BTC to $100,000 - Rate my TA

Good point here. Can someone experienced explain how can technical analysis help someone predict the future trend of the graph? At least fundamental analysis is based on future projections, historical prices are useless imho where a huge change approaches..

Read the chart have you ever read any basic TA? Read up on Don Kruger’s theory.

He fell for the "TA is bullshit meme lines" meme

TA is only the analysis of human behavior and human behavior is predictable on past data, it's also a self fullfilling prophecy, because more people believe in TA the more it becomes real.

Sooo, there’s no evidence that TA works? No research showing that the techniques are repeatable and accurate?

So it’s bs.

I would argue that human behavior cannot be predicted with the tiny amount of data found in a chart of btc price over 2 years

Your image and TA are both as retarded as you are.

Attached: non brainlet TA.jpg (1764x846, 93K)

>It’s aboslutelt mind shattering
not really, and still didn't explain what the fuck does dunning-kruger got to do with that pic.

TA is all that matters in bitcoin. It's not that TA is wrong, it's that most people are fucking shit at it.

Furthermore, any successful predictions on very basic human behaviors utilize absurd amounts of data. Look at any successful ML projects to do with human behavior.

ye TA is 2 years old hehe, are you retarded?

Smh... still no evidence that TA is anymore useful than alchemy. TA is vastly unsuccessful and unrepeatable. If TA turns a profit, it’s nothing more than luck.

Alright folks, if you haven’t figured it out I’m larping (this guy did ).

Was fun while it lasted, surprised no one called me out sooner. Everything I said was 100% BS.

Attached: 7E282D48-1D6B-48CE-9078-65F276E6B340.gif (240x320, 448K)

TA has been around since the first stock market, and probably before then. It’s been around for much longer than 2 years.

Do you realize TA exist for many years ? not only since bitcoin? or do you think bitcoin is the first tradeable market and TA was invented with bitcoin?

See my last post. Think you’ve confused anons here.

Ohh I see what you mean. My bad, i stated that poorly. What I’m trying to say there is that there’s not enough data in OP’s chart to make future predictions of human behavior.

Imagine being this fucking stupid

I don't know what you think "TA" is, but all you need to do is pull up a chart of bitcoin and throw some basic moving averages and it's pretty clear that they act as support and resistance. How hard it is to understand that it's self-fufilling in the sense that a number of market participants are looking at the same lines, and using those to influence their actions, which in turn validates the lines as support and resistance.

I mean shit, I've only tripled my bitmex balance since March using nothing but TA as the basis for my trades but shit what would I know, I've only been following these markets daily for 4+ years so clearly this random user on the internet has convinced me to stop relying on "alchemy"

If you don't see clear lines of support and resistance on this chart you're beyond hope.

Attached: support and resistance on weekly.jpg (1600x885, 85K)

Bitcoin is actually the easiest asset to use TA over. of course not for small price action since its heavily manipulated.

If you've been following the market for 4+ years, then you're brain has collected way more information than a single chart with two variables.

Let me repeat myself for the 5th time. There's is no evidence that TA techniques are repeatable and accurate. If you could find some solid research that goes against what I'm saying, then I would be open minded to it. But, that research doesn't exist. Because TA is alchemy.

you're trolling for sure

hello friend is there a cheat code on when to buy and sell please help I'm a brainlet

let me show you why ta can't work:
if ta actually worked reliably -> everybody would use it
if everybody used it -> everybody would make money
but that's impossible the only party that makes money on every trade is the exchange. among traders it's a less than zero sum game.
so in conclusion ta can't work.

it's always manipulation when you fags guess wrong isn't it? how cute...

I'm not trolling. TA is trolling! Companies that do chart analysis on the stock market are far more likely to UNDER perform a total stock market index fund.

So glad I'm not the only one that thinks TA is silliness on this board.

Had you identified the 20 week moving average as support (which it acted as for 2 full years), you could have repeatedly bought every dip throughout all of 2017 and been successful.

If you think there's magical TA techniques that work every single time without fail then you're just retarded, but it doesn't take a genius to identify trends and patterns, and as a market participant you just have to trust in those trends and patterns to hold until they don't. I don't see how this is so difficult for you to grasp. I stand by the comment that people who bash TA are brainlets of the highest order.

