I think about this alot we live in an age where so much is about to change in the next 20 years we cant even comprehend it right now.
Just saw a post from another user complaining up truckers. they will be gone tho sooner or later so will be millions of jobs with them cab drivers the same and bus drivers and this is just the transportation buisness.
the only solution i see for there not the be people with pitchforks in the streets is the universal income.
so my question again: when? and how high? how would you pay for it? raseing taxes to 50% on non essential things? but then the ui would have to be around the whole world or tax evasion would skyrocket.
It's never going to happen. Even a super-minimal non-basic non-universal income in the US would cost the equivalent of a mission to Mars. Every single year.
The only way I see it being feasible is if the government first eliminated all of it's debt (impossible) and then built up a huge reserve of investment (that wouldn't be immediately raided to pay for stupid projects and lining pockets of politicians). Once it had this reserve, the cashflow from it would then be paid to all citizens equally.
It's far more likely that the bottom-rung folks would continue to hang on for dear life and the middle class would continue to shrink.
My advice is to cut your expenses to the maximum and invest like your life depends on it. Because it does.
Jaxson Lee
Its a bummer man but that is the conclusion I am drawing too. I cant see a way for the UI to work or to put it better I cant see a way for the transformation into a society with ui...
My thought experiement went like this, there will be people who can afford life extension lets say 250 years. In that time medical advances might make it possible for them not to die at all but that doesnt realy matter. They have alot of time to acumilate vast amounts of wealth which they need in the firstplace to keep extending their life. So its Darwinism on a whole nother scale where the rich are able to life forever and expand in the universe and the poor just die out over time...
Juan Myers
but what about the pitchforks?
there is no question in my mind that automation will lead to millions and millions of joblosses. now there is people who say yeah well it will lead to new jobs. but will it? i dont think so. this isnt the fucking industrial revolution this is the emergence of ai.
how will politics sedate the masses?
Luke Evans
Kek just fire up the federal reserve magic money machine like always. Its not real, who gives a fuck about "debt"?
Dylan Taylor
Look, even if UBI does eventually happen, you still will want to have your own passive income stream. So, don't worry about UBI and do your own DIY version.
A debt-based UBI scheme would absolutely lead to hyperinflation. Not feasible.
Asher Green
It already exists in a way. Just get a job in a corporation. You'll be paid for drinking coffee and chatting with your "co-workers" for 8h a day.
Wyatt Kelly
you are cute :)
Chase Sanchez
>he thinks job losses will happen >doesnt realize automation will open up millions of jobs and potential self employment opportunities
Ryan Diaz
>how will politics sedate the masses? Most people in the US already are at the breaking point but you don't see large-scale unrest going on. We can be pushed very, very far if the bad changes come slowly enough over generations. Before you know it, you're grandchildren will just think it's "normal" to die of preventable diseases and have families living in vehicles not homes.
Meanwhile, they'll continue to watch Entertainment Tonight and see actors spend more on one dinner than an entire family makes for an entire year. And they'll say "Wow maybe that will happen to me!".
The point where pitchforks get involved is generations away.
Ethan Hernandez
this
Carter Robinson
But right now they got their cute little job and can buy their new iphone. But what happens if they dont. Their is just so much proffit to be made in cutting jobs that it will happen. I am amazed that there are no ai driven trucks at this point in time, but i think that only has to do with the pitchforks, at some point some guy will start running self driven trucks tho. there is no way on earth an human can hold up with that on a price level. and then the market just kicks in and whoever doesnt follow and stocks up on those fancy new trucks gets fucked. so they will. and that starts an avalanche.
and exactly this example will happen sooner rather than later in my mind. and there are thounsands of other examples
Jacob Lewis
If it does happen it'll destroy the economy. UBI means less people working. Less people working means less goods to go around.
Xavier Anderson
People haven't actually been able to actually buy their own iphones for a LONG time now even with their cute little job. You're forgetting consumer debt and credit cards. If that was straight-up illegal, you might be very close to pitchfork-time. But it's like college / education, where the costs don't matter, as long as everyone can pay the minimum payments.
Jackson Bennett
Doesn't matter - there is only a limited number of service and goods providers. In theory, UBI will free up talented people currently stuck in their dead end jobs to increase the number of goods and services, but in practice who knows?
Furthermore imagine a situation a hundred years from now - there will be children who don't know a single living relative who held a job. Unless we literally live in a Star Trek utopia, this will not end well. Too much entitlement and requests for gibs, too few people capable of producing things.
Andrew Taylor
name 1 where that's real. just 1
Mason Hall
but they can pay it because they are a truck driver, clerk, telephone operator, whatever you get the picture. they wont be able to do that very soon. or will politics just throttle technical advances? i dont think that this is possible.
Owen Russell
hello new converstation fren!
how do you imagine the transition to the ubi? and how would you pay for it?
Wyatt Carter
Any major corporation with >10k employees has those jobs, I've seen it. What you dont know is that those jobs dont appear by luck. You create them by being a subject matter expert/architect where the underlings actually implement things on the ground while you control "the big picture" aka a few meetings and diagrams/docs for a couple of hours a week.
