I feel that the majority of market participants are somewhat aware and educated now as opposed to in the past. Everyone has an idea that the crypto market is cyclical yet this was foreign to the majority of us who came in 2017/2018. When Charlie Lee called a multi year bear market and LTC falling to $20 I thought that he was insane. I saw it and never thought of it again. Now it all makes sense, and all the calls that people have been making and were right about now make sense to me and everyone else. Everyone "gets" it, now.
Look at the bitcoin chart in 2012-2016. Look at how sporadic and irregular price movements were. Now look at 2018, the perfect descending triangle, and now in 2019 the beautiful A&E bottom/ ascending triangle. This structures are painted because more people understand TA and trade accordingly. Look at Jow Forums, so many charts are being posted that never were in 2017 because most of us were ignorant. We no longer are, and it bothers me that this market has somewhat matured in this way.
Everyone is expecting another bull run in the next few years because the cyclical nature of this market has become commonsense. It is strange to me that everyone expects the next bull run as if it is not a case of if but rather of when it will happen. This level of optimism for the future sort of concerns me, perhaps we won't see another bullrun
There is no point to this thread really. Just writing down my thoughts.
i too been wondering the same thing. if everyone calls for 100K, how is that different psychologically than 2 years ago at ATH. the cycles arent of fiat value, but instead psychological. its about peoples expectations. the market crashed because people feared it was worth nothing and would go to zero. the ones that are left are the people who see the true value in DLT. so while yes delusion still runs high, its still much much lower proportionately than that of 20 months ago
>I feel that the majority of market participants are somewhat aware and educated now as opposed to in the past It's not necessarily the "majority" of market participants, just the ones who experienced the last cycle and learned most from it. As you yourself mentioned, Charlie Lee was already aware of its cyclical nature in 2017, because he had been in crypto for years by that time.
Every day, new and uninformed people are moving in who don't know this. This will especially be the case during a bull market when normies flock to crypto once again. However, it could very well be that their funds are so minuscule that it won't affect the overall flow of the market.
I do agree with your thoughts concerning the market sentiment though. There was nowhere near this amount of optimism and feeling of certainty after Mt. Gox, but perhaps this echo chamber distorts our views on the wider opinion.
David Phillips
i dunno what you mean by "everyone" because the crypto market cap wasnt even 1trillion at the 2017 peak. youre probably right that the smarter people are the only ones still in at this level at this time.
Carter Miller
>perhaps we won't see another bullrun
It's possible that there won't be global bull run anymore, but local bull run (limited to a particular coin) when adoption occur.
In any case anyone calls for 100K like said, but this coin is obsolete. It's pretty obvious. Nevertheless, there are coins in the top 50 with lots of potential IMO.
Levi Hill
>perhaps this echo chamber distorts our views on the wider opinion I think this is very possible. At the same time I have had the same concern. I think that the news etc are more aware that it is cyclical in nature now, and I do not think anyone with credibility dares to write that bitcoin is going to zero or that it is a failed asset class anymore, because you can only be proven wrong so many times. My final point of consideration is that it may be a self fulfilling prophecy, if everyone expects another bull run maybe institutions and big players will too, it is more concerning in the aspect of when will all these big players decide to take profit.
Lincoln Edwards
Imagine long term, for real. It's 20 years later than now. You're in your 40s, hopefully. No more than 21 million BTC has EVER been created. You really think BTC will be $5,000 then?
Aaron Davis
I feel that the crypto space has expanded so much in 2017/2018. Of course it did, just as it probably did in 2013. Except, I don't know. It feels different. It feels that it has already become saturated, that it has already matured. This has happened in 2013 and in 2017, why should it happen again in, say, 2021? It feels like it won't since there are just so many people expecting it. It feels off that so many people can be right.
Yes, more uninformed people will join, but the informed "class" has expanded so significantly that it doesn't feel so separate from the uninformed. (By informed, I don't mean extremely knowledgeable, but rather sort of "in the know". They "get it " even though they might be stupid.) It doesn't feel "special" in a sense, or "elite" because it is so large now. The amount of uninformed newcomers that will come in the potentially upcoming bull run will probably be proportional to the amount of people in the informed "class", but it still feels that it is too saturated.
Bitcoin couldn't function at $20k, how could it possibly have any use whatsoever without external layers at $100k? Why would a coin like that pump to such a high price? I know that this market is 95% speculative, but there is a limit to how far speculation can take bitcoin.
Can Bitcoin scale? There is no reason for it not to die and be replaced by superior coins other than its name and first-mover advantage, or perhaps even a superior technology that renders cryptocurrencies obsolete. The latter is not worth thinking about, but the former is a valid point that needs to be addressed. Bitcoin fundamentally has nothing going for it aside from its name. Whether it is being crippled by blockstream or BCH is the real bitcoin, I don't know.
