In terms of severity will the next recession be more on the lines of 2000 or 2008?

it's worse, it will be 476 all over again

Honestly, there may not be a crash as in a sudden decline, but more of a long bleed down, which I kind of equated. But still a crash becomes somewhat likely as soon as the whole system is called into question.

It looks like the easy monetary policies are not sustainable unless you're willing to accept massive inflation, so they may need to be capped.

This can lead to a recession and will probably default many "zombie corporations" that cling to unsustainable business models that can only survive due to low interest rates. Stocks, real estate, bonds and other assets that were pumped up artificially by easy money also need to drop much further.

As a result of evaporating value in assets, corporate defaults and higher unemployment rates, a recession and deflationary spiral becomes somewhat likely, and it won't take long before banks run into problems and the whole banking system runs into a trust crisis as it did around the Lehman crisis of 2008, at which point fear of a systemic collapse will return and we may see a drying inter-bank lending market and loans in generals, bank runs and an accelerated decline.

This time it's less likely that colossal bailout packages can be used to push the problem away again. If systemic banks collapse a chain reaction could occur and that, or the the of it, could cause a stock crash, though at that point it will probably have bled quite a bit already.

STOP IT

now that would be something

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We are levered up much more than 2008, and indicies have dropped >20% in

Way worse
Society will collapse. Buy guns. At the very least if things get too bad you can put a bullet in your head and be spared a horrible death//rape at the hands of the packs of barbarians that will raid everything.

there's little further government intervention remaining to stimulate the economy. Is worse than 2008.

Much worse, if it happens, people in 2008 had free flowing cash and it was the housing market that burst, sure people had trouble getting credit E.G. credit crunch but when the markets fall that's going to affect the big buisnesses and the employers, fuck maybe even 401K's if they have assets that are risky attached to them.

People nowadays are unprepared for a crunch even like 2008 20xx will be much worse the market is volatile to sudden insecurity with oil and with politics and we're in a very unstable time tensions are the highest I've ever seen in America. If I were to put money on it I'd bet on a civil war in America, followed by if not preceeding the death of Trump (notice I said death and not assassination) he's an old man and old men die best at inconvenient times.

when you say a long bleed down, do you mean the Japanese-type bleeding?

I meant long as in 1-2 years, as opposed to a massive single-day drop (though like I said that could still happen later).

Most analysts predict a recession for 2020 at the latest in the US, Europe may be earlier, and prices will probably develop accordingly. There are also the 2020 elections that could incentivize the Fed to keep raising rates as a political measure.

Oh.
Yep, shit.

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This will be the buggest crash in history. If u understood the 2008 crash then u should know the recovery was superical and the banking system has already been hollowed out.

>not joining the barbarian raiders

You’re not gonna make it

German bank already is in a lot of problems.just look at the sock price over the last 10 years!

fuck buying gold, buy canned water and rifle ammunition

>deflationary spiral becomes somewhat likely

Nice, I'll be able to get a hotdog for a nickel, just like my grandpa.

Fun fact: Did you know that when your grandparents were kids they didn't hear similar stories about inflation from their grandparents? That's because over the course of their grandparents' lives, the value of money actually went up. What could be bought for 15c in 1800 could be bought for 10c in 1912.

In 1913, the Federal Reserve was founded. The dollar has since lost, what, over 95% of its value? Trust the "adults in the room" though. They clearly know what they're doing.

Also, enjoy the football game and your beer.

>canned water
also buy canned blankets in case you get cold.
the fuck is canned water

whyd the market break down this is just a healthy correction you guys scream this even if it does a 1% drop you dang knobheads

canned water lasts for 30+ years but plastic will leech into the water eventually

Way ahead of you, I've prepped by building a small water canning shop near a small spring. Just set up a small forge for aluminum and you can roll your own cans if you have your own press. Even easier, just start collecting cans and lids, and you can puddle them back together.

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Fucking kek

>there's little further government intervention remaining to stimulate the economy. Is worse than 2008.
Second New Deal, anyone? That's the only possible solution.

Who here remembers Cash for Clunkers?

New deal didn't do shit the first time around, the second world war did. We need a new war.

>not going for the dehydrated water
It's like dehydrated milk but better

Does this mean Hitler will finally reappear?

Yes. Day of the Rope draws near. Relish these times my friends, for our time has come.

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2008 was just a retest of the inflation adjusted 2000 high

Tfw can't get water without using older, probably spoiled water

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It will be the Second Great Depression. Thanks to global warming, we'll even have another Dust Bowl.

