Thoughts on the U.S. / China Trade War?

let me guess, you guys are big fans of mercantilism and think trade is a zero-sum game right?

>asking loaded questions
>no fucking argument whatsoever except for bitchy basedboy remarks

Get fucked you drop shipping bitch. Time for you to put your Wojak name tag on and ease into the cubicle life. Pussy

is there actually an argument here or is it just you seething?

No he is a retard with typical biz arguing (none).

I could imagine that a trade war is good for bitcoin tho cause more wealthy chinese want to move their wealth aboard.

The ultimate goal of US leadership is to get a better deal from China. While it hurts some industries and is bad politically for those in power, it needs to be done. If we stay the course the next 10-15 years, China will leapfrog the US and whatever measures are being taken now, will have a much less impact in the future.
Trade is only one aspect though, Intellectual property theft is massive, and China is profiting big time. US companies spend billions and decades on research into new tech, then China swoops in, hacks our databases and just starts building. I don’t know if anything can realistically be done about that, all China has to do is deny it and say it’s not state sponsored and we can’t do a thing.

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What needs to be done, if Trump really wants to knock out China (which he should):

>Naval blockade of China
>Tariff on every single product China manufactures
>STRONG stance on the Canadian Gov as they are bought and sold by China
>Forcing inspecting on ALL Chinese imports from British Colombia, Canada (and possibly Alberta) as China circumvents US trade policies such as NAFTA by going through Canada and then into the US
>Internationally humiliating Xi Jinping because the Chinese are all about "strength" and looking "tough" on the world stage
>Kicking the Chinese out of Latin America (Jamaica and the other islands)
>Forcing Mexico to get its shit together by forcing the Mexican gov to stop importing Chinese shit (it was China that started the Mexican drug war back in 2006)

>trump can disable china by declaring war

China is going down regardless of the trade war.

Bubbles.

Why dont we just embargo them? Why beat around the bush?

>declaring war
The one that gonna loose is the us if war broke out with china. Chinese are retarded and brainwashed af, they got literally billion ready to die for nothing mate. If u talk about trade war ,it already happen.

>af
>mate
>u
>it already happen
Sure convinced me

Why do we need to import from China?

We have the last few decades because manufacturing is very cheap over there. But they have a rising middle class, and goods are getting increasingly more expensive over there compared to Malaysia, India, Thailand and a few others. They are in the midst of transforming themselves, lower class people moving up and expecting to be able to afford more and not work the shittiest jobs. China will be our #1 competitor, no question about that. So we do need to even the field now while we can.

This is too extreme, would cause the world economy to halt, markets crash, and out historical allies would turn on us. Naval blockade on them can be considered an act of war.

How many times do we need to finance the rise of a rival Great Power out of a hunger for cheap labor until we learn our lesson? We did it with Russia, again with China, who's next?

>Naval blockade on them can be considered an act of war.

So what about China flooding the US with fentanyl? Or undermining the US internationally. Don't be a cuck

What is the return on investment for most of these allies?

>IQ range between a pebble and potato
The Chinese have not won a single war in a few thousand years (almost literally). A conflict with conventional weapons as a result of this trade war is babby talk.

Wow user, tell us how you really feel.

Stay mad Ching Chong.

I really think we'll be buying our Nintendos and Adidas off the dark web at a 45% discount by the time Trump's out of office.
I don't think we'll be able to travel in and out of the country without reason either.

I think China's going to be somewhere between Russia and Venezuela economically. They will depend on smugglers to prop up their economy and smugglers don't pay taxes.

The problem lies within the inadequate term-based system we have - it basically incentivizes every presidential candidate to go for the most short-term grandiose "strategic" plans they could muster. Meanwhile China has been working on plans to become the #1 world power for literally decades, eg. started building relationships with African countries so they could be the next manufacturing centre China would outsource to, to fuel the next industrial revolution, to sustain the rate economic growth. What we need is real competent leadership, to keep our country relevant on the world stage. Judging from the number of layman uninformed comments here, it's not looking good

nice bait

Last time US cracked down that hard on an asian nation it ended with two nukes...

This would make sense in theory, but the bureaucracy runs our foreign policy, and is unelected. They're generally up for sale to the highest bidder, though.

based

Let China have Africa. America, Russia, and Japan will have the stars.

China is in a really bad position and the leadership knows it. I think they were too aggressive to Trump since they didn't think US politicians would fight back against all the crap they have pulled for the last few decades.

