Relax biz it's all part of the plan
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Statistical models say there is a 80-95% chance of this happening. Volume profile confirms. Can't give you my code b/c I'll lose my edge. Just a minor deviation from the last model. Resistance faced in the past, and now will become support on the way up. Just like how 5-6k become support where as before it was resistance.
what model?
Seconding
New ATH before EOY? Lol
Carhart four factor modeling on Bitcoin. Modified heavily from some research papers back in 2010. Works really well over long periods, there is some calibration involved that takes a long time to perfect (machine learning helps). The one I use with my team is was accurate to predict 12k Bitcoin last year. It actually went to 19k. Making it much more bullish than expected.
did it accurately or somewhate predict the fall from 19k to where we are today as well? if so good for you, bullish for the rest of us
It predicted 12k as the peak, and that there would be a decline in price movement resulting in the fall. The peak was off (mostly due to human factors like FOMO), but the bottom was accurate in the 5-6k range.
Still haven't solved the fee problem.
not bad fren, not bad at all....
Behold your shit covered salvation.
Less than 4 months remain, how exactly are you planning to push btc over 100k in a bear market, low volume market, improper regulations and bad sentiments? Meme magic and coordinated mass manipulation? Rhetoric question btw, saging this low quality "analysis".
We don't have to do anything. It'll do it on it's own. There is no reason to look for reasons when there are none to look for. It is just a model that has been accurate this far.
What about altcoins?
TELL ME ABOUT REQ
i dont even care if this is legit or not thank you im so fucking depressed its not even funny and its not even like ive lost a lot of money i just didnt sell the top and have been bag holding for half a year
RT is shilling crypto. It can happen through whale wars.
op how can I contact you I will literally pay you if you get this right
We have only run it on Bitcoin, and got successful results. This is due to the large data set of Bitcoin. Alt coins do not have large enough data sets. However, since Bitcoin is the leading indicator of direction in crypto. I think it is safe to say alts will likely benefit from the capital flow from a Bitcoin peak.
>Statistical models say there is a 80-95% chance of this happening.
Hello Marius
Wrong and absolutely false.
Artificial neural nets are correct AT FUCKING BEST 60% of the time.
Stop coping and making up these false stories.
Marius only makes predictions with 100% certainty lol.
I'll believe it when I see it. It took 3 years for BTC to fully recover after Mt.Gox caused the 2013 bubble to pop. I bet it takes at least that long for BTC to recover after this bubble finishes deflating. We won't see 20k again until after the price stabilizes and the normies collectively forget the pain from this bear market. Since the total market cap was higher this time than it was back in 2013-2014, it will take longer for the normies to forget the 2018 crash than it took for them to forget the 2014 crash.
My best guess is we will see 20k BTC again in 2023 and 100k BTC in 2024.
No, not Marius. He runs similar models though. We don't like the attention, nor do we sell the information for profit. Many of us come from MIT. We are scholars.
How big a portfolio do you need in order to afford this software?
bitmain fixed it for us by effing themselves so now they cant afford to spam the mempool anymore.
> statistical model
turns out, bullfags are really this retarded
The whole model isn't based off neural nets. We have a formula that works based off the data set. Machine learning is used to calibrate several coefficients that are applied to the derivatives of the formula.
I'm willing to bet that you guys didn't cross-validate on a dataset that wasn't used for training the model and are now bragging about how "well" you overfitted.
If my speculation is correct then your predictions are utter garbage. If my speculation is wrong, then what sort of training/validation split did you use?
You ARE Marius.
Marius is the only fucker in this entire universe who could believe bullshit like this:
>Statistical models say there is a 80-95% chance of this happening.
It's time to stop Marius.
user, I.... I don't know how else I can tell you
It's over. You need to move on. The money is gone and it's not coming back
I believe in you Marius.
>Open excel
>Do linear regression
>Bitcoin is higher now than it was back in 2008, so the model predicts that bitcoin will go up forever
>Brag on Jow Forums about your fancy statistical model
I know you probably aren't using linear regression, but you still sound like a fucking moron.
>Pretends to be a scholar
>Knows who Marius is
OP is Marius confirmed. AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
GANs? I've been trying to GAN an order book
but dude hes from MIT and a scholar. He used some fancy five factor ASSet pricing model. Heavily modified at that. Straight from a research paper too. Who are you to question anything?
Fucking larpers today man. Price action brings them out of their faeces-covered caves.
so we are finishing an enormous wave 2?
Linear regression is better than meme lines at least.
Hey, that's just your opinion. If you are so smart why don't you have a model? It's easy to shit on ideas. The algo has come a long way since 2014. Some of our mentors where mentioned in these articles.
news.mit.edu
technologyreview.com
"Where mentioned"
Into the trash it goes....
Marius, you said we don't have enough data to predict altcoins, right?
The truth is we don't have enough data to predict Bitcoin either. Ten years is not a lot of time in the grand scheme of things.
