Chainlink is a sleeping giant in crypto. It is poised to not only disrupt the entire crypto space via its smart contract services but will create and monopolize a future API industry. In doing so it will become the information backbone that the world’s financial and technical systems run on. Smart contracts will automate everything around us, we cannot comprehend how truly massive this industry will be, or how large a role Chainlink will play. This is my attempt to make a few educated guesses with some real numbers to try and work out what is possible for Chainlinks valuation.
Chainlink Valuation Breakdown
Robert Gomez
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Lincoln Gutierrez
Uses for Chainlink, and sources of value:
1) Deposit for penalty payment on return of bad data
2) Payment for API access on the Chainlink network
3) Smart Contract Platform for scalable and secure off-chain contracts
Angel Campbell
1 - Deposit for penalty payment on return of bad data
Looking at current use cases, the largest single sector that will be upended by smart contracts is the derivatives market. Totaling all derivative contracts gives us an estimated gross market value of $12.7 Trillion. These contracts are between entities concerning every possible type of investment asset on the planet, and is a market primed for the use of smart contracts.
I think it would be safe to assume, that just as all media has become digital, the vast majority of contracts including derivative contracts will become digital in the future. To make sure these smart contracts are executed with the proper data, Chainlink allows contract owners to subscribe to Chainlink nodes to provide data. These nodes are required to have a certain amount of Chainlinks token (Link) reserved to insures the integrity of the data. In the case that the Chainlink node returns bad data, the node is required to pay this reserve as a penalty payment to the contract owner. How much Chainlink will be held in reserve relative to the contracts value will be decided by the free market
Wyatt White
It is possible contract owners would want to fully insure against bad data ruining the execution of a high value contract, meaning that total reserves for penalty payments could be equal to the total of the contract market itself. I believe it is more likely that the market will use penalty payments as an incentive for node operators, and not as insurance. Still, contract owners would want to choose Chainlink nodes with the highest penalty amounts, as they would have a higher incentive to return the best data. This is large part of what gives a node reputation on the network. The higher the reputation, the more business they will get and the more money they will receive. With a higher reputation, a Chainlink node can charge more to access their data. It is impossible to say what percentage of Link will be locked up in penalty payments in regard to the market size, but I personally think 10% is a reasonable number.
Low Estimate – Smart Contracts take over 10% of the derivatives market and 5% reserve for penalty payments gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $63.5 Billion, and a value of $63.50 per Link token.
Medium Estimate – Smart Contracts take over 30% of the derivatives market and 10% reserve for penalty payments gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $381 Billion, and a value of $381 per Link token.
Moon Estimate – Smart Contracts take over 100% of the derivatives market and 100% reserve for penalty payments gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $12.7 Trillion, and a value of $12,700 per Link token.
*note: This is only looking at today’s existing derivative contracts, and does not take into account other contracts not covered by this market, or the growth of the derivative market in the future.
Cameron Taylor
2 - Payment for API access on the Chainlink network
APIs are currently a Trillion-dollar industry, and are growing at an extremely rapid pace, set to triple over the next year. Chainlink allows companies to directly monetize their data sources, which will spur these services into the stratosphere. With smart contracts as a driving force, we will easily see the API industry grow into a $10 trillion + industry in a very short time. Link will be a large part of the value being used in this market, and depending on its velocity as a currency, it will have a large market cap from its use in API access.
Low Estimate – Chainlink is integrated with 10% of the world’s APIs market at 3 Trillion and has a Velocity of 10x/year gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $30 Billion, and a value of $30 per Link token.
Medium Estimate – Chainlink is integrated with 20% of the world’s APIs market at 10 Trillion and has a Velocity of 5x/year gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $400 Billion, and a value of $400 per Link token.
Moon Estimate – Chainlink is integrated with 50% of the world’s APIs market at 20 Trillion and has a Velocity of 3x/year gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $3.3 Trillion, and a value of $3,300 per Link token.
