Only in 3 other extreme events have clearance rates been in the 30s in Sydney: twitter.com/LouiChristopher/status/1053585757351231488 (they'll be revised down to ~38% once the full results come in) - Oct/Nov 2008 (GFC), May 2004 (NSW vendor stamp duty) and July 1989 when the cash rate hit 17%. Sydney buyers are responding with the same recluctance to buy as during the worst recession in our generation, the highest new purchase tax in our generation, and the highest interest rates in the boomers generation.
Here's some data from previous bubbles to aid you in approximating what the value of a property today could be worth at the bubbles bottom: i.imgur.com/yX5AXk9.png
Interview here where he debates a property bull with tears in his eyes trying to help people see what was going to happen to the Irish economy: youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0
All these new buyers on Interest Only loans will rollover in 2019/2020/2021, and almost all of them will have made a loss in Syd/Melb, so they'll be in negative equity, and they'll be required to increase repayments by around 40% when going from IO to I+P, on a depreciating asset in a falling market, and lose hundreds of thousands - or they'll sell the property to stop the losses, and they'll be forced to come up with the hundreds of thousands difference between the principle mortgage value (that they didn't pay off) and the sale price of the property. rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-ag-2018-04-24-graph4.gif
youtube.com/watch?v=iwV9bwIkWqw The consequences of the combination of forced sales and IO rollovers who can't afford I+P selling at the same time are outlined here. Notable fact Off-The-Plan buyers who paid years ago for a property worth $X will have the property revalued at settlement by their bank, and the bank will value it lower than when they bought it years ago, and the buyer will need to scrape together the difference between what they purchased for and what the property is now valued at. Basically off the plan buyers are going to be in debt at the time of settlement and most won'y have access to the money to make up the difference - and will have to buy into negative equity, or sell and make a loss before they even got to use the property.
A lot of people don't understand how far their suburb has fallen in value. The price metrics are measuring the year to date, so half the average is built up of sales from over 6 months ago.
When the market turns 30% in 6 months, it goes from 10 to 7, but the measurement still includes all the 10's, making it look like the new average isnt 7, but closer to 8.5.
In another 6 months all these statistics are gonna look fucking insane because they'll all be showing 30% drops, measuring sales between May 2018 and May 2019.
Australian banks are -35% down this year. Looks like they will fall another 30% in the next 6 months if the Chinese economy doesn't recover with a trade deal. December will be red again once people realize there won't be a trade deal on the G20 or any time soon.
Chase Brown
my cba and anz shares got smashed even the little banks like bendigo aaaaaaaaaaaa
Robert Diaz
this is good fuck the greedy fucks that own property as a way to make money, fuck them hard in the ass I wish I was an aussie so I could buy my own house for cheap... just hoping the property bubble explodes in my country soon
Aiden Torres
Whats your go? You post this shit here over and over. Please explain your agenda otherwise you probably should be seeking serious mental health care.
Eli Bailey
Thought I was onto a good thing picking up NAB shares at $29. Well now they're $23. Oh well at least I still have my exorbitant dividend.
Literally, literally, literally, every single thing I shared is sourced objective data.
Why do you hate the truth? Go watch tv
Luis Cox
I got nothing against the truth.
What is your obsession with it though?
By the way, I would like to dedicate all of your truths to Mr Bob "bullshit" Hawke.
Cameron Cruz
I read USA is up 5% yoy, not sure how that stacks against the preceding few years, or how that measures against your inflation. Doesnt really matter now you've got rate rises for the next 2 years due to overheating, it'll drop from 5% to -x%.
Caleb Johnson
>What's your obsession with the biggest investment of your life?
I don't have any idea. Why don't I just make the biggest decision of my life that'll follow me for 30+ years without giving it considerable and constant and informed thought, like you?
Nathaniel Smith
Yeah, I guessed you nailed it on the head.
I only need a house to live in, If it goes up or down I don't care as long as I can pay the payment. Doesn't make my life better or worse if its worth $500K or $1.5M.
But you, well, every percentage point of change either cause you to cum or shit in your pants.
You spill your lunch on your keyboard while pumping this shit.
