Can UBI actually work, economically?

No.

its only like 2 trillion if you just eliminate welfare that's barely a fraction of the budget

yeah if he also institutes it alongside the "social credit" system he wants to create and then implements strict authoritarian enforcement of even minor violations, to the point where 20% of the population is in prison

Two ways to hand out UBI free money.

1. Government creates new money.
RESULT: inflation as the shops and companies raise their prizes accordingly. UBI has become useless.

2. Taxes to raise the money. Again, as with all taxes, businesses raise their prices to put the burden on the consumer.

I honestly cannot fathom why actual legitimate economists are supporting this bullshit.

There's another thread where they're saying replace UBI with basic needs like food and housing. Communism V2, wonder how that will go, lmao.

Attached: 35026658_1148660768609373_5846724548954685440_n.jpg (720x419, 56K)

When you still can't understand the impact of AI and robotics on the economy you build strawman arguments to protect your own world view. This is a fundamental shift.

Oh, I understand.
I'm just much more pessimistic about the results. Just because of automation people won't stop being greedy. Communism won't magically start working.
Instead the robot owners become the new world elite and the wage slaves get even less power, as the demand of the labour market becomes virtually non-existent.
You do the math, comrade.

I understand robotics and AI. I also understand AI has limitations, as all technology does.

Attached: ourworldindata_share-working-in-agriculture-since-1300.png (3000x2100, 228K)

Sure dude Google assistant cant even point me in the right direction to Mac Donald's half the time. AI has a LONG way to go green dreamer.

It's fucking ridiculous. You're basically going to tax whites at 90% to create a government subsidized Cadillac leasing program.

Anyone who think all the poors are going to use the money for books and school instead of spinning rims and lottery tickets is delusional

Clarke's Third Law is: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. And, the argument there is that if it's a sufficiently advanced technology, you can't tell what its limits are. And I got to thinking about this because I would have debates with pundits who were saying, 'Oh, we're going to have superintelligence any minute now. It's going to destroy the world.' 'It's going to do this,' and 'It's going to do that.' And I'd try to argue against it. And they'd tell me, 'Oh, but you don't understand how powerful it's going to be.' Well, how do those pundits know how powerful it's going to be? So, as an example, I thought: What if we had time travel and we could bring Isaac Newton back from the past--the late 17th century--and transport him to today in, say, Trinity College Chapel, University of Cambridge. Trinity College Chapel had been around for a hundred years when he was at Cambridge. So, we'd transport him to the Trinity College Chapel of today; and it would look much the same. We'd probably turn off the electric light and just have a few candles around.He'd be very comfortable. It's--you know. And then, you pull out an Apple--the Apple being an iPhone, this time. And you show him the iPhone. Now, remember, Isaac Newton is the guy who figured out optics, personally--how light through a prism turns into many colors. now you show him the iPhone, and you show him this iPhone screen, which is bright in the darkness, with all these vibrant colors--that's something that he's never seen

But then you start using the iPhone for a few things. You play him a movie. Let's make the movie a country scene of England with common animals--badgers and, you know, English animals. But it's a movie, and he can see it. And so, the content is not surprising to him: the content of a movie is certainly surprising. And that this little screen is showing these creatures and the sound. Then play some music for him--that was around at the time that he was around, so that he'd know the piece of music. And it's coming out of this tiny little thing. It's amazing.
And they could go on the web. And you can find this--you go and find this personally annotated copy of his masterpiece, Principia. He--you know, he wrote Principia and then in his personal copy he then wrote in the margins, also, notes about it. Well, you show him those pages. His copy. It's inside this little thing in his hand. But there's all this other stuff. Show him more stuff. Like, counting his steps and, you know, the calculator and how quickly it can multiply numbers and stuff. You know, turn the camera on, and it would turn into a mirror for him. You record him and play himself back. Now, what would he be able to say about what are the limits on this device? You and I know some limits. You and I know that you have to recharge it. If you keep using it for a few hours, it goes dead. He certainly wouldn't think of that. How could this amazing device not just keep working? He won't know what limits to put on it, what it's capable of, what it's not capable of. He'll have no reference. He certainly won't be able to explain it.

youtube.com/watch?v=lAJkDrBCA6k
youtube.com/watch?v=Zt2HSTuGBn8
youtube.com/watch?v=17shdT9-wuA
What is coming is beyond human level understanding. It is quite literally impossible to understand so you are mistaken if you believe you understand it.