Aaron Martin
Dude, people even stress about paying their minimums. You don't even know. It's now all about the gig economy for the precariat class.
But, I get your point, what happens when they can't even do that? The overall system will relax the rules and payments just enough to where they can pay again. That's what I predict anyway, a gradual grinding down of the bottom-most people.
Joseph Jenkins
The only way there wouldn't be enough jobs is if everyone had everything they wanted. There are unlimited jobs, but limited resources to pay with, and limited jobs worth paying minimum wage for. More automation means more goods, which means more jobs that are worth the money. Automation is good.
Alexander Edwards
Only once we have an abundant, cheap source of energy, maybe anti-matter can quality will a workable version of UBI be possible. Again the issue is not with the first hundred years of UBI, its with the culture that it builds.
Brayden Brown
UBI can happen when the following things are in place:
>smart contracts >decentralized identity >AI working through data and then making decisions on the macro scale so resources are perfectly distributed >social credit system in place
Tyler Evans
they wont have anything to pay those payments. thats where ubi would kick in put then we are at this question again
>how do you imagine the transition to the ubi? and how would you pay for it?
this is why i have been thinking about this alot lately... i cant see a solution
Nolan Foster
Unironically chainlink makes UBI necessary. All the UBI articles and studies always used to make me angry then I saw chainlink and in like ooooooh ooooook now I get why they are pushing UBI..... because so many people won't have a job
Thomas Parker
ah you would like a discussion about the future problems of an utiopian society?
Josiah Rodriguez
I guess even more people can be pushed into the service industry in things like providing experiences (like people play pretending with a party of customers). Maybe artisan items will become more popular. More money shoved into entertainment in general. Massage. Therapy. Healthcare. Mostly various kinds of social labor.
There's a lot of stuff like that and the profit gain and operating cost reduction from automation in many other things can "pay for it", so long is it actually trickles down in the form of wages in automation creation and maintenance work and profit tax derived public sector wages. An acceleration of public infrastructure projects in natural monopolies will benefit everyone.
There are also ways to incentivize businesses to spread the working hours around, like forcing them to pay extra to workers working over x hours at their company, and a tax to the state on every hour worked over too. Like for example a soft-enforced 30 hour work week (including lunch) through 30% overtime pay and 30% overtime tax. A temporary minimum wage can help in conjunction in order to kick things off so that 1 job becomes normal instead of 2x 30 hour per week jobs (to be able to live), but one must be careful using tools like minimum wage.
Brandon Russell
UBI can never happen, but it is possible that with enough automation people will only have to work like 1hr a week to get everything they want.
Anthony Jones
UBI is communism
gtfo russian shill
Bentley Torres
this is why i love this hentai image board i would love to talk to guys like you for hours but i got 2 conversations going at the moment and can hardly concentrate on those
Alexander Stewart
I worked at a fortune 20 company and many people didnt do anything all day. they work maybe 10 hours a week
David Morales
uh ouch but i see where you are going too. wouldnt that need a world government aswell? or who would keep track of the socail credit system
Juan James
There are a dew goid articles on Medium about UBI. Pros snd cons You can search for them there. some even adressed the supposed price it would cost and wuth some changes it us actually quite doable
Jordan Hall
There isn't a solution. The people that don't hustle hard enough will default on their payments, their credit will be ruined which will ironically hurt their changes of finding full-time employment. And they become homeless and without any further resources, like the human equivalent of stray cats.
I was going to say that I'd predict encampments of these folks, but that's already happening, it's not some far-off future. Tent cities and shanty towns are already a big problem and will grow. And they won't even be able to vote for changes, since they need an address to register to vote. The underclass of the future will be voiceless and without resources.
The other thing that UBI-advocates fail to think of is that there's entrenched vested interests that want to keep the existing social services operating as-is since they provide federal and state-level jobs to people. So the social services are in fact a job creation program and poverty has transformed from a problem to an industry. UBI would take all of that away and the high-level fatcats running these programs would never allow that to happen.
Hudson Price
thank you i shall look at those at a later point
Camden Fisher
but somethining has to happen or the tipping point will come where the pleb will grab the pitchforks i will guarantee that much
these encampents will rise no question in my mind at all.
i am not saying that i am ubi supporter by the way i see it as one of the solutions to a host of problems i predict for the not so far away future. those entreched interests that you call them will have to face the pleb too.
at this point in time people who cant afford anything at all are a minority. if there is not a thing like ubi they will no longer be in the very near future. there is no way that any suppresiv system of any kind could controll such masses...
Oliver Hughes
It's never going to happen in the US. We don't even like subsidized health care, even though many people don't have any other option.
Matthew Lopez
>but somethining has to happen or the tipping point will come where the pleb will grab the pitchforks i will guarantee that much
Well, maybe it'll plateau out, keeping people just on the edge. But it would more likely be addressed by a temporary welfare assistance rather than a systemic change.
>at this point in time people who cant afford anything at all are a minority. Over 60% of Americans right now cannot afford an unexpected $500 expense.
