Economic Collapse Thread.
Get in here fellow /bears/. ITT we talk about positions we should take to avoid getting absolutely assfucked when the current series of bubbles pops. In the past few months, we've seen Turkey and Argentina shit themselves. More emerging economies are next. The effects of the trade war, Brexit, interest rate hikes, Democrats likely taking back the House in November - all are working and interacting together to ruin your shit.
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All in $TZA $40 Jan'19 calls
the crash is inevitable. the only reason it hasn't happened yet is because the particular reasons that will be told for it happening haven't fully been setup yet. 2019-2020 is when the shit flies. if you're still in the market now, you will slowly bleed until the crash. lock in profits now and sit back and wait for a while. buy back in at lower than half price when it blows over. this is an excellent opportunity to create a lot of wealth for yourself. good luck, bros.
Silver bug user here, if you aren't buying physical Ag you're an idiot
theyre using every trick in the book to keep markets up though.
what will be the catalyst? Interest rates? the treasury yield reversing?
past performance does not guarantee future returns.
I suspect a hell of a lot of bobos are going to be btfo in the next 2 years.
Oh god oh god should I just sleep in my car and stock pile cash and BTC?
Is there a point in paying off student loans or should I carry the debt for a couple years and see what happens first to take advantage of such an opportunity?
Soros said markets were supposed to collapse I think in the 80s but legislation propt it up and no one knows what's going on since.
Death is knocking but no one's letting him in.
Remember to have some fiat at hand because vendors are jews.
>we've seen Turkey and Argentina shit themselves
argiefren here
the reason we are going down the toilet its our own lack of capacity to cut down expenses. the country has been a lot of years in deficit relying on foreign help. now that those $$$ are going back to the US, we have no funding + no plan, so we went to the IMF.
over-simplifying it
you've taken shit decisions for decades
How fucked are you guys? Give it to me straight. Is this all bullshit or will there be blood on the streets?
yeah, pretty much what i said
i dont know about the global current state of economy, but for these reasons i wouldnt take Argentina as an example of the world going down the toilet
Slight downtrend they use Jewish financial magic to send most of the depression to third world countries while the US experiences a recession.
I fucking love Jews so much, just live close to them and everything will be all right.
i would say its in the middle. no blood on the streets for sure for the next months
but the bigger picture is a little bit complex. biggest companies are now involved in the biggest corruption case of our history, so as you can guess, private investment is about to fall on an all time low
we're going to the damn moon because everyone thinks the crash is right around the corner. you won't believe the gains in the coming years. bet on it
Meh, just look at the yield curve and sell your stocks 6 months after reversing, after that you can buy bond ST/MT bond etf and you're good to go.
Once the recession is over go balls deep 3x etf, ez.
The markets will crash sometime during the 2020 election primaries to make Trump look bad. This is why it was a stupid decision for him to take credit for new ATH in the market, wtf is he going to say/do when it all comes crashing down?
>"All in" on options. 100% in.
>might not actually understand what "all in" means.
Pessimists are supposed to be more cautious than this.
Blood on streets in 18 months.
He will blame China
In case any of you still bullish on the overall market and economy at large let me remind you of:
- Tech companies sitting on massive inventories
- Q2 growth rate likely peak
- Inequality higher than it has ever been, dragging on consumer spending
- US govt investment as % of GDP is at postwar low of 3.35%, and corporations aren't picking up the slack, opting instead to sit on trillions
- Market driven to current highs by buyback bonanza
- Fed rate increases are going to make emerging economies that are heavily indebted (like Turkey and Argentina) start to feel the pain
- Net FDI to the United States headed to 2008 levels
Upcoming events to keep eyes on:
- Fed meeting in late September
- Notes coming due for Tesla in November and March, will test capital markets
- November elections
- Brexit in March
- Holiday spending numbers
- Effects of trade war
I can't say I'm convinced by precious metals as a store of value during an economic crisis but then again I don't really know much about the subject.
By checking out the gold price chart I can see a pretty intense bull run for gold starting around Q3 2017, can this be partially attributed to people buying gold as a hedge to the shitty economic conditions emerging at the time? There's no such trend to be seen for silver so I'm assuming it must be down to something else.
Otherwise given the levels of adoption in Turkey and Venezuela I'd say that bitcoin has a pretty decent shout as being a solid crisis-currency to weather the storm in. As far as actual currencies go, how would the Swiss franc fare as a store of value?
Another issue to note is the general financial and political instability within the EU- especially the Southern European countries are up to their necks in debt, with debt to GDP percentages of 178% for Greece, 132% for Italy, 126% for Portugal, and 97% for France, with no signs of decreasing anytime soon. Couple that with a lot of disgruntlement towards the EU as an institution amongst countries like Italy, Poland and France and you have a recipe for potential disaster, especially if secession is on the cards.
lets just say this. if you lived in turkey iran or argentina and you had bitcoin or gold instead of their currencys you would still have all your money while everyone else got poor overnight
is coming if you draw a big picture.
