then provided you win 56 out of every 100 trades and your stop loss is the same as the potential profit, after 1000 trades you will be up 1362x; > (1 * 0.56 - 0.44) / 1 = 0.12 > (1 * 1.12^560) * (1 - 0.12)^440 = 1362
Given the fact that if you chose random positions and randomly longed or shorted each trade and had stop loss at potential profit you would already win 50 out of 100 trades, then if you throw in some TA and event driven trades you should easily be able to increase the odds to 56 out of 100.
All you need to do then is make ~3 trades a day and after one year you will be at this target. God speed anons.
>if i just know what coin will go up or down more than 50% of the time, i will make money no shit retard
Sebastian Nelson
if you choose randomly and have stop loss same as potential profit you already win 50% of the time retard did you not even read my post nigga tf?
Nolan Cook
yeah sure nobody ever thought about that. anybody can become a millionaire with a 1000$ investment and this system. it will totally work user
Joshua Robinson
new investement idea buy lotto tickets 50% chance guarantee you either win or lose
Adam Lewis
>imagine being this dumb
Ryder Clark
> what is trading fees > what is stop-loss hunts
yes, go for it user. Surely you have found the magic pill that traders have overlooked so long.
Blake Campbell
fees aren't an issue with maker rebate. >stop loss hunts so account for it.
Levi Martin
>if you chose random positions you havent understood what the kelly criterion is. you still have to measure what you degree of certainty is. this is where the work lies. most people aren't able to calculate it accurately enough to make the numbers work. this is why a casino has a house edge, to abrogate any kelly calculation.
go back and study more. good news is you're thinking about this in a better way than over 99.9% of /biz.
Ryan Morris
can someone explain kelly criterion in simple word?
Tyler Lopez
yeh if you chose randomly what I'm saying is the odds are 50/50 and kelly criterion comes to 0 so you basically shouldn't bet. But if you can shift the odds slightly to 56/44 then you have a massive massive edge.
The WORST case scenario is that odds are 50/50 in which case betting at all is a losing scenario or you bet too much.
>if you can shift the odds slightly to 56/44 you cannot, you can have 50.1 and 49.9 and fees will make the trade unprofitable you want to make money? be the exchange math is against you, unless you are the house edge
Elijah Walker
why can't you? I have seen plenty of traders in crypto who have better odds than that.
the exchange doesn't have an edge either. maker rebate on bitmex balances out whatever fees you lose as a taker.
Connor Jones
>But if you can shift the odds slightly to 56/44 LOL! that works out at an edge of 27%!!!! (56-44)/44
a 27% edge is unreal. you'll never see that. professional city traders on the LSE and NYSE would consider an edge of 5% to be the absolute highest you'd ever get.
i am ashamed sometimes to be a part of /biz. the idiocy is ridiculous.
James Roberts
if you do daily trading it's 50/50, if you do 3 trades per year than just follow the market cycle and make a shitload of money without gifting some rich nigga using math only is stupid
Jonathan Murphy
Except that the odds are not 50/50 when randomly betting on price development. The 50/50 number is only correct when you are looking at price development in a very short span, let's say 10-60 seconds. In that small time frame the odds are indeed 50/50, but you cannot improve on that number since it is completely random. Because of fees you will make a guaranteed loss in the long term. Knowledge, TA, astrology or whatever you use to predict price movement is only applicable on a longer time frame of at least 60 seconds. But that means that the odds of making the right prediction are no longer 50/50 when betting long/short randomly. Therefore your premise of 50/50 is wrong.
Jace Hall
read the thread nigger.
Ryan Brooks
Then what the fuck do you want faggot ? You can now consistently multiply your money, you should be out there spitting in the face of Bezos and the Rothschilds. Enjoy your trillions.
Jason Turner
I want someone to explain why it won't work
Xavier Smith
dude, come on! you start with the assumption of a massive (!) edge.... Kelly is not even the main question here ... it just tells you the optimal position size. But since your premise is flawed, what do you expect people to reply?
the answer has been given ...
Bentley Myers
56/100 is very very high user
Angel Gray
OP genuinely thinks he was onto something, and probably still does.
Sebastian Nelson
i don't see how it's high when if you picked randomly you would already win 50/100.
increase to 56/100 is not that much imo.
Kevin Nelson
gambler cope
Jacob Reyes
I suggest you just shut the fuck up noob, put your money on an exchange and try your strategy. You don't want to believe you're a retard so just try your strategy and become rich!
