LINK holders - we're gonna make it

If you own more than 1K link you're in the top 20% of link holders (322k people). If you own more than 14k you're in the top 1% (13k people) . We're a relatively small group of people, fellow linkers, and we're all gonna make it.

(1) Take a look at google trends for the keyword "chainlink coin" worldwide for the last 5 years. The area under the curve represents total interest during that period. That number is 1405. (google presents the numbers in such a way that the peak value is 100)

(2) Take a look at google trends for the keyword "bitcoin" vs "chainlink" worldwide for the last 5 years. The area under each curve represents total interest for each keyword during the preiod. All points for "chainlink" are less than one. I will assume the peak for this series is 0.75, just because I find it to be reasonable (it could be any value between 0 and 0.9999999). "Bitcoin" adds up to 2261 for the last 5 years (peak = 100).

(3) The peak for "chainlink" in step (2) is 0.75, while the peak for "chainlink coin" in step (1) is 100 (google trends always normalizes so the peak is 100). Therefore we need to take 1405 and multiply it by (0.01*0.75) to ensure its peak is = 0.75, and therefore both series will be comparable.

(4) The result is that total interest for "bitcoin" during the period is 2261, while the total interest for "chainlink coin" during the period is 10.5375. This means the link/bitcoin ratio is 10.5375/2261 = 0.00466

(5) Take another rough estimation, such as the one I wrote here In that estimation the link/bitcoin ratio is 10.8/76900 = 0.00014044213

(6) Make another quick estimation with normie sources. Such as:

www.reddit.com/r/bitcoin/ has 977347 subs
www.reddit.com/r/linktrader has 9116 subs

The ratio there is 9116/977347 = 0.009327

(7) The average LINK/Bitcoin ratio we get from google, youtube and reddit is:

(0.00466 + 0.000140 + 0.009327) / 3 = 0.014127/3 = 0.004709


... to be continued

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Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle),
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

....

(8) Bitcoin's market cap is approximately 50% of the global crypto market cap. If there was no overlap between coins, and one assumes that on ***average*** people invest a comparable amount of money on crypto, regardless of what crypto one chooses, then it would be fair to say 3% of the population (50% of the 6% that own crypto) own bitcoin. But that's not true...there is overlap between coins, so probably the real number is closer to 4.5% (halfway between 3% and 6% just to make it simple).

(9) Therefore, 0.004709 * 4.5% is a reasonable estimation of the percentage of the world population that owns some chainlink. This is 1,610,478 people.

(10) Using a rough approximation of the 80/20 rule (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle), we can estimate that the richest 20% of LINK holders are 322,000 people who own 0.8*350,000,000 LINK = 280,000,000 LINK. An average of 869 link per holder.

(11) 20% of the richest 20% of LINK holders are 64,400 people, who own 0.8*280M LINK = 224,000,000. This means the average top 4% (20% of 20%) LINK holder owns 224M / 64400 = 3500 LINK.

(12) The top 0.8% (.2*.2*.2) LINK holders are 12880 people, who own a total of 179.2M LINK - an average of 13,913 per person.

(13) I'm not gonna keep going...I think you get the picture. Many of us are BY FAR in the top 1% of LINK holders. We're all gonna make it, and we are definitely innovators/early adopters.

What does “make it” mean?

I'm finally a member of the 0.5% club!

Can you keep going. I don't know what these numbers mean but I like seeing them go higher.

Not having to wagecuck

How do any of these numbers suggest that we’ll make money on ChainLink?

Nice math user, autism at its finest.

>average of 13,913 LINK per person
Whaaat ? Im under average ? Fuck

12k under average linklet here. Hold me frens

We are the champions

My friends

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this is getting almost sad how deluded you stinky linkies are but I do respect the autism

your whole eqaution that you pulled out of your ass can be applied to literally 1000 other ERC 20 shittokens - nothing special here

Not just that, but having some "fuck you" money, too. If you have 2 mil and are responsible you can avoid wagecucking forever, but I'd set actually making it between 4-6 mil.

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lmao this post is such a waste of time cant believe i read all of it, we already know this yes we are gunna make it thanks for backing it up with a bunch of numbers and symbols, would be more useful if you actaully did something useful

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i have 50k link and will need 2.5 mil to become the ultimate neet. so i need 50$ link. i have absolute confidence that this will happen within 2 years.

after a long day of throwing my chicken bones on the sidewalk, i too suffer from an inability to comprehend words.