Adrian Price
3 - Smart Contract Platform for scalable and secure off-chain contracts
Just as it is possible for smart contract platforms to pull data from the Chainlink network, they will also be able to pull the state of offchain smart contracts that are fully managed and computed by Chainlink nodes. This concept is similar to the Lightning Network for Bitcoin, helping with the scaling issues plaguing current smart contract platforms. Additionally, Chainlink contracts would be accessible by any of the existing or future Smart Contract platforms, private or public, as Chainlink is blockchain agnostic. It is entirely possible Chainlink becomes the preferred smart contract platform, with existing chains simply becoming settlement layers. Currently all Smart Contract platforms have a Market Cap of totaling around 40 Billion. This is an industry prepped to explode in the near future, with little doubt it will reach over 1 Trillion when it reaches mainstream adoption.
Low Estimate – Chainlink is used for computing 5% of Smart Contracts at an industry market cap of 500 million. This gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $25 Billion, and a value of $25 per Link token.
Medium Estimate – Chainlink is used for computing 10% of Smart Contracts at an industry market cap of 2 Trillion. This gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $200 Billion, and a value of $200 per Link token.
Moon Estimate – Chainlink is used for computing 80% of Smart Contracts at an industry market cap of 5 Trillion. This gives Chainlink a Market Cap of $4 Trillion, and a value of $4000 per Link token.
Jack Cox
Chainlink will see use in all these industries, and as such to find its true market cap, we have to add up all of its use cases to find the total possible market cap.
Total Low Estimates – Market Cap of 118.5 Billion with a token value of $118.5
Total Medium Estimates - Market Cap of 980 Billion with a token value of $981
Total Moon Estimates - Market Cap of 20 Trillion with a token value of $20,000
*caveats:
1) I am assuming that Chainlink will have a monopoly over the blockchain data services. With its first mover advantage, and the implications of the network effect, I believe this to be a reasonable assumption.
2) For token valuation, I am assuming the full 1 Billion tokens are in circulation. The timeline for the release of the remaining tokens is unknown. Seeing that we are calculating the final valuation of the Link token, it only makes sense to use the full 1 Billion tokens that will be released. If you wish to use the current circulating supply of 350 million, simply multiply the token values above by 2.86.
Ryan Ortiz
but link is a meme though
sergay is literally a homeless 5'ft manlet with 1 shirt and a philosophy major
Robert Garcia
reddit spacing
Luis Torres
dont tell them user
Ayden Morales
this, that is all you need to know
and jesus, link 20k ... literally ever ... really? who paid for this shill
Owen Flores
No point to even try user. Go look at old btc threads from 8 years ago. Go look at ETH threads two years ago.
There is nothing to compare Chainlink against. The only real question is if Chainlink gets real use or not. If it does having any amount of Chainlink will make you rich as fuck. If it doesn't you lost it all. How much you risk is dependent on how much you believe Chainlink will be used.
Justin Harris
Focus on the API market specs. This is the largest driving point in the near future, and will be much more explosive than you've estimated.
Ian Walker
BASED AND REDPILLED
Levi Roberts
we can compare sergay to his former projects though and look at his trackrecord to judge the CEO's success
>youtube.com
look at his linked in. all projects he started, never completed, and exit scammed on.
Mason Barnes
Can I ask you a personal question? What brought you to biz?
Jeremiah Gutierrez
Chainlink is love. Chainlink is life.
Samuel Hernandez
i appreciate your straight fowardness. honestly though more than 70% of people on here dont deserve to know
Jordan Richardson
link is shit. Check em
Adam Gomez
Jordan Allen
i'm not selling till 20k.
Anthony Wright
my fucking dice never came, that faggot scammed me
Juan Morgan
Why would you assume the full 1 billion token in circulation? Most of the supply should be staked in nodes
Sebastian Morales
I ran similar numbers before investing in Bitcoin. It’s useful to see what potential an investment asset has. When an investment is still highly profitable at 1% of its potential, I find that to be a good indicator.