Yes I can see being uniformed and ignoring the truth is affecting my quality of life.
I envy you, your thirst for knowledge and your desire to spread it like syphilis.
Luis Scott
the thing that most people don't realize is that the tax cut that trump "generously" gave us was a wolf in sheep's clothing. basically essential expenses like housing are rising considerably, to crisis levels. without the tax cut we would be in a crisis, but thanks to the tax cut that crisis was averted because real expenses were offset by the savings.
it won't last long though - yes, housing supply is low and demand is high which will legitimately inflate the prices, bit prices will only continue to rise because non-banks are now providing the loans to make such prices possible since banks (which are averse to risk and must follow OCC regulations) will not make the loans that people need to perpetuate the housing bubble. however, non-banks are conveniently filling that gap which means prices continue to rise. I don't know how long they can keep it all going, but what I'm trying to say is - it's only a matter of time.
Carter Harris
>I only need a house to live in, If it goes up or down I don't care as long as I can pay the payment. Doesn't make my life better or worse if its worth $500K or $1.5M.
My Fren, Opportunity cost is the underlying basis of all economics or more importantly the comparative lack of resources.
But it is what it is. The price of anything is what it is.
Are you pushing for political or social change?
You aren't one of these guys who doesn't know what he wants out of life but is pretty sure he hasn't got it, are you?
Joseph Evans
Are you on meth?
>>I only need a house to live in, If it goes up or down I don't care as long as I can pay the payment. Doesn't make my life better or worse if its worth $500K or $1.5M.
If you buy something for $1.5M today that'll be worth $500K soon, you've lost the opportunity to invest that $1.0M elsewhere.
Do you not understand the loss? Do you not understand the pursuit of profit? Do you not have a profit motive? Do you want to make wealth or lose wealth? I don't care what you think about anything, but you should know you are an idiot, and wrong.
Luis Turner
>huge country >shit ton of space >housing prices are insane i really can't grasp the idea.
Ethan Campbell
you are naive friend. maybe you're lucky and it won't happen to you, but this is what happens when a housing bubble bursts.
>family buys house for $300k >down payment was 5% on an FHA loan (fha loans have a ~9% delinquency rate) which means 95% of the value of the house was backed by the loan (called "LTV" - loan to value) >major recession hits >house now worth $200k >loan is now "underwater" because the loan balance is $285k, and the sell value would be $200k, which means there's an $85k gap that is preventing the home owner from selling >home owners now lose their jobs due to recession >have to pay mortgage on $285k loan for a $200k home >can't pay >foreclosure, bankruptcy, the works >home owners credit ruined, lose their home
we've made the bed, now we're going to lie in it
Ryder Rivera
No Mr Adam Smith. You are wrong. I need a house to live in. One house. If it goes up to $1.5M I am not going to sell it to invest the "newfound gain", for alas, where would I live.
You pencil necked geeks have no idea how the common person lives or see's life.
Being so intelligent must be more of a burden than a benefit I assume.
My god ignorance is bliss. A bliss you never, ever, will be able to experience.
Now, go away boy, you bother me.
Connor Turner
Its a desert with a coastline, and along the cost we have about 5 cities that are hours apart with no railroads between them.
So imagine America but the entire middle of the country is uninhabitable, and the only places you can live are California, New York, and 3 other cities spread out 12 hours from each other by car.
Tyler Jenkins
When this all happens does the ground open up and we can actually see hell fire?
Robert Thomas
>I need a house to live in >Therefore it doesnt matter if it costs $1.5M or $500K because opportunity cost stops existing when I want a house
the absolute state of you
Isaiah Bell
Opportunity cost only starts existing when you are aware of it.
You can't contemplate that 95% of us sheep don't know what the hell it is your talking about.
Do you think it will make us 95% of people more happy knowing about your convoluted theories that may actually play out in practice.
Can you grasp that question?
Asher Perez
it already happened in 2008, we just don't ever learn from our mistakes.
granted 2008 was very different from today - the primary cause back then was fraud. loans were being given out to retards on nothing but stated income and asset amounts, no verification if they were actually credit worthy. the underwriting is somewhat legitimate now, at real banks - I can't speak to non-banks. non-banks will probably be the cause of the next bubble burst most likely. but it's going to be a combination of all the debt bubbles that pushes it over the edge. student, auto, revolving, and housing. we really never learn.
