKING NOW because this decade-long boom is about to end.
Isaac Bailey
kk
Adrian Jenkins
K
Lincoln Young
based and redpilled only way an alt would go up to a new ATH now is acutal usage and adoption and besides LINK (and maybe a few others out of hundreds) I don't see anything meeting that requirement. 30% link, 70% btc and you're set
Adam Green
That’s all right except the last sentence
Nathaniel Sullivan
ETH certainly did rise on its own. Things are different now, the tech some alts puts out is actually getting adopted by real businesses. I stay with those.
Christian Wood
nice digis, what are your picks user, lets hear it friend
Great thread BTW OP, really enjoyed your musings and thoughts. I too think we may see the primary decoupling event. A lot of people are going to be puking blood in the coming weeks. I am DCA'ing full in on BTC as she drops. ETH may well slam through 300. This will ultimately be a "fire sale" on alts for some time. Until BTC is doing better no one is going to want to touch that shit.
This is pure bagholder delusion. Alts and shits are more speculative instruments than BTC and require more market optimism than BTC for money to feel comfortable getting involved. I know you hate it but Bitcoin is absolutely a canary for the whole market and if it's not singing, then there's no chance of alts making major moves.
>everyone is expecting this. Clearly not, as half the people in this thread are dead certain that bitcoin's going to die in the next 6 months and alts are going to experience your glorious decoupling event.
>Even if btc does moon alts will follow harder as they always do Exactly. So wait for btc to moon and then funnel into alts.
> So why be a sperg sweat out the markets and try to time it? Because all alt holders think this is the bottom, just like they thought last month was the bottom, and the month before it, and the month before that, and etc. Most of these altcoins have valuations that are still just absurd vs what they have delivered to date. Plenty of room to keep falling. A lot of people think that because their shitcoins have dropped 90% in value they may as well hold because they can only drop 10% more. Which isn't true - they can drop another 90%, then another 90%, then another and another.
I'm not saying alts ALL fall more, just that there's no reason to keep in them and risk having them fall more when you can park your funds in big daddy and wait for him to wake up before moving back to alts.
Alexander Barnes
Whatever you say, the intrinsic value of ETH is 0, just like BTC. There is one thing going for BTC though, the ETF IS coming, for ETH, maybe, but definitely after BTC and potentially not if they have too much trouble harnessing BTC early on. Tell me again WHY is ETH finding support other than PURE speculation?
BTC hit its latest peak around December 17. It absolutely would have been profitable to funnel into alts at that point in time. They kept ballooning for another 3-4 weeks past that point. Most altcoin ATHs in sats were in the second week of January.
But I'm not saying to try to time the top, ALL I am saying is that altcoins don't wake up until after btc does, so why not wait for btc to wake up before starting to dca into alts.
>decoupling You're right, it just decoupled -4% in sats. Very impressive.
Lincoln Stewart
>Definitely the time to buy into 5-man projects with no working product that nobody is lining up to adopt anyways, that would be lucky to get $100k in venture funding normally but are currently valued at $10M or $100M dollars (that's AFTER a 90% drop).
I buy all my altcoins with ETH My portfolio is 100% alts
Juan Cook
>I'm going to be the final bag holder Do you have something more than that to say or?
Aaron Foster
How has that worked out for you this year so far?
Leo Morgan
>Keep a 1k LINK stack for insurance, Thanks for the write up but I’ll keep my 100% all in 100k link stack for insurance.
Wyatt Moore
You know you can buy non shit alts like BAT, GVT, or XEM right?
Oliver Cook
You realise you just wrote out paragraphs stating what anyone with a brain has known for months?
Anyone who isnt retarded sold alts in july at the very latest. The laggards which make the majority will hold till the end just like they putchased the top of the bubble.
Every last person on earth thought their alts weren't the shit alts, though. They thought they'd separated the wheat from the chaff. Turns out they were all wrong about most of their picks. More than likely you're wrong about most of your alts too. Nothing personal, it's just how this works.
Elijah Perry
I only hold link. So I don’t give a shit. I’m my mind it’s all already gone
Austin Watson
No, they didn't. People just saw numbers going up. lets recall people threw big money at obvious shit like BITCONNEEEEEECT and TRX. A lot of people did not even stop to consider if there was wheat in the chaff at all.
