Reduced lending, reduced prices.
Australias Property Bubble Bursting
Carson Phillips
Other urls found in this thread:
rba.gov.au
businessinsider.com.au
youtube.com
imf.org
imf.org
youtube.com
reuters.com
theaustralian.com.au
abc.net.au
twitter.com
Carson Ross
Lending to investors also down. Reduced prices consequential of both.
Source rba.gov.au
Jackson Ross
Credit impulse continues to decline. Less credit, less mortgage amount, less able to offer for properties, less able to sell properties at, less prices.
Source businessinsider.com.au
Justin Anderson
Credit growth for investors and owner-occupiers continues to decline naturally as less people are approved.
Isaiah Butler
Prices in Sydney and Melbourne continue to fall. Auction clearance rate historically low and likely to fall from the February peak as has been the case almost every year for 20 years.
Matthew Price
February peak has sparked speak of a recovery, an end to the decline, it is highly unlikely as no material factors have changed since now and last year. The end of the Royal Commission did not change any actual thing.
Tyler Perry
Many suburbs previously over $1,000,000 median have already fallen over 20%.
Jaxon Green
Continued falls are expected.
Nolan Rodriguez
Blue chip areas in Sydney fell 10% or more last year.
Leo Bennett
Yield? What yield? Vacancy rates due to an oversupply of apartments in Sydney keep a cap on rentals and apply downward pressure as renters have much more options.
>No capital gains
>No yield
>????????????
>Profit
Luis Bailey
Christopher Jackson
Based Aus collapse user, honestly the only consistent good content while we wait for link.
Jackson Ross
Thanks Martin.
Links rise to coincide with property bottom.
Austin Ramirez
That's the dream. Link euphoria during boomer property capitulation.
Oliver Robinson
Martin is based. His data has been very useful and hes been very influential.
I just tabulate every factor I find relevant to our property market. I figure it's going to be highly profitable to invest the time to find out the realities. If I hadn't done this I might've bought a property 12 months ago and be sulking over I could've gotten something better had I waited till the bottom.
Also something funny is the chorus of "You can't time the bottom!" like Property is as liquid as shares or something. It's the slowest moving asset class ever. You can see week to week the trajectory. It's not like a share where an algo can pump and dump within a second and you missed the bottom. And furthermore the bottom leads to flat prices before a recovery, it doesn't instantly rebound, there's no way to miss the bottom, and there's a lot of ways to 'time' it.
Connor Nguyen
Keep coping. It is impossible to time it and you already failed to buy the latest bottom. it was fucking 10 years long.
Josiah Gonzalez
Here's an interesting fact
>The chapter finds that there is a trade-off between the short-term benefits of rising household debt to growth and its medium-term costs to macroeconomic and financial stability. In the short term, an increase in the household debt-to-GDP ratio is typically associated with higher economic growth and lower unemployment, but the effects are reversed in three to five years. Moreover, higher growth in household debt is associated with a greater probability of banking crises. These adverse effects are stronger when household debt is higher and are therefore more pronounced for advanced than for emerging market economies, where household debt and credit market participation are lower.
See pic related for Australias household debt to GDP, and when it peaked, in reference to the predicted 3-5 year time until it reverses as described by the IMF.
Dylan Mitchell
I probably can't buy until early-mid 2020. Hoping it will start plummeting by then
Jayden Ross
mortgage cope. You really think it's impossible to find the bottom of a product that only moves ~1% in 1 month? After falls of over 20% I could miss the bottom for half a year and still make a profit from waiting.
This is why you're coping and I'm not, I'm smarter than you.
Xavier Campbell
Could the Australian market simply be an indicator for the Chinese market?
Chase Johnson
Agreed. I love reading this shit
Henry Bell
China's very very influential, but domestic issues are what brought this. China withdrawing due to their own issues just accelerated the falls. Its been simultaneous almost.
Joseph Edwards
Median falls peak to trough. Keep in mind this is only upto December so you can add another few percent to Syd and Melb safely upto February end.