Andrew Bennett
For this specific post? Or just in general?
Ethan Evans
Realistic estimate chainlink token 0.30 usd 2025
Cameron Phillips
The “Staked” Link would be covered in the penalty payments section. I find the term “Staked” a little misleading, as it infers that you simply have to leave it alone and profit, when that is not at all how the system works. It is required for penalty payments, and can be lost if data is not properly provided.
That said, “Circulation” might not be the best terminology on my part, as you are right, the deposits for penalty payments will be locked away dependent on a contracts length, and would not be in circulation for that duration. That said, the numbers do include the tokens that will be locked via contracts. Sorry for the confusion!
By my estimates above, 39% to 63% of all Link tokens will be locked away for penalty payments.
Dylan Wilson
If only there was a way for you to initiate payment once the goods have been received, possibly through some sort of API
Jaxson King
That's actually something I'm concerned about, if I run a LINK node and for some reason the data I provide isn't good at any point, I would lose all the collateral I have provided. Really scary, in that case I feel like I'd need some kind of insurance in case that were to happen
Julian Reyes
timeframe?
Ethan Martin
>ddos a rest api so it returns a 500 error
>???
>profit
Joseph Wilson
That’s the million dollar question. I’m not sure anyone can reasonably estimate it
Jose Bailey
The concept of Staking with Link is oversold. It is either misunderstood, or blatant lies / shilling. I don’t see it as something an average investor will be doing on their own. One would need a high level of technical competence to not lose all their link in the process. This is a good thing, if Chainlink nodes were all run by hobbyists and prone to failure, this would negatively impact the network. We need the network to be as stable as possible, with backup servers that have full uptime and redundancy.
Let’s assume for a moment that you are technically capable to set this all up. Exactly what data are you going to be providing to the network? Its not like any of us have relevant data that people are going to want to use for contracts, systems or apps.
I do see a niche for monetizing publicly available APIs early on before the companies themselves offer their services on the Chainlink network directly. If a node can build up enough reputation with these public APIs early on, its possible they might be able to stick around long term as a trusted source. After companies have their own APIs directly on the network, our only use would be as a caching server to offer redundancy incase the primary source goes down. I assume this would not pay nearly as well as the primary data provider, of which we would also be paying to access their data in the first place.
If you’re not technical, and even if you are, the best option is likely going to be using a service like Link Pool, or one of its competitors that is surely going to pop up. These guys will do all the hard work for you, and make sure to offer meaningful APIs. Hopefully they will insure you against loss as well. After they take their cut, I would be surprised if you would make more than 6% return using them.
That’s my 2c atleast
Blake Gray
I ran the numbers on bitcoin achieving 1% of gold's market cap, and that was enough for me to put every cent my impoverished ass could muster, $150, into BTC at $10.
now I choose to do the same for LINK, and this time I have $140k of it.
my faith in my own judgement has grown considerably.
Brandon Young
James Allen
There is no reason that high value data will be hard to access. More nodes offering data from an api means more security. More nodes accessing an api means the source gets to collect more fees for api calls.
Nathaniel Lewis
Absolutely, I think we are in agreement!
I imagine like mining, secondary data feed profitability will trend towards zero. Anyone will be able to create another node offering it, until its profitability is no longer worth doing so. As such secondary data feeds will not nearly be as profitable as primary sources that the secondary feeds pull their data from.
All of this is good for the network itself.
Levi Harris
pee pee poo poo
Jordan Parker
I also think that return on LINK deposits will equalise to near risk-adjusted cost of capital plus relatively minor margins on infrastructure costs. the relevant question is what market capitalisation will be supported, and by extension, what kinds of jobs will require which degree of collateralisation.
are there high value adverserial contracts that cannot be devolved to trusted hardware? I tend to think so. are they still economical when required to pay the cost of capital of the required collaterisation? a smaller set, but I think also yes.
Dylan Martin
Nice, saved. This thread reeks of win.
