>I'm new to the stock market, what stocks should I buy? Before you buy anything, make a brokerage account and read investopedia articles and/or the books in the OP list. If you don't have a broker, you can't buy stocks, and if you blindly buy things without understanding how the stock market works or doing any research on the individual stocks you're buying, you will lose money and it will be entirely your fault.
honestly sell anything that is above 10 p/e that you're not 100% sure has some patented fucking explosive shit with a great plan to sell it and will explode in profit.
novideo, mocrosift, apple, netflux, shintel, amazhone, teslo, doesn't fucking matter if they get more and more profitable, they're way overvalued even accounting for that. 5% earnings a year on price is fucking nothing after inflation. NOTHING
NOTHING NOTHING
ONLY GREATER FOOL THEORY IS HOLDING UP THE STOCK PRICES ON ALMOST EVERY POPULAR STOCK
a fucking bort mission. no fundamentals are going to catch these stock prices when they pink wojak down. no buybacks are going to be sizable enough to stem the tide, because the companies can't afford it.
only stocks whose companies are very misunderstood and underestimated with huge profits and huge future profits that spend a large amount of that on continued buybacks might weather the storm.
Sell everything in general if you think a market crash is coming. It won't matter how good a company is in a crash. Cash is an asset all ok its own - Buffet (I think)
Nathan Bailey
If you can't predict the timing of a crash, and you know of a very undervalued stock that might moon before the crash, and has tremendous buyback potential during a crash and will rebound among the absolute fastest after a crash, then holding that is a way of to not miss out in case crash doesn't come for 1-2 years, while not being absolutely dogshit pink wojaked by holding stocks propped up by greater fool theory alone.
for example, if micron crashes to half its current price, one year of earnings allow them to buy back half the company's market cap. that's the only kind of exception one should ever dare to make when awaiting a crash (if one believes in continued high earnings).
Ian Thomas
The 200 day clearly passed the 50 day during the last recession in 2008, why no red line?
Jace Russell
if there's a crash, micron's earnings will go through the shitter
Brandon Garcia
Gamble on the orange man tweet market
Oliver Sanchez
depends on what kind of crash. if its a huge stock market crash, but consumption rates stay within 20% of current levels, I'd say they have nothing to worry about.
if there's a recession that leads to extreme mass unemployment and unrest, their total addressable market shrinks dramatically.
some of the more in-debt business customers of micron will go under if there is a credit crunch, but their competitors with better cash flow will increase production to meet end user demands.
Jaxson Smith
what always gets the most justed in stock market crashes is luxury product and service markets, especially high end real estate.
Hunter Smith
Horrible China data released late Friday night. Very low chance of the Brexit deal passing Tuesday. Get ready for the no bounce open later.
People at my new wagecuck job are starting to talk about the recession we're about to have. But these aren't low paid minimum wage niggers these are whiteboi suburban engineers who have probably never had any real life struggles to date.
Is it actually happening?
Jose Ross
> Recession back on the menu when the previous one is barely over fucking epic
Adam Martinez
Wouldn't a etf/fund with board market exposure, such as S&P 500 help during a downturn. I thought that was the whole point of them; to help keep loses at a minimum while also giving you some sweet gains if the underlying stocks do good.
Bentley King
S&P has dropped 50% for each of the last two recessions. The broad market isn't what you want.
Henry Brown
The best thing to be holding during a downturn is noncyclicals (utilities, health care, consumer staples) and 2x inverse ETFs
Owen Young
if we have inflation, yes. if we do not have inflation, no. Prices will drop across the board and SPY is overexposed to things like apple and M$ compared to other stocks that will retain their value.
Camden Stewart
probably when we've made a profit...
Leo Brown
>profit I don't know the meaning of them dirty words.
