Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others...

this is the most retarded thing ive ever read

So you pick No1 and that faggot opens no. 3 instead which has a goat?

Lol, unless you're picking fault with my approximating 1/3 as 0.33, you couldn't be more wrong

I'm pretty sure this was explained in the movie 21

The three possibilities:
[goat] [goat] [car]
[goat] [car] [goat]
[car] [goat] [goat]

Let's assume you randomly pick door 1 (the left one).
In the first possibility, you win by switching doors (because the host takes away a door with a goat)
In the second possibility as well.
Only the third possibility gets you the car if you don't switch doors.

Thus, switching doors increases your odds of picking the car from 1/3 to 2/3 chance.

And ad nauseum in literature. The interesting point to the thought experiment is how many people refuse to believe that switching is the best strategy- they want to believe that they picked the car the first time, even though logic suggests they did not. It may be the same psychology why people hold losing positions and wait for market reversal to "prove them right" instead of eating a loss and switching to a more profitable hold

it's much easier to understand if there are 100 doors. you pick door 1. what are the chances you guessed right? it's 1/100. what are the chances you didn't guess it right? it's 99/100. that's all that matters.

>Easier to understand
Could be my ASD, but I don't understand why 100% of people can't see that switching is the correct strategy. I understand that the majority of people get this wrong- I understand also that there is a psychological component to their reluctance to switch doors. What I struggle with is understanding why people approach this intuitively (i.e. emotionally instead of logically). That's like admitting they're a mouth breathing brainlet with no understanding of mathematics, and being proud of it

Yes it does you fucking idiot. You don't have to pick again. One of the options was removed leaving you with a 50/50 chance without having to change shit you fucking brainlet

I think their logic is as follows: there are 2 doors left, thus the chances are 50-50

Nope. You can try this with playing cards, you get it right more times when you switch you pick than not.

Watch Vsauce you utter waste of space

>Watch Vsauce

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But scenario 1 is already out since you saw the goat in door 3.

It’s beautiful. That’s what that is.

This is a famous problem. Switching is the right answer, which gives you 2/3 chances of getting the car. Not switching gives you 1/3, since you would have to have gotten it right the first time.
biz is too low IQ to understand it though, as the embarrassment that are the most replies to this thread can show.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Then you hate reality and math. It's ok I do too

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Yep tried it after watching the movie 21 to believe it, my brain is too low IQ to grasp it 100% by itself

Heh, nice try Mr. Kikeberg. I'll have you know i've read Rich Chink, Poor Gook by Robbie Kawasaki so know that the car is a liability while the goat is an asset. As such i will keep my first door and hope to get a goat.

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You should make a game show out of this concept.

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This is the correct answer.
Amerifags don't learn this in school, in Germany it's part of our curriculum kek

retard, unironically kys

This leave 0.001 chance of what exactly? Nice math you got there, checkmate.

You have a 2/3 chance to pick a goat. If you picked a goat and he shows the other goat and you switch, you win the car. So if you pick a goat (2/3 chance) and switch, you win the car. 66.66% chance to win.

If you dont switch your chance is 50/50

For anyone that has a brain jam when trying to wrap their head around the Monty Haul problem, I find taking it to the extreme helps conceptualize it best:

Instead of three doors, you have one million doors. You get to pick one. Chances are you've picked a loser, right?

OK, now the host opens 999,998 doors and they're all goats. Now he offers you the chance to switch.

What are the chances you picked the right door to begin with vs the chances he's just eliminated all the other bad doors and the one remaining is the car?

It's the same thing with 3 doors, just harder to envision how unlikely you were to pick a winner and what a favor he's done by eliminating the bad choices.

>0.33+0.33+0.33+0.001 is 1

Are you american?

> .33 +.33 +.33 = 1

I suggest you write this on paper since your mind cant comprehend that this doesnt equal 1

No didnt help. Don't post here ever again

This is the oldest probability problem in the damn book. It's so famous it has a name. The fucking mythbusters did a segment on it. Look up the Monty Hall problem, it wont cure you being a brainlet but it may help a little.

>Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats
Game gets harder if you're a Muslim

Sounds easier. Everyone’s a winner.

That's real fucking retarded, and only serve to confuse. I think you suck!

Pic related is best way to understand the problem

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Hard mode: What if the host doesn't know what's behind the doors?

>wants Jow Forums to do his Probability homework

>can't add OR subtract

This problem is really simple, just counterintuitive. There's initially a 2/3 chance you picked a goat. The host will always open a goat door irrespective of your intitial choice, so the host opening the door has absolutely no effect on the chances of you having picked a goat. So your chances of winning a goat on your first choice is still 2/3, and you should switch.

The host always reveals a donkey.

Then he sometimes opens the door with the car and can keep it.

No, there always is a goat behind door three. Reread it again, he opens door three and there is a goat, cancelling out the possibilty three that there is a car in there. Therefore there are two possibilities, leaving you with a 50/50 chance.

is this my interview again? I know that one, it's Monty Hall paradox, do I still need to explain it... ?