You seem to have missed his point, chief.

i trust them more than you

this

a lot of average ppl and boomers will lose their retirement n 401k money

asset prices will start going down, the value of dollar will go down even more.

people who live month to month basis with car loans mortgages will get fucked in the ass after their homes will literally lose 50% value in a year while their mortgage payments will stay the same

fed will pull a similar move that they did in 2008, their criminal friends will get helped out, average ppl will get even more fucked

world economy's circulation will slow down, depression will occur

debt will become unmanageable

many companies will downsize or go out of business

people already in thousands of debt will lose their homes, jobs, and wont be able to afford living anymore

nights will get cold, they'll get hungry. cant afford food

lootings and civil war will happen. order will be lost, chaos will ensue

people in power will watch this go down and whil e people are killing each other on the streets they'll collect every valuable asset there is.

not only you, but many generations to come will live on as debt slaves with terrible living conditions.

us will by far take the biggest hit with their uncontrollable debt to gdp ratio along with terrible gun laws. considering US has the best living standards shit will get real bad real quick.

venezuela bad, think about having to go to a black market for bread.

only chance of survival will be a revolution based on love and empathy, helping one and another

who are we kidding, peoples tramble each other over a flat screen tv on black friday

human race will be run.

---

honestly we deserved it. not even sad if we go extinct at this point. which we wont, but id be happy if we did.

if we consider earth as an organism, like a human, humans on earth would be the virus, we are a disease.

uncontrollable breeding, no care for anything else than ourselves, destroy everything for own well being.

lets get it over with

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Sup TAnon, how are the shitcoins doing lately? Also I thought ETH was going to 170? Kek

enjoy life while u can biz

youtube.com/watch?v=3TSz30Nj2n4

We are more leveraged faggot except the leverage is on government, fed, and business balance sheets.

Household debt may be lower, but thats about it.

Deflation is not a bad thing, sometimes it is just a symptom of a recession, not the cause. We can have deflation in good times too.
The real reason why we have inflation and "inflation is good" bullshit propaganda is that deficit spending by governments must be paid somehow. Inflation tax.
We have deficit spending because the people demand "free" shit. "give me free this and free that".
Eventually you run out of other peoples money...

we're fucked right now. we're truly fucked if any resemblance of layoffs starts up. if no job losses, meh, we'll pull through

Banks are less leveraged, companies and households are more leveraged

most retarded thing

The US still experienced intense deflation in the great depression despite the Fed. Deflation only really ceased to be a thing after the end of ww2 and later breton woods.

In the gold standard period inflation and deflation rates were quite severe and while they canceled each other out over time there was quite a lot of price volatility and menu prices were higher as a result. It also meant more power to creditors since interest rates were far higher than long term inflation when compared to today.

The dollar loosing value actually helps debt become more manageable since it means it takes less value in real terms to pay off old debts, which are usually in nominal terms.

deflation is really bad for anyone with debt

>sign contract agreeing to pay back $1000
>deflation sets in
>dollar purchasing power goes up
>prices and wages go down nominally
>get paid less nominally for all your productive efforts
>still owe $1000 nominally
>deflation is good for nominal debt :)

The dollar loosing value is inflation user, that was my whole point. Inflation means that it takes more dollar to buy the same thing, hence it is worth less. Inflation helps people with debt in nominal terms.

2000 most likely

The US government will never be able to pay back its debts and neither will the US public. Currency devaluation won't help with that until hyperinflation sets in, and by then the dollar won't be a unit of account anymore

The 2000 crash only affected the tech bubble

What were seeing now is everything from the DOW Jones to the NASDAQ to the S&P seeing their worst losses since the Great Recession.
I honestly don't know what were entering and how the Fed can possibly put a spin on this like they did with prior crashes

For the market? '08. For the common people? Neither, this is a trade war for basic goods, people won't be kicked out of their homes en masse.

i understand. you were talking about deflation in your reply somewhere and i thought that was what your were referring to.

We're going to see downward dips in multiple major markets but nothing catastrophic; it'll baseline, more or less.

well see the tricky shit here is low-debt companies, companies with very high ROE are all down too. that makes no fucking sense if we're to believe the downturn is overleveraged, overvalued companies. also, companies with debt already and no big plans for the next year or two really shouldnt be affected either, its not like business loans are variable rates, especially for billion dollar companies.

fucking MGM said a year ago that they will not redevelop, purchase, or do new builds for at least three years probably five. still down.