Stocks ath, gold and silver down.
> whales are accumulating
and folks looks at stocks
States having a default can't buy gold, so look for crypto and folks will buy crypto
> whales are accumulating
crypto and stocks will crash both
>whales are accumulating
Blood on the streets sooner or later. This is why the big push for gun control. Politicians trying to survive because they know they are guilty. The ones pushing the hardest are the most guilty.
You will be the first to get the gas
do i buy silver eagles or go robinhood SLV?
what about JNUG?
Are you saying people will flock to gold and crypto?
Noone has ever gone broke from having too much cash
already for stocks and soon for crypto
> whales are accumulating (gold and silver fyi)
Thanks user.
Everyone on this thread should kill themselves :) Im so happy you faggots lost all your money on metals while my market is at all time highs
I hope you all suffer worse than you already are
>Swiss franc
That's an interesting beast because, as stable as the country might be, if the frac appreciates too much too fast against the euro, the competitiveness of Swiss businesses plummets relative to their EZ counterparts in the countries surrounding them. So they're somewhat tied to the euro even though they don't use it. What if the euro has a crisis? What will the SNB do? They'd be in a pickle.
why nobody of u want to buy livestock or plants seeds?
Apparently, you've never been to Zimbabwe.
I live in a resort town and the town council has outlawed the keeping of livestock within the town boundaries.
they spoil too quickly
A jar of heirloom seeds won't spoil that quickly and will be worth its weight in gold in any post-finance situation.
Well this is just plain false
this crisis will lead an increase of military expenditure, and metals market will jupiter and we will return to gold standard adjusted.
In order of best store of value will follow stocks, crypto, and last currencies
Can someone explain to a brainlet how to get rich from this? I have $55k in crypto and absolutely no idea about the real world financial markets
but deutsche vaterland has half of gold reserve of us gold reserve and chinese dama like to hoard gold won't them benefit the most?
If China moves to a transparent gold standard, that will 100% become the global reserve currency, because Chris na is the biggest creditor nation in the world (the same way the US dollar became the reserve currency until big-government types wrecked it with no survivors over the last 70 years)
The SNB will buy more €. Problem is they already own ~500b as they had to have a look that it doesn't fall under 1CHF. They also bound the CHF at the € at the rate of 1:1.15 for almost a year, so yeah, you're right that CHF is closely linke to the €
The interesting thing will be if the euro crashes relative to other big currencies like the USD and what-not. Like, what if the euro loses 40% in six months? The SNB can trade francs for euros to keep their ratio close, but ultimately, that'll push the franc right down with the euro. Will they be comfortable with the franc also dropping 40% relative to the USD? At some point, maybe they just let it roll.
Maybe a better way to phrase that would be: what if the euro hyperinflates? I don't think the SNB would hyperinflate to keep the ratio.
And then we can usher in a dark age of global trade as the only navy fit to police the world collapses with the economy supporting it. Every global reserve currency has involved a navy to control shipping lanes and prevent the need for every country to create levies to support their disparate navies. Literally been this way for over a thousand years and China being unfit to project force past diesel range eliminates them from the running.
#DeclaringStudentLoanBankrupcy
Or something like that
so what are some good careers to weather a collapse? best i've got is hvac
>implying trump will be in office in 2020
Do you read the news? That nigga is going full Nixon
Yes, I would like one loaf of bread.
Okay that will be 1 billion Zimbabwe bux.
Pick a managed fund that did well in the last 15-20 years and wait.
About 10-20% is the maximum you can get. Don't be greedy.
Arent Venezuelans wiping their ass with cash?
Interesting stuff anons, appreciate your contributions.
Most fiat currencies seem pretty unsafe to me given the dependence on easy credit and debt that has been the trend of the last decade or so, especially given that interest rates will be on the rise.
Are there really no other hedging alternatives besides bitcoin and physically hoarding previous metals?
>what is the great depression
>what is the collapse of spain's currency
>what is tulip mania
$TN company valuations mirror $20k BTC
If the economy crashes the value of gold goes with it
There's been a ton of talk on this thread about the Euro and BTC but nobody is talking about how the USD is about to lose its most important store of value: physical safety. American wealth is unbalanced to a tipping point and you can see it in neighborhoods and cities with mansions hidden in the top 20 floors of skyscrapers while people live on the sidewalk. There is an entire generation with nothing to lose, coupled with a large African American population in cities that have become extremely hateful towards the government for the past 60 years. Some of the richest neighborhoods in America only have one or two roads connecting them to the outside world, and these roads now usually have police on them blocking anyone without a serious reason to be there. Very soon it will not be safe for the rich to live anywhere near American cities without having their possessions destroyed/stolen to an extent. This is also happening in England, see their recent parade barricades.
so if I was the federal reserve, and I was protecting rich people, i would
>increase interest rates
>foreign countries suddenly become strapped for USD
>USD gains value because demand
>Cash out all of your USD/US Stocks at ATH
>buy BTC because finite amount
>buy precious metals because finite amount/needed for science and war
>poorest counties with weakest currencies buy into BTC first, become rich
>richest countries with strongest currencies buy into BTC last, become poor
>entire economy gets turned on its head with richest of the rich still on top
ikr? JEWS RULE!!
