/smg/ - Stock Market General

They call it the golden bull run

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I have $100k sitting in a savings account but it seems like a terrible time to invest in anything right now. Is this just irrational fear?

>put the last of my money in MSFT $112 calls

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Yes, you should wait to go back into the market until the next recession. But I have no idea when that will be.

WHO HYPED FOR THE RIP YOUR FACE OFF DOW RALLY UP 500 POINTS MONDAY!!!!

Maybe try some t-bonds or other fixed income options if you'd like some slightly higher returns user. Besides that, just wait until things come crashing down.

You could buy some I-bonds but you can only get 10K a year. But if you get some now and then some jan 1 you can get 20k.

Are you being sarcastic? plsbepatientetc but yeah, there's no way of telling when there'll be another recession. Past dates are not really indicative of future events; everyone says "we are due for a recession" or whatever but that's not really true is it?

I lose a lot when something is just sitting in my savings account. But I'm too pussy to consider even ETFs. I wanted to do the reddit meme tier JUST PUT IT IN VANGUARD BRO but now I'm even scared to do that.

AMRN - more good news for our hero. The latest predictions all seem to be angling for a 194 % gain still to come for the stock. (Current price is holding at $18 per). At this rate (the drug ain't even selling en mass yet) we'll have to celebrate by creating "Praise AMRN" T-Shirts or something. Profit is coming oh yes indeed.

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you're just wasting money letting it sit there

invest it but actively manage it. get out when we are really in a recession.

or just buy cuck bonds

invest 50% of it and hold the rest cash to buy the bottom when/if the recession does hit. you don't have to go all in bro.

>savings account
No never. At least go bonds or gics or inflation is eroding your wealth user. Also its no major risk to you to have a small percentage in equities to get your feet wet.

I currently use Vanguard and its a great place to be for long term investments.

If you have not started a Roth IRA do that and contribute your 5500 for this and then Jan 1 put in another 5500. That should go into a target date retirement fund.

Then buy the 20K of Ibonds which I mentioned.

That leaves you with 69K.

For that I would maybe put into CD's or something? Thats tough.

So let me get this straight, if I buy an Amazon call or put for $5,000 and the price of Amazon goes up/down 100 dollars, will I have made $10,000?

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Guys I am in a Consumer Discretionary ETF currently. At the peak of this Bull Run should I sell that and switch to Consumer Staple ETF in order to position myself for a recession?

If you buy/write the contract, you are out the money for the strike price reglardess of where it moves.

1 contract = $1 profit per cent above the break even price. if you have 10 contracts and it goes up 100 dollars, you make $100,000

For the love of God don't make any puts until you know how this shit works. The SEC will rape you if you fuck up.

Ok, I've been trading contracts for a few months but I ask for Amazon specifically because it's more expensive than anything I've ever traded so I assume it was too good to be true, like maybe if it goes up $100 you would only make, say 75% of 10,000 or something.

any learning resources for options trading? that is what yall are talking about right?

Investopedia has a lot of info

If it's too good to be true, then it is.
I will tell you I am drunk as hell, but I know that writing contracts for options means you are obligated to either buy or sell at that price.
I don't recall if you said you were writing puts or calls, but that obligation alone means I would do my due diligence and make sure I knew what was up.

I would sell the contract before it expired, of course. And I don't plan on doing it anytime soon because I'm just a poor college kid.

Are you certain you'd have a buyer?

Hypothetically, I would do it on Robinhood, which would warn me if there were no buyers. And if there were no buyers, the price would be substantially lower than the other options.

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Just go long until it's clear that the market is wack. At most you'll lose 10% before realizing the market is headed for -50%, at which point you can just buyback in easily. Or, maybe it's a false start and the market recovers. Then you still buyback in and make up for the -10% and then some.

tl;dr: stop being a fucking pussy and go long until you feel the pressure, then assess. Every minute you spend without a position is money lost.

user, please tell me you understand what a bid ask spread is...

Heh. Imagine if they had stuff like that in 1929.

Why do people think this bull run will last longer than a day?

You should not be trading options

RECORD DAY TOMORROW

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Oh fug. user pls. Just trade normal shares. This... this will not end well.

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Leaf here so would appreciate input from other leafs. I'm thinking of moving retirement funds from Mutual to Index funds. Thoughts on this?

whats the opposite of FUD?

shilling

There are TA reasons for another run up to ATH or a bounce off the resistance of the previous ATH. Both the Dow and S&P broke above their descending trends last week. That was extremely bullish already and it happened before the G20 stuff came back neutral/positive.

reposting from the last thread

Leverage has already surpassed 2008 levels, defaults are rising, emerging markets are slowing, the housing market is struggling, FAANGs are all in hotwater with or without trade war, profit rates have been stagnant for several years now, and retained earnings for durable good manufacturing have stagnated too.