Levi Carter
It is all pretty much irrelevant anyway because within 5 years the Chinese will militarily invade and then what are you going to do with all of your economics degrees.
Your education will be worthless when you are subservient to a communist occupation.
Austin Bennett
>open up Jow Forums >theres no aus/pol/ thread up yet
I am from Sydney, from the Western Suburbs, i recently sold my unit for 750K and put half of it in crypto 25% BTC, 25% ETH, 25% Ripple and the rest 25% i bought shitcoins on tradesatoshi, mostly NIM, TRTL and Garliccoin. i got a Thailand retiree visa for 10k and i am moving there. bye bye Australia
I talk to executives, accounants, chief risk officers, etc. Banks have been planning for a fall for a very long time. Many investors lied about their income- I know of people who have more clients than they can count, that have overstated their income through fraudulent processes & owe the tax office thousands upon thousands of dollars they can't pay- Just to try and get into the property market by overstating their income for serviceability purposes.
There is a floor price of property, determined by interest rates, access to credit, and liquidity in the general finsncial system both inside and outside of our country.
Our government taxes through stamp duty, income tax(on a growing financial, construction and real estate sector), company tax, and capital gains. The US doesn't, and that is why houses are cheap.
If houses and stocks get CGT discount stripped, and interest tax deductability removed, people will move money into bonds, lowering interest rates effectively & allowing the government to spend more, including deficit spending.
Keynesian economics. Learn to use it to your advantage or miss the best opportunity to invest in the mining and property sector in an appropriate time.
Predictions: Peak to trough of 27-33% falls in sydney greater area, 22-26% melbourne, 8% maximum brisbane.
Developable land values will increase greatly when Labor gets in, existing houses will drop in price. Shares will fall in price.
The trend is the government wants it to be tax ineffective for all asset classes for the population, minus government bonds. And in doing so, the government wants to borrow, buy assets, and jack up their price. I can go on for hours. I know how this government works, and I know what people are doing to profit in changing trends.
Brody Thompson
>Developable land values will increase greatly when Labor gets in, existing houses will drop in price. Shares will fall in price.
I think that'll be the case. The media will develop some rule of thumb that the older builds should be worth 5-10% less because they lack NG potential or something, and that'll increase the range of prices (older homes are already -% against new ones, when comparable, so it'll just increase the gap)
That'll be good for young families who just want a home to live in
Josiah Scott
>Developable land values will increase greatly when Labor gets in, existing houses will drop in price. Shares will fall in price. Shares will fall even more? Please no
Joshua Clark
I wish I was on the spectrum so I could predict this shit
Andrew Morales
Shares are still at high PB multiples. Manufacturing shares are overpriced. Bank shares are overpriced (for now). Miners will assumably be strong going forward, there is a good chance interest rates will fall as the next momenent in my opinion.
Agreed- Great chance for anyone young. Honestly hate labor but the plan has been long in the making for them to swoop in and get the 16-35 yr old demographic.
Jace Gomez
Why do you think mining shares would be unaffected?
Samuel Perry
kek
spergs who waste their autism on non-profitable shit are doubly retarded
Oliver Phillips
AUD will continue to shit itself so China will come in to buy cheap commodities that they'll either use or shelf until necessary.
Camden Walker
Unaffected? A rocket will be under their arse, most likely. Falling dollar (aus dropping rates while us raising & huge bond yields bring demand for usd), chinese stimulus going to hit soon (demand for iron already becoming priced in, at 75 usd). Factor that with a falling dollar, and mining sector will be billions more each year in government revenue just from rio and bhp. Fewer will be buying the good news as their margin loans arent tax deductible and cgt discount is piss all, so gains wouldn't be as good as a few years ago would suggest.
Carter Hernandez
>tfw you're gonna see Perth and WA bubble up again and all these retarded tradies who are now
Okay so second mining boom soon. What good small caps are out there?