He wouldn't be able to begin to explain this thing. So, when you are asking questions about what it can do and what it can't do, he has no way of knowing, because it's indistinguishable from a magic device for him. And by the way--he was very interested in the occult.
And, you know, he was very interested in transmuting lead to gold. Maybe this device can transmute lead to gold? It can build this out of magic. Why can't it do that? What are its limits?
So, I think that's a good example of--really smart person. Show the person something sufficiently advanced, they are not going to be able to have an hypothesis of how it works, and not going to be able to know its limits. And I think too many of the arguments about the future of artificial intelligence today are made by people who just assume that can do anything. So you can't have a rational argument with them. Because, when you say, 'Well, won't it be able to do x?' they will say, 'Well, of course it will be able to do x. And it will be able to do y and z.

Excerpts from an interview that I think explains things well.

no

Attached: enlightenedpepe.png (1200x756, 622K)

ubi should only be given to entrepreneurs who actually make things

>Excerpts from an interview that I think explains things well.

link 2 interview

UBI in some form or other will happen,
This new wave of automation isnt like anything in the past, the human mind is being replaced. There literally wont be jobs for people with an IQ below 110-120.
This will happen at the exact same time as the economy becomes insanely productive. We will reach a situation in which GDP is massively higher but 80% of people cant find work. In a democratic nation people will vote for redistributionist policies and it will be feasible.
Even now UBI 1k/ month is somewhat feasible.
Total government spending including state level is around 7 trillion or so a year. UBI would cost around 2.5 trillion or so. The idea is to replace a lot of government programs with UBI; pensions, unemployment, welfare, disability, foodstamps, housing etc etc this goes on and one. Realistically if done right total government spending would only need to increase by about a trillion or so.. max.

econtalk.org/rodney-brooks-on-artificial-intelligence/

Boomers aren't going to want to give up what they currently have. I honestly think we have to wait for the majority of them to die off along with AI being everywhere.

Within ten years every boomer will be retired. Within twenty years most boomers will be dead.
The end of their influence is sooner than people realise. Anyways I am not saying UBI will happen now, only that even now it is more feasible than people think. 10 years or so from now it will not only be feasible, but expected by the population.

UBI will also de incentivize mass immigration. Right now elites in the west benefit a lot from mass immigration, under an automated UBI economy the elites and government would be directly incentivized to push for less people not more.. no more mass immigration.

There are literally hundreds of billions of $ going wasted to bureaucracy. Then more hundreds of billions going to the deep state/shadow government. The fact is we are all fucked with or without UBI. Might as well have UBI. And yes they'll figure out a way to fund it either by more wars or bigger taxes. Yang wants to tax tech companies more. Oh btw I'm not in United States of Israel so it won't benefit me at all lol.

Attached: fuckedup.jpg (6256x3240, 1.93M)

hyperinflation is great for bitcoin and gold.

Attached: sparechange.jpg (2856x1836, 1.08M)

According to Australian economics it will never work.

I hope the USA will do UBI and burn to the fucking ground. It will finally be our time once the US is ineffective.

Attached: 1547089868632.gif (720x780, 712K)

Australian economics is outdated lolbertarian trash.. same with austrian

>posts boomer economics
Hey bud, we printed 4 trillion for QE and 1 trillion for literal boomer bailouts called TARP. We can easily print money for UBI. If you don’t like it move to South America or go into a retirement home. The boomer era is OVER. No more austerity

Hey boomer retard, the 1k is a credit so people already getting over 1k in welfare get NOTHING. Go do some research or better yet kill yourself

I understand that it's beyond understanding bro

No. We understands ai Completrly. What YOU don’t understand is economics.