Some debt simply isnt paid back. If the original loan upon which the bank of England was founded was paid back the entire British economy would collapse. The current US monetary system is backed by the fact that the US has and thus treasury bonds. If the us never had any deficits it would cause a huge problem.

That said, obviously debt can grow unsustainably to the point u can no longer meet interest payments. The US isnt really at that point, altho recent tax cuts havent really helped the matter.

Mild inflation does help, it means revenues are always increasing in monetary terms. Inflation has been higher than the interest rates on t bonds for most of the post crisis period, for example.

It will be a Depression. Hedge yourself with Bitcoin
youtu.be/y1DSVIVsNIY

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>Great Depression
>the difference is degenerates, niggers, spics and all kinds of filth riddle USA
This is going to be much different than the 1930s, this could become a bloodbath very quickly. See hurricane aftermath for reference

>house buying collapses
>car buying collapses
>economy starts grinding to a halt
>meh, it looks like there won't be any layoffs
uhhhh...

God I hope so. The world needs a reset.

>Mild inflation does help
I agree with you, but only if it's done in a trustless and transparent way. The Fed is neither, and quite frankly the government (who creates the deficit) is not a good substitute. You should also consider that a system of deflationary currency is a legitimate alternative to a Keynesian economy.

I'm in vanguard. I'm used to checking my positions once or twice a month.

Fucking hell this downturn came on fast and strong.

so far, housing has collapsed. its at stable levels, which isnt collapsing. car sales appear to be down from 17.5M last year to 17.2M this year, and up around 3M from 5 years ago. car sales are fucking stable, not crashing. no layoffs yet. youre all what-ifs, and while reasonable fears right now are fine, yours are the absolute worst.

now is not the time for fear. that might come later.

fuck debtors desu
in a deflationary economy they would be more encouraged to save their money and spend it when they actually have enough instead of the whole economy being weaved out of shittty ass loans

It will be worse than 536

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535–536

>only chance of survival will be a revolution based on love and empathy, helping one and another
unironically laughed
you fucking faggot are definitely not going to make it in your own futuristic scenario

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ahahaah and you're the fucking idiot TA user aswell. yeah, that fits.
reddit-spacing, reddit-tier "philosophy", typical NPC-phrases such as "humanity is a virus" and your TA threads are almost always garbage.
>honestly we deserved it
speak for yourself you fucking spastic. i agree that you probably do.

Let's finish what was once started

have u ever flown over a condensed city?

shit looks like mold or a tumor

Human impact on the environment or anthropogenic impact on the environment includes changes to biophysical environments and ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources caused directly or indirectly by humans, including global warming, environmental degradation (such as ocean acidification), mass extinction and biodiversity loss,ecological crisis, and ecological collapse. Modifying the environment to fit the needs of society is causing severe effects, which become worse as the problem of human overpopulation continues. Some human activities that cause damage (either directly or indirectly) to the environment on a global scale include human reproduction, overconsumption, overexploitation, pollution, and deforestation, to name but a few. Some of the problems, including global warming and biodiversity loss pose an existential risk to the human race

why am i even wasting my time, a person with a shitty attitude like you is the problem anyway

is there a single thread where you don't call someone a "spastic"? whatever the fuck that means

Tbf he did say that wasn't going to happen. So it's an unrealistic pipe dream. At least read the rest of the post before flaming.

You're not wrong but you don't get the underlying cause of all this, read Kaczynski, you'll like it.

Gus Speth, a US advisor on climate change said:

“I used to think that top environmental problems were biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and climate change. I thought that thirty years of good science could address these problems. I was wrong. The top environmental problems are selfishness, greed and apathy, and to deal with these we need a cultural and spiritual transformation. And we scientists don’t know how to do that.”

>shit looks like mold or a tumor
that is *your* depressed mind making assumptions based on the depressing images/ideas that it is filled with.
i think condensed cities look fascinating.
the problem here is that you are a fucking narcissist - evident by the fact that you spam your laughable 5min candle TA crap threads as if they were requested by a nonexisting community here, and the fact that you seem to believe that everyone shares your depression and misanthropy and that there is anything objective to it (solipsism/lack of empathy).
if you hate yourself so much (i hardly doubt you hate others as much as you claim, its probably envy, unfulfilled greed etc., isn't it?), start working on your own flaws you hypocrite.
how dare you even insinuate that "others" are "the problem" when the main thing you seem to do is to attempt to extract monetary value from others without HONEST WORK?
are you that fucking blind? you boast about how much money you made doing your fucking meme lines, you seek approval from anonymous strangers like a depraved asperger NEET for trying to leech off of society as much as possible and then have the audacity to also claim moral high ground?
on some level i seriously hope doomsday-screamers like you will be right, because you honestly need a fucking lesson - and a mirror.

