I'm wondering what you lads make of real estate at the moment - I seem to recall some mortgage broker here a year or so ago noting some sub-prime style practices happening again - have you any population and demographic based assessments what might happen? Implications of a sovereign debt collapse, social security and public pensions' impacts on increasing imposition of property taxes, etc?
See it seems like sod's law to me any kids buying now should be stuck with a stagnating liability from these highs.
I think a housing market correction is due, but it will be short lived unless the entire economy collapses, in which case a housing market correction will be the least of societal concerns. We'd see unemployment rate sky rocket and people defaulting on their loans left and right. Banks would collapse. There would be no way to collect, lawsuits would be frivolous. Houses would be on huge discounts but nobody would be buying except ultra rich people. We'd enter a state of extreme wealth division where people who used to be middle class would now be impoverished. Either the government would then dump an enormous amount of money in to revitalize the economy and essentially give people their houses back through low interest rates and new lines of cheap credit or we'd be looking at a 10+ year recession like we've not seen since the great depression.
I think what's way more likely is the government will preemptively avoid that shitstorm, we'll see a housing slow down and in some markets a slight pullback, while salaries continue to rise and building can/will continue & people will keep buying homes. Cities will likely sprawl outwards more and upwards more. Cities like NYC which are packed to the brim will continue to boom.
Ayden Howard
I think we are good until 2022.
Benjamin Garcia
Thanks for that's a considered answer at least. Some of what you're saying here is speculation, some of it speculated additional consequences - so I'll just start with some of the assumptions:
>I think a housing market correction is due, but it will be short lived unless the entire economy collapses.
So in your mind at the moment where would such a "collapse" come from? What do you make of a possibility for emerging markets to do something you don't expect?
>Either the government would then dump an enormous amount of money in to revitalize the economy and essentially give people their houses back through low interest rates and new lines of cheap credit
Are you imagining they'd do that the same way they did last time or through some radical re-structuring of how this system operates?
> We'd see unemployment rate sky rocket and people defaulting on their loans left and right. Banks would collapse. There would be no way to collect, lawsuits would be frivolous. Houses would be on huge discounts but nobody would be buying except ultra rich people. We'd enter a state of extreme wealth division where people who used to be middle class would now be impoverished.
Because of a "collapse" instead of a slightly heavier price decline? How about a protracted period of stagnation?
>I think what's way more likely is the government will preemptively avoid that shitstorm.
How often has a government ever pre-empted a shitstorm? Aside from anything else - is there any use to a crisis which hasn't happened?
Julian Roberts
Why?
Easton Lee
Yeah, I remember that older post OP. If I remember correctly he started his own hedge fund. He was talking about how NON-QM mortgages were on the rise, and that not much has changed since 2008.
What I have noticed in my city is that property values were recently reassessed, and some people saw their taxes almost triple. Just more strain on long term residents; eventually the camels back will break.
I routinely keep hearing that 2020 will be the year for a real estate correction, and that is probably not far from reality.
Joseph Green
>and some people saw their taxes almost triple. Just more strain on long term residents
It obviously never comes from where it came from before - this is the issue. Something of an interesting theme is pensions and social security - bankrupt muncipalities having to push up taxes and people can't shift property the way they can some other sorts of assets.
So it's property taxes increasing slowly - how long they'll keep increasing I'm not sure - however it's a "windfall" you shouldn't have an issue with if you've seen your house up in price.
However high do such taxes have to start to be until they start to be seen as liabilities instead of assets as they stagnate?
Camden Davis
*how higher
See I just feel as if there is something intergenerational about this - it's only possible for something stupid to happen when people aren't really able to remember anything other than what's happened in their lives.
This is very true, and this also why people who are even slightly in the know can benefit from the next downfall.
My grandfather experienced the great depression, and also was a CPA, so I will admit that his stories turned me into somewhat of a perma-bear.
Parker Foster
What'd your grandpa have to say about his day?
Cameron Clark
>sovereign debt I don't understand why this exists when we can just conjure money nowadays. It makes no logical sense for you to be in debt or take out loans when you print the money.
