>"These households appear high risk on a variety of metrics, and we expect added selling pressure on the housing market when their interest-only periods expire in the next two years."
>The warning came as ratings agency Standard & Poors said the housing downturn was the main risk facing banks, not the banking royal commission, and Fitch downgraded NAB.”
>More than half of the at-risk borrowers bought at or close to the peak of the recent property boom when lenders were competing to build market share by offering cheap loans and easy terms, the analysis states.”
>Standard & Poor's, the rating agency, is warning banks will act in a "very cautious and conservative way" over the next two years because of the increased regulatory and shareholder pressure to boost responsible lending and minimise systemic risk.”
>"We see a scenario where there is rapid unwind [of housing] as most plausible scenario for what can go wrong for banks in Australia," he said, adding that prices will continue to fall.”
>The Morgan Stanley analysis revealed tighter credit conditions, potential deterioration in housing sentiment and pressure on household finances with more than six-in-10 respondents having issues getting a mortgage over the past year.
>About 80 per cent of interest only borrowers and 70 per cent of investors found banks either limited credit or refused loans. Nearly half of interest-only borrowers would prefer a principal and interest loan but were either refused by the bank or could not manage the higher repayments.
Read the whole article it's great. Turns out I was right. Morgan Stanley concur.
90% of the market cant understand the market, theyre this guy - in denial, emotional, or just plain wrong.
Oliver Martinez
yet the Australian stock market continues to roar up.
Angel Rodriguez
Even the mainstream news is reporting the future real estate crisis you turbo cuck. Youre not the oracle of delphi youre barely even sentient enough to post on Jow Forums.
Angel Edwards
aw poor baby bought a shitbox in the sky and cant get a yield above a savings account with ING and its depreciating too :(
Connor Gomez
Smart money moving from property to stocks
Juan Bennett
My sister started having trouble with her partner late last year and unintentionally sold their apartment at the peak. 120k profit in less than two years. I mean its not ground breaking but I'm just glad she got out before prices starting plummeting. End of interest only loans will be the start of the real downturn, an inquest into shoddy engineering of new apartments will really shake things up. Anyone not sure of how bad things are should watch the 60 minutes latest update on the Opal tower, similar problems have been encountered all across Sydney but are being covered up.
Benjamin Long
I didnt buy shit you fucking moron im just pointing out how youre a retard for thinking your special for predicting what everyone else is saying.
>REEEE I can't get wagies to rent (((my))) investment box that I was applying every trick to minimise my taxes with! GOVERNMENT HELP ME! Rot you filthy Boomer scumbag landlords. Enjoy being forced in to homes that are so bad they have a fucking Royal Commission in to them
>Shanghai/Sydney | China has introduced jail terms for operators of "underground banks" illegally helping tens of thousands of its citizens transfer money out of the country to buy property overseas, in a move developers warn is a big blow to Australia's real estate market.
>China's Supreme Court quietly introduced stiff penalties for illegal currency exchanges at the start of the month, in a further effort to stop capital from leaving the country. China's leaders want to prop up the slowing economy, stimulate the local property market and prevent a further sell-off in the domestic stockmarket.
imagine paying over 600 thousand for one of those rooms.
Cooper Torres
>Privacy and tranquility is overrated says our Property experts, and here's why: Muh steel muh glass muh monochromatic and tone render pallete muh concrete muh painted white minimalist overly heavy laminated chipboard interior
It's fucking nightmarish. It's at a point where I can unironically smell when a place is a bad deal. That overly sterile, too clean, 'freshly refurbished' smell.
My divorced dad lived in a whole series of these, and I just hated them. They're like an ant colony and not very friendly.
I'd rather live in a shack on the mountains than in one of these human filing cabinets.
Jose Perry
Clearance rates peak in february
Sydney and Melbourne are both around 55% with something like 40% unreported
I can see a 2x% clearance rate in Sydney by the end of the year. Sydney hit the 3x% last year and that was starting from a better february point than this year. It's gonna be fun.
The rubbish system is fucked up. Literally smell shit every time you need to leave. Since these places are filled with pajeets the smell of their shit food wafts under the thin doors. One of my friends lived in various modern apartments across Sydney and they all suffered the same problems. The worst had to be the apartment in Granville, small crack formed at the base of the living room wall shortly after moving in, after his 6 month lease had ended the crack had spanned the entire length of the wall roof to floor. The amount of shifting in the building was worrying, the big cracks you could spot behind the cladding on the outside of the building. Not even a year old. This on top of the multiple plumbing issues included burst main in the kitchen flooding the entire living room, some sort of red dye staining the sinks and shower. God knows what the fuck that was.