Bitcoin functioned just fine at $20k. Full blocks are good, $20 txn fee is quite fair for what Bitcoin offers- immutable, permissionless, borderless transfer of value. It is protected by an obscene hashrate that guarantees it is secure by the laws of thermodynamics. It is not for street shitters.
Julian Morales
>$20 txn fee is quite fair for what Bitcoin offers Fair point, actually. But this means that it isn't suitable for mass adoption.
Sebastian Sanchez
that's exactly why I don't know if i short or go long.
few days ago I read that block stream will probably set a floor for btc trading in the future, I mean, block stream is funded by powerful people.
thing is: what those powerful people want?
some people think the stock market will crash,
idk, maybe bitcoin is preventing/delaying that crash
or maybe the big players are transferring money from the stock market to crypto
I mean, look at tether, IT IS a scam, but those who run the game keep it functioning
maybe tether is run by those people
or maybe they will use tether to cash out and crash the market when the ideal time comes (when euphoria strikes most people on a multi trillion market)
what u guys think?
Evan Parker
You're still stuck in the 2017 newfag mindset, user. Bitcoin is King, there are promising alts but Bitcoin will NEVER go away. It has functioned at near 100% uptime for a decade.
All in all, while this realization of Bitcoin's cyclical nature seems somewhat odd, then I think your point about it being a self-fulfilling prophesy is very valid. If everyone tells you that it will go up and up forever, and then it actually does start going up, then would you not buy? I can understand the sentiment brought out in that it feels unnatural for so many people to be right, but at the same time, going to astronomical heights such as $100k+ isn't possible without a whole lot of people believing in it.
Although it could be that Bitcoin has exhausted its potential and while there are still massive gains to be had, they are in niche and yet-to-be discovered smallcaps. This would fit the narrative that the crowd can't be right while at the same time keeping with the overall cyclical nature of the crypto market. Bitcoin has been leading this market for all of its history, but it's not a given that this will continue indefinitely.
$20 tx fees certainly don't make for a decent peer-to-peer electronic cash. I'm not even trying to shill BCHSV or whatever else here, it's just that Bitcoin obviously hasn't achieved the aims laid out in the white paper. The digital gold meme does hold some weight though.
Henry Harris
That picture was me, it took me a whole year to go through the process, but I learnt and my wallet paid the iron price for my foolishness.
Bitcoin king, what is dead may never die, but rises again harder and stronger
Adam Morales
BCH exists for this reason, and has some good devs in their community. The digital gold meme is what will push this to $100k. Chad and Stacy aren't going to use Bitcoin at Starbucks, ever. If anything they'll use something like xDai that is pegged to fiat.
Nathaniel Hughes
Dafuck are you both talking about? December/January was a catastrophe for people who were trying to move BTC. More than 100k transactions were in queue and if you didn't send it with enough transaction fees, you needed to wait for weeks unless you 'prioritized' your transaction by paying additional fee. No, it was far from being OK and if BTC is to compete as a medium of exchange, it needs to increase the tps according to demand...
As for whether another bull run will come or not... I am 100% sure we will see another bull run. ETFs, pension funds... Those will be the biggest bagholders. The exposure is still too low and there are tons of money to be made by investors who accumulate now to dump on Normans later...
Austin Allen
I am almost entirely in alts so I'm a hypocrite, but I have done extensive research into them. For now I'm accumulating BTC and ETH.
Chase Morales
BTC is pure scarcity. Fiat is complete monopoly money. The more money that is printed will push BTC higher. This is because fiat is worth less, so it takes more to buy the same BTC.
To me BTC is a bet on inflation and nothing more. But that's a lot.
Juan Flores
>Bitcoin couldn't function at $20k, how could it possibly have any use whatsoever without external layers at $100k? Why would a coin like that pump to such a high price? I know that this market is 95% speculative, but there is a limit to how far speculation can take bitcoin.
Yeah that's what i meant. There would be coins which will moon in the top 50, but not the current number 1.
Wait till serenity and the flippening for some movement. The smartcontract platform will lead the dance.
1 usd made it "real" to the early early adopters and developers. 1000 usd to everyone 11-13~? 19,000 usd made it "real" to everyone posting on Jow Forums right now, and maybe even the wider public.
At 1k people still didn't give a shit THAT much, it dropped back to 200 or w.e. which this board basically fucking died. It was still BUTTCOIN afterall. It wasn't until 19k that it became very real for everyone, including your grandma and whoever else. Maybe they heard 1k but they didnt care. Less people didn't care at 19k.
1k was the first bubble with massive media attention. 1k was the first bubble to people in general. Now its different after 19k. People, on some level, no longer believe it's just a one off, because it can't be, (even biz posters), it's happened twice to them now (and x times for the earliest adopters)......
