Most intelligent Jow Forums poster here, I can answer any question. Ask me anything

Wrong. Fib “works” because of the similarity it shares to the percentile deviation of the mean from the first standard deviation.

And since fib works because of a similarity to a different kind of reading, why not use the dynamic deviation reading instead of a static reading?

>Elliot waves
>Fibs

Literally the best shit the public knows about. Do you think ANY firm would publish TA that is proven?
>b-b-but surely academics will do the research and publish it
NO, if you are smart AND interested in finance you are out in the real world making money.

When will the recession begin?

What is Love

tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6SIl2X3f-The-Holy-Grail-of-Trading-Advanced-Volatility-Theory/

You need to make stuff that works yourself.

Learn the math behind probability distributions and you’re golden.

Took me three years to become profitable, read the resources I wrote about in that link.

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>You need to make stuff that works yourself.

Kind of what I was saying but I am not the most articulate when I am super tired.

Basically what I meant. Academics don't shit in this game, they sit in ivory towers. The smart guys are finding/discovering stuff and making big money with it.

for us dumb guys, Fibonacci and EW are the best indicators by far.

it's a self fulfilling prophecy. if enough people use it it to find certain 'bounce' prices, it will actually work

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>subjective bullshit that let’s you project your bias onto a chart.
Wrong.
Ask 100 EW analysts to analyze a chart and you’ll get 100 different charts. No better than trading on coin flips.

Any sufficiently complex strategy will always appear correct due to the flexibility of its rules to guarantee 20/20 hindsight 100% of the time.

Ayy no fucking way that is true I have been trading for over two years and PRIMARILY use EW, FIbs and shitty RSI. Guess what I am up over 870% after commissions in those two years. Although it ain't crypto trading I just have a small number of long term holds its mostly forex.

If it was no better than flipping coins I would not have made money

JEsus that sentence is a cluster fuck.
>Although it ain't crypto trading I just have a small number of long term holds its mostly forex.

I trade forex. I only a couple of shitcoins long term, I do not trade them.

Just tell your opinion about ChainLink.
Also bull run when? Thank you.

why is OP always a faggot?

Then tell me why Elliot wave and Fibonacci work without resorting to “its natures law, everyone else uses it, it’s the golden standard, or it’s worked for me so far.”

Really, why does it work? Do you have the slightest clue as to why?

Any of the listed reasons are appeal to authority fallacies.

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They 'work' because standard fib levels with a 3% margin for error (good enough to eyeball) cover 30% of the total possible retracement values in a given range of prices. Iterate the placement of fibs in ever smaller portions of the biggest reference range and you can easily have more than 50% of possible retracement values appear significant according to fibonacci analysis. That price does something 'different' at these values is more likely than not, simply because of how a relatively high probability works out over a large sample set. Unfortunately, fib analysis can't really tell
you which of these arbitrary fib value ranges will interact with price, it can only confirm your bias.

“Draw enough lines on your chart and price will interact with some of the lines some of the time”

Sounds like you’ve found a real trading edge.

If you read carefully, you'll find that I've explained why fib analysis is not useful. I agree with you re: regression to mean. But then how do you determine mean regression in a non gaussian distribution?

>tell me why Elliot wave and Fibonacci work
pro tip: they dont.

Distributional shape is irrelevant, only distributional width is important. Hell, I’d even argue that the current percentile of deviation isn’t that useful of a metric compared to distributional width.

Hey OP,
Brainlet here trying to price options. In the pic related, when all t > or = 0, can you explain to me why this model generally can't cover perfectly all options?

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Absolutely this. The other 50% of the time you can blame some other factor for disrupting your fib prediction.
>muh whales are front running muh order block

How much will bitcoin cash be in a month?

I've never traded before in my entire life.
Do I buy bitcoin?

>shape is irrelevant
This wasn't intuitive to me but makes sense when I remember distance from mean ultimately determines pnl (premium shouldn't count for much if you size your bets correctly). Thanks for that.
Not sure why you think percentile deviation isn't as important as width. There's a few stories I can see conditions where either seem more important. Higher % deviation from mean is strictly less probable to happen (and thus more likely to return to mean) so it seems like a better bet to wait for that, but it's unclear how price will retrace.
Ditributional width seems to offer clearer targets, but you don't have the luxury of unlikely values to enter into. This seems like a better condition now that I've thought about it.
When you go to find mean, do you tailor it to the chart, ie. Find the mean that 'works best' to provide a tradeable distribution on a particular chart, or do you evaluate all charts according to the same model?

Because we dont live in a perfect market, and puts are always priced higher to the mean in case something happens (catastrophe)

Wil xcm make a megamoon?

nice try but wrong answer. Because for T < + infinity there is an infinity of probabilities that are equivalent to P on Ft where the actualised price is a martingale.

Oh man, great question. My dev created an indicator that turns distributional width into a relative metric, then turns 32 periods from 14 to 600 into a heatmap. I use the longest period with excessive distributional width to determine which mean to use. Check out the first link I posted and join my discord channel from my TV signature. You seem like an intelligent guy, I’d like to continue this conversation.

Thanks for lettting me pick your brain, I'll hop on tonight or tomorrow.

I bought BAT due to your analysis warosu.org/biz/thread/S12554615#p12556155
Hows the chart look using your indicators now?

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>5 hours later
>38 replies
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OP is a massive faggot.

Holy shit, you doubled your investment because of that chart.

tradingview.com/x/QcRjt1WM/

Trend is still defined laddie

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Yeh
I got price points in the 8k range and 10k but I expect strong resistance up from now on until V1.0