Thomas Kelly
What's with agents putting blurry retards in the advertising photos now
Also lots of little dogs are appearing
Dylan Morales
Pajeet and Chang love overcrowded urban dwellings.
Jayden Thomas
didn't APRA say they were turning the interest only tap back on because housing prices were falling too fast?
Adrian Bennett
Modern housing is prohibitively expensive, a destruction of beauty, and impossible to adapt. They use foreign materials, that rely on thousand mile supply chains instead of local materials that allow for cheap repairs and modifications.
Worst of all they are not designed for the needs of the occupants. Housing of 100 years ago was built to accommodate the climate of the home. High ceilings allowed how air to rise and occupants to stay cool without air conditioning. Tall vertical windows allowed air to flow freely. In winter climates low ceilings kept the warmth in.
Reliance on central heating and air conditioning has ruined housing. You'll get black mold in under 5 years on any new build. A combination of code requirements on vapor barriers and overuse of AC guarantees it.
Drywall everywhere makes things flat, inorganic. Not only it is unable to regulate humidity the way a wood paneling can. Wood absorbs water when it's wet, and releases it when it's dry which helps maintain a constant humidity.
Large eves on homes used to be common place and would protect the walls and foundation from moisture. These modern rectangle homes feature almost none. The thin stucco they paste over it eventually cracks and invites rot and mold.
The problem is home builders have are run like a business that tries to maximize profit by minimizing expenditure. The work that is done is the lowest bidder, the cheapest and least experienced labor.
The solution is for buyers to be connected to the homes they will live in instead of being removed 5 steps or being divorced from the property entirely (renting). Ideally, build your own home, build it with natural materials, employ designs that survived 1000 years like columns, an impluvium, a garden, high ceilings, overhanging eves, walls. Or modify the home you have.
Elijah Ortiz
>buys Australian property >rents it out >kid gets bitten by almost deadly snake >sued for millions >dad gets almost choked to death by choking snake >sued for another millions >mommy gets attacked by crocodile in the pool >sued for trillions >grandpa is sacrificed by 65 IQ aborigines in the neighborhood >house price falls 50%
but now you need to prove you can pay the principal back when it rolls over to IO+P. Before you just borrowed as much as you could afford on IO only and if you couldnt pay P nobody cared because you could just sell it and ideally youd make a profit.
Grayson Morris
i liked reading this and want to read more about this
source? just for my own interest, i was literally appartmetn shopping today becasue i thought if they were going to turn the tap back on this would basically be the bottom or enar the bottom
Kayden Green
do you guys think an older, pre-boom high rise could still be a good buy in melb cbd? like how low could prices possibly go in the cbd if the population is now over 5m?
Oliver Reyes
its alluded to in the OP article
>But regulators imposed lending caps after warnings from the Reserve Bank of Australia about record levels of household debt increasing financial vulnerability to a change in personal circumstances or sharp economic deterioration.
>They also found that fewer than half of borrowers have plans about how to repay the principal.
>“Interest-only periods should be of limited duration, particularly for owner-occupiers, and serviceability assessments should test borrowers’ ability to repay principal and interest over the actual repayment period (excluding the interest-only term),” Mr Byres said.
Jace Thompson
>should be >should test
compared to
>the big four banks collected an extra $1.1 billion over the last financial year as a result of hiking interest-only rates
without any legal force behind his recommendations things are just going to go back to status quo right?
also, to quote a great man "if everyone thinks one thing, then I say, bet the other way"
this 60 mins report is the signal that this is the bottom
Benjamin Robinson
You generally put your investment property in a discretionary trust set up only for that property. They can only sue the trust as they rent from the trust. As the trust is discretionary you are never obliged to receive income from the property. However you control the trust so you distribute the money to yourself however often you like.
You keep the trust balance low, if you are sued they drain the trust fund which probably only has $2000 in there.There is no liability on you.
Asher Wood
The older buildings on St Kilda Rd all seem to be 1.5m+ per apartment
Adrian Roberts
+1
Eli Garcia
those are low rise next to the gardens, blue chip properties
i'm talking about high rise in the cbd grid proper, postcode 3000. there are hundreds of 2 beds to be had for under 600k, mostly new construction but some older buildings too, the building i am currently looking at is from 2002
>Prelim Domain auction clearances: Syd 56% (=final ~52%,last wk 53%). Mel 54% (=final ~47%, last wk 50%). Still weak & Feb usually sees a seasonal bounce versus Dec of +10% in Syd & +6% in Mel (av last 8 yrs). Sales vols for Feb so far are -58%yoy in Syd & -73%yoy in Mel. #ausecon
Pickup Owner-Builder magazine if you're an Ausfag, full of hippies, but they use these principles a lot.