Its not the same undertone anymore
Nicholas Ward
100k street shitters couldn't afford or weren't willing to pay up. I moved BTC in an hour back then.
You're projecting.. You know more and have educated yourself.. thumb up, that's great. The majority of people in the market are still complete idiots.. who FOMO and FUD exactly when they are told time after time.
Michael Allen
Just go all in bsv close the chart come back 2021
$700
Xavier Cruz
see "that it became very real for everyone" It's the scarcity that makes it real
Caleb Mitchell
I'm not that educated, I'm just not completely clueless, and this is what I mean by "somewhat educated". People are not clueless. But I suppose this is normal. I imagine that the clueless of 2013 stopped being so clueless in the 2014/2015 bear market.
Jordan Anderson
Nope, I bought in 2013 and was promptly dumped on, people on reddit were laughing at everyone who FOMOd in and like the normie I was I listened to them and forgot about it until it hit $2k in 2017.
Ayden Hill
Damn, I actually think you truly believe what you're writing... fuck
Get out of your echo chamber! You are being fed a pack of bullshit lies and ignoring genuine posts from anything that threatens your faith.
Take a step back and think long and hard about that coin, it's ramifications, its reason to exist. It doesn't fucking have one - it is not 'Satoshi's Vision'. There's a reason it is being delisted and it's not just because some nigger is calling himself the bitcoin creator and can't prove it
Joshua Miller
I was going to say partly why it feels different now in my opinion is that people really aren't in the same mindset to gamble on some dice game anymore or anything like that. Whether that is because BTC costs more in fiat or whether people would rather gamble on holding and seeing a new ATH I don't know, just feels like people aren't willing to part with their bitcoin nearly as easily as anywhere up until 19k. Even 1k, after the hype died back down it went back to just being "whatever, ok, it went high once so what?" kind of sentiment for just about everyone, except maybe miners and the earliest adopters or people working in the crypto space on other shit
It just feels different to how it did after 1k
Michael Clark
Yes, the undertone is completely different. The atmosphere and climate is different. The market may be cyclical but with each cycle the market matures and the atmosphere changes.
Logan Foster
If you knew how bad things are..
Alexander Wright
This isn't my opinion dude.. That's literally why people read books by the best investors. Because everyone wants to know their secrets. 90% of people lose money on the market due to lack of discipline... "education" isn't shit dude.. I know drug dealers (my best friend) who doesn't deal anymore because I got him into the stock market.. He's better than most people because he understands the game.
The clueless that stayed*. Most people left the market, but a lot stayed. I looked at prominent twitter accounts and their follower counts went up 10-20x from 2017. Those that stayed are no longer clueless, the ones that left are the proverbial normalfags.
Sebastian Phillips
What do you think?
I mean, tether is alive because someone allows them to be.
Someone wants to pump this market
My personal opinion is that someone wants to short 1 million btc straight to zero.
The other option is that people with power will use bitcoin to stop inflation and global debt
Mason Evans
I wish I had stayed :(
Xavier Ortiz
How is tether a scam? You sound retarded.
Kevin Sanchez
Tether is propped up yes I know that much I think it's the same people behind the money printers who will attempt to crash crypto with itl The people behind tether don't give a fuck about you and me They will fail though and as other people have said btc will come back stronger that's what i think anyway
Christopher Wright
That girl masturbates with her vibrating controller
Shitcoins also are not going to pump anymore other than coins that have been around for a while. Tech and use case is going to matter a lot more from now on.
Charles Collins
Tether is definitely a scam, user. It's probably going to outlive the next bullrun but it is going to collapse at some point.
Aaron Robinson
I turned a little gambling money into a pile of gambling money, because I saw long term value in decentralizing the economy, built by decentralized institutions. The market lost interest in that, so I just rode the bubble to the top and cashed out. Just because I'm not hodling, doesn't mean I've given up. Like any technology, programmable money has to go through the prototype phase. The proof of concept has mixed results. There is lot's of demand for autonomous, opensource money, but it's just not good enough to function safe, fast and cheap on a mass scale.
>I mean, tether is alive because someone allows them to be >Tether is propped up yes I know that much If there were some big players propping up tether it would never have had all the trouble with banking and auditing that it had.
Good argument tripnigger.
What's makes it a scam? It wouldn't surprise me that they operate as a bank with fractional reserves, but aside from that I don't see anything. Even if tether caused the 2017 bullrun, that is over now and so whatever part tether pay have played in it is now irrelevant.
Cooper Rivera
Listen, you won't fully understand how to take advantage of situations and make money if you don't accept and realize that you're going to have to take that money from somewhere.. Most people get their wealth siphoned off by smarter people who know how the markets work and know how most people are either passive investors who don't pay attention to their own money or are wanna-be day traders who are going to get burned like a gambler.. If you really are intelligent, you're like me, and you suffer from the higher end of the dunning kruger effect. You give people too much credit. Stop... People are fucking stupid and they make bad decisions... I didn't want to accept this at first, because I'm not like that. You wouldn't want someone to do it to you though you say... They are and will.. Survival bro... humans are cut throat. Sharpen your edge or gtfo.
