The national property market is in free fall with new figures showing prices tumbling sharply in January led down by a 1.7 per cent drop in Melbourne and a 1.4 per cent fall in Sydney.
CoreLogic's closely watched measure of dwelling values showed every capital city in the country bar Canberra started the year going backwards with the rate of fall accelerating through the past three months.
Outside the two major markets there is now clear evidence of a general drop in values.
House values in Perth (1.1 per cent), Darwin (0.9 per cent), Brisbane (0.3 per cent) and Hobart (0.2 per cent) all eased through January. Only the national capital, Canberra, saw a lift of 0.3 per cent.
Hobart had been the strongest property market in the country with annual growth of 7 per cent but the CoreLogic figures suggest even the Apple Isle capital is now easing.
In Melbourne, the total number of properties up for sale is 34 per cent higher than a year ago while in Sydney they are up by 24 per cent.
>There are about eight reasons why the housing market is in a downward spiral, according to AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver.
>"The decline in property prices is continuing to be driven by a perfect storm combination of tighter lending conditions, poor affordability, surging unit supply, reduced foreign demand, the switch from interest-only to principle and interest mortgages for a significant number of borrowers, fears that negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions will be made less favourable if there is a change of government, falling price growth expectations and FOMO (fear of missing out) risking turning into FONGO (fear of not getting out) for investors."
I want to be able to afford my very own cuckshed REEEEEEE
Jayden Evans
Govt has been so silent on this since they got it. The only thing theyve said was "Please keep loaning money"
I dont know what that means in practical terms because loans have reduced simply because the banks are now forced to do reasonable financial checks rather than rely on HEM
You cant walk that back to HEM, you'd have to try and create a third option that is closer to fraud because the current model is the closest to reality (actually measuring expenses/income)
Hudson Hughes
>prices tumbling sharply >dropped 1 percent hmm well good for me anyway; I probably won't have a deposit for another 2 years
Charles Lewis
Frydenberg has delayed 4.10 to 4.25+ because he wants to minimize the time he can be asked questions?
Place your bets. We have to return to the mean, the question is how are we getting there. Perth is about 100k away from getting back to the median house price pre-bubble (i believe around 400-450k) as house prices have seen 4 years of slow retraction and never quite experienced the same bubble level.
Wouldnt you need to adjust the mean to include the demand increase due to the CGT changes in ~2000? Overall demand would have to rise from that
Henry Baker
He's a slimy fuck. Just wondering what they are clobbering up right now to try and smooth this over. This is too big of a delay right now, absolutely no way it's a soft blow
Have heard from many builders in the industry that these major apartments taking over Sydney are not to industry standards. Bribes are common, main issues with concrete quality, second to do with fire exit regulations and next with poorly designed waste/plumbing systems. From what I understand the Opal tower investigation was covered up on a state level as many of these new high rises are not to a fit standard and a commision could cause a total collapse of NSW's housing market.
Exciting times are ahead. That's for sure.
Luis Martinez
Won't pop. This is what millennials get for pumping the big city lifestyle, and bashing other cities before buying.
Jeremiah Adams
>up thousands of percent >down 15% >omg its crashing
will be unaffordable for us goy in our lifetimes
Nathan King
It has to start somewhere. Look what they said in Ireland in 2007
>2007 will not be remembered fondly. The Daft Asking Price Index for Q3 2007 shows that house prices have been marking time all year. The index for September shows that prices have eased back 2% since July, undoing the earlier modest gains. On a 12 month basis, asking prices are more or less where they were this time last year.
>So will 2008 be a year of unrestrained joy, or will it usher a widespread gnashing of teeth? In the market for an asset such as housing, short run prices will always be sensitive to the whims of consumer sentiment. On this score, there is plenty of evidence in the Daft analysis that consumers continue to sit on the fence. Of properties initially listed in January, almost 1 in 5 is still on the market. This has forced many buyers to push down prices. About 10% of properties posted in 2007 have had their price reduced.
>Without doubt the dramatic price growth which has taken place over the past decade has had solid foundations; low interest rates, strongly supportive demographic trends and an outstanding employment fuelling economic performance. In isolation any of these elements would have supported a strong housing market. Together they created the circumstances which have led to the exceptional growth in prices we have become familiar with. >Looking forward, these different elements remain in place in the Irish market and while the era of successive years of double digit price growth are unlikely to be repeated, we strongly concur with the view that we are entering the phase of the so-called soft landing where the gains in house prices which have already been made will be consolidated and were single digit price growth is likely for a number of years to come
>Depending on whether you take Census or Dept of the Environment figures, that represents between 37% and 43% of homes in the country. Put in plain English, two in five homes in Ireland are worth less now than when they were bought.