Dylan Wright
for it to plateau out something has to happen tho or it wont. because they wont have any job. as i said i am not atall an advocat of the ohhh ai will produce so many new jobs idea. quite the contrary. but that would be a whole nother discussion.
but they can afford a 499$ unexpected expense. they wont be able to do that very soon
Nathan Myers
by 2020 it will be implemented properly first we need labor robots and new government.
Benjamin Turner
A better question is, assuming society is capable of doing so, will it?
Gavin Hughes
>>how do you imagine the transition to the ubi? and how would you pay for it?
Justin Hill
For UBI to work we need to surpass resource scarcity. We need full automation of essentials such as farming. We need REQ to dump to 0.
Dunno, citizen IDs that also double as debit cards? 2 possibilities. 1. We get to the point where basic resources are no longer scarce. 2. Losses from unemployment begin to over take cost of implementing ubi
part of the plan has always been to eradicate the middle. UBI does not need to happen, as long as more and more people are leeching off welfare the goal will still be reached.
this guy has the right idea. The best way to sustainably solve most problems today is to drastically reduce world population. Perhaps that is why there is so much tension and conflict today - could it all be building up towards a war somewhere down the line? Maybe not in our generation, but late 21st century?
David Rodriguez
This.
Bentley Allen
do you imagine resource scacety ending in the new future? that would solve every problem in a heartbeat.
We can hope that the ai comes up with some sort of nearly free energie very fast atleast. that would solve every problem.
But then we could go to the next fun subject. problems of the future utopia.
Andrew Rivera
None of this is true. Eliminate all social programs like unemployment, medical etc & the accompanying government infrastructure & it's roughly the same cost as now. Just more fair. It's still a bad idea for a ton of other reasons, but cost is actually not one of them. Whole reason guys like Freidman even advocated it was that it's by far the lesser evil than a bloated welfare state with layers of pointless hoop-jumping to get it.
Juan James
My advice for any user reading this and getting a little down:
- scale down spending as much as possible - start earning pasiv income - wait and relax it will turn out fine most likely
i've been seeing this problem for the past 8 years, it's why i've been mentally checked out this whole time
Camden Martin
There is already a world government. NGOs control the narrative and they will enforce this system. Sure Law will still differ from place to place but who do you think will produce these systems that enforce the social credit systems and set them up?
The Digital Identity part is so the system can estimate with how many resources its dealing and distribute them.
Jeremiah Lopez
That doesn't happen.
Jack Myers
Did farm employees in the 19th century also think a universal income was around the corner now that steam engines were taking their jobs? Probably not and in the end they had to do take a lot worse jobs in order to survive.
Lincoln Cooper
We're likely just going to be killed off in a depopulation event before we get UBI.
Henry Baker
Universal income won't come in the form that everyone imagines it to be, where some central authority uses wealth pooled from the populace and redistributes it. Instead, it will consist of a complete privatization of all things possible where an individual can produce, buy, and sell on their own without the need of a third party. It will be a hyperized form of direct to consumer trade, where everyone is both consumer and producer. From agriculture to clothing, from services to one's own information, an individual will have ownership of anything that can be commodified.
How can that be? We have already seen that with blockchain, anything can be quantified and traded, with the transactions themselves recorded for posterity. Decentralization is individual control over resources, and therefore wealth.
Andrew Ramirez
Ok I'm going to drop the UBI redpill on all you >Physical resources are finite >Time for humans is finite >Land is finite >The number of possible Products and services and variations there of are unlimited >Human desire for goods and services is unlimited A post scarcity economy is literally mathematically impossible. Funding functional UBI is mathematically impossible. Creating humans who don't have human wants and desires is biologically impossible. Stop believing in communism's third attempt at rebranding.
2 scenarios where it could happen. Both require new fangled shit and fail to account for some variables. However minorites are always butthurt.
1 >Globalist revolution, AI introduced to oversee resources / humanity. UBI introduced. Differences in humanity are problematic.
2 >Slow generational shift towards UBI through Golden bull economy. Space capitalism / tech advancements means that the collective wealth essentially 'reduces our population'. There are no crashes, flow of goods are stemmed & controlled in such a way that wealth keeps growing. This is done in order to ensure peace, everyone is OK with megacorps lifes good.
I think over the long term it wouldn't matter. 90% of humans use to work in food production / farming and now it's like 2%. People just move to different jobs. But there would be short term pain as people either arnt smart enough or willing to adjust.
Ethan Harris
It will happens when its essentially almost free to create any product and move it to where it needs to be
Big business will be giving 90% of their profits to the tax man to pay for it
Jason Lewis
Maybe in Burgerstan. The French are already rioting over the decline of their standard of living. Nothing too serious for now but it's a start. The Italians also voted for the first populist government in the EU, and those populists promised some form of UBI during their campaign. We will see what will come out of that but seems to me that things might start to move in Europe; richer countries like Germany and Norway already have an unemployment subsidy that is almost a basic income for the dumb and unskilled.
