How long till link breaks $1?

>given that you chose a gold speck
this means its only two boxes you might have picked. so 50%
the given is a certain event. if you want to separate it in two events its 1*1/2=1/2

the answer is:
y = number of reachable silve specks in the mixed box
x = 1/2 + 1/y

considering y approaches inifiity, depending on the speck size and box size then x = 1/2

Ladies and gentlemen: biz

That's mathematics son.

>durrrrr but that's not the intuitive answer! It feels wrong if you're not paying attention!

THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING THE SINGLE GRAIN OF GOLD FROM THE SILVER BOX IS IRRELEVANT BECAUSE IT'S GIVEN AS PART OF THE P R O B L E M

actually sorry, i see it says you chose a spec at random, then the answer is x approaches 100% since the probability of choosing a gold spec from mixedbox is infinitely small therefore it's box 1 for sure

don't worry, dont feel bad about being wrong. you probably just didn't read the question properly.

you role two dices, both comes up as 6s, what is the probability of that happening?

THE PROBABILITY OF ROLLING 6S IS IRRELEVANT BECAUSE IT'S GIVEN AS PART OF THE P R O B L E M

The "random box and random speck" language is meant to confuse you into thinking it's part of the problem even though it is not.

You are dumb and bad at reading comprehension.

>given that you chose a gold speck
>GIVEN
>G I V E N
"Given that you roll two sixes, what are the chances that you roll two sixes?"

This is either bait or you guys are in high school. Eventually you’ll learn that isn’t how probability works, it’s like people who say “the odds of winning the lottery are 50:50, you either win or you don’t” which is a similar but different fallacy.

The fact that it is given that you have already taken a speck is totally irrelevant, statistical models are meant to represent reality, in reality there is no supreme deity conferring something as being a “given”, there are a billion scenarios of the gold coming from the first box and a single scenario of it coming from the second box.

>That's mathematics son.
Kill yourself. Your reasoning has absolutely no mathematical rigor.

If you wanna go full mathematical, then you have to start from the set of elementary events - which are particular specks of dust picked. Since you pick the box at random and pick a speck at random, the chance of picking any particular speck from any box is equal, more precisely 1/(3*N), where N is the number of dust specks in each box (assuming all three have the same number of specks).

There are N specks of dust in the first box for which the rest of the box would be gold, and only 1 speck of dust for which it would not.
So the probability of the rest of the box being gold is N/(N+1). As the number of dust specks approaches infinity, the probability approaches 1 = 100%.

This is the ultimate turing test. Ais and autists answer correctly, most people answer 50% or some weird answer like 1/3.
It's fine in the end, because autists prefer ais to humans anyway.

>The fact that it is given that you have already taken a speck is totally irrelevant,
No it is not, because it excludes the 99999/100000 probabilities where you chose a silver speck from the middle box.

Please go to your local community college and take a mathematics course

EOY 2019 if we break bear.

alright, if you are going to call me dumb, i'm going to belittle your intelligence for being wrong then.

i know that it makes no difference whether it says at random or not.

>ince you pick the box at random and pick a speck at random, the chance of picking any particular speck from any box is
Irrelevant, because it is GUARANTEED THAT YOU PICKED A GOLD SPECK FROM AN UNSPECIFIED BOX. THAT ALREADY PRECLUDES EVERY POSSIBILITY THAT YOU PICKED A SILVER SPECK HOLY SHIT YOU ARE DUMB

There are billions on gold specks in the first box, and one speck in the second box.

If you see these gold specks as one single set of specks, what are your odds of drawing the single speck that belongs to the second box? What are the odds you draw one that belongs to the first box?

The answer is: the odds are 99.99999999% it belongs to the first box, so you can be 99.99999999% sure the rest of the box is also gold.

lmao.

Given is one thing
If is another

a)If you chose a gold speck, what is the probability that the rest of the box is gold
b)Given you chose a gold speck, what is the probability that the rest of the box is gold
Two different questions, two different answers.

So you agree that the probability of the first event is irrelevant because it has already happened, yet you insist that it still affects the probability because...?

Try and visualize the problem; imaging you have three boxes in front of you, and you reach down into one of them and take up a Gold speck.
What is the odds that the rest of the box is filled with gold?

If your answer is still 50/50, then imagine repeating the "experiment" a 100 times, would you still argue that 50% of the times you pull up a gold speck the box is filled with silver?

i don't think it still affects the probability. you can just completely ignore the writing on the top and the answer is just below 100%.

To return to the dicerolling metaphor, consider:

"You randomly roll two random 1d6 dice, randomly. The first die comes up 6. What are the chances you roll two sixes?" The answer is 1 in 6, even though the odds of rolling two sixes is 1 in 36, because the first event has already happened, and is given as part of the problem.

It seems like you're factoring in the probability of you picking the gold speck from the second box. Again, this remote probability is irrelevant to the problem.

This and the guys saying almost 100%
You have to be retarded to come to any other conclusion

okay well the answer is merely 100% then which you for some reason don't agree with.

