I feel that the majority of market participants are somewhat aware and educated now as opposed to in the past. Everyone has an idea that the crypto market is cyclical yet this was foreign to the majority of us who came in 2017/2018. When Charlie Lee called a multi year bear market and LTC falling to $20 I thought that he was insane. I saw it and never thought of it again. Now it all makes sense, and all the calls that people have been making and were right about now make sense to me and everyone else. Everyone "gets" it, now.
Look at the bitcoin chart in 2012-2016. Look at how sporadic and irregular price movements were. Now look at 2018, the perfect descending triangle, and now in 2019 the beautiful A&E bottom/ ascending triangle. This structures are painted because more people understand TA and trade accordingly. Look at Jow Forums, so many charts are being posted that never were in 2017 because most of us were ignorant. We no longer are, and it bothers me that this market has somewhat matured in this way.
Everyone is expecting another bull run in the next few years because the cyclical nature of this market has become commonsense. It is strange to me that everyone expects the next bull run as if it is not a case of if but rather of when it will happen. This level of optimism for the future sort of concerns me, perhaps we won't see another bullrun
There is no point to this thread really. Just writing down my thoughts.
i too been wondering the same thing. if everyone calls for 100K, how is that different psychologically than 2 years ago at ATH. the cycles arent of fiat value, but instead psychological. its about peoples expectations. the market crashed because people feared it was worth nothing and would go to zero. the ones that are left are the people who see the true value in DLT. so while yes delusion still runs high, its still much much lower proportionately than that of 20 months ago
>I feel that the majority of market participants are somewhat aware and educated now as opposed to in the past It's not necessarily the "majority" of market participants, just the ones who experienced the last cycle and learned most from it. As you yourself mentioned, Charlie Lee was already aware of its cyclical nature in 2017, because he had been in crypto for years by that time.
Every day, new and uninformed people are moving in who don't know this. This will especially be the case during a bull market when normies flock to crypto once again. However, it could very well be that their funds are so minuscule that it won't affect the overall flow of the market.
I do agree with your thoughts concerning the market sentiment though. There was nowhere near this amount of optimism and feeling of certainty after Mt. Gox, but perhaps this echo chamber distorts our views on the wider opinion.
David Phillips
i dunno what you mean by "everyone" because the crypto market cap wasnt even 1trillion at the 2017 peak. youre probably right that the smarter people are the only ones still in at this level at this time.
Carter Miller
>perhaps we won't see another bullrun
It's possible that there won't be global bull run anymore, but local bull run (limited to a particular coin) when adoption occur.
In any case anyone calls for 100K like said, but this coin is obsolete. It's pretty obvious. Nevertheless, there are coins in the top 50 with lots of potential IMO.
Levi Hill
>perhaps this echo chamber distorts our views on the wider opinion I think this is very possible. At the same time I have had the same concern. I think that the news etc are more aware that it is cyclical in nature now, and I do not think anyone with credibility dares to write that bitcoin is going to zero or that it is a failed asset class anymore, because you can only be proven wrong so many times. My final point of consideration is that it may be a self fulfilling prophecy, if everyone expects another bull run maybe institutions and big players will too, it is more concerning in the aspect of when will all these big players decide to take profit.
Lincoln Edwards
Imagine long term, for real. It's 20 years later than now. You're in your 40s, hopefully. No more than 21 million BTC has EVER been created. You really think BTC will be $5,000 then?
Aaron Davis
I feel that the crypto space has expanded so much in 2017/2018. Of course it did, just as it probably did in 2013. Except, I don't know. It feels different. It feels that it has already become saturated, that it has already matured. This has happened in 2013 and in 2017, why should it happen again in, say, 2021? It feels like it won't since there are just so many people expecting it. It feels off that so many people can be right.
Yes, more uninformed people will join, but the informed "class" has expanded so significantly that it doesn't feel so separate from the uninformed. (By informed, I don't mean extremely knowledgeable, but rather sort of "in the know". They "get it " even though they might be stupid.) It doesn't feel "special" in a sense, or "elite" because it is so large now. The amount of uninformed newcomers that will come in the potentially upcoming bull run will probably be proportional to the amount of people in the informed "class", but it still feels that it is too saturated.
Bitcoin couldn't function at $20k, how could it possibly have any use whatsoever without external layers at $100k? Why would a coin like that pump to such a high price? I know that this market is 95% speculative, but there is a limit to how far speculation can take bitcoin.
Can Bitcoin scale? There is no reason for it not to die and be replaced by superior coins other than its name and first-mover advantage, or perhaps even a superior technology that renders cryptocurrencies obsolete. The latter is not worth thinking about, but the former is a valid point that needs to be addressed. Bitcoin fundamentally has nothing going for it aside from its name. Whether it is being crippled by blockstream or BCH is the real bitcoin, I don't know.