You still have time

50usd link is 17bn mcap. The amount of shitcoins that got to or past 17bn on hype alone is absurd during January. It's absolutely possible.

right? go build something OP

Only 23551 wallets hold LINK you muppet

thank you. this is brilliant stuff. we're all gonna ake it fren. 1000k eoy

I actually think the idea behind Chainlink isn’t that bad. But the tokenomics of the Chainlink project just do not make it an attractive investment. not only is there too much total supply, but the team still has more than half of them! And even the ones that are out there the distribution is just too uneven to take off! How is this a “decentralised” oracle when 99% of the tokens are held by a few whales? In the future data providers will provide data directly to the blockchain using a reputation based API no need to use Chainlink and give control over all data to a few Chainlink whales + linkpool. The people able to run their own Chainlink full nodes will be a drop in the ocean. That is why The Chainlink team don’t bother doing any marketing it’s because they’re embarrassed. they already know they fucked up with the ICO and short of burning all the whales tokens which will drop the price to 0 there is nothing they can do. I sold all my links at $1 many months ago and I advise you to do the same before the uselessness of Chainlink dawns on everyone else.

ALRIGHT, time to talk about ChainLink's price.

I've been crunching some numbers, researching how much api providers charge right now, looking into Oraclize and other oracle services customer-base and how much are they paying...

And I've came to the conclusion that LINK holders are completely out of their mind. The network just WON'T have nowhere near the fee revenue to justify the price predictions that are thrown around in this board.

If we're LUCKY, we might see a 10MM USD a YEAR at the beginning at the network. It's fucking ridiculous.

Even if we the network eventually gets adopted by a few banks for derivatives trading purposes (which WON'T happen in less than 03 years, you idiots have no idea how far away smart contracts are from being actually usable) it'll be HARD to get over 100 MM usd a YEAR in network fees. Shit just isn't that profitable.

So yeah, LINK is basically overinflated in price because delusional neets bought into the non-sense from a group of LARPERS and didnt actually do any research.

Some of those wallets are exchanges, where several accounts are consolidated into one wallet, you muppet.

thanks fren

>I've been crunching some numbers
where are your fucking numbers then you retard? how much "work" did you put into this? this is a complete joke.

>the team still has more than half of them
No they don't. They're out of supply ready to be paid to node operators.

Btw am I replying to a pasta guy?

Brainlets respond to brainlet pasta.

>mfw the bitcucks are about to get destroyed after FUDing LINK for the past year

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So you claim to know exactly how many people keep all their LINK on exchanges and it's over x10 the people who don't. Kys you larping faggot

>4.5% is a reasonable estimation of the percentage of the world population that owns some chainlink. This is 1,610,478 people.

What?
There's no way this is even remotely close to reality

>They're out of supply
Which means that the team has them.

Never said anything about exactly, don't put words in my mouth. It's a rough estimation, but it's as close as you're gonna get with the data avaliable.

Just to reiterate the fact that the number of wallets has nothing to do with the number of owners:

There are around 30 million bitcoin wallets in the world, yet there are estimations that around 456 million people (6% of the world pop) own some sort of crypto currency.

Does this mean 420 million people own some sort of crypto while owning ZERO bitcooin? come on. It's obvious that the number of wallets has nothing to do with the number of owners.

0.004709 * 4.5% = 0.0211905%

That's because most btc owned by small fries is on exchanges. But I bet most stinkies have the majority of their link offline because we're not normie morons.

Ah I see, my bad user

You sir, are a tremendous faggot who is pulling numbers out of his rectum

Doesn't matter if you are in the top 0,5%, 1% or 20% if you are holding literal bullshit.

CL failing will be the funniest moment in the history of Jow Forums

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you're in insignificant faggot who puts numbers in his rectum.

Stop samefagging

quality post
this kind of research and calculations is what companies are paying 50000$/year net

That may well be the case, and it's a hunch I would agree with...but I can't think how one could transform that hunch into numbers in order to conisder that effect it in the estimations above. I did the best I could user.

So i only need 4k more linkies to get in the elites? Nice

Question: I've only started following ChainLink recently.

