SHORT GBPEUR TUESDAY

Greetings Jow Forums I'm from /brit pol/ and I'm here in the hope of helping anons make money from shorting the GBPEUR on Tuesday.
My own trading in the FX spot market is via a broker called by IG markets, who are regulated by the FCA and are one of the UK's biggest retail brokers.

I'd like to help with any questions that you have, whether you're experienced in CFDs and FX spot trading, or this is your first time.
I am expecting a minimum of a 200pip bearish price movement from Monday 10th, 1am GMT to end of market Wednesday 12th.
This is because the first reading of the Bill in UK parliament is on Tuesday 10th and everyone and their dog and believes it will fail to pass; therefore the markets will start pricing in this expectation and the GBP will sink.

The FX spot market is a pure speculation market; personally I only trade FX spot or CFDs about 6 times a year when I KNOW something will very likely happen. George Soros, is of course, one of the world's biggest currency speculators and in the past made alot of money from shorting the GBP (1992), which his quantum fund.

I'm pretty knowledgeable, and I hope I can be of service to you all. I'm doing this purely out of personal interest and not on behalf of anyone else; with that in mind, please do not consider anything I post to be financial advice.

*For US citizens, you cannot trade FX spot, because it's an OTC derivative and not on an exchange. It's also treated as tax free here in the UK (i'm in a part of UK sovereign territory in Cyprus). But there are some workarounds and alternatives, however I want to make sure you avoid any bucket shop firms.


All the best.

Attached: euandbrits flag.jpg (2880x1920, 266K)

Other urls found in this thread:

investing.com/tools/profit-calculator
tdameritrade.com/education/account-types-and-investment-products/forex-currency-trading.page#3
theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/28/theresa-may-says-a-no-deal-brexit-wouldnt-be-the-end-of-the-world
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

In the past two years we've seen big price movement whenever there's been significant new about the UK's divorce from the EU.
Tuesday is the day the UK's exit bill from the EU (draft law) is read out.
The expectation is it will fail.
The market has already started pricing this in long ago, but with the reality of the drop we will see a significant impact for those in the FX retail market to see some strong returns.

Since the beginning of December the GBP has crept lower from 1.1347 to 1.1172 which is 175 pips. On a standard lot GBPEUR in a GBP account each pip movement is worth approx £8.

So what am I getting at?
My expectation is from Monday until Wednesday we will see a further drop of around 200 pips (which is a rough average for other big Brexit news).

If we see if drop by 200pips this is a nice profit of £1788.6 on a standard lot size.

>investing.com/tools/profit-calculator

Attached: profit11540.jpg (666x499, 41K)

would this be a permanent dip? I won't have time to move the fund funds, but might just convert to dollars

>What would be a major concern for them? Anything below $1?

I can only draw on other times and the last major currency panic was in 1992 when George Soros 'crashed' the BoE with his quantum fund by shorting sterling.
This actually kicked us out of the EERM and the pound was suspended temporarily from trading.
We will see a big drop but it's unlikely to be on the scale of 1992 from Soros' big short

>would this be a permanent dip
Only in the sense it's not going to bounce back within a week.
I think if the UK looks set for a 'No deal' Brexit we will see parity in the GBPEUR.

Wouldn't no deal cause a huge amount of panic and damage to the EU market and governments as well though?

Are you in the USA?
If so, you ability to trade FX spot can only be done on an exchange or you are limited to futures.

TD Ameritrade has a subsidary firm (Think or Swim) which apparently allows people to trade FX spot from provided you live in one of the 3 States in which it's allowed. I can dig into this for you and post the details here.

I cannot vouch for this company, and would need to look into how they operate. As it would be pointless if they are a bucket shop.

Are there any leveraged currency ETFs that could potentially double or triple the return?

>Wouldn't no deal cause a huge amount of panic and damage to the EU market and governments as well though?

Great question.
Possibly, but not until towards the end of March, with article 50 being invoked on the 31st.

The current pair price already acount for brexit brah, only n00bs and the high priest of investement bankin trade on events...

no, britbong here

> leveraged currency ETFs

I've been out of the ETF game for a while,
Let me check and come post back here.

In the UK the default leverage is 50 to 1.
I.e For every £1 you trade it's leveraged by £50
So this is a significant return but also one in which you need to be wary, due to the margin requirements.

>In the UK
IG markets then friend are the best and biggest FCA regulated firm.
I've used CMC in the past who are the 2nd biggest, but it's mostly B book business from what I heard and I've experienced some slippage when profit taking.