>implying countries aren't buying massive amounts of cryptos
Hello zoomer. If recommend not posting in the future till you learn some basic history
>ooga booga collusion is real
>being this fucking retarded
you should calm down
sure is zerohedge in here, too bad you've missed an amazing run
Doesn't look as bad from here
I finally paid off all my debt and I'm stocking up on crypto and PM (already have a house I'm renting out for real estate gains). I'm also stacking cash to move into the stock market but I haven't identified any buy targets yet. I'd like to get in on oil companies but need to do my homework.
If it crashes tomorrow I'll probably just start pumping the cash I have into stocks with the best asset/cap ratio I can find and hope for the best. Definitely going to avoid tech companies and financial companies.
dotcom bubble? explain a brainlet
This is a chart of the Fed's monetary tightening policy calender. They're selling UST (United States Treasuries) and MBS (Mortgage-backed securities). Now watch how the two coincide when they buy and when they sell,
Notice how much they are dumping in one single day on October 31st. It'll be priced in and potentially cause a market route (a small one) in order to shake things up for the mid terms, especially given how Trump has taken full credit for the market rally since his election
Moreover, the share buybacks by the FAANGs are basically the only thing keeping up the markets at this point. So much for diversification, right?
whats ganna happen?
They're buying, and buying, and that's how companies like Apple hit their $1T market cap, along with Amazon joining too. But there is a catch to all this buying back - it's financed mostly through debt
... Debt which we can see in this image.
Keep this all in mind when the Federal Reserve is tightening the money supply AND raising interest rates in conjunction
Institutional investors know what's up, and they are fleeing the scene. Other on the other hand are racking up risky assets to deliver yields they have promised. Oh and also Jow Forums people opening trading accounts for the first time ever and piling in on the all time high
The correlation isn't pretty, and there will be a lot of people here and elsewhere who will be caught in the door way as they rush for the exits. These are going to be some of the heaviest bags ever
All that, and also the yield spread is pinching together meaning short term risk is giving almost as much as long term risk. Something around the corner is being priced in ;)
To where to we exit though? Basically anything is in a bubble. Inverse ETFs, PMs? Tell me senpai
All in all, pull out and buy EDZ in the mean time as the thrashing continues. South Africa has just entered a recession with 2 negative GDP quarters this year, Brazil is hurting with their own GDP print and China's markets have been in bear territory for months. It's only a matter of time before the sweet inflow of foreign money ends and the debt becomes too heavy. Too many people forgot that the music can actually stop and there won't be enough chairs to go around
This. The Rothschilds and other megariche have been doing this for generations and yet no one else can seem to figure it out.
This
with a side of this
finance.yahoo.com
Play this using the Slow Stochastic Oscillator. Bought today because the signal is just right
Also do it using 4H or 1D candlesticks, see for yourself how accurate the SSTO is
Goodnight for now
Is it just me or is EDZ slowly rising. If you look at the monthly chart it has this very ominous pattern. But there's no fucking way this shit is going to 10,000+ a share again.
Yeah wow it's almost like leveraged etfs always decay over time
Well this thread is terrifying...
based sam poster who is actually him
You mean Trumps tax policies? It's like Republicans fuck everything up and then blame democrats when they go in and fix things. Last surplus was bill clinton.
They will all move to Israel and lock us all out
>alternatives
Land? Not that I can afford any..
So fuck it my stocks are on an ATH (I bought in way before this run) and my cryptos are currently down only 80% from ATH.
Should I sell stocks and get more crypto? When will the economy bubble pop? This year? After christmas?
Yep. Also dump your retirement - it's a honey pot that won't be there when you need it.
> thinks voting matters
> thinks the blue tie pedophiles are better than the red tie pedophiles
So buy bitcoin, gold, and leveraged bear ETFs against China? Anything else?
Have your exit strategy mapped out, broader society is already getting more belligerent and antagonistic when the shits at all time high.
Never understood this strategy.
You fiat value will be worth less too - do people forget this? Your $10,000 will not be able to buy you $10,000 worth of stock if it then is valued at
>Interest rates?
historically has been the catalysis...once they start to rise, they keep rising until a crash inevitably happens. Think how low the interest is right now...the market can't take that big of a hike
>MUH ANTI MICROBIAL, this is a speculative asset...silver is a junk metal user, at least gold is used in electronics & jewellery...the only ppl that buy silver are to poor to buy gold...
And you have cunt? What sort of dumbass statement is that. Next time you go to post do us all a favour and just fucking don't. Dense mongrel cunt.
I cancelled my pension scheme last month. There will be no pension handout the GOVT's will use it to bail out their failed economy.
I'm using what little amount I'd be putting into it - into Bitcoin. Normies call me crazy but we will see which is more profitable in 20 years time.