OP IS MARIUS LANDMAN
OP IS MARIUS LANDMAN
OP IS MARIUS LANDMAN
OP IS MARIUS LANDMAN
OP IS MARIUS LANDMAN
OP IS MARIUS LANDMAN
OP IS MARIUS LANDMAN
Do as you please. We just wanted to post this here so we can claim that it was on Jow Forums first.
tfw you just want a glimmer of hope and this OP is crushing your soul with his LARPing
Been on Jow Forums since 2006 and you have successfully hurt my feefees via shitposting for the first time, OP
Yea learn to spell first ya brown skinned dothead
We are still higher today than exactly one year ago, and the ATH was in December of last year, so it's not impossible, however unlikely it actually is.
Marius can sell you hope, you just have to believe in the super advanced models designed by his 'team' of MIT phds.
>crypto never produces surprising and seemingly impossible events within the market
until it does; hell, DROP might go to $4000 EOY, never say never, right?
HAHAHAHAHA, you responded to a post in which I made fun linear regression by sending me an article in which you admit to using BAYESIAN linear regression.
Well, excuse me Mr. Fancy Pants. I still think you're a fucking retard.
> why don't you have a model?
I use RNNs to trade stock options. I haven't put any effort into crypto.
Well, excusez-moi monsieur candyass.
I still think you're a fucking retard.
the absolute fucking state.
>j-just hold a couple of years more
Thank you for your dedication OP
>ignore uneducated low IQ pigs and don’t throw pearls at them
Nope. Not linear regression. Those articles where meant to give you insight on some of our mentors. Not our methodology. We use RNN coupled with LSTM and MIST (superior version of NARX).
That is the most obvious monthly descending triangle in the world. Anyone with a brain unironically knows we are at least falling to 4000$ before moon.
Thank you for this, even though I find it hard to believe.
Ok, now we're talking.
>MIST (superior version of NARX)
Do you have links to any good papers about MIST? I haven't heard of it. I briefly tried searching google and arxiv but not much came up.
OP is such a dumb faggot damn... Mixing several terms, mentioning factor models and then linking to an HFT strat, linking to absolute fluff pieces saying shit like
> doubled their investment in 50 days of trading
and then here's the paper:
> arxiv.org
guess how they doubled their fucking investment? Thats right by running a simulation without
> spread
> fees
> slippage
this is why financial academia is such a fucking joke...
the difference is there hasn't been a scandal of that proportion since, just waning enthusiasm
You clearly too low of IQ to comprehend, drink your milk and go to bed
I mean, can we just, for a second, ask a simple question, may I pose, I will, is there any reason Bitcoin CANNOT be $100,000? Because I'm certainly convinced now from this thread it might actually be happening by eoy.
I'm going to wake up tomorrow and everything is going to be even more miserable than today
October will be a good month. I promise.
How can you use RNN to predict the price?
What are the inputs except for price history?
can confirm, i work at jp and were about to release crypto trading to the public on friday
Please get off Jow Forums
>best guess
based on nothing but "I think"?
Retard. Atleast think about what the next bubble will be about. Smart Contracts are due for a bubble and they'll be widely used by 2020.
>There is no reason to look for reasons when there are none to look for.
brainlets here can't trade without a narrative to guide them
hey look, the first actual correct graph on 4chins. Unironcally.
So next stop is 9300?
>that crash from 120k to 60k in a month
OP don't be a cuck, come back here and tell me how to fucking swing trade to increase my stack.
Short 5x at the very top from $120k (on the downside of a head and shoulders figure) and you'll be rich by the time the trend switches back to bull after 60k
The thing is how can you be sur 120k is the top, maybe it will go further. In 2017 everyone was saying 12k is the top, it will crash soon, but it went up to 19k
Dude, arxiv.org
arxiv.org
arxiv.org
Did you even bother skimming arxiv.org
Also, that paper by Guo isn't even about MIST. He used NARX.
The top will be the average price of the head and shoulders. It will look like /\/\/\ or maybe just two tops. Either way it'll look something like that in daily candles (don't go for short duration tops and bottoms, always zoom out) and even if you sell the bottom of these fluctuations it will still have a long way down to correct.
120 was used as an arbitrary figure, nobody knows how much and for how long it will go up or down, except for the market makers
>don't go for short duration tops and bottoms, always zoom out
What timeframe is best? 1H, 3H, 1D, 1W?
Im on Jow Forums and you cant make me think rationally and make my own research. So Ill believe what appears to be good for me. Checkmate, this is not delusion, its CHOOSING A TIMELINE, holy shit I shouldve known this earlier, quantum financial freedom here I come!
1w for determining trends and 1d for daytrading. Hourly candles are a bitch to get good info out of. For example, by using 1w candles I get a feeling like LINK hasn't bottomed out yet and that it is currently on a bulltrap for a month. If you switch to hourly candles it looks like a perfect buy on the way up.
Guess I'll find out soon enough if I fucked up on that swing or not.
Makes sense. Thanks for sharing friend.
The papers are influenced from one another. MIST = Mixed history recurrent neural networks it works for Bitcoin b/c of the network effect.
keked and checked
Marius is the Nate Silver of 2018
>It was bitmain, not the thousands of normies trying to use bitcoin.
I'll just say good luck with you being so gullible... you'll need it