Stagnant profits has been the underlying fault line of all the most serious crises including the great depression, 70s stagflation, 2008 crisis.

Retained earnings for durable good manufacturing have also stagnated or fallen ahead of the last three recessions (which is all we have data for). It's not hard to imagine why. What are the biggest durable good markets? Housing, cars, heavy industrial machinery. All products that often require leverage, meaning problems in these sectors are extremely capable of spreading contagion to the rest of the economy.

Things don't look pretty from where I'm sitting.

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Besides I bonds you can buy TIPS which will keep pace with inflation.

Also, what's the interest rate on your account?

>the housing market is struggling
lol get the fuck outta here. the housing market is "struggling" meaning that people aren't making %100 profit off their houses they bought back in 2008. faggots are holding out for cash money buyers who pay %30 above asking like it was last summer.

Pardon, only the S&P broke above trend. The Dow hasn't yet.

S&P500 going to 2950

I was referring to housing starts, which are being squeezed by higher mortgage rates and labor shortages.

higher mortgage rates don't mean much right now because homebuyers are carrying cash.

>Leverage has already surpassed 2008 levels
Doesn't matter unless yields and liquidity are struggling (they're not current)

>defaults are rising
Show me that metric.

>emerging markets are slowing
Yes, as they have for several years now, which has given time for investors to begin winding down their exposure in EM

>the housing market is struggling
It's slowing down -- I wouldn't say struggling. Real estate prices always fluctuate. Demand is falling due to high prices -- it'll correct.

>FAANGs are all in hotwater with or without trade war
You're just speculating. People have said FAANGs are in deep shit since they recovered from their first crash.

>profit rates have been stagnant for several years now, and retained earnings for durable good manufacturing have stagnated too.
I agree, and that will cause the next recession to hurt, but it will not be the cause of a recession.

(1/2)

>Stagnant profits has been the underlying fault line of all the most serious crises including the great depression, 70s stagflation, 2008 crisis.
Confusing cause with correlation. Stagnant profits have never caused a recession. However, they have resulted in a recession hurting much more than it could/should.

>Retained earnings for durable good manufacturing have also stagnated or fallen ahead of the last three recessions (which is all we have data for). It's not hard to imagine why. What are the biggest durable good markets? Housing, cars, heavy industrial machinery. All products that often require leverage, meaning problems in these sectors are extremely capable of spreading contagion to the rest of the economy.
Agreed. See my earlier point. These companies are all overleveraged. Once the economy turns red, they will get hurt the most. But again, you're confusing cause with effect. You see the terrible performance of manufacturing in 2008 and you think that's because they did something to cause it. PCE is still going strong.

All in all, you and most of Jow Forums keep ignoring the actual factors that determine recessions. Inflation, spreads, yields, liquidity, etc. I get it: shit looks fucked. But nothing of what you mentioned will CAUSE a recession.

The interest rate is negligible its like 0.5% or something. I will probably keep 48k on hand for emergencies (put it in a high yield savings account, I think the highest I could find was like 2.5% at another bank) and research how to invest the rest.

Why is there still so much confidence in the market then? I hope you are right and we return to 'sanity'

Yes i recently did this with some of my holdings, td e-series are decent value at .32 -.5 mer and you can track tsx, s&p,ftse canadian universe bond, nasdaq, djia, msci eafe and msci europe. This will provide you with enough diversty to be as agressive or safe as you need to be.
They are no load and are no fees for trading them as long ast is no within 30 days from purchase.
Sure as hell beats their other 2%+ mer "comfort portfolio". Its rare for any of the mutual funds to outperform the indices anyway and why give them your money?

based green wojak poster

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In your opinion when do you see the next recession beginning?

Also, I was not financially aware when the 2008 crisis happened. Was it so sudden that you could not exit the market? Do you think I will have time to reasonably exit?

dude, go look at the S&P. it took like a year for the market to bottom out. you will have plenty of time to bail. me? i'd rather just lay down some puts and buy more.

>In your opinion when do you see the next recession beginning?
Not when. If a certain array of signals light up, it will kick start an incredible recession and possibly a depression. But until that happens, I'm extremely bullish.

>Was it so sudden that you could not exit the market?
No. If you were keen enough, it would've been obvious that something was going to happen in August 2007.

>Do you think I will have time to reasonably exit?
Only if you're looking at the right economic signals. Otherwise you're just trying to haplessly predict market movement. Don't pay much mind to company financials though. The market will value them high if the economy is good and low if the economy is bad. The market is retarded. Take advantage of its retardation.

Thats actually really low MER so I'll take a look into TD. I'm very new to financial investing so sorry if this a dumb question, but would it be bad if I'm not actively trading? I only plan to allocate a portion of money for investing monthly rather than actively trading from the index funds. I assume that means I'm probably more on the safe side?

imo, if you aren't actively trading just put it in your 401k.

