What's up guys. I'm a second year associate at cumberland mining and I've been trading crypto since '13...

Cool thanks. What’s your team’s outlook like for 2019 in general ?

what's your near-term outlook on btc and why?

>the efficient market hypothesis can proven
It can't though.

Sure! so the efficient market hypothesis (semi-strong form) says prices reflect all publicly available information. Academics use this as a chance to say "so you can't use past prices to predict future returns!" one you dive in, this is a little disingenuous. If prices reflect all available information, then they should only move on new information, the flow of new information is random. so thinking of prices as a function of random inputs can be modeled as a martingale. Martingales have a fixed autocorrelation over time, so the internal logic doesn't make much sense until you dive down into it.

2019 is a pretty bearish outlook, path of least resistance for the lt trend is down. On the upside, the intersection of broader market fundamentals and bitcoin technicals may help. If liquidity continues to dry up as credit markets tighten, we may see something of a short squeeze as bears liquidate positions to service other liabilities.

by proving it you disprove it, that's the interesting part!

I like your thought on it, but efficient market is debunked, not worth taking seriously imho.
Funny that you guys are having a "slow week", and low volume!
That hasnt been my experience :)

I'm not so sure I'd say debunked, the implied normality of price movements in CAPM is definitely false and markets have, during certain periods, high degrees of autocorrelation and correlated error terms. At the same time, there's no real way to parse what's risk premium and what's behavioral mispricing without much more and much more granular data than we currently have. Confusing everything is that the market pretty much always clears, so the price you're being quoted, if it's market price, is fair at time of quote.

My overall view (no evidence), markets are efficiently inefficient. there exists a certain amount of mispricing to compensate everyone that shows up to set prices!

I like buffet-sama's reduction -- if markets were truly efficient investors wouldn't exist!

more like CUMLAND mining haha am I right

yes

how did you get your job OP. prior work experience in markets? degree in CS?

What sort of clientele do you serve? What size orders do you fill for them (minimums?) and what premium do you take? Are you still a mining operation or strictly a 'dealer'? What liquidity pools do you use, do you have access to any that are unavailable for filthy retail traders? When you buy or sell, is it strictly dollar pairs, or do you trade btc pairs as well? What coins besides eth and btc do you deal in?

Also you reminded me of good times: I used to buy bitcoin with cash for a 5% premium from a prodigiously active localbtc lady who would rebuy in huge chunks through cumberland. She got in around 2011 and became wealthy, but she just liked to talk abouy crypto and hang out with like-minded folks so she posted her phone number in her localbtc profile and sold bitcoin face to face with no escrow. She was such a cool fuckin lady, thanks for reminding me.

started off studying Civil Engineering of all things, absolutely hated it, switched to stats around the same time the early/wholesome fun bitcoin memes were going on. Ended up doing some undergrad research with a professor of mine who was trying to build a model for assessing transaction costs in illiquid markets. From there worked for a startup that tanked/started liking biz more than pol as all the [major and school/suck 100 dicks at $1per dick/dropshipping] threads were replaced by crypto. Then ended up interviewing for and ultimately getting my job at Cumberland after my friend who worked at DRW (not doing crypto) recommended i should.

would i get hired at the best crypto trading firms if i prove 1000x since jan 18? i think i may actually be the best trader but extremely autistic. never lost money on over 2000 trades. if i could prove it would they hire me on merit or do i go thru the normal screening

You don't hold any link, but do you think it has value? Just curious about your opinion

exclusively SEC accredited investors. $100k minimum is the quoted minimum block, but for regular clients it's not hard and fast. premium depends on crypto and fiat leg, and exotic OTC pair is going to quote way wider than btc/usd. In general a good rule of thumb for us on volume is current spread widened out by 2 or 3 percentage points. I'm strictly on the dealer size. We use the same liquidity pools retail traders use+CME/CBOE for some stuff, mostly hedging+block counterparties that largely/only transact otc. pretty much any major crypto-crypto pair, most of the popular crypto-usd pairs, and from there we can turn it into any crypto-fiat pair by just adding an fx transaction. LTC, XRP, BCH, BTG, XLM, and USDT are other ones we get decent volume in.

Those were the glory days man. Peak memes and everyone basically just hanging out and talking about this cool thing no one understood.

do you have an audited trade record? unironically interested.

I think link is basically just bitcoin beta at a lower market cap

i should clarify i mean block transactions not blockchain

no but lets say i did get audited proof. do i have to change my apperance and mannerisms to be considered or would a 1000x basement autist with intense neurosis still appeal. i do not smell badly. i stay very clean

bump