US would be the best place to be if the global economies crash I can guarantee you that. US is the only western country in history that has gone through chaos but come out stronger while others have collapsed and became some new country, never recovered, or fell out of global politics relevancy.

Meant to reply to this one

>The top environmental problems are selfishness, greed and apathy
says the financial manipulator. kys

Whoa that's deep bro

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No recession.
Everyone is cashing out now to take advantage of Trump taxes. Funds will wait for the bottom and buy it all back in January, and sell again by December 19. Will happen yearly until 2021 when Michelle Obama raises capital gains taxes again.

You know? I'm any moment before 1990 I would say: dumb faggot... But you're right

Now the economy will crash without survivors, and don't forget about the climactic change and all the shit in the current society.

maybe, also has the highest gun to person ratio

The U.S. has 88.8 guns for every 100 residents

second highest is yemen with 50

you are projecting. im not a narcissist, i have nothing to gain from sharing charts and my trades that i find interesting. i dont give out financial advise or shill coins, i surely dont hate myself nor in depression ever since i met psychedelics.

i dont think single persons are the problem, i think the whole mentality of the human race is. we are all one huge family, yet we are divided by stupid topics like race money and religion. i dont boast the money i made off of trading, or consider that the true wealth in my life. ive mentioned in my previous threads that unfortunately one mans win is one mans loss in trading and that i disliked it for that reason. its maybe not the most useful job working for the progress of human race, but i believe i do that what i can in my spare time. i regularly donate to charities that i think are truly helpful, covered medical costs for some of my friends who couldnt afford.

i dont care about approval, especially not from an anonymous forum with people whom ill never be able to see the faces of.

i never said i hated anyone or anybody. i dont hate. i just pointed out the similarities that i see of what a virus does to a living beings body to what we've done to earth. i think this is an objective view. also i am not only empathetic, but aware that all i am is empathy.

but i can truly feel the hate and anger you have in your posts.

Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned.

i hope the best for you

i dont manipulate anything, i just have the ability to see opportunities where i can buy low and sell high. i dont make anyone buy, or sell. i have no control.

You write like a fag

>I am aware that all I am is empathy

Lmao @ your life

Bro nobody is going to be shooting each other, there is not gonna be a civil war. Maybe looting but would probably be from big stores and chains. You doomsday fags that always think the world is going to end need to fuck off.

world isnt going to end, humanity is.

youtube.com/watch?v=EjmtSkl53h4

ty

>i have nothing to gain from sharing charts and my trades that i find interesting.
riiiight, you post as a tripfag and make daily threads because you totally don't need any attention whatsoever. got it.
>i dont think single persons are the problem, i think the whole mentality of the human race is
that doesn't make any sense whatsoever, since many people have completely different mentalities. you are fucked in the head, m8. how can you effortlessly confuse individuals and the entirety of the human race in a single sentence?
>all i am is empathy
one too many shroom trips, aye?
yeah i get it: you're basically jesus. you *totally* experienced pure ego death on those shrooms, left us mortals behind and became something purely altruistic - well good for you mr. fancypants, gifting us so much by extracting money with financial instruments while us morally corrupt morlocks go to fucking WORK - but hey: you give to charity aswell, as the altruist that you are :-)

>but i can truly feel the hate and anger you have in your posts
who's projecting now, yoda? i am calling out a ridiculous hypocrite here. you moan about greed, yet you are a financial trader. you moan about apathy, yet call human cities "mold- and virus-like". how fucking dense do you have to be to not see that contradiction? if you were so fucking morally ahead, you'd give up something you find fascinating because of its clear moral flaw.
>Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned.
where do you get these calendar mottos from? some fucking anime? rick&morty? holy fucking cringe
nobody mistakes this crap for wisdom you insanely autistic redditor

i didnt want to tripfag, some anons asked for it to find the threads so i did. i forgot to delete it before i posted in this thread. like i said before, i just wanted to help some anons cause theyre constantly losing money in markets and think ta is a good way to get better at that. if you think i am making the threads for attention i cant change ur mind

you clearly think theres some moral altruism in working for a company that will never, ever truly care about you. i was never a big a fan of money, and never will, but noticed at an early age that ill have to work 9-5 at a cubicle unless i find a way to make a living the way i want to. if you consider that selfishness, so be it.