Yeah, pay attention to bitfinex long/short margin data and when the positioning is more than 10k net short/long, do the opposite.

Good thing not everyone will use it because only like 10-20% of market participants are smart and the other 80% are abject retards, like the people bashing TA in this thread.

>What is this TA?
Crouching Tiger hidden Snek

pic related, absolute no repeatability here

Attached: nothing repeating here chief.jpg (1608x888, 92K)

>Good thing not everyone will use it
if it worked people would use it there would be simple apps for it. have you tried ta predictors for btc? there are sites for it they consistently give you bad advice. because ta fucking sucks.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. There are so many things about actually trading with real money that make it too hard for normies to handle. Why do people seem to have this misconception that TA is supposed to be some magic cheat code for the markets? It's nothing more than another tool in your belt to help you gain an edge, but to argue it's useless is fucking stupid.

I've spoken to many professional money managers and the vast majority at least use some form of TA to help with market timing. Fundamental analysis tells you whether you want to buy a stock/security, and technical analysis tells you when. It's really not a fucking difficult concept to grasp

Also, stop looking at shitty fucking TA and using it as the basis for saying TA as a practition is useless

take this for example
investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/btc-usd-technical
even tho btc will take a beating in the coming weeks it says strong buy

Because people watch the charts when trading, so they are influenced by the past.
That's pretty basic btw.

all ta is shitty as fuck i have seen many predictions none of them followed up consistently.

No shit, this is some garbage fucking third-rate automatically-generated bullshit. You need to use at least a fraction of your brain if you want to be successful. Am I being fucking trolled here? You're looking at some investing.com garbage and using it as the basis to say TA as an entire study is useless?

>what little TA i've seen from retards on a chinese finger painting board means all TA is shitty

jesus christ the absolute state of TA-bashers

tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/technicals/
interestingly this say strong sell kek from the same """indicators""".

above, a case for TA showing you a 2-year strong support line that held every single time it was tested

attached, a case for TA showing you that same support, once broken and invalidated, became resistance

holy shit its alchemy

Attached: more totally non-predictable events.jpg (1606x891, 94K)

Hmm... Ok.. Based on strictly the historical numbers, what do you predict will happen in the future, oh wise one?

Given that the last time bitcoin crashed in 2014, it fell all the way to the 200 WEEK moving average and languished there for a full year, my prediction is (and has been for some time) that that is how things will play out again, and we will end up revisiting the 200 week moving average which currently stands at around 2700 now and will likely be around 3k when we get there. It might take until the end of this year or into '19, but I'm fairly sure it's gonna happen.

Not that you'll even remember me saying this when it does.

Attached: more alchemy.jpg (1602x893, 74K)

And you base this cycle on? The fact that it happened one time before?

so bitrock go up or down? grug need to know, grug lost many rock in great rockpocalypse.

Attached: oogaboogaaa.jpg (800x450, 38K)

Correct. It's an uncertain market with pretty much nothing in the way of fundamentals. People will look to the past for guidance and see that this is where the bleeding finally stopped last time, and smarter money will begin to allocate decent sized capital around there. Their buying effects will reinforce the idea of the line being support, and the cycle will begin again.

rofl okay then see you next year make a trip so that i can laugh at you!

Whatever you say man, I just want you to remember that I said this so that when it happens you can come back here and apologize for being so fucking stupid, okay?

Just to reiterate : the bottom will be ~3k. Maybe lower on a one-candle capitulation but the support will come in at 3k. Until then have fun feeling smug you abject retard

By smarter money, you mean predictable money.

Nevertheless, your predictions are as arbitrary as they are bold.

>when it happens
so never then okay deal

99,500 EOY

By smarter money, I mean people with sizeable amounts of capital that are smart enough to wait until clear signs of a bottom before throwing money at this current dumpster fire.

Believe what you want, in the end the market will be the final arbiter of who is right. But I'm fully prepared to put my money where my mouth is, are you?