This is a bad analogy because user is saying for the given event to occur then that would necessarily preclude a lot of other possibilities.

If I pulled a gold speck then I could not have possibly picked from box three.

Anyway, I'm a brainlet biz major so carry on.

You have three boxes, if you reach down into one of the boxes at random and pull out a speck - the odds of that speck being gold is around 1/3.
Now the problem state that this is the scenario, that you have pulled out a speck of gold.
That is what is given, it is removing the times where you pull out a silver speck.

In this case (which is the stated problem) what is the odds of the rest of the box being filled with gold?
Again try and play it out in your head, where you repeat the procedure again and again. Would you expect that 50% of the times you pull out a gold speck, that the rest of the box is filled with Silver?

>insist that you're right repeatedly without any arguments or refutation
Burger education

Why the fuck is this an argument good fucking god
Its 50% you fucking idiots christ

hint: read the question 3 more times. slowly.

The number of gold specks in each box is irrelevant at the start of the experiment.

In this scenario it is implied that if you reached into the box with only one gold spec as opposed to the one with a million you are guaranteed to grab that one spec. That's how the question begins there is absolutely no reality where you reach in and get anything other than gold before the question begins.

It literally confirms nothing if you reach in and get a gold spec the likelihood that the rest of the box is gold or silver is exactly the same.

Brainlet here but I'm beginning to think the answer might be closer to 100%

see my fucking dissertation on this problem..

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Yes.

It is the same if you reduce the problem to two specks in each box.

Nearly 50%, but weighed slightly in the favor of silver boxes (added chance is 1/N, N=number of silver specks in that particular silver box with 1 gold speck).

Sorry, I don't proofread my posts. It's nearly 100% chance, not 50% (and is far from 1/3).

Jow Forums math threads are the fucking best

Imagine that you go into a funfair, and I am standing there as a Carny with three see-through boxes, so you can see that there is gold and dirt specks in them, like there is in the picture (I've just replaced the Silver specks with dirt specks).
I put a blanket over them and shuffle them around, and ask you to pick one of the boxes and take out a speck.
You do this, and the speck is gold.

I then offer you to buy the two other boxes with the stated value that there is a 50% chance that one of the boxes contains 100% gold specks.

Would you accept the transaction?

You choose a box with a golden speck
you pick a "random" speck and it's gold (this is not chance driven).
A single golden speck from goldbox has the same chance of being picked as the single golden speck in silverbox. The only choice you made is to choose between two boxes ergo the possibility that the rest of the box is gold is 50%

You're shoe horning in a third box in your hypothetical to fuck with us. It is unequivocal to the OP.

> A single golden speck from goldbox has the same chance of being picked as the single golden speck in silverbox.
No. The odds are nearly the opposite.

I suddenly understand all the biz threads about not being able to get a job

okay.. then try and imagine this: you are so retarded that you are no longer considered human, but instead a squirrel - a retarded squirrel.
..and you have an acorn, and i give you an acorn, how many acorns does you (the retarded squirrel) have?

If this is to difficult to conceptualize for your little mind.. imagine this, you are so stupid, that nothing i say makes any sense, and nothing anyone says to you make sense, instead you live in your own little retarded world, where nothing make sense either.. What is the odds of you being a fucking retarded, given the fact that you are retarded !?

99%+

Guys. I need to know when will link breach $1

Every single speck has the same. Ofc that does not nean odds of getting a gold speck are the same. Pretty sure the other guy is trolling desu.

kek

Riddle user here. 2/2. ea ls ut in al ce.

Again brainlet here, but Google helped me out a bit. Look up bertrands paradox on wiki and then bayes theorem on mathematics stack exchange.

again, Q4 2019, if you're lucky.

99.9(..)9%

>Again brainlet here
we know this, we can read you post..

3 years if we are lucky. I am a linkmarine too. sadly this is the truth user. crypto is over for a while.

what the fuck are you talking about?

>No it is not, because it excludes the 99999/100000 probabilities where you chose a silver speck from the middle box.
Bingo

watch?v=CGMc8B60ZpU

99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%

Read the question in the OP again. Slowly. Then read it another time. Focus on "G I V E N"

0%

The boxes are make of black lines, not gold.

half.
anyone who thinks otherwise is autistic, retarded or both

Picking a random speck of dust
Given that you chose

This math task is intentionally poorly worded. Picking at random and chosing are different events.

It bugs me that this is the only correct answer yet retarded anons keep saying it's not.

The question says "GIVEN THAT YOU CHOSE A GOLD SPECK".

GIVEN THAT
GIVEN
GIVEN
GIVEN
GIVEN

GIVEN
I
V
E
N

This immediately means you didn't stick your hand in C. So the probability that you picked box C is ZERO.

This means that you either picked box A or B. You cannot have picked C because if you had, you wouldn't have a fucking piece of gold on your hand right now! So C shouldn't even be in the calculations.

Now, in order to know which box you're fondling (A or B), you only need to know if the next particle you pick up is gold or not.