Plus 500 are the next biggest, but they have the biggest burn and churn of clients. Again it's B book business with them so expect requotes, not the tightest spreads and slippage.

the pound will drop, I've seen enough of these events happen as regards news on Brexit. The vote is almost guaranteed to fail for Theresa May - she only barely has a majority, I wouldn't be surprised if every member of the opposition votes against her, plus there are many in her own party who will vote against her (about 1/4 to 1/3). She has no hope.

Yanks who don't understand this will panic and the pound will drop.

>The current pair price already acount for brexit brah, only n00bs and the high priest of investement bankin trade on events...

Yes, we've seen some pricing in already. But the event itself will move the market. Trading the news is something I dont normally do, save when there's a strong expectation.

When I do trade the news, I use my own 'time at risk' strategies to get in and out of the market as quick as possible; usually this is always an intra-day trade when it comes to FX spot to avoid swaps (unless it's a carry trade).

clarification: she doesn't even have a majority, she is propped up by a small party from Northern Ireland who will reject her deal because it specifically pisses them off by essentially giving Dublin (the Republic of Ireland for uneducated Yanks) more influence over them than Westminster.

>Yanks who don't understand this will panic and the pound will drop.

I suspect most of the savvy MPs will be checking their own trading accounts and will be hoping for the quid to drop having gone a punt themselves.

>*gone
having *done a punt themselves.

>savvy MPs

Why would the Brexit vote cause GBP to sink

It would basically mean Brexit is dead, and you'll see GBP moon

oh, I'm sure there are many of them. They're the ones who supported remain so they could keep their big fat EU handouts. Don't underestimate their intelligence just because they aren't altruistic.

Have you traded FX spot before?
If not open a demo account and have a play around on Monday, ready for the event.

It's upto you which broker you choose but you MUST make sure the account is regulated by the FCA. If you are in any doubt, please come back to me and I will show you how to check the FCA register.
ALSO,
When in comes to Brokers there's a big difference between
>Authorised
>Regulated

MFIDII allows EU firms to passport their services.
So your broker could be authorised by the FCA,
but because of EU rules they could be based in Bulgaria!
Be very careful the company should be Regulated AND authorised by the FCA and should be based in the UK.

it's this lack of understanding that means you:

1) are either a foreigner or retarded, and
2) will absolutely not make it.

No one knows what will happen if the vote fails because a lot of it depends on whether she chooses to resign or not. No-deal is as likely as no Brexit at that point, it's just complete uncertainty.

> it's just complete uncertainty.
That's right user.
There's one thing I know
>BULLs like CERTAINTY
>BEARs thrive in UNCERTAINTY

From what I understand if the majority of Parliament votes against her Brexit deal, which is not unlikely, then Labour can attempt a vote of no confidence in the government or Tory MPs could trigger a confidence vote in May, which might trigger a general election.
Of course all of this will make everything very chaotic, which will certainly reduce people's confidence in the GBP

I think there are two possibilities - May resigns and the Conservatives instate a new leader without a general election, or May tries to cling on at which point Labour absolutely will manage to trigger an election through a no-confidence vote.

If anyone is wondering if they should use a Stop loss?
I would say NO.
Because we could see a temporary short spike which could knock out your Stop inadvertently.

Monitor the trade manually.
Make the time, to do so, call in sick, kick the dog out, whatever you need to do to be sat in front of your computer.

The best way to manage risk is by having sufficient margin. i.e be above 100% .
Most 'Stop Outs' now are around 25%; some are higher of course.

If they trade goes completely against you having margin means you can wait out the trade until it turns profitable.

I'm literally British.

100% can assure you no deal Brexit will never happen.

You're banking on it happening like a true retard.

Screencapping this thread to laugh on Tuesday

user, this isnt about a 'No deal Brexit'.
This is about a short term intra-day trade on Tuesday to take advantage of the drop.

Sure if you're at BarCap you probably will care more about the quid over the next 3 months, and a if 'No deal' happens. But we're not investment banks.
Im only concerned with making money from Tuesday.

Please screencap this thread so I can show you my profit from Tuesday.

Do you think that May's deal will go through?
Labour are sure to vote against it and more than half of all Conservative backbenchers have stated that they will vote against it too.
Over 100 conservative MPs in total have come against May's deal.

I'm not betting that it will happen, and I consider it unlikely (10% chance at most, same with no Brexit). But I do know everyone will be losing their minds come Tuesday when the vote fails, and the pound /will/ drop. Big finance likes May's cuck deal.

For your record this is my balance presently.

Attached: accountIG.jpg (923x34, 13K)

Already priced in as the numbers don't add up

the market is flooded with dumb amateurs now though after the bitcoin hysteria

Some of it is priced in yes from the start of Dec we've seen it drop 175 pips.
I am predicting another at least another 200pips fall. But I will be happy to take 50 pips on Tuesday. The market will not stand still. Only institutional investors have take up positions already, there will still be intra-day trading.

