Australias Property Bubble Bursting

>AMP's Shane Oliver predicts average falls of 25%.

ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2019/january/Australian-housing-downturn-QA-how-bad-will-it-get?csid=1012228073

Previously predicted 20%, previously predicted 15%, previously predicted 10%, previously predicted 5%.

>NAB raise interest rates on mortgages
NAB announces changes to home loan variable interest rates

theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-raises-its-variable-mortgage-rates-20190124-p50tdv.html

NAB has today announced the following changes to its home loan variable interest rates, effective Thursday 31 January 2019:

Variable rates for owner occupiers making principal and interest repayments will increase by 0.12% p.a.
Variable rates for owner occupiers making interest only repayments will increase by 0.16% p.a.
Variable rates for residential investors making principal and interest repayments will increase by 0.16% p.a.
Variable rates for residential investors making interest only repayments will increase by 0.16% p.a.

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Other urls found in this thread:

abc.net.au/news/2017-10-06/impact-of-chinese-buyers-on-australian-house-prices/9021938
Smh.com.au/business/companies/chinese-buyers-fuelling-sydney-property-hotspot-demand-20140129-31m1b.html
Smh.com.au/national/chinese-buying-australian-real-estate-tops-foreign-investment-report-says-20170509-gw0t9v.html
afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/anz-westpac-hit-by-hundreds-of-chinese-home-loan-frauds-20160508-gop6n1
afr.com/real-estate/westpac-calls-time-on-lending-to-foreign-residential-property-buyers-20160427-gofv5q
m.youtube.com/watch?v=DRC3MQ9knZQ
ft.com/content/b69166fa-ee01-11e7-b220-857e26d1aca4
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

>average falls of 25%
nigga I lose that on LINK daily. Tell the aussies to stop being fucking pussies.

But link is worthless trash and properties cost on average about $500,000

Honestly who isn't surprised? It's a literal hell hole with creepy crawlies that could kill you instantly.

Fuck that place.

>wait until the bubble is super inflated and then crashes before starting to hike interest rates again
can they make it any more transparent that they are trying to amplify the cycles rather than reduce them?

LIBOR has been raising and banks are meant to make a profit. It's not some scheme it's just about maintaining profits for shareholders. The rest of the Big 4 already raised rates last year. NAB held out longer but it's inevitable.

Ps: These rates so far don't cover the losses from LIBOR, so more rate rises are coming.

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So literally nothing

SEETHING SHITBOX BUYER

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what the fuck s going on with hobart

So now China stops all the overbidders, but then comes the Royal Commission, which reveals how shit the banks have been at looking at the incomes/expenses of borrowers. Anyone could get $1m in debt if they applied. Uber driver? Here you go. Casual cleaner? Here's a million dollars, go and spend it however you like.

Royal Commission put the brakes on that. Now people need to actually have capacity to service their debt. When before you'd get $1m loan, now you get $600k-800k.

So you think on average, the average place in Sydney, pretend it was $1m, now you've taken away the overbidding Chinese, and you've constrained the borrowing of the leftover buyers, so they aren't going to overbid, and they can't even afford the current price. Prices naturally fall to the $600-800k range to where they're affordable.

But it doesn't stop there, because by the time prices reach affordability levels, they've fallen 40-20% from peak, which means buyer sentiment has collapsed, and investors are scared, first buyers are scared, everyone is scared, so prices exceed the fall to where they're affordable before they stabalise.

Whatever you think prices will be due to the constraints on credit, reduce it even further due to the reduction in sentiment. That's where prices will end.

If there's a global recession, the prices will fall even further than that.

I know where I predict prices to be, and I have my dates ready to purchase.

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Dates and prices please.

interest only loans maturing over the next few years, many heading toward negative equity, banks and boomers nervous as fuck. Bottom in 2-3 years.

>Remember a few years ago it was racist to say everyone was losing auctions to Chinese buyers
>
>>HOW DO YOU KNOW THEY ARENT AUSSIE YA FUCKING RACIST?

abc.net.au/news/2017-10-06/impact-of-chinese-buyers-on-australian-house-prices/9021938

>It's a common perception that Chinese buyers are descending upon Australia and driving up housing prices to unaffordable levels.

>However, Chinese buyers had almost no impact on property prices, according to research by business consultancy Cross Border Management (CBM) and BIS Oxford Economics.

>The study found that Chinese buyers accounted for less than 2 per cent of all Australian real estate transactions, and contributed less than 1 per cent ($122 out of $12,800) to the average quarterly housing price increase.

lolol

They used Foreign Direct Investment as their measure. Foreign Direct Investment is not a measure of investment into the Housing Market.

