Safe stocks

Hi, in pic related, CAPE(Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings)(Today's stock price / 10 year average of yearly Earnings Per Share) has a strong correlation to losses that occur at maximum and on average.

The three year average MAXIMUM drawdown was 5.7%, i.e the averaged out worst case scenarios of these stocks with 0-10 CAPE ratios.

This MAXIMUM loss could also be minimised, to neutral numbers over a rolling period by ensuring:
>Earnings are not Pro-Forma
>Stock does not operate in an extremely risky sector(i.e Banks from 2005-2010, tech stocks in 1994-2003, Leveraged, low ROE stocks today)
>Stock is paying out no more than 75-80% of its earnings. The lower the safer, while still paying dividends is a MUST.

There you go anons, this is how wealthy people do it: They refinance a house mortgage between 3-5%, double gear with a margin loan & invest in true bluechip, value stocks. This provides anywhere from 2, to 5x, maximum 20x leverage.

Japan/Denmark(0/negative interest rate countries) have median CAPE ratios of 38 & 24 respectively, whereas more normal countries like Australia have a median CAPE of about 17.
(Numbers from roughly 1980 to 2015)
>As interest rates approach/go below zero, money becomes multiples cheaper in a hyperbola; Money comes closer to being truly free.

Most governments will have, on a 5 year plus horizon, interest rates approaching zero or going negative. This means median stock prices will be skyrocketing as the CAPE ratios go from say 20 to 40(The share doubles in price).

Invest anons, don't speculate, make a good life for your kids and family, start a trust to hold your investments and distribute across family. Show people responsible money and they won't feel trapped.

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Is the X axis years?

How hard is it to label axes?

I believe the x-axis is CAPE.

I see, makes sense now.

Yes CAPE is x axis :)
(OP)

>Most governments will have, on a 5 year plus horizon, interest rates approaching zero or going negative.
How so? They are just starting to go up again?

So you are saying we should only invest in markets like Australia?

Yield curve inversion in US by 2020.
Gives at max til about 2022 for recession to kick in, interest rates will be at the floor for bonds as QE goes on indefinitely(Print money and buy it at zero cost = true monopoly).

However it is of my opinion that stagflation is the 2020-2024 era for the US, which in my mind is justifiably a recession, albeit not technically.

China is a far better investment, their tax is based on state-ownership of public companies, in my opinion, with huge room for a fourfold increase in the money supply, if need be. See Ag bank of china's recentish private placement for an example.

Resource stocks, and China seem to be the go going forward, minus good value stocks (see JHG, AOG, CCP, SFR on the asx).

So best places to invest rn:
1. China
2. Aus ?

Where do you look up the CAPE ratios on the countries?

I hate that really good threads like this almost never get any attention on this worthless board

australia is literally a country of shitcunt con artists right from the government level.

despite the false appearances, this is a country that has not moved beyond digging shit out of the ground and giving it to china for money. investing in australia is about as stupid as buying a holden

China, but Australia has some good value stocks as I listed. The country itself is extremely unproductive besides exports.
CAPE graphs of the major indexes are available by googling, or you can do it manually and go to stockopedia and go PE rolling 10 year, etc.
Yes, yes it is. Value capture model, govt revenue increasing 2x """inflation""", cost clawback with spending... It's disgusting. Holden wasn't too bad in terms of producing what we need, and when the cops buy their beamers and GM stuff, I'm gonna have some big fucking rants. What city are you from?

This.

As long as you follow “Zero Hour”, invest in BHP and GLD. Former for a proxy play in a demographically strong India (beyond 2019 election) not a collapsing China.

Plus, any stocks with solid MOATs with durability (consistent high ROCE for last 10 years or more) is a good investment, as dust settles after impending stock market crash.

>SFR AOG CCP JHG
>Pull all funds from westpac, nab
>Be prepared for a mortgage "sweep"

You'll be alright when the monetary supply doubles in 3 years under shorten. When the USD strengthens and gold outbreaks.
Remember the gxy shilling days from 3 years ago anons?

melbourne, unfortunately. 'the most livable city' what a fucking joke.

great place to be if you're a hipster faggot whose life revolves around being a basedboy and giving the nanny state all your money.

this country is literally the definition of a scam

Feels. Went down near tarneit for work start of the year, fuck mate you guys got the shit boaties. Dads in melb for work every 2nd week and likes the leftie lifestyle. I personally want to go to brissy asap, im in a rich white area of sydney for now but too many carpenters around, lots of houses will be on the market next year. You in a unit or house?

Airlie beach here, shit gets more suspect the further you go north, trust me

Fuck mate. 2.5M median here and 3 at the peak start of last year, i'm an apprentice and can no fucking way fathom putting that amount into a badly returning residence. 96+% white here but ffs I'm sick to death of the cold ass fucking weather.
That moment you realise Jow Forums are the autistic witches of the middle ages who want peace and their own space...

I work in real estate investment up here, shits way better than Sydney. Cheap but potential for capital gains is limited.

2m gets you 6 bedrooms and a tennis court and pool in paradise on 160acres

Hows the market compared to a year and 2 years ago? Are you a buyers agency?

Buyers market at the moment compared to a couple years ago.

Regular agency - I do a lot of work with buyers. On the side of “wealth creation” I do a decent amount of project sales for devs

Got a duplex with decent yield listed at the moment though, listing fell into my lap. Working on good investor product in dev with gross rental yields of up to 9%

You bearish on the market? Predictions? Peak to trough price prediction? And a 9% yield isn't bad at all.. Yields in my pocket of the suburn sit at less than 2%...

Bullish from here - long term gonna go up, Airlie is surrounded by national park so all devolpoment options are known and quantifiable. Market tends to run when capital cities down south cool.

If you haven’t been here before you would be surprised by the amount of money invested in the area. Literally had 2 bil invested after cyclone, it’s like Byron if Byron had 3 marinas of bullshit expensive boats and a world class tourist attraction. And the backpackers are bonus

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Market looks cheap enough that it provides good value. You crack about 150-200 a year i suppose?

Is that your view? Looks a lovely place to live...

Something like that senpai.
Family owns a real estate and is invested in 80% of devolpments here plus more in major cities.

Flying to gold coast next week for work, get into real estate

Holiday house worth about 350k in town 30km for Airlie. Hydeaway bay
Went there for the weekend recently

Im a 1st year sparkie, changing to uni this week. Offered plenty of jobs as sales from local agents when i worked the checkouts at woolies, just numbers are my thing. Off to bed though user, all the best with your ventures. Cheers for some good convo.

Thanks, best thread I’ve seen here in awhile btw mate. And that’s fair enough about numbers, I’m actually a social worker the study lends it self well to sales though. Investment side took more study

Be sure to check out Airlie sometime

who /melbourne/ here