Jaxon Ortiz
Based and architect pilled.
Please write more on the disaster that is modern design (not Modernist, that is, if rarely, done well).
My boomer parents live in a McMansion (because they've earned it), and it repulses me how tacky and arbitrary it is. Literally off-plan cut-and-paste with as few green spaces as possible.
I live in Hobart, and the SHIT that is appearing fucking everywhere (besides carparks in the CBD) is atrocious. Oh and none of it is relieving the housing crisis. What they've started to do to Battery Point, oh my god...
A fucking LEAF here. We're experiencing the exact same thing. No coincidence either that it's caused in large part by the yellow menace paying exorbitantly for property in BC and GTA for two decades.
This timeline is fucked. There is no escape.
Blake King
>all these fags dumping their money from one investment to another just to get taxed to oblivion >just sitting cosy on my +50% gain on VAS and Macquarire watching money compound and print itself Lol
Justin Kelly
Can this happen in the USA? Specifically Los Angeles? All of these classic buildings like Amoeba Music on Sunset and places that brought a sense of community to the neighborhoods like churches are being bought out and converted into douchebag ‘luxury’ housing and it’s not stopping.
Daniel Kelly
Its so factor dependent. Can't say what'll happen anywhere else without knowing all the details.
Parker Cook
>family rents a home from you >has a gumtree in the back yard >gumtree becomes occupied by a koala >kid who lives in the house fingers the koala in the butthole >koala sues the kid for a cuntillion of Australia's finest dollars >You sue the koala for trespass >everyone wins >except the kid who will never rent again because he's a known sexual offender >kid commits suicide when he's 19 >who cares, the cunt fingered a koala ffs >you go down to the beach one day >you get eaten buy a great white shark >the shark says: "welcome to MY house, bitch."
>we are one, but we are many >and from all from all the lands on Earth we've come >we share a dream and sing with one voice >I am, you are >we are Australian
Oliver Turner
LA/SF/SD look to be peaking but they probably won't dip for long. The amount of international buyers in those cities is huge. The amount of QE done by Central Banks around the world is also huge. They're starting to tighten in some areas but now QE is beginning in others and the FED is talking about it.
Oliver Martin
Some of LA's $ will emigrate to cities like Vegas, Portland, Reno, Sacramento. You can sell your home in LA and buy 2 or 3 in those or cities. Work from home on your laptop, or uber and airbnb. Seems like people are becoming more mobile
five-bedroom Prahran home slated for redevelopment sold at a $561,150 loss at auction on Saturday.
The vendor of 273 Dandenong Road was developer Icon Co (Jessamine Ave) Land Pty Ltd, public records show. The same records show the company paid $2,586,150 for the home in 2016, before it sold for $2,025,000 under the hammer.
The developer had planned to build a boutique apartment complex on both 273 and the neighbouring block, 271, according to industry database Urban.com.au.
Public records show the company sold 271 Dandenong Road at a $713,850 loss earlier this year as well, for a combined loss of $1,275,000.
but how much lower are they gonna go? you're never going to pick the very bottom, once they start rising again it's too late, everyone gets swept up in the fomo and things get out of control
Cooper Morris
>Many rich chinese buy visa to sydney or melbourne >Property prices soar in sydney and melbourne >national wages stagnant
I see no problem here
Cameron Sanders
>places that brought a sense of community to the neighborhoods This is what intrigues me. We're cramming more people in to smaller yet more expensive living spaces, reducing green space or just interesting areas, and it seems people are getting more and more unhappy.
Blake Thomas
These are accurate btw
Chase Rivera
Just signed my tenant up to another 12 month lease.
feelsgoodman.jpg
Jaxon Sanders
>reducing green space or just interesting areas
most dense inner suburbs have no shortage of interesting areas, and in melbourne at least there is no shortage of green space
>it seems people are getting more and more unhappy
actually surveys show higher density living to correlate with greater levels of happiness
Julian Jenkins
>actually surveys show higher density living to correlate with greater levels of happiness
lol
alright we'll all be waiting here for that uncontradicted data
I have no idea about prices but the old brutalist-looking apartment buildings from the 60s and 70s are well-constructed. I lived in one for a while and it was great - thick concrete walls that insulate well and block all noise from neighoring apartments, wood and stone in the kitchen, BIG windows.
