Australias Property Bubble Bursting

Clearance rates worst in a generation: twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1053562178626678784?s=20

Only in 3 other extreme events have clearance rates been in the 30s in Sydney: twitter.com/LouiChristopher/status/1053585757351231488 (they'll be revised down to ~38% once the full results come in) - Oct/Nov 2008 (GFC), May 2004 (NSW vendor stamp duty) and July 1989 when the cash rate hit 17%. Sydney buyers are responding with the same recluctance to buy as during the worst recession in our generation, the highest new purchase tax in our generation, and the highest interest rates in the boomers generation.

Clearance rates have a direct correlation with price change, as clearance rates drop so does prices. This Sydney chart needs updating edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2017/11/oliver-1.jpg but this Melbourne chart is upto date twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1053563743374794752

All these new buyers on IO only loans will rollover causing spending to reduce in the economy rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-ag-2018-04-24-graph4.gif and investors being forced to sell as they cant afford the now 40% increase in repayments. They are new buyers and won't have made a profit, thousands of sellers making a loss, completely eroding whatevers left of positive sentiment.

Not surprisingly buyer sentiment is lower than during the GFC: theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/10/house-prices-set-to-continue-to-fall-for-another-two-years-survey-says

42% of NSW mortgage owners will be in negative equity once prices fall by 20%, which is only 1-2 years away after falling 7% this year: afr.com/content/dam/images/h/1/6/v/f/7/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1539928703734.png

Attached: 1534095303653.png (275x183, 112K)

Other urls found in this thread:

d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-interest-rate.png?s=fdtr&v=201809261820x
reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-raises-u-s-interest-rates-sees-at-least-three-more-years-of-growth-idUSKCN1M60EE
sMh.com.au/money/borrowing/rapid-rise-in-retirees-with-mortgage-debt-20181018-p50aea.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
youtube.com/watch?v=XiUONOfs0hI
cecaust.com.au/releases/2018_02_16_Govt_APRA.html
ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/senate-passes-e2-80-98bail-in-e2-80-99-law-e2-80-93-how-safe-is-your-cash-now-/tabid/88/a/1722/default.aspx
afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/nab-overhauls-controversial-introducer-program-20181019-h16us7
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/chinese-real-estate-deals-drop-in-u-s-as-regulators-clamp-down
realestate.com.au/invest/unit-in-campsie, nsw 2194
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

US Fed is raising rates and the BBSW increases for Australian banks who pass on the interest rate rise to Australian mortgages: d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-interest-rate.png?s=fdtr&v=201809261820x

The Fed is expected to raise rates in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020. reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-raises-u-s-interest-rates-sees-at-least-three-more-years-of-growth-idUSKCN1M60EE

Attached: 1537722324235.png (1000x562, 1.2M)

So when do I buy cheap Aussie flats?

Real estate will only have brief flash crashes, when they quickly buy the dip.
It is easier to print 500k paper dollaroos than building a house is.

Start looking in 2020 before us fed reduces rates

Attached: 1510601356187.jpg (499x499, 26K)

Political instability at the federal level orrleates with decreasing consumer sentiment

Attached: 1520869331062.jpg (640x480, 37K)

you've clearly put a lot of work into this post ok, but I'm too stupid to understand what any of this means as a bogan Australian.

*hits bong*
*eats mcmuffins*

>the political world in 2019
I wonder if we will get to see another GFC anytime soon?

Yes we will

Attached: 1527991498489.png (829x508, 45K)

>*hits bong*
>*eats mcmuffins*

god i wish that were me