To me it is clear crypto is following the standard S-curve with amazing spectacular growth that bubbles up and leads to a new cycle of slightly less amazing growth.
Judged by the explosiveness of adoption (I mainly mean adoption in terms of financial asset) there is still a long way to go. I'd say this bubble lead us from the early adopters phase into early majority phase.
Typical of these cycles is that in every one of them, a logarithmic trendline will be established, the bear market will break that one. It already broke Ethereum, it will break bitcoin. But after that we will rise again. Following prices will be made: Bitcoin 100-120k Litecoin: 1200-1500 Ethereum 30-50k (#1) Cardano: 30-70$ FYP: 1000-3000$ Link: 1000$
Total Mcap: ~12 Trillion (x14 vs x55 last bubble.
After that, deflate and repeat to 50+ trillion and level off competing and over taking current day equity markets.
we're nowhere near early majority. it's just us basket weavers, a bunch of normies looking to get rich and few institutions that are buying OTC so we'll not realize what's the actual demand for BTC
Luis Ward
what kind of relation is there between price and adoption rate?
Sebastian Ward
You are wrong You are right
I am probably one of the few oldfags that have been in crypto since 2013. I was mostly in Litecoin and sold most in december at 300$ Now I went into FYP already with 5% of what I intend to reinvest into crypto since the platform is already experiencing growt. The price isnt and may drop with the rest of crypto because the bear isnt over. Like I said, exponential trends still need to he broken. I dont hold any of the others and have become least positive about the coin I was formerly married to, Litecoin. I hold only Fyp but only recently so not really heavy bags and I intend to invest into the others (link just for the memes) during the coming capitulation.
Take it fwiw.
Ryan Morris
For a financial asset, price is a reflection of the adoption. Price = f(supply,demand) Supply is fixed or predetermined Price = f(demand) Adoption is demand What the function exactly is I cannot tell but its definitely not inversely related ;)
Jaxon Perry
market @ its infancy still at its infancy
Joshua Murphy
I swear to God I live in South Africa and I talked to a random black guy working at a petrol station about Bitcoin and how he bought like $20 worth.
You people are delusional.
Elijah Phillips
What about other products on the market that can fulfill the same need. Both in case of using crypto as payment method and an investment vehicle you have to consider new coins entering the market. They may have better technology for better everyday usage and have greater potential to x100 that coins that already stabilized. Therefore supply is not fixed.
Even if it was, what about the past year? How does this simple price~=f(adoption) model explains that despite crypto gaining more and more momentum price fell down? There must be more factors more important for the price than the adoption.
James Perry
>Typical of these cycles is that in every one of them, a logarithmic trendline will be established, the bear market will break that one.
The past year there was significant less interest than in 2017. Search on google trends for bitcoin, crypto, ethereum. No one is looking into it today.
Eli Edwards
That is making the assumption that every single person will eventually use BTC
Carson Sanders
even if only 5% will have a wallet you are an early adopter
Alexander Davis
Are you taking exchange wallets into account that allocates a person a certain amount of BTC while actually having one wallet before normies withdraw?
Wyatt Morgan
exactly, the line on google trends is interest, adoption would be proportional to area under that line, because once you found out how to buy bitcoin, you don't need to search for it again, price rose due to interest not adoption, maybe x10 gains can only be achieved during the "take-off" phase on OP's picture?
Eli Hill
Well yes it shows interest but it shows only the influx. The outflux is not shown but off course as you can imagine when search interest was 100% the outflux was not enough to push it into net negative territory. At 8-10% it is. So in my view, in the big picture the price will follow the OP pic with temporary overshoots and undershoots. See On a log chart it is clearly turning horizontal, the OP was on a linear chart but on a log chart would be something like picrelated.
