>Investors hoping for signs of a resolution to Turkey’s market rout and tensions with the U.S. got little to be optimistic about in speeches Sunday by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
>In three public addresses, Erdogan lashed out at the United States, threatening to find new alliances and new markets. He also took higher interest rates off the table and said Turkey wouldn’t accept an international bailout. His message was essentially the opposite of what investors have called for to stem the plunge in the markets.
As we all know, lira's months-long collapse came to a head on Friday when USD/lira briefly touched 6.8, sparking intense fears over Turkey's future among emerging markets. Goldman Sachs analysts have forecast that Turkish banks cannot remain solvent if USD/lira rises above 7.1, which could finally be the spark that lights the next global financial meltdown.
Forex markets open 5pm EST, two hours from this post. Anyone else preparing for the fallout? Myself, I'm going to crack open a bottle of Chardonnay and watch the carnage play out in real time.
Turkey is fucked as long as Erdogan is president i think. And that's going to last a while
Lucas Brown
>which could finally be the spark that lights the next global financial meltdown. why? why is turkey so important?
Jose Wilson
>Erdogan’s remarks came just hours before markets reopen after a plunge in the lira on Friday sent tremors through global markets. At one point, the currency fell as much as 17 percent against the dollar, fanning fears that the financial tumult could spread to Europe and other emerging markets near and far.
More information on Bloomberg, FT, Zerohedge and related. Anyone have plans on taking advantage of this crisis? Myself, I am doubling contributions to my EM fund and considering Turkish bonds.
Jackson Sanchez
also, is anyone shorting the lira? ive never traded forex before but it seems like an easy play. are there any forex sites that let you trade with leverage with crypto?
Anthony Taylor
you can long usd/lira on 1broker with bitcoin
Bentley Turner
Foreign money - many banks have lots of $$$ there (Unicredit stopped trading on Friday due to the currency plunge), also significant investment from China due to their Belt & Road Initiative. More importantly it threatens to tear apart the entire Eurozone and maybe even NATO. I don't like to be a doomsayer but if that happens I could see Russia, China, Turkey and Iran forming a new economic/military coalition and finally start flexing on the rest of the world.
Isaiah Long
>global financial meltdown won't happen bond markets and fiats will but collapse? like stocks? nah.
Chase Martinez
>Minimum: 500BTC what?
Juan Sanders
I don't think Turkish banks weigh enough to start the whole financial apocalypse but it's coming sooner rather than later for sure. I already pulled all my savings from the bank and bought physical gold. Retards invest in crypto, reasonable and intelligent people get physical gold.
Tyler Long
Turkey is on the way to total meltdown. Came back from there and I can tell you that some shit is brewing. Felt like communist era. Everybody rats their foes to the police/security and people get arrested like picking apples. They get more desperate to steal from tourists, lots of police and security on the main areas, raids in cities, nepotism, corruption, you fucking name it. It is like in Babylon when it crumbled. Spoopy as shit. So my bet is they'll collapse this year. Not really sure if it will cause world collapse though. Argentina didn't cause any world collapse when they defaulted. Greece also, was just a victim of big boys fucking arrownd.
Joseph Lopez
Long usd.
Christian King
-0.05% wew lad, you'll be rich when you're dead.
Aaron Robinson
why? you mean long it against the lira? its the same thing isnt it?
Nathan Brooks
Gold rates plunge at the start of financial crisis as actors sell desperately to pay off their debts. Then gold prices surge to crazy levels because it's a refuge value. Go mortgage your house for some shitcoins before spewing uneducated bs.
On strict investment terms you are right. But what if some countries already planned for using crypto to replace fiat?
Ian Sanchez
Relax man
Jayden Parker
Against Lira ofc. And use 5-10% leverage if you have balls. Should work though.
Jose Torres
I doubt they'll allow btc/altcoins to be converted into official state cryptocurrency and there is no reason for gold to suddenly become cheap.
Jayden Williams
Failed at genocide against women & kids. filthy roaches need to be eradicated.
Tyler Allen
Turkey controls the flow of refugees to Europe. They are the gatekeepers for the majority of middle eastern refugees. If they collapse, or don't get a bailout from Europe, they will release the horde onto Europe 10X what is currently being done.
This is not the same situation as Greece or Argentina. This is a migrant issue as well as an economic issue, that could have contagion effects for European banks.
Just sit back, relax and pour yourself a drink. Put on a movie or some vidya. Then in six months China nukes Okinawa and we're all toast.
Levi Brooks
Yeah ok but until then I want to buy a lambo K?