China doesn't have too many things left to counter the US. They can start to target American companies in China, but they would hurt Chinese people and companies. Everything is a join venture there, so it will hurt some politician in the party. The US will not get these jobs back, but they can move them to other countries that are friendlier to them (Vietnam, India, etc).

>since they didn't think US politicians would fight back against all the crap they have pulled for the last few decades.

To expand on this, I'm willing to bet that most of China's leadership drank down the kool-aid that China is invincible and that they can successfully lobby/bully/harass American politicians to not start a trade war due to fears of them creating a new economy with Russia and Europe. However this doesn't work because in the real world American leftists are the most critical of China (tibet, workers rights, etc) while pro-China conservatives are either dead (Nixon), retired (Kissenger) or humiliated (Jeb). Obama himself was the last straw, he himself was elected instead of Hilary because he was going to have a trade war ten years ago, when that didn't pan out voters went for Trump. This happened despite 10+ years of TPP negotiations aimed at containing China diplomatically. And even neoliberals can't defend China anymore due to their muslim internment camps.

They also thought they could bully US firms directly by threatening to hold cargo at their ports, but all this is doing is causing companies to cut China off entirely. Their previous plan of simply buying out US firms didn't work either since Trump simply told them No, ditto for attempted expansions of Chinese businesses into the US market which US firms simply aren't promoting or engaging with.

Point is, they misread the entire situation. It's becoming increasingly obvious that US firms will just relocate while China either capitulates or accepts a recession.

I agree, I am a local chink born and raised in Hong Kong, mainland Chinese re sub human scum, and most HK people look forward to a major disaster happen in China which would wipe at least half of its population to oblivion

a shame your grandchildren wont remember any of your hong kong roots

based hong kongese

Fucking hell I am crossing my fingers and hoping this happens

big if true, based user where did you get such a large knowledge base on this subject

Commies think it will cause a world collapse

in reality it will bring industry back to America and cause a golden age, for America :)

At what point do people in China start murdering each other of scarcity of resources?

aus $25milliom people
Us $250 million people
Yeah im going to call bullshit on that without checking.

Based, what coins are you holding?

No coin, might buy some btc when it falls to sub 6000
Have been eyeing on silver and gold, but it seems hard to sell which is a huge downer

China is self-sufficient, unlike many other countries. It can weather through a collapse of external trade. It was never reliant on trading with other countries throughout its history. Unfortunately, despite Trump's good intentions, America will suffer more. US companies have huge profit margins from outsourcing their manufacturing operations to China due to China having lax laws, lower labor costs, etc. A lot of small to medium size businesses are also dependent on products from China. The tariffs will only put the smaller businesses out of business while giving large companies less competition. The tariffs won't make the US competitive in the export market. It will only raise the cost of goods and services domestically.

Typical snobbish hong kong attitude. Never suffered through anything but think they're the top of the world.

i love this desu

there is nothing more amusing than one gook thinking he's superior to another gook

you're literally all the same to us

They could also sell off their US debt causing a collapse of your financial economy.

Personally i don't care, as that other user pointed out China imports a lot from Australia. My country is fucked regardless.

Chinks are worse than niggers if you buy into their propaganda you deserve to stay poor

They will literally eat each other.

>implying ZOGnald Trump is gonna do that

>China is self-sufficient
Yeah right. They will not starve but the new middle class with cars and shiny apartments can say their lifestyle good bye the minute the second all those indebted overleveraged factories can't sell their stuff anymore or just sell slightly less.

It doesn't really matter in the end. The rich are going to be able to weather through this while poor and middle class folks are going to be totally fucked by the rising prices. Have you even look at the list of goods being affected by the tariffs?

Yeah, just go back to pre 1978

lol dumb chink. you think 500 billion dollar defecit is gonna bode well for China? they already have massive capital outflow and a titanic housing bubble. USA got China by their tiny balls and both players know.

Wars between powers in modern days have changed shaped.
No more direct confrontations with fuck huge armies. They are now done via economy, technology, finances and migrations (yes, making other countries take more niggers, mudslimes and shit races is part of the warfare).

China has been doing what they did to the British prior to the Opium Wars: exporting their products and only accepting currency as payments. Not taking in British merchandise was what triggered the whole opium trade (because it was the only merchandise the Chinese people would pay for no matter what)

China has been protecting their markets while subsidizing their industries. And as a result, they are udercutting everyone and effectively stole other countries' industries (which indirectly lead to social degeneracy). There is also the technology theft threat, which is really a big "fuck you" to those who invested heavily in R&D.