>have you any population and demographic based assessments what might happen? First-world countries will be JOOSTed. Allegedly, we are pumping people in from the third world to try to cover the pension crisis. In reality, this seems to be a combination of a power grab by Progressives and an attempt to pump house prices and provide a new consumer base for critical companies (food, pharma, cars, etc.) that need a larger population. Banks are heavily invested in both. If population goes down, and real estate or major companies post bad numbers, a lot of banks could go insolvent. I think Canada is the worst example, I've read they're levered up 90x on real estate there and are pumping in pajeet/chink money and immigrants to drive the prices up, then having boomers take out home equity lines of credit or reverse mortgages to drive spending. The problem is that immigrants are a cost center so the whole thing is basically a pyramid scheme. No government is willing to do anything about boomerbux so in all likelihood we will go down in flames because of it until Democracy is done away with and someone does what must be done.
People think the old people are going to die and all kinds of houses will be put up for sale to pay either nursing bills or to be divided among their massive number of children.
Henry Murphy
its gonna crash
Caleb Powell
>Both in Japan and the USA, real estate prices in a region are inversely correlated with the old age dependency ratio in that region, and positively correlated with the total number of population in that region. The demographic factor had a greater impact on real estate prices in Japan than in the USA. For Japan, it was also found that demographic impact on land prices will be −2.4 per cent per year in 2012-2040, while it was −3.7 per cent per year in 1976-2010, suggesting that aging will continue to have downward pressure on land prices over the next 30 years, although the demographic impact will be slightly smaller than it was in 1976-2010, as the old age dependency ratio will not increase as much as it did before.
Only if you're able to keep out foreign money and increasing immigration of course. I'm not sure how much of it is attributable to "down-sizing" for now or nursing bills just yet.
Matthew Lewis
>First-world countries will be JOOSTed. Allegedly, we are pumping people in from the third world to try to cover the pension crisis. In reality, this seems to be a combination of a power grab by Progressives and an attempt to pump house prices and provide a new consumer base for critical companies (food, pharma, cars, etc.) that need a larger population. Banks are heavily invested in both. If population goes down, and real estate or major companies post bad numbers, a lot of banks could go insolvent. I think Canada is the worst example, I've read they're levered up 90x on real estate there and are pumping in pajeet/chink money and immigrants to drive the prices up, then having boomers take out home equity lines of credit or reverse mortgages to drive spending. The problem is that immigrants are a cost center so the whole thing is basically a pyramid scheme. No government is willing to do anything about boomerbux so in all likelihood we will go down in flames because of it until Democracy is done away with and someone does what must be done.
This is very well said - so is there anything concievably in your mind which might happen as a result of shifts in policy or politics which would alter that?
>I've read they're levered up 90x on real estate there.
So is there any way we can concievably undo or restructure this because this is still descending us all into a sort of landed neo-feudalism where people pay higher and higher siphons of their whole life's incomes up in tithe to whoever has hold of mortgage debt or - in some situations people who harvest others' rent to pay their own mortgages off.
Dylan Barnes
There is literally 0 risk if you have a mortgage. You just refinance if the home price drops below what you owe. If you dont' buy, expect stupid high rent from those that did. Everyone needs a place to live. The last bubble will not repeat itself.
Michael Lopez
Sorry:
>I've read they're levered up 90x on real estate there.
So is there any way we can concievably undo or restructure this because this is still descending us all into a sort of landed neo-feudalism where people pay higher and higher siphons of their whole life's incomes up in tithe to whoever has hold of mortgage debt or - in some situations people who harvest others' rent to pay their own mortgages off.
It won't be good. Euros in particular have lots of non-performing loans, I've read, Italy and Spain are notably bad. Governments want much, much higher immigration levels and the Euros are already at near-chimpout status, and third worlders will suddenly become a lot less tolerable when the economy is shit. Same in the US where you seemingly have boiling tensions at >4% growth...
Ultimately I think we need to just do a currency reset or something. No more fucking boomerbux either.
