I'm not a fan of conspiracies or FUD. I think crypto will always have some use and value (if only for anonymous transactions) but this week has been a wild ride. I'm pretty sure what went down this week was as follows:
>USDT gets JUST'd Tether FUD makes everyone move their money to BTC, which drives the price up and kicks off the moonshot, perfect timing since BTC was already on the way up.
>Binance locks funds Binance locks funds due to an enormous heist that no one can find transactions for. BTC was already mooning at this point so anyone still holding stable coins puts their stuck money into BTC for free gains. Important to point out: No new money is entering Binance at this point which means the only thing pushing BTC up is people selling alts and running from USDT.
>US threatens to ban crypto US threatens to ban crypto seemingly randomly, after countless officials have said they are okay with BTC. Market can't react properly because largest exchange has blocked withdrawals and largest stablecoin is being gov'd.
BTC is basically guaranteed to lose momentum at this point because no new money can enter Binance. Everyone has already pulled out of alts and USDT so where is the money to propel us through this resistance going to come from? This is happening just as we start to take on the most important resistance at ~6400-6500.
My guess for the next 5 days: BTC hits resistance at ~6300-6500 and slowly bleeds or crabs for most of the next 5 days. As always, while BTC is crabbing, people get greedy and move money to alts. Except, unlike in the past, the people who would have sold have their money stuck on the Binance so a few "promising" alts pump super hard (look at LINK and BAT over the last day).
Next week Binance allows withdrawals and people panic, afraid their money may get locked up again possibly for good. Combine this with USDT FUD and possible legislation from Uncle Sam and we get a serious run on the markets. Inevitably BTC and alts crash.
That's very nice OP. Now get on with your homework and go to bed.
Wyatt Howard
I feel like people are not paying enough attention to the current chain situation. Blocks are slowly getting full. The transaction fees will start to climb again. This can not be good for the price. Especially since there isn't much near term scaling solutions to look forward to.
Total market cap yes new money, and when you exclude btc u see it plateau or decrease hence btc drives the gains aka money entering into btc. Jesus how the fuck u ppl gonna make it when u can't spot such an obvious trend.
Zachary Morgan
> No new money is entering Binance at this point
This has been the case after the first big leg up actually. The market has only been moving money from alts into Bitcoin, but the market cap has been fairly stagnant. The lack of new money flowing into the market is making me doubt the validity of this climb a lot. It seems like the whales just pumped up the price initially and people slowly started to transfer their alt money into BTC making it grow. Could also be people exiting Tether that is hiking the price, but this doesn't seem like a legit bull market to me at all. If during the next drop the market doesn't heavily transfer money back into the alts, we're going to see them punch far lower than where they currently are.
Explain one thing to me: For the past two days money has only been flowing IN to crypto via purchases on other exchanges (total market cap has barely budged, suggesting my theory is right and new money is hardly entering). At the same time no one on Binance can pull money out. There has been no way to get money OUT for most people.
When Binance money gets unlocked next week, why would BTC keep pumping when the chance to deposit money has always been there but the opportunity to withdraw them just opened up?
Angel Myers
Exactly. This just feels like the market panic buying in to BTC because USDT isn't safe and alts are bleeding. When the Binance money is unlocked what is stopping a massive selloff?
Like I said in another post, new money can enter the market now but money can't leave. So when these forces are given a chance to equalize why would things favor buying? Doesn't add up.
Carter Cook
Look on your chart retard btc m cap is rising
Look on above chart posted by annon you clearly see btc rising while all other stay almost flat when exluded btc that's cuz btc drives the gains and it's m cap increases with new money otherwise you would see a drop in the chart that excludes btc. BAKA
Henry Baker
good thread >US threatens to ban crypto seemingly randomly, after countless officials have said they are okay with BTC. is anyone taking this kvetching seriously? (((he))) just sounds like a boomer shilling for (((his))) sponsors and dumping on crypto does (((he))) have any actually capability to do anything besides shill for his sponsors?
Jason Green
Because it's getting money from alts, just like I mentioned. Look at the market cap during the first big hike. It hit about 180 billion and hasn't gone up since. Does that seem like a legit bull market to you? Everything jumped up initially and then stagnated like a motherfucker with only internal money moving around. There's no new money coming in.
Levi Gomez
Can someone explain what this chart is supposed to be?
Charles Miller
What % of overall market volume is binance?
Lucas Anderson
About 20% of all volume trading in BTC is trading through USDT/BNB so it's at least 20% of the market, probably more because a lot of people on Binance are trading through BTC/USDT.
Jackson Reyes
not to mention binance is going to put stronger KYC. only reason i was on there was to buy link and no KYC. Im with drawing and using kyber from now on
Jace Taylor
I think you proved my point, alt marketcap decreased $10 billion in the same time that BTC pumped.
Jack Powell
This user get its. BTC has nowhere to go but down, unfortunately. It's gonna be fast and hard when it does.
>This page displays the number and size of the unconfirmed bitcoin transactions, also known as the transactions in the mempool. It gives a real-time view and shows how the mempool evolves over the time. The transactions are colored by the amount of fee they pay per byte. The data is generated from my full node and is updated every minute. Note that in bitcoin there is no global mempool; every node keeps its own set of unconfirmed transactions that it has seen. The mempool is also cleared when I reboot my node. The idea is based on the retired service bitcoinqueue.com.