Leaf here so we have something called an RRSP. Mine is currently in mutual funds with high management fees so I'm looking to see if I can place them in some form of index funds for long term growth instead.

Absolutely no problem, you will need to convert to an e-series to buy the funds which just means sending in a form. Judt take a look at a mutual fund you really like in the prospectus, how it's assets are allocated (eg 30%canadian equities/30%US 30%bonds 10% international) or whatever
Then use the 7 indices to mimic your prefered fund. Its you only have to worry about adding to them in the ratio you like which you can set up.
Easy one would be 40% bonds 30% tsx 30%s&p for simplicity and safety.

And what economic signals are those?

if leaf taxes work anything like burger taxes, you are still better off with the RRSP if you don't want to actively manage your portfolio. I still contribute to a 401k myself, i consider my stock account "mad money".

They do its tax defferement so exact same shit.

Our tfsa is the same as your ira except we roll over our cap space so its much better.

>he fell for the crash meme

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Shit, I think the euphoria is wearing off. Futures stuck at 2800.

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>Doesn't matter unless yields and liquidity are struggling (they're not current)
We are already seeing liquidity problems in emerging economies, and the fact that some of the latest market downturns had no clear trigger also points to liquidity issues.

>Show me that metric.
Experion Indexes show auto and mortgage defaults increasing this quarter. Not crisis levels, yet, but a strong shock somewhere in the economy could easily put things over the edge when we're this over leveraged. us.spindices.com/additional-reports/all-returns/index.dot?parentIdentifier=d7cded81-5f32-4509-b55f-bd3d2378d6b0&sourceIdentifier=index-family-specialization&additionalFilterCondition=

>Yes, as they have for several years now, which has given time for investors to begin winding down their exposure in EM
This isn't just a stock market issue. Demand is falling in emerging markets and China is developing similar issues. A lot of american companies rely on these buyers.

>You're just speculating.
Retained earnings are falling hard for Apple, Netflix and Amazon are both going to face big new competition from Disney's streaming service. Amazon is also facing lots of deep labor issues world wide. Both amazon and apple face large trade war risks. Google and facebook are probably going to be ok, I guess, but european regulatory action poses some problems so idk.

>Confusing cause with correlation.
There's a reason I didn't say the word trigger. Rather, the profits made these crisis as bad as they were and thus defined them in a way.

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Yeah I was about to say you should be getting at least 2% on that. I get that much from ally bank, and it's very convent especially cuz of their online platform.

As for why there's so much confidence, well, it's been a long time since the last crash. No one wants to believe all the good times are over.

So if anyone actually wants to make money on the bull run tomorrow, make sure to sell by midday at least.

Quick question for Boomer investors:

Is long TLT a good way to invest in us treasury?

There's confidence in the market because the USA is currently an exit scam.

i do think inflation is very important here, and the tight labor market and the trade war costs will be a big factor in what happens.

I'd be careful relying on the yield curve too much. Ppl like to say its erring on the side of being too flat, but other regulatory changes might be pushing it the other way, actually.

God I hate that stuttering autistic communist fuck.

Futures can only go so far as an indicator of positive sentiment shift. There has to be more volume for buy signals to ring out across the markets and proper pump get commence.

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My bad then. I see now we pretty much agree that the market is fucked once a recession does happen. I just don't think anyone can say it's going to happen any time soon.

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Christ tomorrow is going to be entertaining, I wish I didnt have to go to work but I need to beef up that Christmas cheque. Asia is lighting up.

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All these niggas getting liquidated tomorrow

cant wait for the official run to Daq "its over 9k"

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>tfw stock market has become more interesting than crypto market

I don't know if I like this.

For all the doom and gloom, fear mongering, retarded MSM speculation, and blatant lies about trade “wars” the market is 100 s&p point for new all time highs

Makes you think?

They said Bitcoin could only go up, too. I hope you've got your finger on the trigger for when everything falls tomorrow after your "golden bull run."

There’s a difference between the biggest economy in he world growing at 4% with 20% yoy earnings growth and fucking scamcoins

Yeah, one's an exit scam run by politicians and corporate types and the other's an exit scam run by autistic NEETs.

DOUBLING MY FUCKING STACK IN 3 WEEKS.

Don't yolo gamble they said, don't buy rando options they said. yeah...

The day they start paying the army in bitcoin let me know

Youll blow up kid

Three weeks is a long time in that game.

The intraday high will break it, but I don't think they'll close above 2800

>t. fragilista
you're gonna blow up kid. enjoy it while it lasts.

I'll call you up when the market and government crash all at once and suddenly all those elite people you'd normally hold responsible are living in China.

Now you need to stop when you are ahead...

>(((labor shortages)))
Communist kikes were doing everything they could to cut industrial arts back in the early Nineties while doing nothing to upgrade technology or teach niggers to behave on a job site or mailroom.
>oy vey the labor shortages we need more spics and poos! Throw in some sandniggers too!