Monty Hall Problem

Here's an easier way to think about it:

Say there are 100 doors, and a car is behind 1 of them. So you have a 1% chance of choosing the door with the car. The host then opens 98 doors so there are only 2 left. In this situation it's pretty obvious that it is in your best interest to switch, the door you chose only had a 1% chance of a car, but so the other door must have a 99% chance of a car.

for idiots masquerading as mathematical geniuses they'll tell you it's better to switch because your first choice was 1/3 and your second is 1/2.

what they forget is that the fact you saw a goat means your first choice was effectively 1/2 in the first place, because if you didn't see one, you won already. so you don't need to do anything.

Here's a modified problem to the Monty Hall that will make it easier for you to understand:
There are 100 doors, and a prize is hidden behind only one of them
You pick one door, and then the host opens up 98 other doors that have nothing behind them
Only two doors remain, the one you picked, and the one that may or may not have a prize behind it
Would you switch?

You go from a 1/3 chance to a 2/3 chance.

its still 50/50 retard 99% that the door you picked wasn't and 99% that the other is not the car either.

but that's not the problem at all, you've entirely changed the game you moron. the fact is in this scenario the third door always contains a goat, meaning you are 1/2 on whatever you choose, because whats behind the door is effectively being shuffled until you have a 1/2 chance at picking the prize. every. time.

Nope wrong. You sound stupid. Are you stupid?

But isn't it also the case that the door you didn't pick also only had a 1% chance of a car? Why then would the door you picked not have a 99% chance of a car?

no, you're just not understanding the problem, like every other chainlink holder in this thread.

the rules are laid out that completely remove any of the 1/2 vs 1/3rd nonsense in the first place. the game is effectively rigged to get the result shown above.

because this problem doesn't work when you scale it up. only one thing is revealed, and that's the entire point of the puzzle. one gets taken out and you're left with 50/50, but you always had 50/50 because in this problem you ALWAYS see a goat. that's the entire fallacy people don't seem to understan

Dude that's a great example thank you.

You're a fucking retard.

Attached: image (1).jpg (1024x1024, 1.21M)

Yes switch

That's how you teach it to kids.

You just said absolutely nothing. All I have to say is that you're definitely wrong because at the end of the day the real world has the final word and if you do this in the real world you get the prize more often than not. It happens in the real world. It should also happen in your head but some people are just RETARDED NIGGERS.

Holy shit you are dumb, and arrogant to boot.

I have to draw it out to explain it to you.

Use OP's picture to help you. You always pick door 1 first and the host always shows a door with a goat.

Imagine scenario 1 where you always stay:

Scenario 1a:
Car goat goat
WIN

Scenario 1b
Goat car goat
LOSE

Scenario 1c
Goat goat car
LOSE

You WIN 1/3 of these scenarios when you stsy.

Now imagine scenario 2 where you switch:

Scenario 2a
Car goat goat
LOSE

scenario 2b
Goat car goat
WIN

scenario 2c
Goat goat car
WIN

In scenario 2 when you switch, you WIN 2/3 times.

This is because when the host opens a door HE HAS TO OPEN ONE WITH A GOAT, therefore these events are no longer independent and new information is introduced.

here, because you're so retarded you don't understand why this puzzle is worthless

pastebin.com/qE2JtZKn

go run this and see what you get.

yeah, only it isn't

That's what I'm saying.

For everyone here frustrated with the 2/3 answer. Paul Erdos(famous mathematician) refused to accept the answer until it was shown to him via simulation

Are you trolling me?

Am I the idiot here falling for a troll?

We all had to code monty hall simulations in undergrad. This isn't new. The answer is switch for the reasons I gave you and the simulations agree.

the simulations that show it aren't relevant if they don't ignore all scenarios deemed impossible by the puzzle itself anyway. which is the point. it's not an interesting or novel paradox when it starts out by dismantling all of the natural outcomes that give rise to the 1/2 1/3rd discrepancy in clever wording.

He is famously retarded then. Classic case of old man can't think outside the box.

There are 3 doors, 1 with a prize.

My first choice of door has 1/3 chance of having the prize, BUT 2/3 chance of not having the prize. (1 prize, 3 doors).

And so, my FIRST choice has a 1/3 chance of being right. It's more likely to be wrong (2/3 chance).

At the same time, the other 2 doors I DIDN'T choose (because I can't choose more than one at a time) have a 2/3 chance of having the prize (it's one OR the other: 1/3 + 1/3 = 2/3, or 1 - 1/3 = 2/3).

When 1 door is opened (not the one I chose), after I've made my first choice, showing there to be no prize, it doesn't become 50:50. Why?

