Do you guys think Tesla survives 2018? 2019?

Do you guys think Tesla survives 2018? 2019?

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Nope.

>what is fud?
>what is the Automotive industry

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They’ll make it through this year, but maybe not 2019.

Tesla has almost $1B of debt coming due between now and February 27. The debt is convertible at $360/share, so if the share price is above 360 the debt holders will convert and no cash will be required to retire the debt. That was Tesla’s plan.

If the share price doesn’t recover by February, the company will need to pay the bond holders. Unless there’s a dramatic change in cash burn, they won’t have the cash to pay off the bonds.

Now, without the SEC charges, Tesla could roll the debt over. It would be expensive, as rates have risen in general and Tesla’s credit rating is trash...but they could do it. The problem is that companies under SEC investigation are prohibited from raising capital (either through bond issuance or share offering). So they have no access to capital to make that February debt payment.

Musk kept saying there would be positive earnings and cash flow in Q3 and Q4. Analysts don’t agree, but share holders better hope so. If they lose more than $800m in cash over the next 3 quarters, they will default on their debt. And then it’s bye-bye Tesla.

Analysts have said that due to a massive production push, combined with a massive delivery push they are likely to beat the car delivery estimates.

Sure

i just sold for a 20% loss. So yes this shit is going to skyrocket past 400 a share in less than a week now.

Delivery estimates and free cash flow are not the same thing. A lot of the vehicles being delivered over the last quarter had deposits placed on them. Meaning the cash was already on Tesla’s balance sheet. Every Model 3 they sell that was held by deposit generates very little, if any, free cash flow.

They also played some games with cash flow statements in Q2. They showed an improvement to cash burn in Q2, but digging into the balance sheet shows it was likely smoke and mirrors. They drew on a line of credit and deferred payments to vendors to make it appear that they only burned 150m in cash. Those vendors likely want to be paid.

I’m not saying that Tesla is definitely sunk, but there are major issues that could affect their ongoing solvency. I sure wouldn’t pay $270/share for this shitshow.

tesla can die and nothing was lost, spacex is where all the really interesting tech will come from anyway

During the next financial crash (coming soon) musk will unironically become bankrupt and probably end up in jail.

But due to this massive bullshit federal reserve ponzi market, Tesla will manage to stay alive until then. Money is just too cheap

Literally Tesla is the Edsel of our time.

Money is not cheap for Tesla. Their bonds are trading at a yield over 8%.

Besides, they are prohibited from raising capital while the SEC investigation is ongoing.

Q3 might not end up profitable, but it will be close. They are quite likely to achieve profitability in Q4, which will most certainly send their shares past $360 anyway.

In the unlikely event that Q4 ends up in red, they'll have around $1B cash on hand (after paying off the 1B debt) which will be enough to carry them.

The likely worst case scenario for Tesla is that it'll be taken private at ~$250 by the Saudis.

You have to take the same drugs as Elon. They are not even close to be profitable. Not even adjusted with all the subsidies included

>what is capex
>what is manufacturing S-Curve
Not that I expect a Jow Forumslet to have a basic econ understanding.

Profitable =/= cash flow positive. You dont have to be profitable to service debt.

>What is p/e ratio
>More worth than GM
Quick sum up for retards like you who defend one the most shorted Stocks out their.

bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-burns-cash/?utm_source=ifttt

Btw what do you wanna tell about capex? Opex is relevant too, you cannot just look at one parameter.
>Cherryng in stock valuation, lmao

>literally just stuff NASA developed 50 years ago
>no new r & d

That was never my argument. With what exactly have i ever implied the cash flow? Tesla wouldn't even exist in a healthy capitalism economy. But hey let's give them more subsidies, right?

What has SpaceX done so far what NASA hasn't? At least it creates some kind of competition. But then again... NASA will always exist

What exactly is supposed to change from Q2 to Q4? The production numbers of Model 3s are still the same they were during Q2 (3000-4000 per week), and they made no operational profits in that quarter.

Also, Im pretty sure marketing their lane-keep as "complete auto pilot" is going to cause legal issues sooner or later.

>What is p/e ratio
A boomer indicator that literally doesn't matter in a growth stock. The fact that you even bring up this meme with a company like Tesla is laughable.
>More worth than GM
Yes, so?
>Btw what do you wanna tell about capex?
Their cash burn was due to capex related to Model 3 ramp up, both of which have inversely correlated relationship.
>Opex is relevant too
Model 3 has over 20% gross margin, potentially up to 30%.
>What has SpaceX done so far what NASA hasn't?
>what has a company that BTFO'd whole aerospace industry in 16 years done
Now I'm sure you're trolling and I regret wasting my time replying.

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You do realise though they threw these two nicely landed rockets away afterwards? Reusability is a meme.

>What exactly is supposed to change from Q2 to Q4?
Less capex necessary, more cars produced.
Those boosters were block 4, brainlet. They are throwing away block 4 boosters to make space for block 5.
>Reusability is a meme.
You're a walking Dunning-Kruger.

>Throwing away boosters just because

Yeah, sure thing shilly. They are throwing them away because they are too expensive to refurbish, and the Block 5 will have the same fate.

>Subsidies would solve that issue

Shorters will close their positions and go long, because the fundamentals are there more than any other company in the world. Tesla will be alright

I really can't go long on Tesla because Elon is a rich billionaire who is still naive and excluded enough to actually not have been told about the anti-gravity technology and that the dark side of the moon is off-limits to onlookers

Not really. Unlike Aerospace, the car industry is actually full of very efficient and highly competetive competitors. The only reason they didnt go into E-cars yet is because, as Tesla shows, its not profitable yet. They all have spent billions in E-car development and will flood the market as soon as battery prices drop low enough.

And soon someone will be able to buy their IP for pennies on the dollar.