I did my research and only invested in alts that actually do something and are run by people with relevant real world experience in delivering products. if I have to wait until 2020+ to truly moon so be it. I am patient and wealthy enough the few thousand I threw into this (and am amazingly still in the black on) can stay tied up for years for all I care.
High risk high reward, I get that.
Kayden Hughes
I was die-hard devoted to my alts, I really took the 'marry your coin' meme to the limit. I also unfortunately picked a lot of coins that had significantly runs during the bear, like EOS and ONT. I say unfortunately because I held through the top of those runs and lost most of what I'd made. It would have been easier to just have held fucking PRL and BNTY and maybe I would have come these realizations in, like, March instead of being strung along until now with all these half-assed pumps, deluding myself with each one that the whole alt market was poised for recovery.
Brody Lee
>I did my research and only invested in alts that actually do something and are run by people with relevant real world experience in delivering products.
You just described the discovery process of every fucking bagholder on this forum. Yeah there were some retarded normies in december who bought TRX and TRTL on nothing but a whim. But most of us were looking for the gems, and we all thought we'd found them. And now we'll all down 95% with no floor in sight. I know you think you're the smartest guy in the room user, but statistically you probably just aren't (and no, neither am I) and you should take a moment to consider what that would mean if it were true so far as the long-term fate of your bags is concerned.
Henry Thompson
cuz its fucking sick bra, it powers dapps and PoS and shit
Cameron Kelly
Honestly OP is spot on. I can think of maybe one time alts didnt cycle like OP has described. Consolidate largely into BTC and once its risen a good bit maybe move some into ETH and other top 5 coins but not alot.
Samuel Baker
No one cares about FOMO friend. All of those functions can be preformed at literal fractions of the current price.
that image is wrong because it starts in September. First half of 2017 was eth's bull run.
Adrian Russell
someone who gets it, way too much market uncertainty to even consider alts
Zachary Green
Req is exempt
Juan Howard
It has been quite convincingly established that Tether was used to pump BTC to 2017 heights. As Tether and Bitfinex are under investigation now, those pumps have stopped and the market will keep deflating for a good while, in my opinion. Both companies will very likely be charged in the not-so-distant future, probably this year. With Tether assets frozen, the crypto night will be upon us. Most coins will die, either due to people realizing they're all shit, or due to the wave of ICO-related class-action lawsuits coming. I think a BTC ETF green light is likely in 2019 and will lead to new heights, but the market will look quite different.
Noah Fisher
Bullsht. ETF September approval, CBOE never ever refused an ETF in history. Most altcoins will survive, this mantra that 99% will die is just Bitcoin maximalist propoganda and whales buying cheap alts.
Jackson Nelson
Tether/Bitfinex will not be prosecuted because it is run by a pedo and government officials will not prosecute one of their ilk.
Brody Campbell
I'm not saying the Cboe ETF will be denied, the SEC just will take all the time it can before giving the green light. That will very likely only happen in March next year. Also, I'm not a Bitcoin maximalist. I'm an idiot with 0 BTC and big bags of illiquid shitcoins that I hope will survive. Still am convinced 95% of all recent altcoins will end up at the Yobit cemetary.
Dylan Butler
Whats the overhead and operating cost for a shitcoin? Why would it die? As long as it exists it can only go to 1 sat. It wont die at 1 sat unless the team abandons it. Why would a team leave the project unless it was just a money grab to start? Are you suggesting 95% of alts are a scam?
Carson Wood
this
Jaxon Jenkins
OP is right. I just sold everything at a 50% loss. Still being about 500% up on my initial, I'd say that's a solid deal regardless. Not worth the risk.
Jaxon Rogers
>No, I am a gambler like any investor >I justify my stupid decisions by saying I'm gambling anyway
You have the mind of a child.
Lucas Nelson
Exchange delisting, no liquidity to sell. Any number of reasons
Evan Wilson
When BTC starts to bullrun after it hits its bottom, atlcoins will follow through with BTC. Not BTC runs hard, altcoins lose sats then after BTC cools down altcoins run. Altcoins will rise in sats with BTC rise in USD on the next bullrun. You'll see it happen until BTC reaches $9000 then altcoins will start to do the opposite.