>as the numbers don't add up
Also what numbers user?
Care to elaborate please.

thanks

>the market
What market?

Is whaleclub legit? Their cfd's are the closest thing to FX that I can access

>Already priced in
I'd agree with that. An easy way to tell is looking on the Betfair Exchange. The average punter is almost certain that the deal will fail, therefore mostly priced in at least.

>whaleclub legit
Are you an American tax payer?

>Betfair Exchange


Again, this is not about the Trade on tuesday
You're talking about politics and this doesnt affect the trade Tuesday.
The FX market is 100% speculation.
Only the big investment banks and liquidity providers have any clue as the volume and therefor the likelihood of something being 'priced in' and certainly not Bet fair when it comes to the bill failing Tuesday as to whether the GBPEUR is priced in already in reaction to the news.

While your comment is probably right, it's confusing to beginners reading this thread, but it has nothing to do with the trade or the fundamental news on that day which will move the markets.

Thanks.

You can trade Futures in the US or you can take a look at TD Amerittrades' -Think or Swim FX. Which allows US tax payers to trade derivatives if they live in one of the relevant States which allow it.

I would give Whale Club a miss.
I've got no regulatory information for them whatsover.

Although i'm a Brit I used to work for an American Bank, so I'm familiar with SEC regulatory compliance.

For US citizens look at TD Ameritrade for FX trading

>tdameritrade.com/education/account-types-and-investment-products/forex-currency-trading.page#3

Gentleman, I need to pop off for a while.
I will come back and try to monitor the thread periodically tomorrow too.

If you wish to say something in relation to politics or Brexit please do so on Jow Forums

***This thread is ONLY about an intra-day trading opportunity Tuesday, following the very likely failure of the first reading of UK's independence Bill. ***

I speculate that the GBPEUR will drop to 1.1050 (same price as on 5th September) over the course of next few days.

I have a minimum target of 50pips, but I think it will be safe to let this ride much further.

If we get 200pips from this, the price will be 1.0972 which was the same as it dropped to August 28th when Philip Hammond said a 'No deal' would cost £80bn in extra borrowing and inhibit long-term economic growth. and Theresa May countered this by saying a no deal Brexit would NOT be the "end of the world".


>theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/28/theresa-may-says-a-no-deal-brexit-wouldnt-be-the-end-of-the-world

Attached: StandardLot.jpg (241x339, 23K)

pic margin costs for a mini lot in euros

Mini lot:
>€372euros margin requirement
>results in €1 a pip.
>200pips x €1 = €200
total return €572

Standard lot (previous pic).
>€3,720 margin requirement
>results in €10 a pip
>200pips x €10 = €2,000
total return €5720

Attached: miniLot.jpg (252x347, 23K)

What size are you taking?

I'm thinking of taking half a standard lot if it starts to recover overnight/into tomorrow.

I've got just over 20k in there, I'll take a standard lot short position tomorrow during the London morning depending on how the market opens, I've got some UK equities to watch too.
I'll probably let that run over a few days.

Tuesday, I will just snipe throughout the day when the RSI shows it's over bought. and close within minutes of them being open just picking up 3 to 5pips here and there.

Either way, I see no certainty coming from Tuesday which will cement a bearish sentiment; so even if I have to wait a little longer I think it'll work out.

I only do about 5 to 6 FX spot trades a year give or take to keep the drawdown low and usually only when there's an obvious correlation or expectation in the market.
Normally I trade the cable or fiber.
I did have a decent trade on the USDTRY which earlier in the year which I did really well on.

Complete portfolio I aim for the moon at 30%.
With derivatives the temptation is to stay at the 'table', but you end up killing your drawdown.
This year hasnt been great, i'm around 9% up, so hopefully these end of year derivative trades will be a good boost.

Holy shit, you mean you do all of this hyper autistic bullshit analysis and get 9 fucking percent in a year?

I cleared that within the first few weeks of 2018 shorting bitcoin.

Nothing more pathetic than these "pro" larpers who try to status signal online with these posts. You're a stupid baby dressed up in your dad's business suit.

>9% is good going.

9% is a solid return.
Cryto speculation has made lots of people like you have unrealistic expectations.

>pro larper
yep, you got me, I pro larped for a US bank offering wealth management in the UK (which no longer exists) and for two other private equity firms.

>I cleared that within the first few weeks of 2018 shorting bitcoin.

In Futures?

That's amazing you were shorting BTC before the contracts had even existed!!!
You might want to revise that date, before you blag it, considering the expiration of the contracts.

>You're a stupid baby dressed up in your dad's business suit.

Go back Jow Forums user.
You've embarrassed yourself here.