Imo China is getting a just dessert of the shit they have been doing. Their rise to power must be met and fought, simply because this what powers do. Look up the Thucydides's Trap.

Trump is simply trying to bring the factories back to the USA and putting the NPCs back to work instead of doing drugs and being degenerate. The timing is good because China is facing a credit bubble and potential malinvestment.

Media has been talking about Xi JinPing's newly obtained absolute powers.
Rather than a proof of confidence, I think it is a proof of weakness of the Communist Party.
See all the population controll shit they have been pulling out:
>Social Credit
>people getting rekt because they air their unpatriotic opinions
>increasing censorship

People in China will keep their mouths shut if they are still fed and feel rich (eg. Real estate and financial assets prices somehow maintained).

Lol if you believe this. First off, the majority of their currency reserves are in dollars and they need every single one to absorb capital flight like what happen in 2015. Dumping them would appreciate their currency and make exports expensive and kill their economy. The US, which you say would get hurt, would end up increasing interest rates and make Treasuries more attractive. The US already has a bunch of complaints from countries saying we aren't printing enough dollars, so this would only satisfy that demand.

I'd like for everyone to take a moment from arguing about drumf and chinks to take a look at this completely oblivious NPCs canned response.

lol dumb Ameriretard. you think 500 billion dollar defecit is gonna bode well for US? they already have massive capital outflow and a titanic housing bubble. China got the USA by their tiny pink balls and both players know.

Ever see the stories of people from the rural mainland going into the industrialized urban areas and stealing people's fucking pet dogs to kill and sell? Shit's fucked. It's like an unprecedented culture clash compared to anything in the west save for the mass migration issue

All i know is that USA will win this trade war. China can't do anything to retaliate unless they plan on shutting Apple factories and killing millions of Chinese jobs.

The virgin concessions.
The chad trade war

>No politics please, just your thoughts on the economic and business implications.
a trade war is ultimately a political war. not economic.

>desu
christ

In the short time it seems bad because all the sudden some industries dont have their imports like cheap Chinese steel but the US will greatly benefit in the long run because over time American businesses will fill that niche and make the country much more self reliant + add on jobs.

>TL;DR very good in the long run, dont be stuck thinking in the 'now'

Or sell all the US debt it holds fucking you over hard. Push them far enough and maybe we get to see a real financial collapse.

The only one getting fucked here is the consumer. Time to start freeing ourselves of unnecessary material possessions.

Lol if you think China dumping US treasuries would benefit the US. Absolute brainlet.

Well then, perhaps you ungrateful colonials shouldn't have driven out the British. You made your bed, now lie in it.

pretty sure china will be fine for 2 or 6 years, especially since they are getting resources dirt cheap in Africa

Congratulations on dedicating an entire post to a filtered word newfag

You mainland chinks are going to burn in hell motherfuckers

Hopefully mainland Chinese will commit mass suicide as the bubble bursted and all of their asset confiscated by the mainland government to pay for their huge debt due to malinvestment
Let's keep our fingers crossed that China will never ever be a superpower

3 times some NPC has said it's bait but none of you brainless twats have any argument. the US and China agreed to be bound by the WTO when they both joined and to follow its regulatory framework if there is a trade dispute. unilaterally ignoring the WTO when it doesn't suite you goes to show you that there really is no merit in the USA's complaints. if the USA were confidant that China were breaking rules agreed upon, we'd see them go through the WTO or move to include new rules in the WTO. neither has happened.

>put your fate in the hands of a 3rd party

There is a reason brexit is happening.

>if you were confidant that someone punched you, thereby breaking rules agreed upon, we'd see you go through the police or move to include new rules regarding the acceptability of baseless accusations. neither has happened
Therefore no crime has occurred q.e.d

a complaint may be valid, the issue is if parties involved can prove whether it occurred or did not occur to a third impartial body. as agreed upon when they both parties joined in a organization with contractual obligations. if you are going to convince me as some random with no intimate knowledge of the dispute, you're going to have to convince a impartial panel of experts. as far as im concerned, i trust the WTO rulings more then accusations from China or the USA. both are self-serving entities that cannot be trusted.

brexit happened because British people were not happy with it. they used a legal clause in their membership to remove themselves from the union.

>both are self-serving entities that cannot be trusted
No shit, that's the whole point.
If you know your opponent will lie, creating an impasse at best, why would you bother with arbitration?
And if said arbitrator is toothless, why would you lend it legitimacy?