All of you faggots are running from a simple truth: the vast majority of humanity, the part of humanity with no coding skill, that cannot maintain and build the machines of the future, without the intellect to understand crypto protocols, will need to die. Thanos style.

And it’s whats going to happen whether anyone like someone it or not. The forces at work, human nature reacting with economics reacting with this technology, has made it inevitable.

As a NEET I not only condone Yangs running but dare I say he's Jow Forums's president?

Attached: 1522766499151.jpg (409x367, 12K)

>All of you faggots are running from a simple truth: the vast majority of humanity, the part of humanity with no coding skill, that cannot maintain and build the machines of the future, without the intellect to understand crypto protocols, will need to die. Thanos style.
Guess what moron, they have guns.

According to common sense Australian economics will never work.
But anyway the mainstream monetarism view of economics also refutes it, see Mate I'm not against printing money, as economic stimulus it's great. But it still causes inflation, that's the point.
UBI is the equivalent of eternal QE, cutting out the middleman way of banks buying gov bonds at reduced prices from the Fed (which is how they conceal their printing of money and giving it to big banks).
UBI is equivalent to cutting interest rates instantly to near-zero. If you think shopkeepers won't act accordingly and raise their prices as response to that you don't understand economics at all.

there are alot of good MMT economists from ausfailia

Well then everyone will kill each other retard.

This isn’t going to be a planned event you fucking dumbass. It’s just going to be a mass stavration/war reacting to the economic realities. Our current economic system has allowed far too many people to breed that is sustainable or economically feasible

seems to work with black people since something like over 50% are on some sort of gibs

Guess what moron, soon the robots will have guns.
And they're not afraid of dying, or serving without question.

based. fuck boomers

The end result of the decades of technological progress isn't going to be a collapse. If we can create a smartphone, we can innovate in the realm of economy.
People are not going to code robots that will kill their own families.

I'd do it if the pay was good.
Because I'm the coder my family gets to live, anyway. They need me.

You have literally no understanding of economics. Your posts in this thread are cringeworthy. QE and ZIRP cause prices to fall by causing excess capacity. You can try to do mental gymnastics to explain why people should not get free money but you will be laughed and and ignored. Boomers already implemented UBI for boomers, it is called pensions, social security, TARP, QE, and other boomer bailouts. Now it is time to bail out Gen X and Millennials. Get on board or get out of the way FAGGOT

QE causes prices to fall? Wait wait. Expanding the monetary supply causes prices to fall?
HAHAHAHA I'm not even going to reply to the rest

>Because I'm the coder my family gets to live, anyway. They need me.
Nope, that's not part of the deal. The AI is sentient now and it can rewrite its own code. Sorry, user.

But that's where the restrictions on creating a singularity come in. AI rewriting their own code might scare even the world elite. I'll take my chances.

UBI is tailoring human interaction to allow for maximum dependence on such things. by not instituting it, the machines will be built in a way that serves humanity more beneficially, because such systems need consumers and won't scale easily unless they're implemented in a way that is beneficial. changing the global economic paradigm massively in order to allow a fast scale up of such systems is a precursor to a mass culling and world enslavement by the elites who own it, whether that enslavement is literal or something like Brave New World. I realize the world isn't perfect as it is but UBI pushes us over a cliff that only goes against the interest of the common person.

>Boomers already implemented UBI for boomers, it is called pensions, social security, TARP, QE, and other boomer bailouts.

yes, and these programs financially crippled the generations that followed.

No and it's a scam.
They stole their whitepaper from Fabric Token, which also had bad economics.
And they are basically the same as FT except their devs are worse, they're behind on working products and they've faked a few partnerships.
Stick to high-cap coins, I used to baghold FT so I'm into this shit, it's not worth the time and money. Anything outside top 40 coins is not worth looking at.