The OTHER door, which remains closed, but was not my FIRST choice, now "inherits" the entirety of the 2/3 chance of being the door with a prize.

And so, I should SWAP from my first choice which only had a 1/3 chance of being right. By doing so, I now have a 2/3 chance of being right.

it trips up a lot of people

Agreed

See

and like i said, they agree if you take the perverted version of the puzzle, and not the one outlined in the example itself

I'm not on a game show, I'm sitting here trading shitcoins, how is this relevant?

I get it, basically since your pick would be exempt from getting opened your chances are effectively diluted by the faggot host.

I don't care what they say about switching doors being the right solution, I'm convinced this bullshit is wrong, and I have the highest IQ in this thread. You've all been hoodwinked by jew nonsense.

I genuinely think every person who doesn't switch should be prevented of spreading their brainlet genes.

Everyone is avoiding the problem that the show is likely a scam

I understand that you should always switch but I never understood the probability science behind it

so much dumb money itt

THIS SDOESN'T MAKE ANY FUCKING SENSE!!!

So you have 3 doors.
Goats are behind 2 of them.
You pick door 1, and since host has to always open the door with a goat behind it, he opens door 3.
Now there's a 50% chance that the goat is behind both door 1 and door 2. Why the fuck are people arguing about this? And even if you choose the door with the car behind it, host will open the another door because that's his job, right?
So you lose either way?

If not, then why doesn't he open the door 1 you called the first time?!

There are 3 options:
-Goat
-Goat
-Car
The only option in which you LOSE by switching is when you picked the car from the beggining(1/3 chance)
If you picked a goat(2/3 chance) then switching will get you the car.
So in 2 out of 3 scenarios, switching is the better option and only in the last 1 switching will get u a goat

how do you know the host will pick the door you choose this time when last time he opened a different door than the one you called?

>pick goat
>he offers another door with the other goat

Say you’re now at the part where he asks you if you want to switch.

There’s a 1/2 chance you have the car and a 1/2 chance you don’t.

Once one goat door was opened, any of your prior odds go away. At first it was a 1/3 chance, but the second goat door is now opened. NOW it’s 1/2 chance.

For people struggling to "feel" this answer, consider a variation in which you have, say, 100 doors:

> 100 doors
> you pick one
> the host opens 98 other doors which are all goats (he knows where the car is, of course)
> you can swap or stick

Now, you had a 1/100 chance of getting it right to start with, and there was a 99/100 chance that the car was behind one of the other doors instead... of which, only one remains.

Attached: fatcontroller.jpg (458x458, 28K)

why the fuck does he open 98 other doors that I didn't pick in the first place you dipshit?

Ok that makes more sense. I feel it Mr. Crabs

nah, you've fallen for the fallacy. that's not the puzzle, the puzzle is three doors, of which one is guaranteed to be a lose, and opened early.

dont think of it as one round, think of it as two. one person picks a door out of 3, then one door is removed. then another person is asked to pick out of those two doors. if you think one of those doors has a higher chance of being a win than the other, you've failed.

Attached: sketch-1555582474988.png (1080x1822, 269K)

and yet as soon as you eliminate that one door both doors become 1/2.

>why the fuck does he open 98 other doors that I didn't pick in the first place you dipshit?

Because, like in the original three-door problem, the host opens ALL other losing doors. For n doors:

> you pick 1 door
> host opens n-2 doors, and never the winning one

Are you baiting?

but in the first problem he opens only ONE losing door. why?

>but in the first problem he opens only ONE losing door. why?

There only exists one losing door for him to possibly open. He can't open your door (obviously) and he can't open the winning door (obviously).

And I know you're baiting but I have nothing better to do than write to you.

I am not baiting, I just don't get how can people assume it's 2/3 chance in one door.
This pic explains it really well
, but it still is fucking bullshit, just because you know there is a goat in door 3 doesn't mean the chance gets higher in the door 2. It's still 1/3

>how can people assume it's 2/3 chance in one door.

People who think it's 2/3 are not assuming, they're arriving at it by reasoned thought. It's an assumption (fair but incorrect) that it would be 1/3 (or 1/2 in the end).

Draw out the simulations yourself and convince yourself of how it works, that's the only way.

It’s not an assumption. Just curious, do you hold ChainLink? And are you under the assumption that there is a strong probability you’ll get rich?

explain the rules of the show first then

From what I understand, no matter what your first choice is, the host opens a different door which is wrong. Then you are supposed to pick which door you want to open next but this time the host will actually open the door you've chosen. Is that it?