Gabriel Bennett
why do you want to undo it?
it is a wealth transfer mechanism from people who can't do math to people who can
why the fuck would you want illiterate chimps accumulating wealth instead of humans?
Asher Brooks
Ha, assuming whatever has lead to this price drop has not also affected whatever appetite there is for any sort of mortgage lending at all - especially unlikely if you're refinancing with negative equity.
Stupid intentionally or accidentally?
Aaron Cook
Literally when the chink money stops coming in, it all comes undone. Chinks are scrambling to get money out of China, why else would they buy comically overpriced properties in Canada and Australia and CA? Clearly they don't care if this happens because at least their money is not in China any more.
Jack Long
*shrugs* Because by that sort of mentality I'd stick a few bullets in the back of your head and steal your stuff anyway.
Brayden Long
>it is a wealth transfer mechanism from people who can't do math to people who can It's wealth transfer by government policy. Through immigration policy and taking chink money they're effectively just handing money to boomers and whichever banks are speculating on that market. When either the flow of chink/pajeet/arab cash or immigration stops, the whole charade ends.
Carson Miller
mortgage lending dind't stop under the last bubble so im not exactly sure your point. almost all mortgages you can also talk them down if it comes to forclosure or a lump sum payment of less, thelll take what they can get. you want to have property, especially if the whole economy tanks. if you are renting the people you are renting from are probably in a mortgage - your still kicked out on the street or end up paying stupid high rent.
David Thompson
This is why I have my eye on just renouncing citizenship and getting out before shit really hits the fan. Crypto people especially are looking to have all their property extorted or face prison when all the entitlements can't be funded as huge swathes of boomers hit retirement. No one is going to vote themselves less shit, and the various population demographics are already at each others throats when all is relatively "well."
Brody Brown
The last bubble was literally caused by W. forcing banks to Hispanics to try to get the Hispanic vote due to changing the enforcement guidelines surrounding the Community Reinvestment Act. (It worked). Okay, technically he built on new guidelines from the Clinton admin forcing lending to blacks, but whatever.
Evan Green
>near-chimpout status
Yep socioeconomically as well as culturally they're aware they're being consumed by symbio-parasitism - something I'm finding interesting is how many "border intelligence" civil servants are in the honours lists:
Usually a sign something's being fucked with, they don't honour people who aren't good gophers.
However I still think however much they'll try to sneak people past popular awareness it has to stop sooner or later under the weight of public pressure.
***
How about emerging markets? Interest rates in the US pushing up and some hard man such as Erdogan pivoting East and saying fuck the police...?
ok? i have white privilege though. i need to insure that my family wont be on the street, no matter what. i literally just bought the most expensive house i could afford, paid off 20% to get cheap rates - kept the rest in the bank/bitcoin, and now im going to arm myself like crazy. im not worried about a fucking thing.
Dominic Roberts
There's nowhere to get out TO though. Australia or New Zealand might be your best bet.
>EU Millions of Muslims and nogs who will chimp out when welfare is shut off. Remember our Progressive NGOs literally tell them they can come to Europe and NOT work because they're so desperate for new buyers and rising house prices.
>US Boiling tensions at 4% growth and comparatively cheap real estate outside the Chink Coast.
>Canada Same as Europe, probably has the worst real estate bubble.
>UK Like Canada but with more angry Pakis and Commonwealth types.
At least the chinks in Australia and New Zealand won't chimp out at you. But China might try to invade them if they perceive the US and Japan as weak.
Jonathan Morgan
Yes however you're looking at the last bubble - it's always different isn't it? Say there were a sudden change in interest rate policy as a sovereign debt crisis starts - how would that shift how people are inclined to offer mortgages?
I'm sure I'm not aware what all of the possible variables are out there however I'm sure using yesterday's crises to anticipate tomorrow's is going to come off badly for you if that's what you're doing.