The data is separated into different fee levels given in satoshi per bytes. The lowest colored stripe is for transactions that pay the lowest fee. Higher fee transactions are stacked on top of it. Since miners prefer high fee transactions, a new block usually only removes the top 1 MB from the queue. If a colored stripe persists over several hours without getting smaller, this means that transactions paying this amount of fee are not confirmed during this time, because there are higher paying transactions that take precedence. If a stripe on the bottom chart is much bigger than on the top chart, the transactions are larger than the average.
You can click on some fee level in the legend to hide all fee levels below that level. This way you can better see how many transactions are competing with that fee level.
Note that sizes include the segwit discount. So for the core chain, a block will always take at most 1 MB from the mempool, even if it is bigger than 1 MB, because the lower diagram already shows the size minus three quarter of the witness size. The segwit discount is also included when computing the fee level for a transaction. In case a transaction pays exactly the fee that defines the boundary between stripes, it is included in the higher stripe. Free transactions are not included, even if they make it into the mempool.
The solution is simple. We just keep binance locked forever. Then the bullrun can continue!
Elijah Gutierrez
The last green line shows alts going down over the past few days and BTC going up. At the exact same time all the money on Binance was locked. Are you blind?
Blake Cooper
CONFIRMED BY DOUBLE DUBS PRAISE KEK someone get cz on the line pronto this is it
Dominic Roberts
CONFIRMED BY QUADS THIS IS IT BINANCE IS NEVER OPENING ITS ACCOUNTS AGAIN THEN WE ARE BULL BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Julian Parker
Yeah I'm personally not worried about it at all, if anything it shows that ppl are willing to pay high fees to use btc instead of shitcoins. To me it's a good sign and I'm not worried at all the higher fees go the merrier.
Alexander Roberts
Compare the slopes dude, they are not the opposite of each other and that chart is in the making btc has much steamer slope
Brandon Green
LOL, I should get into mining thing.
William Jones
Well at least you didn't tell me to off myself this time. We'll see how it plays out but I expect alts to temporarily pump over the next few days and then everything to dump next week.
Julian Cox
It will probably stay almost full from now on with fee prices initially rising and then eventually stabilizing somewhere. This means the tx count will also stabilize and not go much higher from this point. All the other people who want to do transactions, but don't want to pay the fee, they will move to other coins.
Evan Barnes
We'll see. I'm expecting Coinbase will lock withdrawals next week as soon as Binance unlocks the money because they won't have the capital to handle the massive selloff. Either that or Binance will just keep the money locked longer.
Andrew Davis
Let me put it in simpler terms for you to understand. >We both have 100 dollars. The total market cap of our economy is 200$ >I give you 50$ from my 100$. >Did our market cap get more money and go up? >No. It's still 200$ There was no external new money coming into our economy despite your economy going up.
This is what's going on with Bitcoin at the moment which you can see in the charts. The initial spike in the market got us to 185 billion total market cap and we're now at 191 billion total market cap. That's only 6 billion increase in the TOTAL cap and Bitcoin has gone from ~5k to 6.3k during that. Bitcoin itself went from about 80 billion to 110 billion. You still think this is external money that's being injected into it instead of internal money getting shifted around and pumping BTC price? Don't let the bars of green let your feet get off the ground and fuck up your judgement. Unless we see a a ton of money suddenly flowing into the markets, then the only way is going to be down. Judging by the continuing alt apocalypse the market isn't getting any significant amount of new money flowing into it. If during the next correction the market doesn't rally back into alts then they're going to be in even deeper shit than now.
Benjamin Lee
I’m not reading the OP, but I stumbled upon a secret.
BTC is in danger due to underlying shenanigans. Make your exit point around 6.4k or 7k if you’re feeling really randy. We’ll hit 3, 2, and likely 1k before long. If triple digits are released expect institutional “crypto” coins to dominate the market e.g. Facebook (disgusting)
Anyway, good luck, and ignore me.
(´·ω·`)
Grayson Perry
>Ppl that don't want to pay high fees will move to other coins. Unless they really want to do transactions on btc and rising congestion kinda proves that.
I went thru that the last portion of the chart has much different slope. We will see what happens small drop is expected but we should overall continue to climb.
Brody Murphy
You guys are winning me over There's something fishy since the start of this run. I've been considering selling and waiting on the sidelines, but I abstained from acting purely on gut feeling. Your point makes sense, and the euphoria on Jow Forums seems out of place given general market feel
Luis Rivera
You should tripfag if you want people to ignore you. I, on the other hand, just sold 100k on the basis of your post. I just have to wait for Binance to reopen to close the deal.
Eli Rivera
How much is links moon attributed to all this? a..all.of it?
Nicholas Fisher
If this is the case (on my phone and dont feel like clumsy browsing to check) and the blocks are filling up i think theres an equal chance we are gonna see a huge alt season soon. When bitcoin runs out of steam from wringing money out of alts and becomes unusable due to fees, money may rush back into alts rather than be pulled out of the market. This will be compounded by the probability that people selling btc wont view tether as quite the safe haven it was and may hedge with alts.
Luke Barnes
I agree, this is one of two possibilities (and I think its why BAT and LINK mooned). The other possibility is that alts and BTC crash when people pull out of the market.
Kayden Bailey
Thanks for phrasing the situation better than I did, this is exactly what I was getting at. With no new money flowing in and an opportunity for a lot of money to flow out (via Binance unlocking) I don't see the market going anywhere but down.
Jack Collins
I 100% agree with this. BTC stops mooning this weekend and alts bounce hard. Then BTC goes down the toilet. I wonder if the whales are going to dump before Binance opens