>How far back has Ireland’s property market rewound? The graph below shows average home values in eight regions for the period 2002-2009. There are three shades of colour used – the lightest (further to the right) are house price gains that been wiped out, the medium shade represents current asking price levels, while the full colour lines represent asking prices less 10%. Overall, the asking price for the typical home in Ireland now is similar to what the home was worth in March 2005. If you believe asking prices are overstating true prices, the typical home in Ireland is now worth the same as it was in July 2004.
land is non existent in melbourne and sydney. its always going to be expensive. these FUD posts are from basement dwellers who missed the boat. enjoy living 1hr from the city you plebs
Ian Hernandez
>Ending grandfathering in 2021
lol what the fuck. just a casual 2 more years of practice the RC said is fucked
Brayden Kelly
Land is finite everywhere. Why did Syd and Melb run out of proportion compared to other comparable Anglo western nations? Was it because of the loose lending discovered by the RC?
because people would rather live in melb/syd over those other muslim shit holes
Jace Anderson
seething bag holder
Gavin Parker
seething manchild. enjoy living with your parents m8
Xavier Mitchell
enjoy putting the bulk of your net worth into a depreciating asset mate, good luck with that
David Jones
I'm not sure I could bring myself to build a new home now. The quality of work and construction in new homes is absolute dogshit. The guys doing the electrical are 1st to 2nd year, uninspired bottom feeders that get pushed through training and only want to earn $25/hr to buy new cars and drugs for the weekend. I'm a commercial sparky that has done post-handover work for family and friends and see shit like earths being terminated un-stripped. The just tighten the screw into the insulation because they cant be fucked stripping. Which mean they then aren't testing because it would never pass a continuity test. I've seen tilers take power points off walls to tile and put them back. Then when Ive gone to do work the active is blackened because the grub screw is touching mostly insulation, not copper. So you have a 10Amp kettle pulling through a a couple strands of copper and getting so hot it melts the insulation (90°C+)
>door handles put on crooked. Not 1-2° off level, but about 30°. >alfresco ceilings that leak and rot with mold after 12 months. Get fixed under warranty and do it again >rooms just simply not insulated. Go into the ceiling to replace shitty chinese transformers for downlights that die in 24months and see whole rooms with no ceiling insulation because fuck it >reticulation control boxes dead in 2-3 years >paint on the render on the front of the house so thin you see cracks coming through in less than 2-3 years. Whole streets of these cookie-cutter off the plan houses with the same shitty paintjob on the render that has faded showing the same thing. >A/C outlets on the piss >faucets that crack longways in the underside in kitchens/bathrooms that leak after a few years >open plan kitchen/dining areas where the ceilings crack and sag after only a few years
This is all personal experience. Everything about this modern day off the plan building industry is about being as fucking cheap as possible and hoping it lasts beyond warranty.
Logan Young
Because it's right next door to China and had yet to be touched?
Matthew Rogers
depreciating asset LOL. my property has 2.5x in the last 9 years. leaving 10k on the loan for that cheap interest rate
Thomas Scott
Because there's 3 billion Pajeets, Changs and Mbongos that want to live there
Lucas Perez
thats like saying bitcoin didnt depreciate because it started at $1 and ended up at $20,000 despite being $3,500 now
obviously youre not too bright
Aaron Stewart
yeah but no one needs or wants to buy bitcoin. meanwhile hundreds of thousands of cunts are immigrating to australia each year. and they all can't live in your mums basement with you unfortunately
Jaxon Martinez
Do you understand what oversupply means though? Basic words?
>Other capital cities have also begun to lose steam as restrictions in mortgage lending – especially to investors – weak wages growth and oversupply in apartments took their toll on buyer sentiment and increasingly threatens to impact economic growth.
>Some of the weakness is being fuelled by an oversupply of apartments, while the banking regulator has tightened criteria for mortgage lending, adding to the gloom.
>The question is more complex when buyers face a credit squeeze, property prices are falling the fastest in 35 years and there is oversupply in key markets.
>Housing oversupply forecast in NSW economic update >Pressure on residential property prices in NSW is set to increase, with figures in the NSW budget half-year review released on Tuesday forecasting a growing gap between housing supply and demand into 2019.
Wyatt Lewis
This. Think all the non-boomers with cash are just sitting there waiting to hear those wonderful boomer screams as their massively over leveraged, negative geared personal piggy banks go to liquidation. Gonna be a good years cunts.