Tyler Price
You are foolish to think financial opinions of normies are worth listening to. The same people got hyped about Bitcoin in late 2017. No, the point of index funds are low fees and no effort. They only perform well in a bull market. Actively managed funds have beaten them in the current volatile environment. barrons.com/articles/active-stockpickers-are-outpacing-passive-funds-1478318812
Nicholas Sullivan
> Stared at econ paper for 10 hours wondering what to write and can't come up with a single fucking word
Ayden Russell
What about something like SDY? Payouts shouldn't fall that much in a recession right? Wouldn't you grossly outperform the market? Are dividends truly my fren?
>implying Spiral into alcohol-induced oblivion and spend Sunday recovering and, if the mood fits, showering and maybe cleaning up a bit. That's the /smg/ life.
Nolan Nguyen
Write about how it is incredibly inefficient and how boomers a fugged once recession comes
Brandon Davis
Dow will be under 20000 by New Years
David Carter
Here's your worst case scenario bro.
Doesn't even begin to take into account the more nuanced savings from the 2017 tax bill nor the potential for tariffs largely being under 25%. You can think of the timeline starting in November 2016 upon Trump's election. At that point, the market began pricing in expected corporate tax savings. In November of 2017, the actual plan was revealed to grant a direct 21.5% benefit to corporate profits (along with additional savings), which the market reacted positively to. Too positively, however, as the S&P quickly corrected from 2870 to 2530, which fits perfectly, as 2530 is just about a 20-25% change from pre-2016 election numbers, thus the market just about perfectly captured the tax savings.
The market continued its regular uptrend in 2018 until tariff rhetoric ramped up. At worst, tariffs would result in a 25% drawdown from either the ATH of 2900 or the properly price 2500, which is a range of 2200 to 1900.
Problem with 401k system is it relies on the individual actually choosing to save $$$ and wisely investing it. Most people aren't interested in spending the time to do so. Pension system is better for the masses.
can anybody make a list of 20~ stocks to park your shit in during recessions?
im thinking like
WMT, KO, NEE, DUK, D, JNJ
Its also god tier to just cost average down in 2x index funds though, dont want to miss that oportunity too...
Noah Ortiz
Passive funds are a trap like other user posted. They only work in bull markets. Lose 50%+ in recessions. They are for sub 100 IQ normies who failed math and hate numbers. If you have some brain power you should go with proven active investor or pick things yourself since it's not hard.
Cooper Fisher
Gross, economics student as well so i feel your pain. Could be a good topic, or maybe one on when the boomers retire. Since its going to fug most western economies that aren't the united states.....
Jacob Campbell
Most people don't beat the market. Investing in US Total Market or S&P 500 is the tried and true conservative approach. The market recovers, so if your horizon is long enough losing 50% for a year or two doesn't matter. Just keep investing every month.
Owen Stewart
>The market recovers
Sure, but the question is HOW LONG does it take to recover. You only live for 60-100 years mate. You can't wait forever.
Example: VEU tracks the international markets excluding the US and has never recovered from its high in 2007. If you invested in a broad international fund you would have lost money in 11 years of investing. People are delusional if they think the S&P500 will go up forever. We can clearly see this does not apply to other developed international markets. I wouldn't be surprised if SPY doesn't reach 300 until 2050. Telling people the market will always recover is reckless as it ignores their time horizon.
Thomas Martin
>You only live for 60-100 years mate. You can't wait forever. Significantly less than this amount on time based on the entirety of history
Landon Cox
Investing anywhere near ATH levels has historically been retarded, outside of a few instances. Even if the m market somehow found a way to double its value before the next recession, it would still tumble 50-70% in the next recessions thanks to a bursting corporate debt bubble and a likely return to democrats in power (ie, higher corporate taxes). I don't get this idea that you MUST invest your money or it's burning away. Fucking Buffett himself is at all time high levels of sitting on cash.
If you're really a retard, just turn your brain off completely and wait for a 50% retracement from ATH. Until then, keep your savings in treasuries.
Brandon Cox
You need to make money in a significantly shorter time window than that. Money is worth less when you're old. Money is most valuable when you're young when you can still do things.
Benjamin Myers
>People are delusional if they think the S&P500 will go up forever. Why? It's always gone up. The US is the financial powerhouse of the world and is the only superpower. It also doesn't have the internal issues that China has, such as the ingrained and deeply widespread corruption. Unless there's an apocalyptic event, it seems likely the S&P 500 will continue ticking upward.