The price used to be around 4.5k sats rougly, recently it's spiked up to around 6-8k sats

What has the price been historically? What is considered a 'high' price for it and what was the old normal? I feel like im buying the top right now

Legitimate question: What will happen to this board in link fails?

the "high" is like $1.40, over 10k sats. do you know how to read a chart

binance doesnt go futher back than a year, last year it was at 10k sats, and then dropped like a fucking rock

what happend?

the entire crypto market crashed, newfag

>Not just that, but having some "fuck you" money, too. If you have 2 mil and are responsible you can avoid wagecucking forever, but I'd set actually making it between 4-6 mil.
This.

With 1 mil, I could invest in passive index funds and plan to live off 3% a year, which would be about $30k/yr. That's a good living in many places.

However, I make $250k/yr in Manhattan. To quit my job and maintain my current lifestyle living on 3%, I would need to have about $8.3M.

Fortunately, I have 250k link. If link hits $10, I will have the option of saying fuck it all and leaving NYC to enjoy life somewhere cheap, where I can make stupid videogames forever or some dumb shit and never work again.

If link is stupidly successful, then I can do the above but in a luxury apartment in Manhattan.

How does it feel being in the top 100 holders?

It's exhausting constantly seeing people tout Chainlink as a solution for everything. Chainlink won't be used for PSD2 compliance, there is no evidence suggesting it will be. I'm still waiting for anyone to post evidence of there being vulnerability in any oracles.

Has anyone noticed how Chainlink is only partnered with "Academic" endeavors like OpenLaw and Accord (aside from a proof of concept). Do you really think a bunch of multibillion dollar tech companies wouldn't be chomping at the bit to get this tech? Do you really think they wouldn't have horded tokens long ago if this platform was SO necessary and needed?

Link's best chance is having a pump somehow like Ethereum did. But Ethereum only has pumped because of idiots buying cryptocurrencies that don't understand them. Chainlink only has any value because of idiots buying that don't understand smart contracts and oracles.

>The area under the curve
>The area under each curve
what are you on about

You make some good points user however you forget one important fact. Think back to when Chainlink started attending conferences around the October run up of last year. Do you recall the keynote speech that was given by Sergey?

Bump to read the novel later

In general, if you have a curve showing "something" over time, the area under the curve represents the total "something" over the given period.

In this case, each curve shows interest for a particular topic over time, so the area under each curve represents total interest for that topic for the given period.

I looked at two google trends graphs:

a) "chainlink" vs "bitcoin", worldwide, for 5 years.
b) "chainlink coin", worldwide, for 5 years.


In the first graph, the chainlink interest curve is reported as "

Laughed at this but also realized I'm a LINK holder and can't help but hope these autists are correct.

Advice to you, user: buy a relatively cheap apartment you're happy with in Manhattan bc that shit will be under water in your lifetime. Buy a super nice house or apt in a non-coastal city you're excited about as well for when that happens in about 20-30 years.

Unironically this. The whole crypto and LINK have made people to lose their mind and rationality and deluded day dreaming about lamboland

Gas yourself idiots. Nobody wants your shit ERC token.

Can you just make your point for the rest of us?

Cursed trips

lmao people we're saying this in the 90's
never going to happen in our lifetime

I could but I spent hours watching the old videos to fully understand this project. It would be a disservice to relay this info while it's already out in the open albeit not picked up on as much on this message board.

Nice english pajeet

That’s fair I guess? But I mean, I’ve watched them too. My guess for why insiders don’t seem to have gone hog wild is because Sergey hasn’t even really shilled the potential value of the token to the people he’s spoken to. He’s instead presented it as a solution and made deals with them to get some number of tokens from him directly.

That's Adelyns job. Sergey is the face of the project.

There are only about 22,000 addresses that own link tokens. How can there be over a million people who own chainlink.

I only own 400 LINK

That is tiger moms job and if you think 'insiders' dont know than idk what to tell you man, i guess youre the smartest one in this game huh?

i own 1700 linkies . should i buy more ? iam planning to buy a tesla

>Being mysterious
It's the toilet faggot.
Just admit it.

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stupid fucking normie go back to plebbit

Top 750 here.

Collective autism will save us

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Nah, not smartest- luckiest. I guess I’m still in the dark on your answer that sparked this. Time to rewatch old vids I guess.