Juan Campbell
Sparkies rent, and they're the higher income earners trade wise. Welders and alike are more inclined to buy- they earn about 15-20% less though. Long term, manufacturing well could move inland for machinery- lithium battery production, solar panels, and metal components- It's an idea i literally just came up with very drunk, so excuse it.
I don't think prices will rise much, no property company touches those areas for development purposes due to their volatility. "Rental yields will increase but and occupancy will tighten" - check out my faggot executive lingo ;)
Dylan Foster
I liked how you said "tighten", that's a good all purpose executive word to throw in. It's like chicken salt.
Grayson Barnes
Small caps? Are you high? Going forward, access to cheap capital is a huge economic moat (comparative advantage) for bigger companies. Automation is implemented when the cashflow provided is at a logical/required level given the company's situation.
Big miners will get bigger, small miners will be purchased at a small discount to book value for scrap, i'd assume. All mining equipment that isn't electric is going to be a writedown on the books in about 7 or 8 years.
BHP RIO for stability RSG for good value, fundamentally sound.
I remember investing pre mining boom blindly picking stocks after dad said to do so. PDZ in at 12c out at low sixties. Timing is what matters. Rockefellers aren't in oil anymore. Food for thought.
Blake Carter
Thanks, I haven't eaten today and these beers are really starting to hit me. That faggot PC lingo is why i'd only be public to buy back my stock at below book value & purposely devalue to go private.
Noah Martinez
housing is stable you wont get a serious discount on a home just because theres been a slump
i can show you homes that are 30% cheaper today than 6 months ago. if that isnt a discount, already, what is a discount?
Blake Young
Im rich northwest, white suburb. Median has gone from 3m to 2m flat. Look at what sold last month vs original listing price, and apply that discount relatively to current properties.
Dylan Carter
people are creatures of habit. once they see the rental squeeze theyll want a piece of it.
you know the crash is close when overleveraged retards start lashing out at the messenger and oh would you just look at what's going on ITT so on point you'd be excused for believing this is OP on a proxy adding credence to his argument
Noah Bennett
U need a beer cunt
Mason Flores
Do you have discord or protonmail? Fascinated by points and would love to discuss this further
Michael Green
Ill make a tenminutemail and you email me and ill give you my email there
Caleb Wood
I have been biding my time for well over 5 years now. I'm rubbing my hands together thinking about this. It is glorious
Zachary Richardson
[email protected] Email me with your normal account and ill reply on my personal
Caleb Williams
>Rational economic decision making has been shown to produce high levels of cortisol, epinephrine and corticosteroids, associated with elevated levels of stress. It seems that the dopaminic system is only activated upon achieving the reward, and otherwise the "pain" receptors, particularly in the pre-frontal cortex of the left hemisphere of the brain show a high level of activation.
Rilling J.K., Sanfey A.G., Aronson J.A., Nystrom L.E., Cohen J.D. (2004). "Opposing BOLD responses to reciprocated and unreciprocated altruism in putative reward pathways". NeuroReport 15: 2539–2543. doi:10.1097/00001756-200411150-00022
Luke Jackson
Can confirm that execs achieve grey hair status after a bear market
James Cooper
So you'd have to have an abnormal reaction to pain, and a tolerance for stress, in order to best biologically succeed in investing then.
High test autism is the best for trading, confirmed
Tyler Taylor
General managers or higher are autistic & technically correct, with good ideas and management skills (ocd really, go ape shit if something can be fixed and isnt) or just good with people and charismatic.
Watch jamie dimon. He's good with people. Dick Weil is someone who'd complain when his mug was tilted 3 degrees in the cupboard.
They said syd would go for soft landing. You think anyone with power listens to the media? And not their friends who are pulling the strings making trends?
Alexander Hall
Despite what some anons might side about arid desserts etc, the reality is Australian coastline is MASSIVE and full of liveable space. The problem is Infrastructure and lack of incentives.
It all started when Australia allowed non white immigrants who settled in the 2 biggest cities Melbourne and Sydney which grew disproportionately to the rest of the country, basically everything in Australia is whitin 3-4 cities and the rest lacks basic infrastructure such as colleges, hospitals etc, highways are pathetic at best for a first world country leaving people with no choice but to remain in the population centres.
