Post your interesting research tidbits related to the market, these could include:
>APRA macroprudential tools
>Housing finance and loan charts
>Migration flows
>Building approvals
>Wage and Labour statistics
>Foriegn Direct Investment
>Auction volumes/clearance rates
>RBA and cash rate related info
>Cost of living
>Urban density
Anything else??
Other urls found in this thread:
cecaust.com.au
ainsliebullion.com.au
atlas.media.mit.edu
qgso.qld.gov.au
corelogic.com.au
businessinsider.com.au
economicstudents.com
twitter.com
Predictions
More predictions
Idk man DYOR, but i think you should wait since this drop is unprecedented because the dramatic way in which the market reversed direction and how quickly it has declined. I mean all it took was APRA to go "yeah nah mate ill need a better LVR than that" there havent been any major external shifts in terms of cash rate hike or recession. We are at a point in the business cycle that is due for some sort of a recession/correction/credit-crunch.
I would say hold off on buying for at least a year. My two cents prediction is once people see a 15% drop from ATH, the capital that has been waiting in the wings will flood the market and theyll be a slight uptick for maybe a quarter or two then the real decline will begin if and only if there truly is a major problem with the debt accumulated by property developers and the banks. We'll also find out the extent of mortgage stress if rates go up.
Why is this happening what started it. Haven’t people been predicting the bubble to pop recently?
>Why is it happening?
Mate the leading economists in Australia cant figure that out reliably. A 40% increase from 2012-2016 is pretty insane for housing in syd and melb. My opinion is that its a cluster fuck of interest rates, speculation, negative gearing, incompetent urban planning, low real wage growth,lower lending standards ,foreign investment and undersupply.
Also nobody refers to it as a bubble, the most crucial thing is not to rubbish mainstream media like news corp or nine or fairfax or even the ABC. Nobody has a clear picture because alot of the data to piece together a full picture isnt available to any one firm. I would say just follow @cmkusher on twitter hes probably the most reliable and reasoned source, he does however work for corelogic so he wouldn't be able to tell you something if he knew. In the past few months he has been sending some interesting Signals.
>Is not to listen to rubbish*
Also cmkusher deleted all his tweets going back like 6 years in early this year and continues to delete new tweets. Which is interesting because thats when the media decided to load what im calling "the crash FUD", they were sleeping on the story of APRA changing its macroprudential policy for a whole year (maybe enough time for rich people to get out of the market? The richest areas in sydney and the 10th percentile real estate recorded insane falls early on) and then suddenly decided to load the FUD
Evidence for "rich people sold off and got out"
>Mate the leading economists in Australia cant figure that out reliably
Economists are always bed with 1% and Gov. Retailers and common man are fucked always. Anecdotally speculative buying by chinks/pajeets are the principle reason. This country is literally sold to elites and chinks. Unlike US, job market is tiny and diversity of industries is too small. Biochemical engineers driving trains. And when you have gotten rich by just mining and dumping that to real-estate, without focusing on knowledge economy, you are screwed. All these "economic" reasons (interest rates, speculation, negative gearing, incompetent urban planning, low real wage growth,lower lending standards ,foreign investment and undersupply) are manifestations of deeper issues in labour market.
BTW, media quality here is BS-to-the-power-10.
>My opinion is that its a cluster fuck of interest rates, speculation, negative gearing, incompetent urban planning, low real wage growth,lower lending standards ,foreign investment and undersupply.
Exactly the same shit here in Canada, word for word. The ship is sinking and rats are scurrying off as fast as they can, with boomers still holding on
Australian government confiscate savings bailout banks etc.
cecaust.com.au
ainsliebullion.com.au
Talk about moral hazard, now theyll do whatever the fuck they want.
Ive always thought Australia's exports are a joke, for such a smart country we've done nothing to diversify away from 1900's type commodities , honestly feel sad for us...
China
Yeah blame the fucking chinks for this, definitely has nothing to do fiscal/monetary policy or the afformentioned factors.
Cunts like think your "based and redpilled" but the great irony is you've been fed this scapegoat narrative by corporate mainstream media in Australia (news corp, fairfax, nine) if you actually look at the numbers (the actual numbers not manipulated business insider charts/stats) youll find it is a factor but not the major factor.
Those 1900 commodities might come in handy when shtf
Cheap Credit and liquidity ALWAYS leads to higher asset prices. All assets go down in a delfationary deleveraging. Not hard.
Journalist here. Not on finance. I know nothing about housing but I can tell you what the commercial entities (banks, economists, ratings agencies etc) send us daily if you want to know what info is being passed to newspapers.
Btw finance journalists are 50/50 on crypto (some still say fake internet money others are buying now).
They also all say recession in two years.
what app is this? where can i view these figures?
Yes but its the EXTENT of cheap credit and liquidity. Everybody thinks that just because they read a few simplified books and watched some docos on the financial crisis , that suddenly theyre economists. What we are experiencing is not the same thing, sure there are similarities but they are not enough to explain, with confidence the current situation.
Trying to Gauge the size and scope of housing finance in Australia does not paint as clear a picture on the rise of prices as you might think...
atlas.media.mit.edu
This website keeps track of and indicator called the economic complexity index. Basically its about how diversified and "complex" your economy is. Australia is one of the lowest ranked OECD countries just under Kazakhstan
Oh, ok Mr Friedman
Dont compare me to that kike.
Which one of the mass media companies are you with?