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Can't do it lad. If people find out the best time to buy then it'll make it harder for me to get a great price. Not worth the risk for me to even post here even if only a handful of nerds read it.

Unemployment is a good metric to watch. Negative equity + unemployment = default. Defaults = collapse not crash.

2014 Smh.com.au/business/companies/chinese-buyers-fuelling-sydney-property-hotspot-demand-20140129-31m1b.html

>Public servant Tina Ford said she could hardly believe it when her three-bedroom Chatswood apartment sold this month for $1 million at an auction in which all 16 registered bidders were ethnic Chinese.

>A second-hand house in suburban Eastwood sold for as much as $1 million more than the expected price, according to John McGrath, chief executive of McGrath Estate Agents in Sydney, which set up a Chinese sales desk in September.

>McGrath agent Adam Wong, who brokered Ford’s apartment, said 95 per cent of the more than 100 people at the auction were locally resident Chinese.

>Elsewhere in Chatswood, 90 per cent of developer Mirvac Group’s ERA high-rise apartment building sold to ethnic Asian buyers, most of them Chinese, according to John Carfi, head of the residential division.

This shit is hilarious... I'm going through old posts and articles about the bubble. It's like a parody.

In Chatswood the average house is down 15% today.

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i just want to taste boomer tears
good luck mate, if you feel like throwing us a bone closer to the date please do

It's a beautiful place to retire to. Boomers selling up land on the mainland and move to Hobart where houses are half the price and since they have money falling out of their pockets they don't care of they overpay slightly.

2017
Smh.com.au/national/chinese-buying-australian-real-estate-tops-foreign-investment-report-says-20170509-gw0t9v.html

>Beijing: Chinese buyers of new homes in Sydney and Melbourne dominated foreign investment in Australia last year, the Foreign Investment Review Board annual report says.

>China was the largest source of foreign investment ($47.3 billion), of which $31.9 billion was investment in real estate.

>The large number of applications for FIRB approval in 2015-16 (41,445) were "largely driven by residential real estate transactions", Mr Wilson wrote.

>A third of residential real estate approvals were granted for NSW homes, and 44 per cent for Victorian homes.

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Literally the only thing we had going for us was no niggers and what did they go and do?

2016
afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/anz-westpac-hit-by-hundreds-of-chinese-home-loan-frauds-20160508-gop6n1

>ANZ Banking Group and Westpac Banking Corp have discovered they have each approved "hundreds" of home loans backed by fraudulent Chinese income documents, which were allegedly manufactured with the help of dodgy mortgage brokers.

afr.com/real-estate/westpac-calls-time-on-lending-to-foreign-residential-property-buyers-20160427-gofv5q

>Westpac Bank and all banks in the Westpac group, including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA, have ceased lending to all foreign residential property buyers.

>Earlier this month, ANZ refused applications with 100 per cent foreign income sources following evidence of sloppy applications with missing passport pages, salaries being paid by obscure offshore companies and crudely translated supporting loan documents.

>The CBA, the nation's biggest home lender, followed, withdrawing loans to temporary Australian residents with foreign currency income.

Just to summarise

1. Chinese people lie about their incomes
2. Banks in Australia give them $1m
3. They're able to pay their mortgages using the capital they're trying to get out of the country
4. China stops allowing capital to leave the country
5. The banks freak out, recognising they have thousands of loans to people who live overseas and will just stop paying their debts because they can't get the money out and the banks can't chase them
6. You are here
7. Defaults

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WOW SURE GLAD THE BOOMERS ENCOURAGED HOLLOWIG THE COUNTRY OUT

WOW SURE GLAD BASEDBOYS ARE MORE INTERESTED IN DRINKING COFFEE AND NOT BUYING AUSTRALIAN LAND AND PROTECTING US FROM FOREIGNERS

To the extent that people believe you, it will only help it become self fulfilling. Also no one's going to believe you. Also you're probably wrong. Also the more right you are, the less likely people are to believe you, even on Jow Forums.

Seriously what level of delusion are you on to think a random prediction on a board that consistently justs itself could materially influence the housing market of an entire country? Or are you worried one of the Pajeets on here is eyeballing the same house you want? Wew lad.

If you can't form your own views with all the information freely available you're straight up retarded, why would I want to assist retards?

I only help friends and family.