I would go binding arbitration. If i felt that I had broken no rules and am absolutely confidant that the other party has broken the rules and I have clear and convincing evidence to support my argument, i would absolutely submit to binding arbitration.

>>And if said arbitrator is toothless, why would you lend it legitimacy?

because to me, being able to win your argument by swaying a panel of independent experts proves to me which side is objectively right. i'm not arguing legitimacy through power, i'm arguing legitimacy through fact.

>independent experts
>independent
I would argue there's no such thing, geopolitics being what it is.
And that's probably the point the US is attempting to make as well.

This is wrong. China is a net food importer by a large margin, and the only reason they haven't had a social revolution despite the government's bullshit policies is because of their strong economy. There will be a ton of social unrest if they experience a recession.

>matters of the balance of the world
>finding someone independent
you would have to start raising children in beige rooms and teaching them esperanto. And then the world would be rulled by pale weirdos.

there have never been any complaints at the impartially of the WTO dispute panels. nor have there ever been any instances of corruption in it's decades long history. both parties agree to include or exclude whoever is reviewing the case. it is as impartial as you are going to get. the alternative? HE said She said endless scenario.

thanks but i'd rather take my chances with a supposed impartial panel of experts over the self-serving nature of China and the USA.

I think he's saying that they're impartial.
Like the UN.

another thing, the USA has used the WTO many many times in it's history and has acknowledged its rulings for and against it. this is a bad precedent when suddenly a topic comes up and the USA does not want to run a paralleled complaint along with their USITC sanctioned complaints. what are they afraid of if their complaints are strong and if the WTO ruling doesn't go their way, they can ignore it?

in order to have a mfr base
you have to start with a resource base
dont miss out next month user

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you are ignoring some pretty fundamental laws of nature bud.
"impartial" third parties can work in some scenarios because people are willing to sacrifice their short term benefits for long term cooperation (companies appealing to arbitration for contract disputes). Sometimes they work because the third party has far more power than either party (the law gets involved in a blood feud between two families).
What we are talking about here are two of the most powerful organisms to ever exist battling for supremacy and ultimately survival. An impartial third party is at best a joke of a speed bump.

i am not arguing the matter of fact 'might makes right'. i'm arguing if the USA's complaints are a matter of fact objectively truthful or not.

the only way to get a clear and convincing consensus on what is 'objectively true' in a trade dispute is to have a arbitrator review all evidence provided by both sides and have them recommend a resolution. both parties agreed to be bound by the WTO dispute resolution process when they joined the WTO. if either party is genuine in their belief that the other party has broken any rules, they should fulfill their obligations of membership.

I am a software developer for an industrial robotics company.

Lot's of blue-collar Americans are excited about the factory work coming back. They assume it's going to be like it was back in the 20th century. They are arrogantly wrong and have no clue how little blue-collar jobs will be generated from factories coming back to the USA. Corporations are dumping billions into automation, buying out startups, hiring for robotics and automation, etc. It is creating a plethora of easy-to-enter middle class salaried tech jobs that only really require an associates degree because you still need someone to troubleshoot problems. However, the days of showing up with a hard-hat and lunchbox to weld a chassis or bolt doors onto a car etc are long, long gone.

China doesn't give a shit about its middle and lower class and will cull them to balance the resources if America wrecks then too hard.
Most Chinese people don't even have an internal monologue.
They think with urges and have a hivemind mentality. They'll die for the sake of the hive. They already suffer by getting a dollar an hour working in the factories. Culling them wouldn't be an issue. China has nothing to lose and nobody knows it.

hey what is the chinese version of the JIDF called?

dunno, is there an argument to be had here in response to my statement or are you just going to shitpost NSA?

just curious. Thought you might be able to help me out.
Anyways, the appeal to honor and due process has long been a Chinese tactic to run the clock out. It's their only strategy or else they will kick the bucket. Appear genuine and submit while working behind their back and Bob's your uncle. Though I feel like they are starting to understand such a strategy is a damp squib.

As someone with a masters in international business this thread is the funniest thing I've read in a long time, you realize that crypto is a gift of heaven when even some of these retards are making money with it..

no idea, you might be better off googling it.

well if either party doesn't want to be follow the WTO, an organization they voluntarily joined, they are free to leave. but that hasn't happened has it? shouldn't join an organization if you are just going to pick and choose which rules to follow, some would say that's deceitful.