What would it take for LINK to be $1000?
1) SWIFT made 2bn pmt msgs p/a in the mid 2000s = 8 million msgs per business day. (Source: fincen.gov/sites/default/files/shared/Appendix_D.pdf)
2) SWIFT transactions added = US$5 T p/day in the mid 2000s. (Same source).
3) SWIFT made 15mm pmt msgs daily on avg in '18 (Source: swift.com/about-us/swift-fin-traffic-figures/monthly-figures)
4) We can see the avg SWIFT transaction in the mid 2000s was 5000 [bn US$ transacted per day] / 0.008 [bn transactions per day] = 625k US$ per transaction. ON AVG.
5) Interbank transactions cost approx 1.5% in fees when transacting 100k us$. Let's say it's a fixed 150 dollars, just to be conservative, so let's assume even those 625k transactions cost 150 bucks to carry out.
6) This means that today, a conservative estimate for the payment market is 150 (us$ cost per transaction) * 15 million (transactions per day) * 250 (business days in a year) annually which is 562.5bn us$. Let's say 560. Very conservative because we considered a fixed cost and only SWIFT *payments*. Not other operators, and not SWIFT securities transactions which are also huge.
7) There will be 1bn link tokens in circulation. Let's assume all tokens will be staked on nodes, generating passive income. Therefore the value of each token will depend on how much dividend they produce each year, like any fixed income asset.
8) Assuming link's risk profile isn't particularly low, a return rate of 7% p/a wouldn't be out of the ordinary.
9) Thus, in order for each LINK token to be worth 1k, each one needs to generate 7% (us$70) p/year. So US$70 * 1bn tokens => Chainlink needs to capture a 70bn market participation.
10) 70/560 = 0.125. In order for LINK to be worth 1k, it needs to capture 12.5% of SWIFT's PAYMENT MARKET. The real market also includes other operators, and also securities transactions NOT INCLUDED IN THIS CALCULATION. Chainlink's real target in order to reach 1k is more like 6% of the market.
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