Attached: 1555564158076.jpg (239x1024, 78K)

do you think all people who say it's 2/3 actually tried it in a simulation? yeah, no, so it seems like an assumption to me.. real world doesn't work like this, maybe this shit works on paper but in real life both doors would be 1/3 chance

>do you hold ChainLink?
yes

>are you under the assumption that there is a strong probability you’ll get rich?
yeah but not just from chainlink, but I am 90% sure link will give me good gains in long run

Yes, that's right. OP explained how the game works.

> You pick a door (but don't open it)
> The host opens a losing door
> You then pick one of the remaining doors (either your original choice or the other one) and commit to it as the one to open

lol.

Imagine there are 100 doors, with 99 goats and 1 car. You pick one door, and 98 doors with goats are opened.

Now it should be much more obvious that you should change your selection. The same logic applies when there are only 3 doors.

>in real life both doors would be 1/3 chance

two doors, 1/3 chance each.

Attached: rarebrainlet.jpg (645x729, 41K)

Ok I believe it now after running a simulation, but I would've never arrived at that conclusion by myself desu

I keep first door. If I win car then I must pay gasoline for car and car ends up costing me more money than i was spending before.

If I win goat, I can fuck goat. I can also eat goat when food runs out.

>both doors would be 1/3 chance
>both
>1/3

Jesus christ go back to school.

kek thats so dumb

You’re 90% retarded. You don’t need to run a simulation to understand simple probability.

I hope this is a lesson for you. If you can’t understand simple probability, you likely don’t understand smart contracts, and you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Are the goats female? Are you allowed to have sex with the goat? Can you get both goats if you pick the car and want to trade it in?

This

no matter what door you pick, theres always gonna be a door with a goat behind it. they do that for the showmanship and to trip up contestants. youre an idiot if you think opening that door has any bearing on your selection.

But the question is. Do you keep the goat, and is the goat female? Car

Wtf retard? Host wasnt supposed to open the door you picked

>There are 3 options
-Goat
-Goat
-Car
The only option in which you lose by switching is when you picked the car from the begginng (1/3)
^ This turns into a 1/2 chance actually since one of the goats is removed since you already saw it at the third door, unless for some dumbass reason you still want to count the third door as a valid option after seeing the goat.

"IF you picked a goat then switching will get you the car" Well yes no duh.

This problem mainly is based on if the person answering the question still sees option 3 as a valid option in the overall equation.

Lets just break it down to be easier, with some simple logic no math shit, take the 1/100 one. most people would elimnate the other 98 doors right away since they've all been opened thinking it's only a 50/50 chance, but simple logic will tell you the host actively elminated those other doors with his own doing and left that other door close. He couldn't open your door because he chose it, but for that other door he actively left it close. Simple common knowledge would tell you to switch.

REEEEEEE YOU ARE ALL RETARDS

NEVER SWITCH DOORS

You have only a 2/3 chance to score hot goat pussy for life. But maybe some mathematician can figure out how to GUARANTEE it. Where's the mens warehouse guy when you need him????

I want the goat
Between him and some hamster friends i could start a mini petting zoo, buy him a gf, and then get some cows to moo and such

I got a 100% chance to score some hot goat pussy if i wanted, cause then I'd just select door three, and fuck the shit out of it.

In your case any door is someone with a loaded shotgun

um not if the goat is your perma waifu for life. Fuck the car

I'll explain it better for anyone struggling,

it's a 1/3 chance on the first door because you selected it, so the host can't open it.

it's a 2/3 on the other two because these are ones the host himself can open, he knows whats behind these doors so he'll open the one with the goat. This is why in the problem you have to choose a door first then the hosts opens one. Overall though it's still a 50/50 shot no matter how you slice it since no one in their right mind would select door three, it's just there at that point.

Before opening any dor you have 1/3 chanse to pick the car.

After the host opens one door you have 1/2 chanse to pick the car,

A lot of people ITT not realising the answer is actually 7/19ths

Attached: smugjak.png (226x251, 29K)

But that's not the game you retard.
If person 2 in your scenario has no previous knowledge (i.e. of round 1), his chances of choosing the right door are 50/50.
One of the doors though - the one that was neither picked in the first round nor opened by the host - still has higher probability of having the car inside (2/3)

explain to me why, if there are two doors, the 1% chance rolls over to the next question
there are two points in time
1/100
and then a do you want to switch from A to B

When you are at the second stage. how is it not 50/50

gonna try in simple terms for the brainlets

theres 2 goats so you probably picked a goat since it had a higher chance

fucking switch retard

But muh 2 gotes so fiddy fiddy

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