Brandon Watson
Based user whats canberra looking like?
This shit hole seems to be holding up way too strong for my liking
Hudson Peterson
I just checked the rental market and unit/apartment prices are down 5-10% or so but the larger homes arent moving just yet :'(
Jose Sanchez
>In the short term, an increase in the household debt-to-GDP ratio is typically associated with higher economic growth and lower unemployment
Lower unemployment? Check
Higher economic growth? Check
What was that next part?
>... but the effects are reversed in three to five years.
Oh that sucks. What's 3-5 years from 2015? 2018-2020. Oh that sucks.
Asher Jackson
What are the prices for larger homes like there? A lot of unmotivated sellers Australia wide will find there's no capacity to afford their prior prices.
Jose Morgan
Did you lads know savage garden only made 2 albums and then broke up? I thought they were around forever cause they had so many hits. Fucking mental lads. It's like U2 making 2 albums then disbanding. Both their albums were straight #1 in Aus and around the world.
Kevin Bennett
My dad sells real estate on Sunshine Coast. Will he be okay?
Connor Ward
Yeah people are still gonna be buying and selling. And Sunshines much more affordable right now and will be in the future so there won't be dramas getting sales.
Eli Evans
Doing Gods work posting this lad, keep it up
Been to Syd before, its lovely
The dream is the market keeps correcting, linkies go astronomical, and we all retire to Coogee :)
Kayden Hill
500k+ for a small 2bed 2bath house.
Carson Stewart
Very affordable. My opion is we won't see much price compression until higher tier cities prices come down and become competitive with Canberra prices which force discounts as buyers choose the more preferable cities (this will happen all over the country).
Jack Campbell
You still think that's an appropriate price for a shitly built or poorly maintained house?
Tbh id like to see the median house price at 500k (currently at ~650k)
Charles Barnes
Nah what I think is affordable and what I think is the right price are very different. I've gotta get in the mind of the average investors and homebuyers to understand what they'll do, it doesn't really matter what I personally think.
Wyatt Lopez
replied to the wrong post lol
Justin Cook
wait im retarded excuse me
Where do you see us headed? Its difficult in canberra because the public service employs most of us so the markets are generally pretty stable
Julian Jackson
Like I said
Liam Martinez
>UBS has downgraded its Q4 GDP outlook following yesterday’s “disastrous” 3.1% decline in construction activity. UBS now expect a GDP print of just 0.3% with risks tilted to the downside. UBS has also reiterated its call that the RBA will be forced to cut rates in November 2019:
what a coincidence!
Gabriel Lopez
>Westpac has released its February 2019 Housing Pulse, which projects that Australia’s housing correction will deepen, with “prices, turnover and lead indicators for dwelling construction all sliding into year-end”. Moreover, “further declines near term” will “exert a more significant spillover drag on the wider economy”:
Connor Jones
Nathaniel Rivera
Consumer sentiment is a 45 year low regarding Housing being a good investment right now.
Hudson Thomas
How do we profit from this fall?
Nathan Foster
Don't buy property until its over. I genuinely expect the same logic that occurred in Ireland and USA to apply here. Even though properties bubbled over, the population will re-bubble it. Ireland again is in a bubble 10 years later, and USA is already spilling over in most places. Australia will be the same. If you get in at the bottom you'll quickly see the greater fools pile back into the pit.
Caleb Bailey
Price falls are already priced in. Look at the drop in loan amounts from Westpac.
BBSW is compressing and if it continues RBA will drop the cash rate, giving people some minor buying power increase to the floor, but more helpfully keeping them out of arrears if they're right on the edge. But then import costs go up and those savings get eaten up by discretionary spending anyway.
Jose Miller
Also note this is only owner-occupier, the reductions would be larger for investor loans, but it's impossible to speculate, just it'd be larger. And that means the biggest buyer cohort (investors) has even less, so the price reduction priced in is higher than this alludes to.
