Link price forecasts have been getting stupider which I didn't think was even possible. To sort things out, here is an updated version of my price prediction chart. Here's how it works:
1. What rank do you think Chainlink will be? 2. What will total Mcap be? 3. Look at the price of link
Last time round people kept falling over themselves explaining how 'mcap doesn't work like that'. I appreciate them taking time out of their busy schedules launching satellites into orbit and doing brain surgery to tell us this, but: yes, fucking obviously mcap doesn't work like that. The main assumption that we make (mcap distribution stays the same) is also *guaranteed* to be wrong, this is just a simple, back-of-the-napkin estimate of what prices would be under different scenarios.
Do whatever you want with this information, but people found the last one helpful so here you go.
They told us the gif would get worse the closer we got to september\mainet but this stuff is just plain garbage you gotta be a moron not to be all in after Ke k have is the 7777777 prophecy and the prophet assblaster spaketh
Nicholas White
$10 is 100% guaranteed, $50 is 80% guaranteed, $100 is 60% guaranteed. Higher than that is looking too far into the future. But $10 is still almost 40x so you'd be crazy not to have money in it.
Easton Hernandez
I'll kill myself if it doesn't hit $1000 and Jow Forums promised me it would
Christopher Turner
Id like to see the calculations you used to arrive at these conclusions.
Christian Peterson
>10$ is 100% guaranteed
This is the kind of meaningless statement that just needs to stop. At current total mcap, that would mean link becomes the #6 coin.
BTC, ETH, RIPPLE, BCH, EOS, LINK
Above ada, xlm, ltc, and other projects which have been huge for years. You really think that's guranteed? Or, if the total mcap will increase, you really think that it's going to do a huge increase soon, when we're still bleeding out from the last hyperbull, and valuations are way beyond any actual use for the coins?
Use your fucking head. 10$ is nowhere near guaranteed.
Jayden Morris
Fixating on market cap and market rank is absolutely asinine in any case. Forget about CMC for a second and ask whether moving data on and and off chains trustlessly could be valued at $10 billion (at full emission) when factoring in the significant percentage of non-liquid tokens. The answer is not just "yes", it's "it is absolutely guaranteed if the project succeeds on the scale that it aspires to". Who gives a fuck what the market is doing currently? Ask yourself about the actual work performed by the Chainlink network, the incentives for token price increases, and the liquidity of the token supply and $10 is the absolute floor.
Ayden Reyes
Pure delusion.
Brayden Robinson
Ada has been around for less than a year brainletio
Chart assumes same circ supply. If the project suceeds, it should be less. Link is a shitcoin if smart contracts are not insured by some colateral
Ryan Rivera
Why would i use my link as "collateral" im not going to risk that
Anthony Richardson
Non speculative price drivers for the Chainlink token: -Institutional network users who are incentivised to participate in the network by being given tokens, and who find the work performed by the network to be valuable, are incentivised to increase token price so that the tokens they got for free can perform more work. -Node operators are incentivised toward a higher token price so that they can stake fewer tokens per contract and therefore run more contracts for the same number of tokens -Node operators are incentivised to have a high value quantity of Chainlink tokens so that they can take higher value contracts that require larger penalty stakes. Network wide demand for "more value" in tokens, allowing more valuable staking, drives token price due to the static supply -The Chainlink company is incentivised to have a high token price so that it can do more work and achieve more growth using a smaller quantity of its own supply. -Literally every participant in the Chainlink network has a direct incentive to increase token price as it allows them to do more with less. End users/clients of the network are not affected by this because they will pay for the product in fiat, and it is immaterial whether their $10 payment is converted to 10 LINK or 0.1 LINK on the back end.
If you don't think moving data on and off chains, and triggering smart contracts trustlessly, is worth $10 billion, even ignoring the large non-liquid supply, extra incentives for price growth AND completely ignoring the layer of speculation that will drive price on top of everything else, then honestly what the fuck are you even doing in crypto.
Dominic Jenkins
>waste this much time to construct fud hi discord why don't you go fud reddit instead?