You sound pretty confident for someone who I'm almost certain has been in crypto less than 1 full year and knows absolutely nothing. I know there's not much space in that head of yours for new information but just try and remember what I've discussed here, okay? I've already screenshotted your posts for posterity to laugh at in 6-12 months from now.

Ta completely works. But its like saying science and maths works and then thinking your a fucking genius cause u can count.

Ta isnt the problem. Shit amateur ta which is 95% of crypto TA is the problem.

With respect, it's a bit that everything you think you're able to understand about why it's useful is not actually why. Price is basically random all the time and you're hoping you've found an edge in the market that allows you to identify moments slightly less random than usual. I'm not talking about OP's pic, just TA in general. There are black swans but they'll fuck you if you allow it, a trader will suffer drawdowns, if things change, he can say OK I'm going to adapt after my account has lost this much because what I thought I knew is not true. It's guessing and you have people who are paid to give opinions about price and people who trade. You're opiniongivers right now and for TA you have to choose what is what and have it clear. The Turtles were a famopus group, and they tried to give a strategy to 10 people and maybe 2 got it.

Arthur:.
> My first boss taught me that everything was my fault as the trader. Obviously there are many things outside of your control, but if you approach your profession with that mentality you attempt to quantify and mitigate all of the risks within your control.

youtube.com/watch?v=wHCUOHwixmU
> Negative correlation between intellect and money

Try to watch 3 minutes of this, maybe 15, maybe the whole thing
youtube.com/watch?v=NDkE6RHke9U

Basically, stop asking if things work just do serious research on your own because there are no breadcrumbs towards the right path. Be responsible and don't make excuses, it's not something you need to do, but it's as mysterious as saying boats don't work because tsunamis happen. And I don't care about making the metaphor better, just pick a boat. Asking, watching, theorizing is easy, doing is hard.

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do you visit ccn or read financial review? how do you think all these projects will fare during btc crashing to 3k? what about the overlap between alt market makers/investments in whatever project and their desire to trade btc?

Gotchya right here. Let me make sure I understand correctly:

BTC will have a value of $3,000.00 at the end of 2019?

Could I have some error bounds on those numbers? Are we talking $3,000 +- $100? and 2019 +- 1 month?

Attached: 4chan TA prediction.png (2496x216, 53K)

ahahahahah you already made me laugh. good. we will see.
this is more likely than $3k ever again. not that i would be crying if it drops to $5k i buy if it drops to $4k i buy if it drops to $3k i buy. if it goes sideways i buy if it goes up i buy. it will be $100k soon enough. so idgf.

I can't give you specifics on timing, although my gut and intuition tells me we reach bottom late '18 early '19. If you're going to be a faggot and not only hold me to a price call but a date call give me january 2019 +/- 3 months or so.

Then again I'll get the price call right but it'll probably happen outside those bands and you'll still find a way to feel smug while I throw 30-50 grand at bitcoin at the bottom and make 20x by 2022.

I can't tell you what THE bottom is going to be because the final capitulation is always some crazy shit no one can predict. In 2014 the FINAL bottom was closer to $150 although the support was eventually found at $200, and the support will be found again at the 200 week moving average

I try not to read crypto related news and any of that garbage because I don't like letting other peoples' opinions influence my own. I'll read news occasionally to see how others are thinking but I just need the chart and a core group of guys I chat with to influence my decision making processes

Yeah, we will. I've got capital on the sidelines and nothing but patience.

>and nothing but patience
well at least you got one thing right in this thread maybe not all is lost for your stupid ass.

Seems like you're starting to spread around your prediction to cover your ass.

I thought you were very good at predicting the future price based on the historical price using mathematics. I need error bounds or your prediction is worthless.

BTC at $3,000 (+/- $100) during Jan. 2019 (+/- 3 months)? Is that right?

You're awfully bold for someone who hasn't countered with anything of substance. Prime example of Dunning-Kruger in full effect. How much did YOU make on the 2017 bull-run?

Here's some more alchemy btw.

Attached: totally unpredictable.jpg (1816x854, 114K)

>20x
what sort of rookie numbers are those? if you are willing to wait a few years 100x is entirely possible. as early as 2023-2024 btc can hit $1mil.

>I thought you were very good at predicting the future price based on the historical price using mathematics.