The only people shilling against UBI are jews and people who aren't american.

UBI will work and the country will be unironically be saved.

Attached: 1543694877564.png (972x1176, 689K)

This. I think all of this technology will actually force a sort of meritocracy to happen. You will need to actually generate value. It won't be like boomers where you could kind of skate by for an entire lifetime. Or like the current system where anyone who isn't white gets power-ups.

Or our benevolent overlords will just kills us via 5G, Sun shedding its outer corona, processed foods w/unsafe pesticides, etc.

Yes, poors will spend it right back into the economy. The threat of AI is too large otherwise to do nothing about it.

this tbqh

Automation is going to be a huge problem for the future of the economy, but I think UBI is going to be worse.

I don't know what the solution is going to be once everyone starts losing their jobs to automation, but it's not UBI. There might not even be a viable solution to the problem, and 90% of humanity might just become obsolete and start living like third worlders.

UBI was only proposed by Friedman, because the welfare system is unfair. It creates a special class of shitskins that get to leech off of everyone else.
Friedman doesn't even like UBI, but if there is a welfare system, everyone should benefit from it equally.

Economically, yes. Politically, no.

NO. REDUCE TAXES THEREFORE REDUCING COST OF LIVING.

Make it so that prices aren't allowed to go up.

at least as well as perpetual war in the middle east with no spoils

Friedman proposed a negative tax, it was quite different to UBI

Austrian economics is economics for people who have never taken an Econ class. Tell me how it addresses the inevitable mass technological unemployment.

Found the boomer. You obviously work in an office that's way behind technologically. Fucking everything these days is about automating and cutting hours.

YANG 4 PREZ 2020!!!

yeah the math adds up but it's probably a very bad idea it would fuck us worse than communism.

your mass tech unemployment is currently a fantasy, hard to argue against a fantasy. What would likely happen though, is if no jobs are needed, the price of everything would be so low, you would only work for a little while and have enough.

Consider this example, 3d printed houses. Okay we took a lot of homebuilder's jobs away. but now you can buy a house for $1,000. but there's still a dozen other sectors that haven't been automated away.
at no point does welfare become necessary, besides maybe some program to alleviate the temporary jobs lost. but its not like these things happen overnight, so people have time to prepare anyway.

and mass automation is just a myth pushed by people who have little real world experience. we're nowhere near mass automation.

We are very close to mass automation. I've been working in the corporate world for several years now. Even simple programs like Alteryx a d UIPath are enough to automate a sizable percentage of office jobs.

office jobs are basically meaningless. it's construction and energy that are gamechangers.
when amazon wiped out retail, it just created a new internet economy

Meaningless? Tell that to the tens of millions of office workers in the US. You can't have a functioning economy when there are tens of millions unemployed. The truth is that there's no way we'll be able to have a capitalist economy without socia democracy.

Thanks user. Quality read and thought

So this is the power of HRT.....

the rich will have to pay for UBI if they want to avoid social unrest. They would not like to live in a place where you have 90% of people so poor they would start targeting you just to survive.

So it is better to pay 1k to everyone and live your peaceful life with your automated companies.

>all the horse breeders will go out of business!
Please, I'd love to not have to work, but a few data analytics jobs are not tens of millions, and its certainly not automating plumbing, roads, and all sorts of shit that accounts for most jobs that are not possible to automate. Robotics is not even close to being affordable or even capable of this sort of stuff.
Even if it does happen it will be so slowly that we will adapt to it and fix the problems beforehand.

austrian economics are retarded, but so is UBI. In order to solve the issue of automation, we need to initiate a Butlerian Jihad against the thinking machines.

It is indeed tens of millions. We are a service economy.

so why haven't the jobs been lost yet?