Gavin Cruz
so my question is, what causes such volatility in forex markets? turkey didnt suffer any type of major credit downgrade that caused this did they? Is it not likely that erdogan is correct and institutional money is being moved to put pressure on the currency for smashing kurds and cuddling up to russia/iran? why do price movements happen in forex markets as opposed to normal equities
Connor Price
I pray ofc. But rn I don't see migrants in Turkey such a big issue. A huge humanitarian crisis will mean a whole new level of collapse for Turkey, not just the banckruptcy level. Just wish for the EU to come with some solution in case some big EU banks encounter hardships b/c of Turkey collapse. Turkey got alot of money when they were on a roadmap towards EU integration. Which won't ever happen, we know now. I think this shitshow now is just an exitscam. They crush the Lira, go bankrupt, come up with dinars or shit and won't pay shit back b/c they went bankrupt.
Luke Carter
When the euro/us markets hit 7 lira/usd tomorrow how big will the shitstorm be in turkey?
Benjamin Watson
That's a really good question and I wish I had a better answer. Erdogan is not totally wrong in the sense that policy changes in US & Eurozone have been a significant contributing factor, but his stubbornness and ideology-driven approach to central bank policy have done Turkey absolutely no favors. The Fed & euro central banks are more concerned with the integrity of their own systems rather than political maneuvering around other countries (though when it happens it's a nice bonus if you come out on top). Basically it's like Erdogan is a goalie and he's decided to block shots on the net with his face. Why not just use your hands, dumbass?
Cameron Martin
Allah is with them, so I guess they will say a prayer, eat a kebab, declare the Lira a weapon of the jews, then at about 14,00 hours they will declare bankruptcy and default all debt ofc. Then at about 15,00 hours declare the Turkish Dinar the new coin, swap it for 10 TL each and by dinner Turkey is once again a prosperous debt free nation.
Isaac Myers
>New stuff scares me because I don't understand it, so I put my money in shiny rocks.
James Morgan
>Turkish banks cannot remain solvent if USD/lira rises above 7.1 wtf happens now then...
Already shorted the hell out of EUR/USD pairs and watching out for AUD/USD, NZD/USD and a whole host of other currencies. Already made decent gains when I shorted the Euro last friday. Got myself a 10% profit on the downward movement.
Liam Sullivan
Oanda is the best broker for forex if you want to trade currencies.
Jaxon Phillips
>it threatens to tear apart the entire Eurozone Nah. The EU never wanted turkey, ever.
Chase Johnson
The Lira spreads on forex were wide before this panic and have gotten wider...most retail traders are just watching it but trading other pairs like many euro pairs with the euro most exposed to the Lira
Xavier Peterson
How bad is it going to be?
Joshua Johnson
Italian and Greek banks are heavily exposed to Turkey
Thomas Stewart
The "i" is silent
Ethan White
The thing is that the EU is basically the Franco German empire and despite recent events if push comes to shove they will send a million Africans to the bottom of the ocean in the middle of the night is they have to. Don't ever assume that German or French leadership feels a genuine deep humanitarianism for anyone but themselves, The only thing their navies are worried about in the med is any survivors living to tell the tale. Turkey can do what it likes they will just bring out trawler nets to collect the bodies so they don't spoil the beaches in southern France and Spain.
Jose Moore
post source now faggot. Biggest exposure is BBVA and its peanuts.
Ryder Young
I can't find the chart but Spanish banks are stupidly invested in Turkey.
Benjamin Richardson
>>Turkish banks cannot remain solvent if USD/lira rises above 7.1wtf happens now then...
IMF
Logan Nelson
>turkey >imf Not likely, more likely some russian/chinese bailout
>Italian and Greek banks are heavily exposed to Turkey And the ECB will bail them out. Again. Its nothing to the EU and Italy to do so (Italy has large gold reserves BTW) in any sense except a mild relief to Greece if Turkey goes down the shitter. Its an excuse for another Greek bailout possibly but still no sweat for the EU.
John Parker
If that happened shit would hit the fan massively . They're in NATO.
Thomas Bell
Their nato membership is already tenuous since america is sanctioning them and not allowing them to get f-35s
Alexander Lopez
>not allowing them to get f-35s We shouldn't be giving ANYONE F-35s.
Austin Perry
pgeon? what?
Jason Clark
Keep in mind there are nukes there. Also, that it's important against russia.
Parker Jenkins
It's 2 syllables not 1. Sharp G.
Jaxson Ross
As I said, BBVA with an odd 100bn. Total exposure is probably 200bn all in all. Probably 5 banks in total that have been killing it there. Nothing the ECB can't handle.
Jason Thomas
Turkey have also vowed to keep trading with iran despite sanctions, their eastern pivot is as blatant as can be
Cameron Jones
I wonder if GBP will be affected.
Lincoln Miller
Will Erdogan be hang?