Point to the post in the thread where I said this. Stop putting words in my mouth. You've got my call. I get that TA raped your mother and killed your father but stop taking out your aggression on me.

>as early as 2023-2024 btc can hit $1mil.

>talks shit about TA
>pulls retarded predictions out of his ass with absolutely no basis

kek you're an interesting one, that's for sure.

fair enough. how do you envision alts behaving during this hullabaloo? all the eager project nerds and traders who are on the sidelines waiting to move or make announcements until "the market" becomes favorable again? at what point do those interests outweigh bitcoins?

>gimme error boundaries or the prediction is worthless!
>well now it just looks like you're covering your own butthole by creating boundaries!

Historically it seems alts have only gone on super bull runs after money has already been made in bitcoin. People that suddenly have a lot more wealth on paper start to spread it around and move further out on the risk curve, from alts to btc. The way I see things alts will likely continue to bleed out, with their various ups and downs but with a defined downtrend at least until BTC bottoms out and likely further continue flat until BTC starts to show signs of life again. This most recent bull run in alts was by far the largest in history so it's hard to say how much the future is going to mimic the past. I don't think any altcoin provides any real tangible value and as they don't represent actual ownership claims like equity, they're pretty much worthless aside from their speculative value. I wouldn't accumulate any major bags until BTC bottoms out as well which I believe to be happening by early 2019 or so. Until then it's nothing but pain I'm afraid.

wow... name calling huh? lemme show you how it's properly done: fuck you autistic retard! see? wasn't that hard... no need to pretend you are not a brainlet we can tell that you are.

He's a gigantic faggot, there's no reasoning with these people. Imagine seriously asking for a longer-term price call within +/- $100 kek

You're the one who starting throwing math at me and calling me ignorant because I don't see how someone can predict the future price based on the historical prices. Now that I've asked you to do so, you won't put your name on it. I'll hold you to the following:

BTC at $3,000 (+/- $100) during Jan. 2019 (+/- 3 months) [screenshot]

There's at least some non-zero probability that you're correct. But, I bet if I asked 1,000 technical analysts, I would get 1,000 different predictions.

it will happen and you might say "okay but when?? that's the point!" and i will say "it doesn't matter you retarded cuck! just hold until your goal is met!"

All you need to do is go back through the thread to see I've been far more polite and responsive to you with my actual beliefs based on what I believe to be a thoughtful process and you just mock me like the retard you are.

>You're the one who starting throwing math

Where did I do this?

>calling me ignorant because I don't see how someone can predict the future price based on the historical prices.

No, I'm calling you ignorant because you're blatantly dismissive of anything TA, instead of at least having the intellectual capacity and curiosity to perhaps look at the subject without such a dismissive attitude. I never said +/- $100, and I can't give you that kind of call because the final capitulation bottom will be too hard to call. I've already told you what I believe, if there was anything more to say I'd say it. If you want to continue being a fucking prick then go nuts, this is an anonymous board. What're you gonna do, come back in a year and laugh at an anonymous poster if it doesn't work out? (it will)

I made a quarter million in 2017. I'll ride the next leg up, and the leg after that. I'll NEVER sell all my bitcoins, so don't worry i'll be right there whenever the peak is.

>There's at least some non-zero probability that you're correct.
yeah why do you think i haven't gone all in just yet. it can go lower but pretending it's likely instead of an off chance is pure retard. he is completely misreading the mood and where we are in the cycles. but that's okay.

I'm asking you for your error bounds! I made up fake ones because you wouldn't give me anything.

Saying "It will be around 3k, around 2019" it not valuable. It's not prediction. Would you consider yourself correct if the price was at 10k in early 2020? I guess you might.

Without error bounds, your prediction is worthless! +/- $100 is very bold. What would you suggest instead? +/- $1,000? +/- $10,000?

>he actually thinks this is more or less THE bottom

oh god you're stupider than I thought. Please don't throw all your money at this thing, you'll regret it by winter.

>making a prediction isn't a prediction because it isn't specific enough for my arbitrary critera

Kill yourself. 200 week MA bottom, Jan 2019 +/- 3 months. Come back around then and apologize you absolute faggot.