Chase Jones
US will have South Africa style land grabs within 30 years. Once there is a critical mass of indios Progressives will start agitating for land grabs and BEE-style laws to try to permanently seize power. Your guns will be taken before that. I'd probably want to hold Monero and not Bitcoin...
i am looking at it like i always need a place to live for me and my family. i either buy or rent. rent has too high of a risk, and your at the mercy of the moron property owner. buy at least you have options.
yawn. ive held 21 btc since $260 times. i cashed out 5 at 18k ish, which i turned into a down payment on a 500k house. the rest im keeping put till 2020 halvening. my risk is some fake internet money, which i turned into fake fiat money, that i put into a real fucking house. the rest ill use to bury a shipping container full of guns, who knows, but im much better off than you faggots throwing rent away.
Landon Foster
I'm sure it won't be that bad however I'm interested to hear what you were offered as far as fixed interest rates and how long they'd last if you have them?
Or did you have some sort of variable rate tracker / svr / ca[?
Bentley Davis
I don't rent dude, I'll be inheriting 2 houses from my parents who didn't reverse mortgage their shit or take out home equity lines of credit. I just put my money from work into crypto.
Matthew Reed
The southern hemisphere will probably be the place to be, either in SEA or the southern reaches of South America. Australia and NZ will probably be decent targets on a longer term, but Australia especially has a huge overleveraged real estate bubble that needs to pop, and they'll probably be among the first of the "western" countries to do huge internal cannibalizations as shit falls apart. I'm not familiar with NZ but it'll probably be similar on a smaller scale, but after things calm down and economics and attitudes "reset" it'll probably be a decent spot to go. I wouldn't want to be anywhere close to the US, Russia, or China regardless though as they're the most likely to leverage force on nearby neighbors to make up for budget shortfalls or just opportunistic grabs.
Henry Howard
Australia has a real estate bubble for sure, but I think it'll be safer to be there than in the US or Europe as they don't have a belligerent population prone to violence if welfare is turned off. Instead they have chinks.
Ian Gutierrez
i have an 820 credit score and i got a 4.62% with 0 points for 30 year fixed with 20% down on a conventional loan for a ~500k house.
William Scott
Sickens me how all the billionaires flee to the last few unswamped "white" countries - I'm not sure how far NZ has even been chinked yet - whilst advocating for the same destruction elsewhere.
Sebastian Carter
we all aren't that lucky/cant wait for parents to die. im almost 30 and if i dont impregnate a bitch soon ill be shooting blanks/creating retards. i bought a house that will last me 30 years (5 bedroom, 4.5 bath) and im gunna fill it with little shitheads that she gets to take care of while i shitpost on Jow Forums all day. economy can tank, raise, who cares. i have my piece of land everyone else can fuck off.
Oliver Walker
I mean a range of things could happen - however were there to be a deleveraging of real estate you should be able to pay off your mortgage with cheaper currency if you've hedged yourself - you should be fine.
Congratulations I suppose by the way...?
Christian Bell
I agree, which is why I'd say it's a decent longer term target, but in the short term they'll be looking to siphon as much money as possible that comes into their orbit like the rest of the western countries. The Aussies have the highest minimum wage in the world iirc among a lot of other "free" shit that will need to be paid for. But once the desperate reaching stops and things calm down it'll probably be time to buy. We'll probably be old men by the time this all plays out but it'll be a significant leg up for any children if we move carefully.
Juan Lewis
I have shit tons of food, water, ammo, guns etc I'm ready to rock and roll. If you're not retarded certain people will be poised to thrive and capitalize on massive gains.
Elijah White
>currency reset You are like little baby, we need mass genocide of all shitskins.
Christian Moore
I wouldn't mind them if you tried setting them on the bankers first - the bankers are after all trying to set them on you.
Ryan Lopez
after trump term it all comes crashing down
Benjamin Martin
Most people will die within the first month of a collapse when the stores don't have food and water. Racial tensions will explode as niggers and spics leave their dilapidated ghettos to raid White neighborhoods. Honestly I can't fucking wait I'd rather have a economic collapse then get rich via crypto or the market. So many people will die you'll be bale to just fucking take whatever you want if you're smart enough.