Ethan Ramirez
this guy fucking gets it like no other
Landon Wilson
>Not likely, more likely some russian/chinese bailout
Turnkey is in the IMF. Russia has not got a pot to piss in and is not mush bigger (Germanys economy alone is twice the size of Russia, the EU 11 times the size of Russia) Russias shrinking economy is on 55% greater than Turkeys and they are already cancelling weapons programs and severe pay cuts. China is too far gone in debt. Turkey is in the IMF and will go there with a begging bowl when banks start collapsing or alternately Turkey will start a war with Egypt or Israel.
David Robinson
If turkey gets really fucked it would hurt the EU a lot so it could have mixed effects on GBP
Samuel Williams
can someone give me the quick rundown on why this is happening? is it because of Erdogan? been somewhat following since the military coup back in 2016 but don't know whats going on this year
Jayden Gray
>Keep in mind there are nukes there Not really important these days. The Americans could nuke Russia from eastern Europe. The Russians invited them to by placing missile forces there themselves
Liam Garcia
Erdogan quote:
"'if they have their dollar, we have the people, we have Allah'"
Holy shit, hes about to allahu snackbar the entire region
Ryan Diaz
Various things. Ultimately it boils down to "Erdogan is mental".
Brayden Baker
>Will Erdogan be hang? He did a pogrom so he's safe for now but will double down on political policing. He may do a way.
Caleb Cruz
I've been long USD/TRY since 5.6
Levi Brooks
he'll play the war card, Egypt or Israel tho....
Angel Butler
Nah. He's completely bedding in as dictator. It'd be very hard to get rid of him now.
Jacob Hernandez
Surely Egypt. As crazy as he may be, he's not "attack Israel" crazy.
Henry Barnes
>"Erdogan is mental". not really from the arab/ottoman perspective he's the 'hard man' leader, that shit always floats with muslims
Alexander Green
No it won't be. Crash their economy and the opposition will gain ground, the opposition already have like 38%. Just a matter of time before we see Erdogan being dragged behind a car, IF he doesn't give in to the demands.
Xavier Powell
>Surely Egypt. As crazy as he may be, he's not "attack Israel" crazy. well he needs a war.
Ayden Sanders
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HEEELLLPPPPPP
I DIDN'T FUCKING BUY AT 4.5 AND NOW ITS 8 ASAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
IM GONNA DIEEEEEEEE
Joshua Thompson
Nah. I remember seeking young turks celebrating his election by causing chaos in france speeding in cars in town centres he literally owns what goes out in Turkish media. He'll pull the nationalist card and he needs a war
Andrew Foster
Maybe a minor incident with Greece, sink some small greek navy vessel, or some stick waving at Israel ? His best bet for an actual war is probably Egypt or to annex a chunk of Syria in entirety
Easton Smith
Yeah exactly, he needs war to survive. But who is he going to fight? There's literally nobody around except Assad in Syria, but if he does that then RIP relations with Russia.
Kevin Baker
Why doesn't the US government just short the lira, dump it and buy tons of lira with the profit after it dumps while in a long position? National Ministry of Bart.
Noah Rogers
Having considered all options, Greece. A standoff with the greeks over some fucking island with a few shots exchanged or some limited action
Camden Lee
Okay. So I should long usd/try with 10x leverage when the market opens?
Isaiah Collins
SDF in Syria?
Aaron Myers
>Turkey will start a war with Egypt or Israel.
>start a war with Israel
fuggggg muh dickkkkkkkkkk
Aaron Nelson
Yeah geece. He's going to have a pop at Greece
"ISTANBUL (Reuters) - A Turkish court has ruled to keep in custody two Greek soldiers who were detained in Turkey in March, the Hurriyet newspaper reported on Tuesday, in a case which has escalated tensions between the two neighboring NATO allies.
>get investment money from US like all developing nations >instead of spending it on tourism, industry, agriculture etc. decide to spend all on buildings and roads >make lots and lots of apartment complexes that nobody buys >make lots of roads and bridges that nobody uses >villagers sell their fields to buy more shares in the concrete jungle >agriculture collapses >start exporting even fucking wheat >literally nobody producing anything >eventually run out of money >get fucked
I should have seen it coming. I should have fucking sold my 45k worth of crypto back in januray and tether up. Now I only have fucking 11k LINK, 27k REQ and 23k fucking Lira
literally worthless trash. If LINK doesn't become $100 I'm going to kill myself. Sergey is my only hope.
also fuck req fucking french scammers
I honestly can't sleep, I've lost so much fucking money
So....nothing too big but take some fucking uninhabited Island and let the Turkish media shout WAR so the opposition have to shut up or be labelled traitors. Greece. Hurts the EU, pleases the Russians popular with his supporters
Joseph Stewart
Oh and you literally can't buy USD/EUR/gold etc. from the banks right now, it's closed
Do you guys think I should just go out and buy physical gold with my 23k Lira? or go all in on crypto?