I don't want "help" from retards like you. The truth is you're probably wrong and the best use for a place like this is to post your opinion and see if someone else can demolish it for you. If you're so serious about keeping your secrets to yourself you wouldn't even say you had them. Shake my head to be honest.

lol then go sook somewhere else faggot

Shit sucks desu
I've had to move three time in 2018-2019 because the Tenancy Laws here in Slowbart allow landlords to jack up the price at will, or get the place back for 'personal reasons' (i.e. Live there for a month then AirB&B it).
There's fuck all jobs here, it costs more, and even though it's fucking cosy and I personally enjoy it, it's becoming a grave yard with all the Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane fucking Boomers and GOD DAMN CHINESE """STUDENT'S""" families coming in and just crapping on locals.
People are literally living in tents in public places.
Plus in 5-10 year when the climate shits itself there will be even MORE people coming here, but our councils are so fucking corrupt and our local government is so inept and beholden to businesses that it's pretty much Sydney prices now.

>delusional about effects of posting on 4channel
Yes
>delusional about future of house prices
Almost certainly

I know how much you want a place in inner Sydney but it's probably not going to happen. If you've got savings ready to go you better have some in crypto because they'll hyperinflate that shit away before letting this market crash.

Fuck Tasmania, you cousin fuckers are in dire need of some literal diversity. Lowest naplan scores in the country. Lower than the abbos in NT ffs.

What are you crying about you poof? You want me to tell you when to buy and what the price will be? 2034 and house prices will be $40,000. There you go.

You seem transparently upset that you can't pull free advice out of someone who obviously knows more than you. But there you go, 2034 is the time to buy.

Really thinking about buying a few hectares in Tasmania so no matter how crowded it gets I still get to peace and quiet. The climate is also a huge positive. I don't expect the demographics to change too significantly, most migrants move to their own enclaves established in the mainland. Sydney and Melbourne especially. Plus as you said there's so few jobs, they'll find it hard to live.

For me? It's the investment property/ETF passive income stream while sitting on my ass in Tasmania, fishing and kayaking.

>It's a beautiful place to retire to. Boomers selling up land on the mainland and move to Hobart where houses are half the price and since they have money falling out of their pockets they don't care of they overpay slightly.
Yep, and then they start draining the fucking life out of the place.
Suddenly everyone's having to bend over for these old cunts because money.
All the things that attract youth get fucked (clubs, bars, events, festivals, culture) because it 'triggers' Boomers in some way.
And the best fucking bit?
I could work my fucking guts out, and these gloating old cunts will tell me to work harder to liver further away in shitter conditions AND THEN PAY FOR THEM AS THEY GET OLD AND USE RESOURCES LIKE HOSPITALS, while they just went and swanned in after selling one house on the mainland.
Fuck them, this state is a deadman walking.
And all the government can do is hope UTAS (our only university, a fucking monopoly) can bring in more chinks who barely speak English and yet are doing Masters of Accounting and buying up all the shops to sell to Chinese, or more fucking Poos who are driving Ubers and working in kitchens just to get DAT VISA.
>hurr move then
I CAN'T CUNT I HAVEN'T GOT ENOUGH MONEY TO MOVE TO THE MAINLAND

>though I am happy to see my city mentioned on the 4chins, and on Jow Forums nonetheless

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As if I needed confirmation, holy delusional kek. How do you plan to survive the apocalypse that decimates the worlds population in this scenario?

>Lowest naplan scores in the country.
>implying NAPLAN means anything or will be relevant in two years
top kek fren

>when the autistic sperg bugman can't tell sarcasm

Something tells me your inability to comprehend English and your obsession with Australian property prices is because you're from China

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>It's the investment property/ETF passive income stream while sitting on my ass in Tasmania, fishing and kayaking.
based and outdoorpilled

I was just shocked anyone could do worse than NT on the closet thing we have to a statewide IQ test.

Don't disagree with anything here.

Can buy hectares on the water in Tassie for a few hundred grand. Put a house smack bang in the middle of the land, have 180 tree views, ocean at the doorstep. So long as my passive incomes are keeping me afloat I'll be effectively retired before I'm 35.

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>obsession with Australian property prices
I made exactly one post about property prices that was all of four words long. The fact that you think your prediction is a more valuable trade secret than the Kernel's secret recipe is baffling. I guess you could say retardation triggers me.

How did you do it? How did you managed to pull it off? I'm busting my arse and it's like I'm treading water in a cave. I'm keeping my head above water, but it keeps rising and I'm running out of breathing room :(
>also pretty sure that image in from r*ddit...
>god damn our nature is nice

Inheritance like most wealthy people. Sucks but that's the way it is. I've also got a well paying job, but it'd have taken me years to save what I inherited.