The probability of getting a gold speck next is equal to the proportion of gold specks vs total specks in the remaining boxes. REMEMBER, YOU ALREADY PICKED THE FIRST SPECK.

IT IS 1/2

For brainlets, this is a variation of betrands box paradox with essentially infinite coins in each box instead of two coins each. The probability is basically 0.9999

let 'x' be # of gold specks in 1st box
probability would be
x / x+1

You pick a gold speck out of a box.
You have to pick another one out of the same box and bet all your money on the colour it will be. What colour do you choose?

If you randomly pick a speckle from one of the three boxes, there is a 1/3 chance that you have picked a gold speckle - Given that this is the case (that you have picked a gold speckle), what is the odds that the rest of the box you picked it from is the gold box.

That is what is "Given".. It is the scenario where you have picked a gold speckle at random.
you negate that the specks are picked at random.

I fucking hate all of you.

the ultimate brainlet friendly answer

wrong, the box can only be opened in a certain way. You can never pick from the middle. This means that the probability of picking that spot on the top in the silver dust box is higher.
also we have no way of knowing how many dust particles are in each box but either way it's not an exact 50%

for some weird mother fucking reason, you fucks are saying it's just as likely that the first speck you pick up is from the 1st box as it is from the 2nd.

This whole thing was a subliminal funfair shill?

ITT the majority of biz reveals themselves as a bunch of pajeet shills with poor English comprehension.

>given
>given
>given

You street-shitting Thuggee.

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That's not the mistake the wrong people in this thread are making. it's that they're saying the probability of the first gold speck they pick up being in the 1st container is equal to the probability of it being in the 2nd container. Fucks me why they are doing that, but that's exactly what they are doing.

but if you get a gold speck it's 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% gonna be from the one full of gold and not the one with a single gold speck

you >given fags are implying that if you pick that box you're gonna pick that particle too

The absolute state of LINK bagholders.

>A single golden speck from goldbox has the same chance of being picked as the single golden speck in silverbox.
nah... it is more likely that the speck was picked from the gold box. almost 100% the next speck you pick is gold. the odds that you picked the silver box and went unlucky are not astronomical but around 1 in the million depending on grain size and box size.

after seeing this thread, according to link holders the probability of it going above $1 in the next 2 months is 50% (either it does or it doesn't).

That's as good as I can do. Honestly done with biz now, it's clear that far from the strongest surviving the bear market, we've been left with the most deluded retards.

Oh shit, i get what your saying. Maybe i'm the pajeet. We need an user more qualified than most to solve this.

Let A1 be the event that you picked the 1st box, A2 be the event you picked the 2nd box and A3 the event you picked the 3rd box, and let B be the event that the dust speck you picked from the chosen box is a gold one. The conditional probabilities are

P(B|A1) = 1, P(B|A2) = 1/N2, P(B|A3) = 0.

P(A1) = P(A2) = P(A3) = 1/3

P(B) = P(A1)*P(B|A1) + P(A2)*P(B|A2) + P(A3)*P(B|A3)
= (1/3)*1 + (1/3)*(1/N2) + (1/3)*0
= (1 + 1/N2)/3

According to Bayes' Theorem, the probability we are after is

P(A1|B) = P(A1)*P(B|A1)/P(B)
=((1/3)*1)/(1 + 1/N2)/3)
= 1/(1 + 1/N2) = N2/(N2 + 1)
= 1 - 1/(N2 + 1)

Remember the euphoria last year
>$1 EOY

let me do a number crunch real quick... it's 33.33% (repeating of course)

it's 50/50, right?

exactly!

BECAUSE IT ALREADY HAPPENED!!!

You have a 100% chance of getting gold on box A, a 0.00000000000001% chance on box B, and a 0% chance on box C.

You got gold. YOU HAVE GOLD.

So what ALREADY HAPPENED is either one of these:

1) you got a speck from box A
2) you got a speck from box B

how likely is that the next speck will be gold? There are N-1 gold specks left and N silver specks left.

p=1/2.

Done. The end.

any single has the same odds than the single gold, as you do not even choose it
onlything that varies from case by case is which box you choose. When a box is chosen (which is 50/50), the gold speck is automaticaly picked for you. YOU DONT CHOOSE A SPECK WHICH IS N/1, YOU ONLY CHOOSE A BOX WHICH IS 1:1.

>So what ALREADY HAPPENED is either one of these:
>
>1) you got a speck from box A
>2) you got a speck from box B

but that's like saying you have a 50% chance of winning the lottery - either you win or you lose.

no, that's like saying you got the first 5 numbers of the lottery right, what's the chance you got the 6th number right too?

it's 1/10, just like it's 1/2 here because there are 2 boxes, doesn't matter the number of tickets at the beginning of the lottery thing

but the box spec is the spec from that box.
for example box 2 is the gold spec and the silver specs can't get picked from the boxes dust. how could it then have done that if it could have not only have been picked but also the whole thing picked?
>my hand in the box
>my hand in the dust box
so easy god damn

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The only correct answer