i am fucked in the head. on one of my shroom trips i thought i was going crazy and had a panic attack, only to understand that i already was crazy and was coming to a realization. you'd have to be crazy to work 9-5 relentlessly so ur boss can buy himself a new dodge charger, which i was doing at the time

i get that you dont get phased by my spiritual shit, not much i can say there. i am at peace with myself and the universe. some more hippie yadayada for you

i havent projected, you said that i was full of hate and narcissism but im really getting the sense that it is you with those feelings.

i think greed is a mental contagious disease and it has spread all over the world, and as ive mentioned earlier if u find it selfish that ive found a way to live life the way i want to, then u can also consider me greedy. i cant change the world, or you, and im not willing to waste this life i live in the human body as a corporate slave. i think i am good at trading and wanted to help some anons, like i said before im not telling them to buy some 1mil marketcap coin with 10k 24h volume that ive bought before.

dunno why u so mad tho

People who spout against greed are greedy themselves because they want others to give them shit for free.
There is nothing wrong with wanting a better life.

>you clearly think theres some moral altruism in working for a company that will never, ever truly care about you.
you are not "working for company", you are doing something that has to be done IN AND FOR THAT SOCIETY.
and no, giving to charity isn't comparable, either. the most valuable thing in life is your TIME. sitting in front of your fucking PC and making a wire transfer to a charity so someone else can give out soup to smelly, diseased homeless is not the same as doing it yourself.
keep your fucking money and volunteer if you want to claim moral superiority, because what you're doing is simply a different form of employment - you are paying someone else to do something that seems to be either too much to ask for or too far below you.
>i havent projected, you said that i was full of hate and narcissism
you said that when you look at a human city, it looks to you like mold or a virus. you are clearly against life and society as a whole, and what i am trying to get into that dense fucking head of yours is that this very idea doesn't stem from an objective problem outside, but from your inside.
other people don't hate society, hence they don't see sickness (a virus) when they look at a skyline. it's a very unusual and extremely negative association and speaks a lot about your relationship with others.
>i think greed is a mental contagious disease
its nothing more or less than basic animal behavior. every elk, every bluebottle, every lion is insanely greedy, because that is almost always the best strategy to pass on your genes. human is not only not as greedy as animals, man is literally the only animal with a meta-level (a mind) capable of vetoing it for abstract reasons. we aren't diseased, we simply aren't perfect (yet).
>dunno why u so mad tho
because you possess one of the most infuriating combinations of traits that exist: arrogance combined with false enlightenment.

empathy, by the way - just like greed - is the expression of a strategy via animal instincts. it has been scientifically proven that the more alpha you are, the less empathetic you are. why? because empathy is required in order to cooperate properly, and cooperation is only required when total domination is out of the question.
in other words: in your false enlightenment you are idolizing an ANIMAL INSTINCT. are you into new age stuff aswell?

i see literally no difference between idolizing empathy and any other emotion/instinct.
what you actually did when you came out of that shroom-indulged mental chaos was cling to some form of hyperfemininity or feeling of capitulation and IDOLIZED it. all empathy is very closely related to low perceived social status.

>you'd have to be crazy to work 9-5 relentlessly so ur boss can buy himself a new dodge charger, which i was doing at the time
so in other words: you can't stomach others having more than you, that is the very definition of envy. you can't be asked to work in a shitty environment and would like others to do that in your place instead, that is ego/narcissism ("better them than me").

you are not enlightened or especially moral - you honestly come off as a typical NPC redditor who simply took to many shrooms.

>he doesn't know what a debt deflation event is
I suppose that's understandable though, most people alive have never experienced one. Most of our grandparents and great-grandparents hated debt, we're soon to find out why.

user stop, he might kill himself if you blow him out even further

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Man I sure am glad I was born in time to see a collapsing economy struggle under the weight of ecological catastrophe and peak oil

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It's just starting to unravel. 2008 was just papered over, there are underlying problems with the economy that have not been resolved.

I predict a soviet union like collapse, even Greenspan talks about deflation.

Yeah, it's not the 'housing market' but everything else.

Buying your own stock is not economic growth. It used to be illegal.

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