Can you upskill to get a higher paying job? Obviously you can read and write, which is a great start compared to most people. UTAS has plenty of courses. Being on Austudy and working part time you could probably get by until you graduate, then find a better job?

Good! If the banks goes broke than 60-80 percent propert crash for 8-15 years, I’m waiting....
2. FUCK a negative gearing anthing to start with, it only works for the 2 percent of the population.
3. AND CHINA has warned a black swan event, fuck times a head!!!

>Inheritance like most wealthy people
Oh. Thanks anyway...
>Can you upskill to get a higher paying job?
Yes, but not available in Tas. UTAS is by far and large a joke university and diploma/visa mill, but they do have a few good areas (IMAS, Agri-science, Geology, Animals and shit).
I just don't want to do another degree user, I really don't (stupid a BA in History and English. Loved it when I started, despised it by the time I was done).
I'm making some money atm, but it's almost exclusively down to contacts and people liking me.

Well if you want more money I'd consider a Masters in a real area. I don't consider English History a real area. Not sure what the BA allows you to get into. I can understand not wanting to do a full undergrad again.

Anyone who thinks we are in a property bubble needs to watch this!!!
#fuck pan heads# Asian rice monkeys#

m.youtube.com/watch?v=DRC3MQ9knZQ

Yeah, I was thinking a Masters is basically minimum now for most fields.
I was thinking Developmental Psychology or Pedagogy (education is an interest of mine), but maybe I'll just try to make as much money as I can in 2019 work 'real jobs' (e.g. Jobs that suck) to really remind myself why I don't want to be a fucking IELTS//PTE tutor anymore...

If you choose something, think of the end-game career first. Pedagogy is fine and all, but what realistic employment will it provide you? Same for psychology.

In Australia it's really a question between whether you're going to learn a trade or you're going to upskill through education. There's not really many other jobs that pay well available.

Mortgage brokers do well and don't require any fucking idea, you could try that.

Jockey/horse apprenticeship pays extremely well but you have to be in good shape and a manlet

Thats like how all the people in America plan to be NBA, NFL or rappers.

holy fuck, is this the *real* story behind the chinese house buying?

how did they make their capital controls suddenly more effective?

ft.com/content/b69166fa-ee01-11e7-b220-857e26d1aca4

>China’s authorities have capped overseas withdrawals using Chinese bank cards at Rmb100,000 per year

That's about 20,000 AUD

>An annual purchase limit of $50,000 worth of foreign currency per person remained unchanged, said the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) in a statement on Saturday.

>According to the new rule, which takes effect on January 1, people who exceed the Rmb100,000 quota will be suspended from overseas transactions for the remainder of the year, as well as the following year, according to SAFE.

>Meanwhile, domestic card users will be barred from withdrawing more than Rmb10,000 a day overseas, it said. The new regulations represent the latest effort to combat what Beijing views as harmful and often illicit capital outflows.

>China’s outbound non-financial investment fell 40.9 per cent during the 10 months through October, according to official figures, reflecting the impact of strict capital controls.

>In August this year, China’s cabinet formalised a new framework that encourages deals that fit Beijing’s strategic priorities and discourages deals in entertainment, sports and luxury real estate.

>In early November, Beijing further tightened controls over outbound investment by requiring regulatory approval for some foreign acquisitions conducted through an offshore entity.

There is a severe lack of male horse apprentices in Melbourne though.

Meanwhile party members buy million dollar shacks in Canada.

Fuck that dystopian shithole, the worst part is that's the wet dream of the political class in west, to be able to control everyone's money as they wish.

Benefits of being a totalitarian state I guess.

the sooner it all comes down and the australian economy is centered and restructrured around something actually productive and not just residential property/the FIRE sector the better

>that's the wet dream of the political class in west, to be able to control everyone's money as they wish.
They already do. There's no escape.

Bit hiking has been their attempts to stop it crashing. What cycles, we have been on this towards trend for over 20 years. Please tell me you don't think it has been since 2013 or 2015

800k affordable compared to 1M. What you smoking

>Can't do it lad. If people find out the best time to buy then it'll make it harder for me to get a great price. Not worth the risk for me to even post here even if only a handful of nerds read it.

Jesus fucking christ. You're like one of those faggots that would claim "I can't tell you when to sell at the peak of BTC, if I tell you, then I would have a hard time selling my coins, I can't risk it mate"

Jesus fuck you're a pitiful, small minded faggot.

What exactly would be "affordable" for you?

>complains (rightfully) about the chinese but acts like a tightarse jew
Yeah he's a cunt. NEVER EVER DOG YOUR Jow Forums MATES