Sebastian Baker
retarded nigger faggot
Hudson King
What a story, lad. I didn't put time and money into Bitcoin because I've had no use for it. Until a few years ago I've always thought the the train left for serious gains left anyway and I didn't know about Ethereum until last year. I'm far from putting as much as money into LINK as you but it's still worth trying.
Jose Diaz
nice
Christian Smith
checked
Brayden Morales
kek can you imagine
Jordan Robinson
$2500 eoy
Julian Rivera
Nice FUD OP, but we're hitting $100k easily.
Chase Bell
Surprisingly good non shipl link thread. Is it because the amerimutts are sleeping? Quality thoughts OP
Ayden Howard
These nodes are required to have a certain amount of Chainlinks token (Link) reserved to insures the integrity of the data. In the case that the Chainlink node returns bad data, the node is required to pay this reserve as a penalty payment to the contract owner.
Who decides that the node returns bas data ?
And, how can you configure this penalty amount of your node ?
Leo Phillips
you are a delusion bag holder. last person to try and make rational valuations.
Aaron Perry
>7 post in a row
Them heavy bags
Ethan Walker
So I guess all brainlet linklets can just use Link pool right, less of a chance to lose collateral
Jose Reyes
municipal marmalade
Alexander Cooper
that's not what thomas says at all though. he has repeatedly said the goal is to make it easy enough that anyone can run a node successfully.
William Morgan
i hope. fuck linkpool
Leo Roberts
+1
Levi Hernandez
>Chainlink allows companies to directly monetize their data sources, which will spur these services into the stratosphere
no, link only makes sense as a middleman to noncooperating apis.
If I can sign my own api there's zero reason to use link.
This is the single worst mistake you make, not realizing that link is at best a temporary solution to a temporary problem.
>It is entirely possible Chainlink becomes the preferred smart contract platform, with existing chains simply becoming settlement layers
what the fuck? I can't remember the last time I read something so disconnected from reality.
Meanwhile in reality, link broke all promises from the whitepaper and is going to release a literal json parser, with all hard parts stuffed onto 'third party' especially reputation. Link was supposed to be that 'third party' the whole time and that's where the value was supposed to come from.
It's like somebody promised to make a car that runs on water and then produced a nice looking car with no engine, saying it's good because it means customers can choose whatever water engine they want from third party providers. Yet company's shareholders rather than selling happily calculate how rich they are going to be once everyone on earth is using the company's cars.
Thomas Reyes
why not both? Using it on the test net if great, super simple and nice looking. I'll probably do both to spread the risk around, as well as any other staking services should they launch. The guy who runs Stake.io contributed to the ruby node a lot, so i think it's very likely they will support chainlink in the future.
Christopher Brown
Linkpool only will give you profit, the 25% fee might seem like a lot but it also covers potential penalties for all involved, so even if a node fucks up you'll never lose a single link, unless something goes terribly wrong, the funds should be safu.
Aiden Moore
>39 to 63
Lol, pulling numbers out your ass here
Leo Harris
All of your faggotcoins are worth nothing. The higher ups in this world are just using your computer power for their own ends. Eventually they will not need them. And if they need extra computer power "they'll" just launch some new shell/pseudo company with a literal picture of a pyramid scheme and you'll all jump on it. Eventually with quantum computers they won't need you but they'll probably still fuck you because you'll let them. Stop throwing your fucking life away. Invest in silver and gold before the reset.
Wyatt Wilson
>eventually we'll live in space
>buy sticks and stones
Dominic Stewart
no thanks gold queer. nobody wants your shiny rocks
Ian Thompson
Well my investment isn't going anywhere but up. Yours will be nothing.
You're just gambling addicts. I'm a businessman.
Kayden Barnes
>I'm a business man
Caleb Phillips
Wrong, only Credit Default Swaps are at 12 trillion, total Size of all Derivatives is at around 600/700 trillion (technically all of them could work much better through smart contracts no matter if exchange or OTC traded).