Mate if you could send me some thatd be sweet, my email is:
[email protected]
lads, is brisbane ok to buy right now?
there is no normie who literally believed house prices went any direction other than up. to most goys it was the way to make it, it was all they were aware of and at the very least the only thing they knew how / could leverage. going literally all in at 5 - 10 - 20x+ was celebrated success. this board gets it, aside from crypto it is only 'buy and rent property'
nobody here had, or is yet to have any fucking idea of what happens in reverse. the literal worst case scenario for chad norman was he would be back up in x years anyway. provided he continues forking over half his income on unchanging repayments he won't lose unless he decides to sell.
most of this is reflected in the current cope, word for fucking word same as the bit coins cope. a short term recovery is generally being taken for granted. on this boards favorite chart we are in denial phase. we might see a bit of bull trap if enough people can find the money, fear begins when enough retards lose their 'investments' for it to be public outrage rather than some goy who fucked up.
It depends in which SA4 region (lookup ABS SA4 map) and what you are getting house or unit/apartment. The only place were prices havent moved is bribane interestingly, however i suspect it will move downward with everyone else if by only a bit and maybe thats where the capital will go, instead of sydney or Melbourne
qgso.qld.gov.au
Heres a list of the maps.
Correction: Clearly i didnt read my own chart.
What i meant to say is Brisbane hasnt moved much***
Ryde is a noisy over crowded shithole. Plus it is severely overpriced. Why would anyone buy there?
Ric Deverell is probably the pre eminient economist in Australia.
The chinese figures are as rubbery as a balloon. You can't read into them or work off them.
Baulkam hills should hit a median of $800K
over 3 years old. No good for discussion unless you want to reminisce.
Hey guys, I want to ask some question but don't want to make another thread.
I'm 30+, from south america, get paid good wages and have saved some 25k USD in 2 years of work. Only recently I started working in IT.
I'm about to make a big mistake by buying a house with my mom. It wouldn't be a problem if the conditions didn't mean she gets to own the property only after 5 years, and only then I could ask her to make me half-owner (I'm supposed to trust her...). There is also the minimal but certain possibility that they take away her property before those 5 years pass. I won't explain why, but it has to do with some housing subsidies she has got.
The house is in a ~5000 sq ft lot, it is old, made of wood, and needs lots of fixes. OTOH, the patio is surrounded by many rooms that can be rented daily in the summer and monthly in winter, which is what she wants, but not what *I* want a house for... I want it to go there on weekends to have a rest.
I do have most of the money I'd have to pay, and she would pay more or less half of the cost, minus her part (she's partly owner: it's her family house, which she inherited, with her other 5 sons...), and I'd pay the rest. But I think this house is overpriced (US$80k in total, we'd have to pay 5/6 of that), and wouldn't really pay if I had the money to buy it by myself.
The thing is, I'm desperate, I need my own house, or at least a place where I can leave my stuff, go on weekends and rest/work/study/whatever. Right now I live and work in a big city, relatively far (2 hours) from this house, which isn't much of a problem on itself, except for the fact that I rent a shitty, noisy but cheap studio apartment near my workplace, and there really aren't many alternatives... If this house was mine, I'd keep renting this apartment and then go to my house on weekends.
What should I do? Should I wait for the housing market crash in my country, and only then buy? Should I keep looking for cheap houses in this shitty, overinflated market?
You mental giant. Your suggesting the "rich" people offloaded to the "poor" people.
Your tin hat needs replacing.
Again with the rich people selling off. Who the fuck to? These comments are insane.
According to who? that would be fucking insanity.
How the fuck should i know "to who" all i read is the data and the data says rich peoples houses a.k.a the most expensive 10% of houses lead all the price falls. Why? BECAUSE THEY WERE LEFT OUT ON THE MARKET FOR TOO LONG OR SOLD BELOW ESTIMATED VALUE AT AUCTION.
corelogic.com.au
buy the dip
Cause we have nothing but dirt to export.
We have no intelligent industry.
We have no intelligent labour force.
Also a two party system where both are socialist is a road to ruin.
You imply the "rich" sold off.
Elaborate further or expect the obvious to be read into your comment.
You talk as though the rich are reptiles or something similar.
>Also a two party system where both are socialist is a road to ruin
and you call me a mental giant. Why dont you fuck off
>elaborate
i just fucking did elaborate you dumb cunt.
>You talk as though the rich are reptiles or something similar.
no mate but theyre clearly a step ahead of you
Fun Fact: Rodney Rude's grandfather was one of the top 10 richest men in Gawler.
He never let any dips or downturns sour his attitude to life.
Did you lose a fortune that you never had but thought you deserved.
The smith's crisp on your shoulder is salty as all fuck, saltier than my grandfathers royal cock.
Probably more than anything we don't have a single intelligent OP.
Your basing everything off the fact that its an "overinflated market" but it could just be real growth.
Dont draw such conclusions when not even the best economists cant tell you with certainty. I mean if youve done tons of research and understand the market well sure but even then i wouldnt be too certain.
IMO, real issue as we became complacent with "easy money" from mining and mining-real-estate combo, we did nurture a culture necessary for development of knowledge economy. Meritocracy is a joke in this country. Mate-o-cracy is everything.
Look at Big 4 banks. Most boomer executives are "generic" executives with a handful equipped with solid finance background. Same story repeats everywhere. A real-estate salesman becomes a technical partner of a tech-patent firm browsing through RFPs. In LinkedIn, I have scanned plenty of profiles where there exist a stark mismatch between their education and job-domain. The message is if you are a chad and drink enough, you can schmooze your way through.
>did nurture
typo. did NOT nurture