It would require a bunch of changes to other areas of the economy and labour laws(removing the minimum wage, for example) but it could potentially work. People who just work to live are probably not all that motivated to do a good job anyway and most people work to get better stuff, same as always.

Basically inertia. It's going to happen over the next few years.

Actually that's precisely what the elites want. Basically feudalism for the 21st century. You have a small number of people at the top who own all the industry, all the machines, etc and then a massive indiscernible horde of plebs with welfare checks whose only purpose for being kept around is that they'll spend their gibs on whatever shitty consumer goods you're shitting out. Hell, that's basically what we're starting to already have in some of the cities like San Fran and NYC.

Isn't he planning to implement it by stripping poor people of ALL benefits and replacing them with UBI? Government is already subsidizing billions of dollars worth of painkillers and grape soda. Throwing one trillion worth of state money into economy on top of that won't do much harm.

sounds like enough time to reskill...

Yes but only once AI takes most of the jobs, which honestly won’t be too far away

The "inevitable automation dystopia" theory seems to believe that the total number of possible work positions is finite. For every new machine created to substitute a job position, many other possibilities will be created. Take computers as an example, perhaps the tool that has provided us with the most automation power in history. Now compare the number of jobs eliminated by the invention of the modern computer to the number of jobs it has created (that is, about 50% of current jobs). Second, automation will reduce the cost of production wherever it takes effect. Automation in the car industry made them accessible to nearly everyone in first world countries. The positive externalities of automation will then:
1- Make products cheaper for everyone
2- Create more job possibilities from the technology developed
3-Take those jobs that pose a higher injury risk, leaving the safer ones to human workers (since the salaries for those are higher for taking the hazard risk into account, but these costs are not present when a machine is doing it)

It is perhaps the simplest economic principle, the needs are infinite while the resources are not, hence we will always need more labour force to supply for those.

Enough time to reskill for a responsible person with functioning brain. Not an average retarded dropout factory/trucker/customer service american.

A few problems with that. 1.) Most working class people don't have the time or the resources to upskill (and not earn money) rather than work and 2.) most people aren't intelligent enough to make a living out of programming. Your libertarian fantasy world simply doesn't hold up to reality. We are going to need to a massive safety net.

You do realise once automated cars become a mainstream thing it will start to become a problem? Have you fucking seen the AI that is around now? Imagine 50 years from now.
You should probably watch this
m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

The math has long since been in, stop taking the rhetoric at face value and take two seconds to figure it out. The 10% VAT, even after consolidating all the other public assistance programs (i.e. Jamal the Snap recipient gets more and Ethel the Social Security recipient gets the same) would only cover about 25% of the additional cost UBI represents. UBI would still add 2.7 trillion to the deficit annually.

if the elites didnt have that precognition, it is very likely they had no ability to hold their wealth. Which is why UBI is inevitable, either that or they find a way to wipe out all poor leeches with some poison or something, once automation kicks in.

Typical boomer response. This isn't comparable to the industrial revolution. We're talking about artificial intelligence. These are programs that are closing the loop entirely. Forget about more job opportunities being opened.

maybe. i could be wrong. BUT. i have no faith in the government to do it smartly. we're going to be fucked in that regard. especially democrats who have white genocide as their top priority.

The only problem with this thinking is that it assumes people are blank slates to be molded to whatever is needed. But the problem is the jobs that are being replaced by automation (or being moved overseas) tend to be the sorts of jobs that lower-IQ, unskilled plebs are qualified for. Okay, sure, let's say the vacuum gets filled by more technical white-collar jobs. Well, those people who were on the lower-end of the bell curve will not be able to perform those new jobs. What then?

>Create more job possibilities from the technology developed
This just doesn’t happen anymore, Innovation no longer “creates jobs”. The innovation we have now creates more wealth while needing less human labour. Netflix is a great example of this, netflix banks more profit then blockbuster ever did.

why did yang have to resort to pajeets shilling his campaign on fucking Jow Forums of all places...

> really makes you think