Also, RE: Buffet, his situation is different than the common man investor. He saves billions in cash because he receives investment opportunities that aren't available to the public. It makes sense for him to save cash when he knows sometime down the line he'll receive amazing private deals.
Liam Williams
Well then don't buy long term investments you autist. Trying to argue the SPDRs are somehow a bad investment because you think investing for retirement is bad is dumb as fuck. A very significant amount of people plan to pull money out at 60-70, and for those people just buying the market works fine just like always.
Sebastian Foster
It's all about risk and personal desires. If you want to risk the money you make now to make lots of money quick and run the risk of losing it, that's your choice. Other people are OK with saving some money for entertainment and saving some money for conservative retirement strategies and retiring in 30 years.
Daniel Price
Back test utilities, they aren’t the way. Discount stores and healthcare are the safe havens, along with the Aristocrats and Kings.
Levi Lewis
I thought about writing about potential flaws of investing into banks or government bonds when interest rates are as low as they are in Europe (I'm Eurogarbage unfortunately).
Brandon Cruz
WM
Angel Moore
Negative interest rates also (Switzerland)
Lincoln Brown
c gis abbv
Hunter Edwards
How do I invest in the S&P 500? Is Vanguard the best way? I started a Roth IRA but have no idea what to invest in. I’m just a poorfag brainlet
Adam Brown
Your thought of buying low stocks from fuel cell companies at the moment?
Dylan Taylor
Do not invest in the S&P500 right before a recession. This is literally the dumbest thing in the world you can do. You will immediately lose 50% of your money. Hold cash. A recession always happens 100% of the time within 18 months of the yield curve inverting which occurred a few days ago.
Luke Phillips
Just checked the math on that article. Not even remotely accurate. Actual value of his portfolio would've been just above $500k, not even close to $1.1 million. Also, if he just turned his brain off and only purchased after a 30% retreat from ATH levels, he would've been sitting on above $700k by retirement, and that's not even considering the bonus he'd receive from keep uninvested savings out of the market.
And here's the method the article recommends. It makes a good point of how you'll make money regardless, but "timing the market" is not some mystically challenging endeavor when markets frequently over-correct.
Also, I just noticed in the comments that the author included dividends in his calculations. But not only would dividends fail to make up for the nearly 30% disparity between my performance and Bob's performance, but I would be in the market for roughly the same amount of time as Bob (after all, I bought just a few months after whenever Bob bought). And frankly, the treasury returns on my savings would've made up for most of my losses on dividends.
All in all, the article is making a point that you can be retarded and make money. But again, you can easily time the market because the market is an overreacting piece of shit.
Adam Ward
>you can easily time the market because the market is an overreacting piece of shit.
Post your positions for next week.
Ryan Morgan
The context of the conversation was over the course of 40+ years. Nobody can time the market over the span of a week.
Christopher Hall
>you can't time the market 1 time but you can do it 2080 times What is your argument here?
Brandon Ortiz
Short Google.
Brayden Perry
If I'm not confident with timing an inverse ETF and non-cyclicals, should I just go all-in on gold companies or hold cash?
Jason Wilson
If you want to ignore the chain of conversation, go ahead. I made the point (and proved the point) that you could turn your brain off and only buy in after 30% drawdowns and be better off than someone buying the top.
Caleb Rodriguez
Ha! Peter KIKE is a fucking moron.
Luis Wood
>only buy in after 30% drawdowns and be better off than someone buying the top No shit, but what about vs someone that buys continuously instead of buying at the most unlucky times?
Ryder Gutierrez
This is what I've been doing, I buy twice a month $500 each time no matter what. Sometimes I get a steep discount and a few times I have bought the literal all time high day, but i dont care about the value of my assets until 15+ years from now so cost averaging is the ideal way to do it
Denominating the market in oil works decently well too because of how critical it is for all industry. You can also adjust the dollar for buying power, and then measure it like that.