>and you just mock me
i never do that to people i can take even a little seriously. just wanted you to know that.
>I made a quarter million in 2017
larping now?

>AHAH! You've fallen straight into my trap!
>You really thought you could get away with confidently asserting something you believe to be accurate?! NAMECALLER!!

I bet you wish I was LARPing you mickey mouse small-time faggot

Attached: 158k cap gain 2017.jpg (1427x172, 63K)

>Please don't throw all your money at this thing
why would i? i know how far i can go exactly i know my buy target i know my timeline i stagger my buys to insure about fall in price but i don't expect it at all. if it happens good if it doesn't okay. that's the only healthy approach i can see. you are just a retarded bear so far. we are way past capitulation unless some seriously bad news comes like a major exchange going under price will hold above $5k.

>we are way past capitulation unless some seriously bad news comes like a major exchange going under price will hold above $5k.

See, at least when I make calls, I back them up with what I believe to be sound TA. You pull shit out of your ass and have the gall to laugh at TA practitioners. This whole thread is hilarious.

i'm telling you you are misreading the market because you try to do this retarded ta shit... it's your weakness not your strength. everyone can get lucky even with the dumbest strategy.

> I'm good at TA! BTC will be $3,000 +/- something in January.
Wow, how insightful.

>200 week MA bottom
You're not even giving enough information here for it to be clear what you're talking about. Is the moving average calculated over the past 200 days? Is it centered on the 200 days? Future 200 days?

>you can't analyse trends and learn to read the market and other such things
>he is completely misreading the mood and where we are in da market cycles

>everyone can get lucky even with the dumbest strategy

Even a strategy like calling an arbitrary bottom with absolutely nothing, not even TA, to back it up? What leads you to believe this is the bottom?

TA doesn't work 100% because you cannot predict external events or breaking news. However, human psychological behavior is rather predictable IE: fear induces selling, greed induces buying. Utilizing an arsenal of TA and applying that to volume, price, etc. will give you an edge over the competition (we're all competing against each other unless we can call agree to trade in unison, which would never happen).

The problem most TA fags run into is that they never back test and refine their strategy, instead they look at the current market climate, draw some fucking lines and call it a day.

For TA to work successfully you need to ACTUALLY know how the tools interpret data. You also need to calibrate all these tools to the crypto market as they are all basically designed for stocks and forex, markets which are operational 24/7... among many other things.

Bottom line, TA does give you an edge when you actually understand the data to begin with, monitor it closely and back test every theory you come up with. Otherwise, you're just another retard with a computer screen.

weeks* not days.

$100,000 BTC EOY
$15,000 ETH EOY
$1,000 LINK EOY
check em and weep boyos

You're trolling me right now, right?

Look at the picture. That pink line, that's the 200 week simple moving average. I'm sure even you are smart enough to deduce what that means. Given that it's calculated over such a long period, it's relatively insensitive to price fluctuations and as a result will likely continue on a modest uptrend into the new year. Use your powers of observation to extrapolate where that line will likely be (roughly 3k) around January, and that's where bitcoin will settle. If you want anything more specific than that with your little error bands you'll have to subscribe to my paid telegram channel :^)

Oh, and as an aside, how much have YOU made in crypto? I mean shit, if you poo-poo on TA that made me $250k, surely your own, more fine-tuned mathematical methods have yielded you millions! Surely you're not arrogant and stupid enough to try and shit on someone far more experienced than you with nothing to back it up, right?

Attached: surely you cant be this stupid.jpg (1598x889, 73K)

blue, not pink. inb4 you use this semantics bullshit against me like the petty little faggot you are

Thank you for not calling me retarded. I totally agree that general analysis is very valuable. I think there's a lot of information to research which can provide an advantage for an investment.

I want to be clear, I'm only arguing against predicting the future price based simply on historical prices. I argue that there's simply not enough data there to accurately predict the future prices.

>acknowledging markets are cyclical in the long term and loosely repeat patterns with some variation is the same as pretending you can predict day to day price movements from historic data
...

TA isn't used to predict future specific prices, it's used to indicate potential areas of support and resistance and give you an edge when it comes to decision making. I don't see how this concept eludes you