What exactly caused the great depression and could it happen again?

this. the fed mathematically creates bubbles and causes crashes whenever they feel like it.

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the only thing I'm not sure of is whether they do it knowingly, out of keynesian dumbness, or because of political pressure.

It's already happening.
>trade wars w/ Canada, Mexico, China, Europe
>massive soup lines (EBT)
>global militarization on the rise, just take a look at how much orders Lockheed have
>commodity prices rising
>corporate, government, and consumer debt is all high
>lack of productivity growth
>massive federal reserve balance sheet, and little room for rates to drop when shit hits the fan

We're likely going into a double dip deflationary depression, similar to the recession of 1937-38, that followed the Great Depression. Many parallels to be drawn, as I've outlined above. The only difference between the Great Depression and the Great Recession is that the government was quick to act, and deleveraged the economy (levered the Fed/Government).

If you wan't to make it through, put your money into Short-Medium term government bonds yielding above 3% at the moment. Also, physical assets are a good bet. If things get really bad and we have to finance more of our debt externally, we could see something like stagflation. I really wouldn't put more than 30-40% of your money in stocks, literally everyone and their mother is buying ETFs because they are FOMOing the 300%+ gains out of the last recession, although a lot of that was driven by interest rate policy & borrowing, which is cyclical (more income now for less later).

I'd probably have like 30-40% stocks, 5-10% commodities, 5-10% gold, and rest in bonds, with a bias towards short term debt, since the yield curve is pretty flat.

Lot's of debt and a stock market bubble. Yes, it can. It's actually much worse today. Even bigger bubble and even more debt.

Yeah this guy has nice advice and sounds all smart like and shit, but you could also just buy LINK

why don't men dress like this anymore?

jews and yes

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degeneration of values, soul, spirit, the negrofication of america

isn't policy significantly better this time though?
many countries have lowkey already taken deflationary measures I think

Global warming.

hoover intervened in the market and crashed it.

Too many people taking out loans to buy stocks. Then eventually it all fell on them.

Well said, the numbers are ridiculous. Anywhere from 9 to 11 out of 12 hard landings depending on how you measure it where rising interest rate policy has been followed by a recession of some kind. Only soft landing I would say, where they raised rates and the economy did well was 1995.

The FED created the great depression. To understand the great depression you have to study the happy twenties. This is only for high IQ people so good luck.

Well much of the growth of emerging markets in this bull market has been financed by developed market debt (USD) & fueled by cheap commodities. They borrow developed market currency (USD, Euro) because of low perceived interest rates, spend it on commodities (USD is the reserve currency so they usually end up borrowing USD), and open up factories to produce goods (they can compete because lower wages), and export these goods back to developed markets and their citizens.

Normally this wouldn't be a problem, but since we are literally lifting these countries out of poverty and they depend on inflows of foreign capital (USD), a large percentage of economic activity is financed by USD and they are usually pretty leveraged in general. The problems show up when the USD deflates. Since they have to pay back their debts in USD, and a large portion of their revenues are in their local currencies, inflation of their currency or deflation of the USD causes a lot of problems. As investors pull money out of emerging markets, they sell the emerging market's currency, and move into USD so the problems get even worse. The local population feeling the wealth effect from foreign inflows, has probably overspent during that golden period, and when domestic inflation causes their purchasing power to decrease, the companies suffer even further, and foreign debt piles up.

Worst offenders are probably Turkey, Argentina, and even countries like India to a certain extent.

Just read Ray Dalio's new book to get a high level overview. He describes the circumstances surrounding the Great Depression very well it's easy to understand if you have basic economic knowledge/terminology. The book is free on his website, principles.com

It's called: A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises. Pretty much covers every relevant recession in the last century.

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based schizophrenic

thanks user, very informative post

Jews, yes

it will happen again in about 10 years

is there anyone worst than boomers

it was because the current leading crypto was turned into a "store of value" not meant to be used to buy stuff. let's not let it happen again.

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How hard a common man with no debt/savings and with basic set of skills (so he can get a job) will suffer from this? What industry will lose the most jobs?

Heavy bag holders persuading everyone to invest into a scam like chainlink

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industries which are already marginal from heavy foreign competition (like automobiles) will be hit hardest, tariffs will only make their death slower and more painful

>Fed

all kikery insinuations aside, they just respond to the fluctuations and trends in the economy, stimulating or pulling the brakes on the performance to avoid a bigger dip. Sometimes they lose track of reality and pump record low interest rates and pump virtually free money into the markets via QE and then blame everyone else. Guess that's just a response to the global inequality and century high debts that forces people not to spend so they have to pump it with extreme measures for the economy to limp on instead of letting it die and processes resolving themselves in a less dramatic way

greed
high information asymmetry
diminishing rates of new market participants after public had access to markets for first time and was exhausted
a fall in the money supply putting downward pressure on nominal values
high debt to gdp ~300% combined with deflation due to a drop in the money supply, making loans ever more impossible to repay as they are priced nominally

could it happen again?

maybe my single favorite dynamic playing into the shitstorm of forces that caused the crash and great depression was the Federal Reserve purchasing $1 Billion + of government securities in the early 1930s in an attempt to save the market, which was 2.5x its holdings at that time. basically the Fed printed money to try to save the market, more money than ever before. But this actually caused the money supply to drop by 3 times as much because the public did not trust this move with so much debt already and began hoarding cash (there was no FDIC yet, that came a year later as a "temporary program" much like suspension of gold convertability which can cause similar "problems"), making bankers more averse to lending as they needed deposits to cover their loans (they couldn't immediately flip them to Fannie Mae and Freddie and whoever else because they were still banks, not just a transparent front for the central planners).

banking was initially pretty good. while being prone to localized states of corruption as any human institution is it was basically a decentralized mechanism to price the risky use of capital in human activities in pursuit of a profit for doing so in a positive way. nowadays it's just a big game of make believe, far far detached from anything approximating the informed and decentralized competitive pricing of risk. could it happen again? well, we went even bigger this time but I don't see why not. people being less informed about it than in the olden days is the only reason it hasn't yet

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