Before you buy anything, make a brokerage account and read investopedia articles and/or the books in the OP list. If you don't have a broker, you can't buy stocks and if you blindly buy things without understanding how the stock market works or doing any research on the individual stocks you're buying, you will lose money and it will be entirely your fault.
daily reminder that yield curve posters are just following the herd, succumbing to group think, and will not make it. they never heard of yield curve inversions prior to this occurrence. all eyes are on it, including the risk parity guys, and portfolios have already been adjusted.
also, did you know the average interest rate was 6% during previous inversions? the 10yr is at 2 and change, it makes a difference. this is not to say that you should be balls deep, EVER. always have enough cash/bonds on the sidelines to take advantage of whatever situation may arise.
The reason the strategy works best by holding the bonds 3 years after inversion is because the recession usually happens 1 to 2 years after said inversion. The deeper reason it works is thus that you're selling and getting back in one year or so after the recession begins.
There's plenty of reasons for pessimism besides the yield curve, it's simply that it's probably the most clear signal we're going to get for a time frame.
Levi Howard
It depends which agency. FHA is a little bit better but Tennessee Valley Authority is probably the best. They'll give you yields a full percentage point above the ten year treasury, around 3.5 right now.
Austin Wright
i've learned that being pessimistic or optimistic doesn't do much for me, since i'm probably not going to apply that sentiment in a timely way and catch a top/bottom anyways. i hold 20% bonds/cash at all times and reallocate every so often to maintain that ratio.
Jace Ortiz
I can not factually back it up yet but Im afraid timefrme of yield curve wont work this time and main reason for that is Jerome fucking Powell