I currently live in Sydney and want to move out to Perth which is a bit more affordable the issue is employment, I make good coin here in Sydney and could never hope to make this much anywhere else. Even now all the immigrants and students just come straight to Sydney with no incentive to move to any other city which desperately needs people. Coastline is full of little town which potential but good luck moving there and starting a life or successful business, whatever money u save buying a house there you’ll spend in the ammenities u can’t find there. We can’t even provide internet for these communities. Our government is pathetic and boomers are running this country straight into the ground they don’t give a fuck the only thing they care about it’s their property value, they were well aware the government was selling the country to China and they got behind them because their house price kept going up.
That’s why all the zoomers like OP are jizzing in the pants at the prospect or a day or reckoning.
Fucking boomers sold the country and now their properties are going to plummet, DELICIOUS.
Ian Garcia
Then fuck off out of sydney? Melbourne will be bigger than sydney in a decade or so. Brissy is beautiful. Perth if youre a miner...
Nathaniel Gomez
I can't see how anywhere where people were highly leveraged can have a soft landing in the face of interest rate rises from the US. Canada can't buck that trend, capacity to borrow gets reduced when rates rise, and borrowers hit the wall and are forced to sell (at loss).
My understanding of Canada right now is that the bubble has only recently, as in within 1 or 2 months, began to deflate. It'll take years to deflate, and extrapolating that the beginning not being a huge drop in prices means the continung drop in prices won't gain momentum in the face of rate rises and negative sentiment isn't very logical.
Luke Morris
This comment is right at the centre of the reddit-facebook-normie Venn diagram. Your whole existence is repulsive and i can't believe you're even on this board. Why the fuck are you on Jow Forums, let alone Jow Forums? How did you get here? Don't you have Marvel Cinematic Universe memes to post to your Snap Story?
Carter Rodriguez
There's a nice correlation, not exact but it'll provide a general rule. Watch the US market. They're still bouyant but that'll come to an end now they're at the end of monetary expansion.
Anyone in parramatta is indian, only has whack marks from their parents, or is muslim.
Nicholas Campbell
This thing just keeps going up. Easiest x3 I ever did and it was in the middle of a fucking dump. And it's STILL the most undervalued crypto in the entire space
remember capital gains taxes, the govt is desperate for cash, and can fuck you from abroad
Henry Myers
>Now, go away boy, you bother me.
Cringe, who's wine mom are you?
Luis Hughes
butthurt zoomer with 5 over leveraged loans detected... bet you dont feel smart now do ya champ
Jack Flores
What part of I make more coin here than I possibly could anywhere else u don’t understand. I could make a similar amount in Melbourne but the prices are similar so there is no real advantage.
No incentive to move away from the overcrowded cities. Gotta suck it up.
Jordan Miller
My agenda is simple. I want all the boomers who sold the future of their kids to chinks to suffer.
Boomers act like it was tough to buy a house back then yet before 1990 at worst the average price of a house in sidney was the equivalent of 6 years of wages, nowadays is about 20 years worth. And the reason? Boomers sold the country to chinks and foreign investors knowing damn well they would destroy the dreams of future generations. Most aussies don’t even want a backyard now, they just want to not have to pay 500 dollars a week in rent even if it means living in a unit. That’s the Aussie dream now, a fucking unit.
Cunts. They even have the nerve to demand more age care and welfare when 90% of the welfare budget goes towards age care. I will vote against old people every chance I get, because I know damn well I won’t get the benefits they get now because it’s unsustainable it’s a fucking pyramid scheme. You can only import dirty pajeets to pay taxes to support the welfare state for so long. It will collapse, thanks boomers. Having everything handed to you wasn’t enough you also had to steal from future generations.
William Bennett
Checked, preach and hear hear. Listening to fatarse smug The Australian reading boomer fuckheads condescend to younger people about how they need to be less entitled, when boomers themselves are the most entitled generation in history, is why I want to see it all collapse.
Jackson Perry
>just take on a 14x income mortgage. I swear it'll be profitable. Wages aren't increasing ahead of cpi or broad money but somehow you're going to find a buyer who borrows 28x their income so you can double your money one day