Jayden Ross
that "trouble" existed to create leverage and transfer power it's a scam and some major exchanges are involved with it. everyone who's been in the space a few years and knows about finance in general and how govts use leverage knows it's gonna pop. we just don't know when.
Jordan Roberts
To add more, memes, partnerships, nobody gives a fuck anymore. 2019 and on might be the years of tech and use case.
Isaac Gray
You all are idiots. Crypto will moon when the US Dollar collapses, which will happen in the next decade. USD hyperinflation is coming. You know what doesn't inflate? BTC.
Leo Murphy
Do elaborate. What do you mean by leverage and transfer power? How exactly is it going to pop? What is there to pop? You still haven't answered my question of what makes it a scam.
It sounds like you know exactly why we think it's a scam, but for some reason have reached a different conclusion. Perhaps we have a different definition of the word "scam"? >fractional reserve banking >not federally insured >not backed by a legitimate banking institution >refuses to go through a third party audit >publishes PIC RELATED as evidence that they aren't insolvent >Dear Sirs:
>There was nowhere near this amount of optimism and feeling of certainty after Mt. Gox, but perhaps this echo chamber distorts our views on the wider opinion. No you are absolutely correct. People genuinely thought the whole thing ass fucked after gox. This is blinding optimism by comparison
Gabriel Russell
If the 2017 bubble popping was to have been due to tether it would flash crash much more or tether would shut down.
Yet, here we are.
The "true, true bubble pop" may be because of tether crashing the market.
Price moves bring news most of the time.
If this party was over tether would not be here
Chase Howard
Oh yeah, >Yours faithfully, >the bank It's obvious that these faggots are insolvent and printing fake tokens to keep the scam going as long as possible.
Alexander Torres
>fractional reserve banking Likely, wouldn't surprise me. >not federally insured Do you honestly expect this of a cryptocurrency? Besides, doesn't America prohibit anything resembling USD? >not backed by a legitimate banking institution It's a small no-name bank, but large banks are not crypto friendly. They did break off with Wells Fargo after all, though there could be a shady reason for that. >refuses to go through a third party audit Probably hiding something, sure. >publishes PIC RELATED as evidence that they aren't insolvent That is a statement released by their bank. They had at least at that moment enough funds to cover all the tethers in circulation. Perhaps they borrowed money and deposited it. Or they bribed the bank to write a false letter. It isn't forged since the banked confirmed its legitimacy.
What exactly is the "scam"? Fractional reserves? I'm curious to know what was talking about.
Samuel Gomez
>That is a statement released by their bank No, it is a fabricated lie written by some street shitter at a literal who offshore banking (financial fraud) institution in the Bahamas and posted on the Tether website in .pdf form. It is completely fake.
Ethan Walker
agree, except i don't think there will be a true btc bubble pop personally. it has price memory, people don't agree on how to price it (unlike metals/stocks/bonds) so it just reverts to like 20% it's last ath or whatever then climbs.
at first i thought you were trolling or pretending to be stupid so i ignored you but ur actually retarded so let me explain: they ain't got what they say they have
Levi Edwards
It is Tether's bank, and if the letter had been fabricated then the bank would not stand for it unless of course it is in on whatever the scam that tether is pulling. But there is no evidence for this. As for the legitimacy of the letter: >Yet in a subsequent conversation on Nov. 1, Deltec chairman Jean Chalopin shared a link to the letter with CoinDesk, saying “Tether came public with an announcement and I wanted to make sure you saw it.” >While that message appeared to confirm the letter’s authenticity, Chalopin did not say so directly – until Saturday, when he sent CoinDesk a subsequent message, writing: >“The letter published by Tether is authentic.” >Chalopin’s confirmation means that for the first time in months, Tether’s banking relationship is public knowledge and has been confirmed by the banking partner in question.
This isn't very convincing, but it once again points to either Tether's legitimacy or collusion with the bank. Either way, what is the scam? If it is fractional reserves that makes it a scam then fine, it is a scam, but it isn't significant or really all that important. It's what every single bank in the world does.
You didn't elaborate on what you said . I'm curious, but it seems that you're just full of shit.
The next bullrun will coincide with the next reward halving. Thinkaboutit. Bitcoin will need 2x as much energy per coin produced. So therefore miners will begin to ask for at least 2x as much money for one. Simple supply and demand. If tether is still around they will pump and dump again because why not? This will cause any coin with a btc pair to rise in the wake. In the meantime coins will rise and fall based on their own general supply and demand factors. yay