Juan Gutierrez
Ripe
Hudson Jones
Bunch of 4channers tried to force it as /ourcoin/, during the presale ico phase of chainlink there was a minimum requirement of 300eth to enter the presale. Bunch of anons pooled up together and shared presale links to fill them with their eth.
Coin continued to get shilled and pumped up and hyped for the sibios event that link was attended, whole event turned out to be a flop chainlink had a presentation in a room of like 18 people next to the public toilets, literally no news or partnership came from the event and the coin dumped back to below ico prices and created 1000's of bagholder anons.
Now during this alt bull run lots of anons and took advantage of this and shilling this coin to all the new money and newfags that joined in december and don't know this story.
The coin is HEAVILY manipulated and the supply is dried up from huge whales who accumulated below ICO price to create a artificially lower supply (a lot like REQ) and these people have so much room to dump on all of you faggots to still be in profit when the time comes.
In regards to actual project that chainlink aiming to achieve it's nothing more than a basic json parser for smart contracts, would take like a day to add to ethereum by itself.. literally making links whole concept pointless and definitely no need for a token. Would take a lot longer to get it working with bitcoin but the bitcoin core devs would be able to work out the solution a lot quicker than chainlink will, think that's something worth noting that literally nothing is completed and you're literally just buying a whitepaper, they have only 2 developers and they don't communicate at all with no proven background on either, in fact sergey was involved in a project before chainlink called NxT that he since been abandoned until it was took over by a new developer team
Xavier Cooper
...businessman is a word. Correcting grammar and spelling is cringey enough but you fucked it up. Anyways I'm done teaching you fucking water bottle throwing, fidget spinner buying hodl-to-zero fuckers. Go enjoy your instant gratification on candy crush.
Kevin Garcia
>teaching me
Dylan Russell
Parker Lewis
Tired, and played out
Cooper Lewis
I imagine in aggregation if one Oracle returns anomalous data or no data when requested, it will be penalised
Aaron Garcia
I've got some candy for you, tramp.
Alexander Campbell
what happens if you ddos a rest api used in a contract temporarily, so one will respond another wont?
Lincoln Carter
Bumped for read this novel later
Carson Sanders
Fuck off you worthless piece of shit. You fucking low IQ subhuman. That is probably the only halfway intellectual post in this thread and you're already barking and pissing yourself at it like a retarded little dog because you are incapable of mustering the required intellect to even begin to understand the complexity and depth of that post. Kill yourself.
Brandon Collins
This needs to be talked about more. What if you are providing API data from something like Bloomberg and it gets fucked up the day it needs to be pulled for your contract? Then what? I lose all my collateralized LINK because Bloomberg shit the bed that day?
Juan Carter
Yes you lose all the collateral that was assigned to jobs that require bloomberg data.
Evan Nelson
is this real life? is this really happening? would this actually happen?
Jack Walker
Won't it be if the node returns data that is "x" amount too far removed from the median value of all nodes that return data, it is deemed as bad?
Easton Mitchell
Gay
Liam Garcia
How does it make sense for them to make a reputation system? Not only does it become centralized, but you are a retard if you don't realize that different sectors of business will value certain qualities in nodes differently.
Michael Lopez
Possibly, but couldn’t you aggregate data from other sources to cover not getting data from Bloomberg?
Jaxon Nelson
Hence the need for more data sources and any contract with a penalty escrow to require more than one data source
Brandon Foster
>How does it make sense for them to make a reputation system? Not only does it become centralized,
Dude, you don't know what you're talking about Reputation was supposed to work on-chain with random nodes selection, none of that off chain 3rd party rep providers BS with a list of nodes to choose from. May as well call it oracles market place then not a decentralized oracles network.
> but you are a retard if you don't realize that different sectors of business will value certain qualities in nodes differently.
you don't evne know the difference between consensus mechanism and reputation and you have the audacity to call someone a retard?
well I assume the contract creator requested specific API, but even if not I don't know if the node itself will be advanced enough to switch API in case the prefered one failed.