Nathan Bailey
Irish user here, this is playing out so similarly to our bubble ten years ago (which is now re-inflated). All the talk of "soft landings" and "cooling off" etc. I made out well from the collapse because I had savings and was able to buy a cheap house but friends bought in at the worst time. This will not be pretty but to be honest my dick is getting hard about all this chaos and boomer fucks being burnt badly. These cunts have sold out our countries to keep their boomer houses inflated in price and I am happy that they now get to experience some of the misery they have coming to them.
t. link marine and iexecutioner
Kayden Diaz
I owe a lot to the Ireland story. I've studied it fairly in depth. It's so much more reassuring knowing what's likely to happen so you can prepare for it.
I also started laughing when the narrative became "soft landings", direct quote from Irelands experience. I expect Australian developers will do the lease-to-buy strategy rather than sell at a huge loss, like we saw there, which is non existant in Australia for now.
Dylan King
You may be right but remember that most of the developers and banks will be desperate for cash. I worked in construction as a young man during the height of the boom and start of the bust and can tell you I was one of very few who saw it coming. All the tv economists were talking bollocks and these same cunts are back on tv again talking up our "great economy". The plebs never learn user so don't feel bad about looking after your future. They would fuck you over and laugh in your face if you tried to help them. These threads are so useful for keeping up with whats happening in Oz.
Austin Gutierrez
Some developers are in dire straights already and this has barely even begun. Its only been 18 months of moderate falls. But because Australians use the equity in their homes to pay for all sorts of shit their consumption dries up everywhere.
>As buyers disappear and miss settlement payments, some projects are sinking under their debts.
>“Once the sales rates and pricing dropped, it just couldn’t service all of its commitments,” said Philip Campbell-Wilson, who is liquidating one such new development, Gondon’s Elysee Epping.
>Campbell-Wilson is finalizing a list of creditors which include building contractors as well as financiers and debts of A$57 million ($40 million).
>Profits are falling, or forecast to drop at building suppliers CSR Ltd and Boral Ltd, and ancillary companies are also suffering.
>Garbage collector Bingo Industries Ltd on Monday reported a slowdown in building waste volume growth in the first half of its fiscal year, an announcement that halved the value of its shares.
>“It flows through everything,” said Jason Teh, Chief Investment Officer at Vertium Asset Management.
>Property classifieds sites Domain Australia Holdings Ltd and News Corp-owned rival REA Group as well as furniture seller Nick Scali are also feeling the negative effects.
>Grocers Coles Group Ltd and Woolworths Group Ltd have also reported slowdowns.
reuters.com
Aaron Ross
>Weak consumer confidence on the back of political uncertainty and a lending clampdown has sent house and land builder AVJennings’ half year profit crashing with the iconic Australian business foreshadowing a bounce back in the second half, but warning of a still softer full year result.
>On a brighter note, chief executive Peter Summers said the group believed the souring housing market was temporary, and was not “the new normal”.
>AVJenninngs (AVJ), which flagged the earning downgrade late last year, reported profit after tax of $1.4 million, down from $15.5m in the previous December half.
wew
Ryder Torres
This article is 11 hours old
abc.net.au
>Australia's construction sector has not only hit the brakes, it has moved sharply into reverse according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
>The value of residential construction fell 3.1pc in Q4 against expectations of a rebound
Construction work done in the three months to the end of 2018 was expected to rebound following a surprise fall over the third quarter, however the decline accelerated.
lol
David Price
Looks like you have 2-3 years of brutal losses before the bottom will be in. Nice and comfy.
Wyatt Richardson
The median Sydney home was $1,200,000 at the peak, and now with credit checks restricting borrowers from getting more than ~7x household incomes, the bottom is essentially pre-determined. It's just that properties are so illiquid that you can only have price falls incrementally week to week.
William Carter
>Six times the median gross household income in Sydney is calculated at $688,764. The median house value in Sydney is $1,058,306 and the median unit value is $774,124.
Nathan Nguyen
What jobs will be safe and excel in the market fall?