Carter Ward
>>/x/ please and thank you
Landon Ward
seething ad hominem bag holder. if you have information to counter please share it so we can all profit using accurate data
Ian Hall
>I’m a commercial sparky Stopped reading there. Never have I come across such mediocre cunts that have a superiority complex. That’s also how the start of the post read.
Sick of this fantasy and the fallacy it's built on >if there's a severe housing crash, only people with investment properties will suffer and that's boomers haha! >everyone without a mortgage will be able to buy a cheap house at the eeeevil boomers expense haha, im so clever!
If there's a sever housing market crash, every single person in Australia gets 10/10 fucked. Everyone. I written pages of this shit here whenever someone inevitably come in with this stupid notion, Im not re-writing it again. A short summary >housing prices start to crash >over-leveraged borrowers start to offload investment properties accelerating the crash >the majority of the Australian economy is built on small business. Small business that is leveraging the equity in their homes to exist >the equity evaporates >so do those businesses and the credit lines they relied on >unemployment starts rising, purchasing power decreases >majority of retirements and super funds are heavily exposed to the property market through investment in development and management companies >boomers come out of retirement and start looking for work >more pressure on labour market, unemployment continues to rise >go to the top and start again as the problem is a feedback loop with no end
Google deflationary death spiral to get a better understanding of how everyone except the ultra rich gets absolutely blown the fuck out. Inflation can be dealt with, deflation not so easily.
Alexander Jones
>t. fridgy go hit a bearing with a hammer or something you monkey
Michael Hernandez
Unemployment peaked at around 15% in Ireland and their economy was even more reliant on construction. Your claims that everyone is going to be fucked are unfounded by history. I'll be fine, everyone who didn't buy in the past 5 or so years will be fine. Everyone who didn't use equity will be fine. Everyone whose career isn't connected to construction will be fine. Everyone who isn't a broker will be fine. That's most of the population who will be fine.
Gavin Adams
I'm invested in BEAR
Eli Edwards
i have to work for the dole hahahahaahahahah 50 hours of hard labor a fortnight for 550 bucks hahahahhahahahahahahahaha they wont find me a job because they want slave labor hahahahaha im a fucking field nigger
Evan Perry
>25 hours week >550 bucks per fortnight >11 an hour How about get a real job instead of getting cucked by the government. Minimum wage is literally double that. >inb4 no work in my shithole bumfuck nowhere town Yeh how about you move to Sydney faggot >inb4 can't get a job Get training and new qualifications buddy. You can put Tafe on HECs >inb4 I'm too good to be a cleaner Yeah enjoy ur dole faggot
William Cruz
theres no work where im from i dont care if your said inb4 thats a cop out you cum shitter lol would be lol if u said this to my face right now id kill u and suicide by cop >inb4 id like to see you try faggot im a black belt and would kick ur ass
Joshua Foster
>Self justification This level of cognitive dissonance is insane. We already know it. You will never be able to buy your own property. Keep coping about it. I hope at least your boomers parents have one and you can inherit their shitmansion
Matthew Mitchell
Lmao I wouldn't say shit to ur face. Why would I piss off some unemployed hobo who has nothing to lose. If you don't want to relocate to improve your life fine but stop blaming others faggot
Cameron Lee
literally who have i blamed ? you disrespect me because of how i live i could kill you with my bare hands take ur shit and rape your woman who the fuck do you think ur talking to cunt i dont do drugs i dont drink alcohol i dont smoke cigarettes ive worked since im 16 i would snap ur kids neck if we were around 500 years ago bitch
Nathaniel Evans
I can see why you're unemployed faggot. Just be glad I pay tax on my 90k salary so you can afford food.
Wyatt Morales
lmao are u bragging about 90 k?my dad makes more than you in 6 months i dont spend a cent of my dole money on food i put it all into crypto i sell weed and live comfortably off that im only on the dole so that employers will hire me and job agencies take my seriously and help my find work but hey thanks for your money nigger lmao
Robert Edwards
the absolute state
Christopher Johnson
hahaha have a cry faggot
Jonathan King
Sick response. Better kys right now.
Juan Stewart
listen poof your world view and investment strategy is based on relying on incorrect assumptions (meaning you will lose money while i will make some) and instead of reviewing your portfolio you lash out making retarded wishes
i hope youre thinking of me when youre in social housing
William Nguyen
Sounds good. I hope your "threat" comes true. Social housing while owning multiple rentals.