Samuel Scott
Yep, but also the circulating supply will probably almost triple as the remaining 650 million coins are released. I should have made a note this assumes # coins will remain the same, another guaranteed-wrong assumption but again these are just rough estimates.
Thomas Garcia
1. I wouldn't be caught dead in one of those faggy groups or on reddit 2. This actually isn't fud. I'm saying that people's price estimates are ridiculous, not that link is a bad project. I wouldn't bother with this shit except that new anons don't know these price predictions are memes and I'd rather have discussions at least somewhat grounded in reality.
William Long
More delusion...
Jack Moore
>tfw you want a bedtime story so you make a fud-like chart to trick user into telling you one
god that list of incentives is insane...
Agree with your point that fixating on mcap is besides the point, but I think it's important as a 'reality check' on different scenarios. It's easy to calculate link price based on % of derivatives industry and get insane numbers. There's that saying 'nobody knows more than the market', which in this case is kinda like... the mcap of coins reflects that overall integrated view of the entire market on what these things are worth, and there's a lot of hidden info on risk, etc, baked into that, so its a useful things to consider.
Let me ask you this: when are you gonna sell? What % of your stack at different prices, or scenarios (blow off top, etc.)
Leo Davis
it's 2500 now.
Julian Perry
how are pajeets/linkies so delusional
Xavier Murphy
A trillion is 1000 billions you retard. If the current market cap was really 0.195 trillion, link would be #1 and way WAY over bitcoin
I've been holding 150k since ED and my plan is to use at least 100k of that in staking (maybe running nodes, maybe using linkpool, maybe using a linkpool competitor once there is actually a competitive marketplace of staking pools). If all goes to plan that 100,000 will generate enough income that I won't ever actually have to sell down below that figure. This isn't a "how much do I need Chainlink to be worth for me to sell and forget about it" question for me. I think Chainlink is such a fundamental part of smart contract infrastructure that the revenue generated by my holdings will be enough to sustain me without having to sell my main stack.
Landon Flores
total crypto market cap user so instant to dismiss a reality check as fud that you dont even bother using your fucking brain. top kek, retarded pajeet trash.
Levi Perez
How the fuck can you make something like this and not calculate the staking effect with it.
Gavin James
Fair enough. I know my limitations and don't have the time/energy/skills to get involved with staking without fucking it up. Also I figure if staking actually generates profit, unstaked coins should appreciate at a similar rate?
Admire your conviction though. I'll be selling off parts of my stack whenever link is over 50% of my total portfolio. That way i'll lock in some profits early, and be able to let a lot of it ride.
David Torres
>A trillion is 1000 billions you retard. In the British system one billion is 1,000,000,000,000 and one trillion is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 so one trillion is one million times one billion.
Mutts BTFO
Henry Perez
not you, node operators if they want to compete for the best jobs
Alexander Mitchell
This thread is fud 3000 EOY
Brody Kelly
"Market cap" is an entirely fictitious metric.
>print 1 million tokens >manage to sell A SINGLE TOKEN to some guy for $1 >*braap* your token now has a $1 million market cap
Still, it's pretty cute that you put so much effort into a nice colorful chart like that.
Angel Young
>LINK = Top 3 coin >Crypto mcap = mcap of gold >LINK = Literally $1000 Uh, thanks for the support I guess?
I'm sure conmarketcap will register your shitty attempt at manipulation.
Dylan Jones
>m-muh appeal to authority pfffhahaha cope harder, faggot. Market cap is a completely fictitious metric, deal with it.
Ethan Bell
>top 25 >not even a dollar .........................................................
Nathaniel Anderson
>being this retarded The point is your retarded manipulation would not influence the metric in any meaningful way. Don't make me spoonfeed you more child, because dinner time is over. Nappy time.
Jason Gutierrez
You're babbling.
>mint 1 million tokens >sell 1 token for 1 USD >market cap is 1 million USD
What kind of illiquid shithole of a non-market are you talking about idiot. The 'manipulation' you want to do doesn't imply that the metric is stupid. It just shows that you are a drooling retard which will be corrected within fractions of a second.
Luke Butler
Do you have brain damage?
Leo Watson
Market cap = item price * number of items.
Not sure what you seem to be struggling with so much.