I can't believe How stupid the OP is... at first your like wow this poster is pretty brilliant with all the math. But once he said over 1 million people own link I laughed. I have like a 90 IQ and basic fucking common sense will tell you there's no where near 1 million individual holders.


Jesus Christ op you are fucking stupid

The jerk store called. They're running out of you!

I'd like to know where he got that number as well.

No, not smartest. Luckiest. I still don’t know what the user up thread was hinting at but I guess it’s time to rewatch the old vids.

Like I said above........ you people are unironically very stupid. As soon as he said there were a million Link holders I laughed out loud and I'm borderline retarded.

You fucking morons don't have a lick of common sense if you think over 1 million people own chainlink.

Also I had no clue how many actual wallets there were and I still laughed at the fact that OP said there were over 1 million link holders.

Damn, walking in the rain. Thought that hadn’t gotten posted.

Like 70% of the world is fucking Muslim spic and black. Out of that 5 billion people you might have like literally 600 link holders.

Figure the white world is about 2 billion people. Your telling me 1 out of every 1,800 people own some chainlink? Cuz that's what it would basically take to have a million link holders.

I would bet my left testicle that when I go to the bears game this week.... if I could ask all 70,000 fans if they own any chainlink that nobody would own it.

Take a city like chicago with 7 million people.... how many do you think own link? I'd guess at most 50 people own link .

So according to your math 50/7,000,000 is a good approximation for the amount of people that own link, at least in the "white world" (around 2bn people) + only a few rest of the world link holders.

So we would have a total of (50/7,000,000)*2bn + 600 = 14285+600 = 14885. Let's round up to 15,000 people holding link.

This would mean the average link holder owns 23k LINK, which right now is about 11k USD.

Using a rough 80/20 distribution, this would mean the bottom 80% of link holders are 12,000 people, who own 70,000,000 LINK overall. Then the average bottom 80% holder has 5800 LINK, while the average top 20% holder (3,000 people) has an average of 93k LINK .

This would also imply that the ****average**** amount of wallets per user is greater than one (not less than one, like one would assume given the existance of massive exchanges).

I'm not saying it isn't possible, it just seems unlikely to me.

Most link holders are in Brisbane, Australia.

BRISVEGAS YEEEWWWW SCARNON CUNCE

>this post brought to you by Logan gang

This, people in this place are stupid as fuck. There are only 20k wallets.

nice try satan

industry token. banking cartel have their fingers all over this. 1000$ EOY confirmed

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OY DAMO M8, WEN U GET UR CENTALINK PAYMNT MATE, BUY DIS THING CALLED CHAINLINK EYYYY.

CIGGY BUTT BRAIN

JUST TELL US THE 2019 EOY PRICE

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Yes this makes much more sense I mean.... literally who else is accumulating link in the 5-15k USD dollar area other than biz?

Take all individual link holders. Just regular people buying Link. What % of those are biz? I'd guess at least 80%? If not almost all.

And I'm sure on avg maybe 1 biz link holder has gotten on average close to 1 other person to invest.

So the 15k amount of people makes a lot of sense who own it

AND I would have considered myself an average holder and after your updated math..... of 23k that makes sense because I have 28k

Stupid idiots like this guy are going to be the real JUSTed people. Not no linkers.

You fucking morons are going to make a few million and through it all into An overinflated stock market propped up by 0% interest rates for a decade and your going to fucking lose it all.

I would sooner take my millions from Link and play blackjack than put it in this sham stock market. At least in blackjack I have a chance of making more. You'll get fucking slaughtered in the illegal central bank fueled market

can you unironically imagine saying putting money on blackjack is a safer investment then the stock market.

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SPRINGWOOD REPRESENT FUCK YEEEAAAAAAAA

He doesn't know about collateral insurance....

23k user
>Stop lying

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Of all the places possible...

Blackjack you at least have A 49% chance of winning. You think there's a higher than 49% chance that the stock market isn't going to get completely fucked?

Yeah everything in the stock market is just going to go up forever and ever.

Fucking nigger

Also.... the Jews and Zionist's control the stock market by way of the central bank. Pumping all sorts of free money and liquidity into it to prop it up

You people are literally so fucking dumb. You have to concept of constitutional economics. You are unironally complete normies.

Quotation: "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.... I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." - Thomas Jefferson

To be honest, I wouldn't trust the average person to wash my car let alone manage finances.