Austin Davis
wish a keen eye for ignoring data and relying on emotional rhetoric i'm sure you're going to sustain that porfolio and didnt leverage it into equity which is now in negative equity
cause youre so shrewd ;) and so good with assessing information unemotionally ;) and dont have overt bias towards one outcome ;) youll be rich forever ;)
John Robinson
I've been saving 2k a month, we at 54k AUD now, but I've reconsidered and fuck being a homeowner. I live with my mum now and if I had to move out I'd refurbish a van or something
I drive past these boomers and all they do on a weekend is mow lawns/ garden / maintain their property, fuck all of that shit my dudes
Ryder Young
>tfw i save that much while renting
wish i still lived at home. dont really spend my money on anything except shit food
Jacob Mitchell
I earn like 50k, of you earn similar share your secrets please
Bentley Adams
>watch grand designs australia for the first time >unlikeable boomer and useless wife wants to make a house >the talentless cunt is project manager >changes her mind on everything >goes over 50% >ends up paying over 5 million AUD for a house with the only good quality is the view >the land was an additional 1.7 million
>can't afford a loan to buy that investment property? >just take out one with an interest-only period! >by the time you have to start paying interest+principal, your investment value will have gone up up UP and you can just cash in to pay off the loan, all while making a tidy profit!
lol, the next few years are going to get rough boyos.
just google 'interest only flipping' between 2012-2015 and laugh at all the websites that promote the practice of flipping using IO. Then laugh when you remember there's an entire demographic of people who were doing this upto this downturn (and beyond) who now can't flip for profit nor pay PI.
Adrian Gomez
2020 will be /the year/ imo
Jacob Williams
According to my TA, fib levels indicate that the buying range is in the median price of 730k to 875k.
Christian Jenkins
>changes her mind on everything I do work in building private houses, oh boy I love cashing out on changes. In all of my cases, 90% of changes are caused by wife. Oh boy they keep showing those new "smart technologies", "smartest designs" videos on youtube and changes their mind till she sees something "marvelous" the next week. In most cases they end up not using those "smart features" after few weeks, because actually it's boring and not really practical to use, while on video it looks really nice. I know about 20 cases where bide feature had to be removed because it's not really good to use them for some woman. Some spend thousands just to have that feature installed, I'm not talking about those little "strap on the existing toilet", i'm talking about separate toilets to clean asses. God, I love to take even more cash for uninstalling features in houses. What can I say, people have to much cash. People have to much cash
Juan Stewart
>What can I say, people have to much cash. >People have to much cash
They contribute nothing of value and are the absolute definition of middle men. The overwhelming majority of the dodgy liar loans were done through mortgage brokers.
How hard is it to just sponsor some MoneySmart shit or force the banks to have some independent financial councillor person to walk normies through the steps without taking a fucking disgustingly huge clip of the ticket?
Couldn't have happened to a more deserving group of people, the entire profession should be made obsolete imo.
Why not buy up Perth houses now? With mining taking off during GFCII you'll made a lot of money. Or just keep sitting on your hands for Melbourne and Sydney prices to come down to 500k levels? That might take several years and might not happen.
I swear I have seen this thread at least once a month for the past few years
Just accept it, the boomers won. Property will go up forever
Liam Rogers
>daft analysis I thought it was being used as an adjective, as in “those house prices are daft!”
Nathaniel Davis
>my property has 2.5x in the last 9 years. leaving 10k on the loan for that cheap interest rate It’s not a bubble guys
Brody Martin
Scared boomer cope. Since when have most small businesses been leveraging residential homes to stay afloat? Do you have a source for this?
Elijah Diaz
You sound dumb mate rethink the way you’re talking. You dont look like a hard man when you threaten over the internet you just look like a dumbfuck.
Jack Edwards
you are taking some very obvious bait son
Caleb Gray
I thought inflation was 4% lol not 150%
Levi Campbell
>Stable, transparent and reasonably liberal government >Abundant natural resources and economic opportunities >Glorious weather >Hot women everywhere
Why does everybody in the world want to live here and drive up housing? Sydney is like California. It could be run by Baboons but rich people the world over will still want to live there and put up with the BS. It's never going back to zero guys.
Brody Peterson
Toronto on the other hand scares the fuck out of me.
>Shit weather. Humid muggy summers and wet, sleet, shit salt stained winters >Baboon run government both Provincial and Local >Hyper inflated housing prices >(((real estate))) agents running everything >Economy about to crash because US shale gas/oil overperforming Canadian oil producers with Canada entirely relying on US to get oil to marker with poseur pipeline politics >Auto sector sick >Chinese gook cash drying up because we arrested their Huawei princess
This one is going to hurt guys. The red hot US economy is the only thing keeping this house of cards afloat.