Nolan Sanchez
Yes.
Noah Bailey
Lol. Gold. -4.25% in the last 5 years. Seriously KYS.
Hudson Young
you can manually choose the nodes you request from silly
even if there was only 1 reputation contract allowed on chain, someone/some industry could keep their own records of reputation based on their own formula and use that to manually select the nodes they request from
Ian Green
wow so witty and funny, now tell me how does one deter scamming in your hypothetical example?
linkies too stinky
Jayden Allen
>Dude, you don't know what you're talking about Reputation was supposed to work on-chain with random nodes selection, none of that off chain 3rd party rep providers BS with a list of nodes to choose from. May as well call it oracles market place then not a decentralized oracles network.
There's some truth to this but it makes more sense with the approach now because I think they have an idea of the type of large, quality businesses that will be running nodes. You'll be able to pick your level of decentralization. Banks to banks won't want to trust some NEET in his mom's basement and that's what complete random node selection enables. No serious big financial player will go for that.
>you don't evne know the difference between consensus mechanism and reputation and you have the audacity to call someone a retard?
Not sure what you are getting at here. How consensus is agreed upon is one thing. Reputation is another thing. Consensus can be universally recognized, but reputation can be stretched in different directions. How could a node have just one relevant reputation score that serves both the financial market and law? Especially when that node can host several different APIs...
Noah Howard
Yeah I agree with you and this is why they are leaving reputation up to 3rd parties.
Robert Stewart
20k?
a single token?
im a link marine but that's preposterous.
Juan Howard
How much LINK do you hold?
Kayden Howard
>How could a node have just one relevant reputation score that serves both the financial market and law? Especially when that node can host several different APIs...
and what do you think is reputation? it's a mix of uptime, answer correctness, average answer time an things like that, who cares what industry it is?
Someone here came up with this stupid idea of different reputation contracts for different industries and everyone's repeating it like a brainlet without even thinking about it for a second.
The only thing that would make sense in terms of different industries needs, is the consensus mechanism or answer aggregation mechanism whatever you want to call it, different parameters are important for different needs
they themselves still need to write the reputation contract (uptime, correctness, average reponse time, amount of link, whatever) on chain and create a listing service to bootstrap the network.
People keep repeating this "hurr durrrr 3rd parties, mainnet next week" BS, but they are finishing service agreements now, then reputation, then the listing service, whether and how fast are other reputation providers gonna come out that's another story
Jacob Stewart
20k timeline?
noice.
Jack Cruz
so 200k per token?
Sebastian Green
>The only thing that would make sense in terms of different industries needs, is the consensus mechanism or answer aggregation mechanism whatever you want to call it, different parameters are important for different needs.
Dude. This is why different industries need separate reputation scores. You just answered it yourself.
>"hurr durrrr 3rd parties, mainnet next week" BS, but they are finishing service agreements now, then reputation, then the listing service, whether and how fast are other reputation providers gonna come out that's another story
I agree. I don't think we are really that close to mainnet yet. There's a lot to be done. We haven't heard a peep from these supposed 3rd party reputation providers anyway. There hasn't been ANYONE that has come out and said they are planning on working on that aspect of things.
Liam Smith
It doesn't matter what industry or purpose you use it for, you will always be working in strings, numbers, or booleans. You can adjust the rigor of the consensus, but the actual content of what's being processed doesn't matter. Context shouldn't matter.
Evan Martin
>Dude. This is why different industries need separate reputation scores. You just answered it yourself.
that doesn't make any sense. I already told you what reputation will consist of, it's even in the whitepaper as far as I remember, uptime, corectness, link amount etc, how would that need to be any different based on industry? even in 1 industry some customers could value some things more than others and that's why they will probably be able to sort the nodes by different parameters but the reputation contract itself stays the same. Those parameters for reputation will be the same in every node listing service since they all pull that data from the on-chain reputation contract